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5 hours ago, JohnC said:

I'm going to make a prediction that I know will be skewered for. VO is going to be a 25-30 goal scorer and have a good year for us. He's become the same type of whipping boy that was directed toward Mitts a year or two ago. I'm not claiming that he will be a part of this team beyond this year. But, as with Mitts, he is going to prove that the persistent scorn that he gets here will be proven to be off base. 

If Quinn didn't get hurt I would have a different view on his status. But because of that tough injury he will get an opportunity to show that he is an asset for this team. VO knows very well that there is a side of his game that he has to be more diligent about. He will do it and the critics will fade away. 

This statistic is for the snickering @LGR4GM: VO scored 28 goals last season. 

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15 minutes ago, JohnC said:

This statistic is for the snickering @LGR4GM: VO scored 28 goals last season. 

And what was his on ice goal differential? Asking since the "snickering" lgr didn't know VO had 28 entire goals. 

What's his xgf% or corsi% or eye test looking like?

I'll predict if, and that's a big IF, vo stays in Buffalo all season he had 22.5 goals or less. 

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5 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

And what was his on ice goal differential? Asking since the "snickering" lgr didn't know VO had 28 entire goals. 

What's his xgf% or corsi% or eye test looking like?

I'll predict if, and that's a big IF, vo stays in Buffalo all season he had 22.5 goals or less. 

I disagree with your goal expectation. We'll just have to wait and see. 

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Just so we're clear, I'm not really asking. I'm being snarky and know that his xgf% is negative, his corsi is positive, and his eye test is woof. He's replaceable and that time is now. 

1 minute ago, JohnC said:

I disagree with your goal expectation. We'll just have to wait and see. 

Wanna bet? 22.5 or less

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1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

Just so we're clear, I'm not really asking. I'm being snarky and know that his xgf% is negative, his corsi is positive, and his eye test is woof. He's replaceable and that time is now. 

Wanna bet? 22.5 or less

I don't bet. If you are right, then so be it. If I'm right, then so be it. I contribute a lot of $$$ to charity on my own. Much more than you do. So, I don't need or desire to contribute to any of your causes. 

I'm not proclaiming VO to be more of a player than what he is. He's on the team this year but odds are not the following year. He's scored 28 goals last year when his minutes were curtailed. It's not unreasonable to think that he won't be in the same goal range this season, especially if he gets some PP time on the second unit. Again, we shall see.  

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19 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I don't bet. If you are right, then so be it. If I'm right, then so be it. I contribute a lot of $$$ to charity on my own. Much more than you do. So, I don't need or desire to contribute to any of your causes. 

I'm not proclaiming VO to be more of a player than what he is. He's on the team this year but odds are not the following year. He's scored 28 goals last year when his minutes were curtailed. It's not unreasonable to think that he won't be in the same goal range this season, especially if he gets some PP time on the second unit. Again, we shall see.  

Couple of things. The first, this is strangest "flex" attempt I've ever seen. 

Second, his sh% last year was 3.6% higher than his career average and his total number of shots almost exactly the same. So unless he continues to shoot above his average and ups his shot total, he will regress back to the average which is 22.5 goals. I personally think he'll get pp2 time but it won't be enough to make up for the decreased 5v5 time he will get. 

I also don't believe olofsson is a Sabre by March. 

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10 hours ago, JohnC said:

I'm going to make a prediction that I know will be skewered for. VO is going to be a 25-30 goal scorer and have a good year for us. He's become the same type of whipping boy that was directed toward Mitts a year or two ago. I'm not claiming that he will be a part of this team beyond this year. But, as with Mitts, he is going to prove that the persistent scorn that he gets here will be proven to be off base. 

If Quinn didn't get hurt I would have a different view on his status. But because of that tough injury he will get an opportunity to show that he is an asset for this team. VO knows very well that there is a side of his game that he has to be more diligent about. He will do it and the critics will fade away. 

The thing is, when Mittelstadt was a whipping boy last year, you could still see that he was backchecking well, winning battles near his own net, and also forechecking well, winning battles near the boards.  The big issue was, after he won the puck in his own end, he'd skate the puck to the boards because he didn't see an outlet pass (whether it wasn't there or he simply didn't see it is a fair Q, but recall that during the entirely of that time, 1 of his outlets was Olofsson so ...).  The nearly as big of an issue was, after he won the puck in the offensive zone he couldn't get it away from the boards as he'd typically have 2 defenders on him and he didn't see an outlet (again, whether the outlet was there or not, he didn't see one and one of his outlets was Olofsson so ...).  Through much of that dark time for him, his other winger was Asplund who IIRC was mentioned as being waived to the Swamp Cats farm club this past week.

When Jost joined his line, Mittelstadt suddenly wasn't the blackhole of puck possession.  He not only got the puck, he moved it to a teammate.

Olofsson doesn't often win puck battles.  In fact, he often not only doesn't win the puck battle he turns the wrong way when he's upon the puck carrier.  If he'd stop cold in front of him (which he really shouldn't do) he'd create more pressure than what he currently often does.  It SHOULD be something he can correct fairly readily, but it doesn't really seem to be something that he actually does correct.  IF Olofsson could pay attention to the defensive details of the game, and he actually did to a reasonable degree battling through his hand/wrist injury 2 seasons ago, he could be a guy they consider keeping beyond Quinn's return.  But, he knew he didn't have a quality shot then and also knew that if he wasn't doing something in a 2 way vein he wouldn't even be playing.  Really thought that he'd take what he'd learned the previous year and become a pretty decent forward last year now that his shot was back.  (Missed it by THAT much, Chief.)  He was even getting opportunities to protect a lead w/ the goalie pulled and buried a few EN early in the year.  But that was about it for defensive zone focus.  And his line was really getting trashed because they collectively were bad in their own end.

You may be right, maybe he's at his "find a spiritual guide" moment.  But, really doubt it because until he shows he's there, won't expect it because it never showed last season, at all.  Which is a darn shame because he not only has a great 1 timer, he can also thread a pass pretty well too.  When everybody was oohing and aahing at Reinhart's goal scoring exploits as the 1C, who do you think was feeding him for those shots?  None other than last years #1 whipping boy.  (Apologies to Bryson, as that might be his deserved title.)

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One thing about Mitts is that he has basically improved every 40 or so games he played in the NHL and last year was no exception.  I know I maybe in the minority here about this, but I’m expecting him to take another leap in development.  I’m looking for 20 to 25g with at least 50 assists.  

The big off-season question is how much and how long will his new contract be?  

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7 hours ago, Taro T said:

The thing is, when Mittelstadt was a whipping boy last year, you could still see that he was backchecking well, winning battles near his own net, and also forechecking well, winning battles near the boards.  The big issue was, after he won the puck in his own end, he'd skate the puck to the boards because he didn't see an outlet pass (whether it wasn't there or he simply didn't see it is a fair Q, but recall that during the entirely of that time, 1 of his outlets was Olofsson so ...).  The nearly as big of an issue was, after he won the puck in the offensive zone he couldn't get it away from the boards as he'd typically have 2 defenders on him and he didn't see an outlet (again, whether the outlet was there or not, he didn't see one and one of his outlets was Olofsson so ...).  Through much of that dark time for him, his other winger was Asplund who IIRC was mentioned as being waived to the Swamp Cats farm club this past week.

When Jost joined his line, Mittelstadt suddenly wasn't the blackhole of puck possession.  He not only got the puck, he moved it to a teammate.

Olofsson doesn't often win puck battles.  In fact, he often not only doesn't win the puck battle he turns the wrong way when he's upon the puck carrier.  If he'd stop cold in front of him (which he really shouldn't do) he'd create more pressure than what he currently often does.  It SHOULD be something he can correct fairly readily, but it doesn't really seem to be something that he actually does correct.  IF Olofsson could pay attention to the defensive details of the game, and he actually did to a reasonable degree battling through his hand/wrist injury 2 seasons ago, he could be a guy they consider keeping beyond Quinn's return.  But, he knew he didn't have a quality shot then and also knew that if he wasn't doing something in a 2 way vein he wouldn't even be playing.  Really thought that he'd take what he'd learned the previous year and become a pretty decent forward last year now that his shot was back.  (Missed it by THAT much, Chief.)  He was even getting opportunities to protect a lead w/ the goalie pulled and buried a few EN early in the year.  But that was about it for defensive zone focus.  And his line was really getting trashed because they collectively were bad in their own end.

You may be right, maybe he's at his "find a spiritual guide" moment.  But, really doubt it because until he shows he's there, won't expect it because it never showed last season, at all.  Which is a darn shame because he not only has a great 1 timer, he can also thread a pass pretty well too.  When everybody was oohing and aahing at Reinhart's goal scoring exploits as the 1C, who do you think was feeding him for those shots?  None other than last years #1 whipping boy.  (Apologies to Bryson, as that might be his deserved title.)

 

6 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

One thing about Mitts is that he has basically improved every 40 or so games he played in the NHL and last year was no exception.  I know I maybe in the minority here about this, but I’m expecting him to take another leap in development.  I’m looking for 20 to 25g with at least 50 assists.  

The big off-season question is how much and how long will his new contract be?  

There is no question that VO is a one-dimensional player. I've never said otherwise. It is acknowledged that it is likely that he will be gone after this season. The goal projection that I'm making about him is very reasonable, not outlandish. Last year, he scored 28 goals after his playing time was curtailed, and his PP time was also diminished. If you factor in that Quinn probably will miss a large chunk of the season, then that puts VO in a better position to play more.  

Both of you are aware that certain players get tarnished with a label, and then the stench of that label is very difficult to remove. Do you remember the lamenting about Skinner and his defensive deficiencies and how it would be difficult to give him away because of his expensive contract? Now he is one of our core players. The same lamenting happened with Mitts and Joki. 

Again, I'm comfortable in predicting that this same player who scored 28 goals last year will score at least 25 goals this season.  I'm also comfortable in saying that like Skinner, he will put more effort into the defensive side of the game. He, like Skinner, will not be accomplished at that side of the game but the effort will be more apparent. 

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12 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Couple of things. The first, this is strangest "flex" attempt I've ever seen. 

Second, his sh% last year was 3.6% higher than his career average and his total number of shots almost exactly the same. So unless he continues to shoot above his average and ups his shot total, he will regress back to the average which is 22.5 goals. I personally think he'll get pp2 time but it won't be enough to make up for the decreased 5v5 time he will get. 

I also don't believe olofsson is a Sabre by March. 

I wasn't flexing. I was responding to your kids in the schoolyard response about betting over who was right or wrong. That type of response is so childish. 

Will Olofsson be a Sabre in March? He could be gone or not. So what?

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@johnc I applaud your willingness to stand up for VO.  I withstood the storm of Mitts critics and was vindicated.  Maybe you will be as well.  

Skinner, Thompson, and Mitts are 3 recent strongly held negative opinions that turned out completely wrong.  Now we have VO, Bryson and UPL.  None of the early returns for the 3 look all that promising, but there is a long season ahead. 

PS you were sadly correct on KA’s off-season goalie plan.  Hopefully keeping Comrie and/or UPL doesn’t turn out to be the team’s Achille’s Heel. 

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28 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I wasn't flexing. I was responding to your kids in the schoolyard response about betting over who was right or wrong. That type of response is so childish. 

Will Olofsson be a Sabre in March? He could be gone or not. So what?

Tired Downton Abbey GIF by Sky España

"So childish" hrrumph

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11 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

@johnc I applaud your willingness to stand up for VO.  I withstood the storm of Mitts critics and was vindicated.  Maybe you will be as well.  

Skinner, Thompson, and Mitts are 3 recent strongly held negative opinions that turned out completely wrong.  Now we have VO, Bryson and UPL.  None of the early returns for the 3 look all that promising, but there is a long season ahead. 

PS you were sadly correct on KA’s off-season goalie plan.  Hopefully keeping Comrie and/or UPL don’t turn out to be the team’s Achille’s Heel. 

A few thoughts here. Mitts has shown multiple times in the last 3 years short stretches of great play. Injuries have often derailed that, so there was evidence that he could be better. I still do have a small question if he can really and truly be that over a full season but I hope so. Mitts was also 22-24 during the timeframe you are talking about and Olofsson is now 28. A 22 year old player getting better, makes perfect sense to me. A 28 year old better getting better, less likely. If VO was new to the league or had some injury that precluded him from playing better, sure, we could argue we haven't seen him at 100%. However, I think we have seen his best and I also think he is not well suited for Granato's system.

VO is not particularly fast or agile on his skates. His entire game severely lacks deception or manipulative elements. The higher end hockey IQ needed that we see in Benson is not present. VO does not possess great hands. He is not particularly big, in fact, VO is a whopping 1 inch and 12lbs bigger than Zach Benson and yet this board never seems to question his size. His defensive game is similarly bland in comparison to his offensive game. I think what VO is, is well established. He is a 22g, 15a floatey player with deficiencies that might contribute lower in the lineup and on the PP. If you need goals as a team, he might be an option. The one thing he has is a great shot, but teams know that so they make sure they shadow into his shooting lane because he is not a threat passing wise and he isn't going to make a move to get into a better position to shoot. 

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10 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

@johnc I applaud your willingness to stand up for VO.  I withstood the storm of Mitts critics and was vindicated.  Maybe you will be as well.  

Skinner, Thompson, and Mitts are 3 recent strongly held negative opinions that turned out completely wrong.  Now we have VO, Bryson and UPL.  None of the early returns for the 3 look all that promising, but there is a long season ahead. 

PS you were sadly correct on KA’s off-season goalie plan.  Hopefully keeping Comrie and/or UPL don’t turn out to be the team’s Achille’s Heel. 

Don't lump my view on VO with Bryson. UPL is in a different category and situation. I'm not exaggerating the virtues of the player in question without acknowledging his limitations. Everyone can see what they are. The primary point that I'm making on this issue is even with his manifest limitations, he was able to score 28 goals last year while his playing time was curtailed. So, on this year's team I don't think it is unreasonable to project him scoring between 25-30 goals. The issue comes down to whether he is able to get enough playing time. That will be based on his play. 

You may be said about how the goalie staffing turned out this year but I'm not. It's better than it was last year. As much as you are concerned about the goalie situation, you should be just as concerned with how in general the team plays better defensively. Those two issues are inextricably linked. On those two critical issues I'm optimistic because there will be more of a focus on them than before. 

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6 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Don't lump my view on VO with Bryson. UPL is in a different category and situation. I'm not exaggerating the virtues of the player in question without acknowledging his limitations. Everyone can see what they are. The primary point that I'm making on this issue is even with his manifest limitations, he was able to score 28 goals last year while his playing time was curtailed. So, on this year's team I don't think it is unreasonable to project him scoring between 25-30 goals. The issue comes down to whether he is able to get enough playing time. That will be based on his play. 

You may be said about how the goalie staffing turned out this year but I'm not. It's better than it was last year. As much as you are concerned about the goalie situation, you should be just as concerned with how in general the team plays better defensively. Those two issues are inextricably linked. On those two critical issues I'm optimistic because there will be more of a focus on them than before. 

Victor Olofsson has only ever scored above 20 goals once in his life. So I personally do not think it is reasonable to project to 25-30 goals unless as I said, his sh% stays artificially high (possible) or he ups the number of shots he takes (unlikely). His goals per 60mins was 1.6 last year, well up from his typical 1.1-1.2 g60 numbers that he had. The interesting part is well that may be true, his pts 60 plummeted. He went from 2.7 down to 2.2 pts/60. The reason for this is mainly tied to the fact he is not a particularly efficient passer or skater. So he is not leading a rush or manipulating a D to open a passing lane. He is a very straight forward player. 

But I've said all I can on the matter. Time will tell. 

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3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Victor Olofsson has only ever scored above 20 goals once in his life.

This is a bit disingenuous.  He has played 4 seasons in the NHL and scored 20 or more in 3 of the four. A few of these seasons were also limited by Covid or injury.  The first season he scored 20 was in only 54 games.  For his career he is scoring at a pace of 26 goals per 82 games played.  In fact, last season 21 of his 28 goals were at EV and represented a career high.

While I also question his ability to improve defensively, he has made strides as an EV scorer and does have good speed.  He is also on the contract year and that often provides huge motivation to get better.

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9 hours ago, Taro T said:

The thing is, when Mittelstadt was a whipping boy last year, you could still see that he was backchecking well, winning battles near his own net, and also forechecking well, winning battles near the boards.  The big issue was, after he won the puck in his own end, he'd skate the puck to the boards because he didn't see an outlet pass (whether it wasn't there or he simply didn't see it is a fair Q, but recall that during the entirely of that time, 1 of his outlets was Olofsson so ...).  The nearly as big of an issue was, after he won the puck in the offensive zone he couldn't get it away from the boards as he'd typically have 2 defenders on him and he didn't see an outlet (again, whether the outlet was there or not, he didn't see one and one of his outlets was Olofsson so ...).  Through much of that dark time for him, his other winger was Asplund who IIRC was mentioned as being waived to the Swamp Cats farm club this past week.

 

The sentiment that Mitts is a tough winner of puck battles has been expressed a fair amount here recently.  I'm here to take exception.  IMHO he's gone from completely ineffective in this regard to average.  He's far from some monster on the boards who comes out of every scrum with the puck.

As for his historical issues, there have been quite a few, but IMHO the biggest issue was consistently poor decision-making with the puck.  He'd get it in the neutral zone and skate it inexplicably into traffic, pass it where his teammate wasn't or think he could beat a defender one-on-one and immediately lose the puck to the defender.  That issue improved, like the rest of his game, in the 2nd half of last season.  Will that improvement continue?  DM seems to think so.

We'll see.

 

8 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

One thing about Mitts is that he has basically improved every 40 or so games he played in the NHL and last year was no exception.  I know I maybe in the minority here about this, but I’m expecting him to take another leap in development.  I’m looking for 20 to 25g with at least 50 assists.  

The big off-season question is how much and how long will his new contract be?  

58 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

@johnc I applaud your willingness to stand up for VO.  I withstood the storm of Mitts critics and was vindicated.  Maybe you will be as well.  

Skinner, Thompson, and Mitts are 3 recent strongly held negative opinions that turned out completely wrong.  Now we have VO, Bryson and UPL.  None of the early returns for the 3 look all that promising, but there is a long season ahead. 

PS you were sadly correct on KA’s off-season goalie plan.  Hopefully keeping Comrie and/or UPL doesn’t turn out to be the team’s Achille’s Heel. 

First, it's way too soon for the victory lap on Mitts.  He's played 5 NHL seasons and had one good half-season.  His early years were spent in a highly dysfunctional environment, and I think everyone runs his own race, so I think the Sabres were right not to give up on him.  I kinda expect him to continue to improve -- but there will be more pressure on him and the entire team this year.  He may or may not be up to the task.

As for a contract, I could've missed it, but I don't think KA has said anything about an extension for Mitts, who is an RFA after this season -- unlike Power and Dahlin, whom KA has publicly stated the team is trying to sign.  I'd guess that KA wants to sign Mitts, but at a fairly limited number in term and AAV, and probably not until Power and Dahlin are done.

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12 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

had one good half-season.

That's completely untrue.  He was our best forward after Granato took over (17 pts in the last 22 games that season) and last season he was good all year and had a great in the 2nd half.  Last season he scored at a 50 point pace in the 1st half and then at a nearly 70 pt pace in the second half.

Here is his approx 40 games splits for his career in pts/gp: .28, .38, .29, .59, .48, .61, and 83.  That's a pretty steady improvement, especially given RK's tenure and a hand injury that limited him for an entire season.  I expect that progression to continue.  

Management clearly thinks he is up for the task.  Look at the line DG created for him and DG's insistence that Mitts play center.

As to his contract, I wrote that it will be a discussion for next off-season.  

 

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28 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

That's completely untrue.  He was our best forward after Granato took over (17 pts in the last 22 games that season) and last season he was good all year and had a great in the 2nd half.  Last season he scored at a 50 point pace in the 1st half and then at a nearly 70 pt pace in the second half.

Here is his approx 40 games splits for his career in pts/gp: .28, .38, .29, .59, .48, .61, and 83.  That's a pretty steady improvement, especially given RK's tenure and a hand injury that limited him for an entire season.  I expect that progression to continue.  

Management clearly thinks he is up for the task.  Look at the line DG created for him and DG's insistence that Mitts play center.

As to his contract, I wrote that it will be a discussion for next off-season.  

 

So he put up some garbage-time stats for a rock-bottom team as they ran for the bus a couple of years ago, and that means he was a good player at that time?  Even though the next season, he had 6 goals in 40 games?

His point production in his 4 NHL seasons before last year:  25, 9, 22, 19.

Last year, he had 1 goal in October, 2 in December, 0 in January and 1 in March.

Again:  he looked like he had finally arrived by the stretch run last year.  That is potentially a very promising development for the team.  But it is pure #hammymath to claim that he's been a good player all along.

 

 

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1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

First, it's way too soon for the victory lap on Mitts.  He's played 5 NHL seasons and had one good half-season.  His early years were spent in a highly dysfunctional environment, and I think everyone runs his own race, so I think the Sabres were right not to give up on him.  I kinda expect him to continue to improve -- but there will be more pressure on him and the entire team this year.  He may or may not be up to the task.

As for a contract, I could've missed it, but I don't think KA has said anything about an extension for Mitts, who is an RFA after this season -- unlike Power and Dahlin, whom KA has publicly stated the team is trying to sign.  I'd guess that KA wants to sign Mitts, but at a fairly limited number in term and AAV, and probably not until Power and Dahlin are done.

I have to agree with @GASabresIUFAN on this one.

I think Mitts has shown fairly steady improvement, interrupted by periodic injuries.  His first two years, he was pretty terrible, the next two he was decent, then last season he was better than decent.

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3 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

So he put up some garbage-time stats for a rock-bottom team as they ran for the bus a couple of years ago, and that means he was a good player at that time?  Even though the next season, he had 6 goals in 40 games?

His point production in his 4 NHL seasons before last year:  25, 9, 22, 19.

Last year, he had 1 goal in October, 2 in December, 0 in January and 1 in March.

Again:  he looked like he had finally arrived by the stretch run last year.  That is potentially a very promising development for the team.  But it is pure #hammymath to claim that he's been a good player all along.


Why are you focusing on goals for a players whose strengths are playmaking a puck possession?

And listing out point totals while ignoring the number of games played?  Commonnmann 

His point production for his 5 NHL  seasons:

Pts/Game: 0.32, 0.29, 0.54, 0.48, 0.72

Pts/60: 1.4, 1.4, 2.0, 1.8, 2.7

Pts/60 ES: 1.0, 1.2, 1.5, 1.4, 2.3

Looks like an upward trajectory to me.

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10 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

One thing about Mitts is that he has basically improved every 40 or so games he played in the NHL and last year was no exception.  I know I maybe in the minority here about this, but I’m expecting him to take another leap in development.  I’m looking for 20 to 25g with at least 50 assists.  

The big off-season question is how much and how long will his new contract be?  

Unless Thompson is down for an extended period of time, it is hard to see Mitts getting to a 70-75 point season without a ton of PP1 time. 

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4 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

His point production in his 4 NHL seasons before last year:  25, 9 (31 games), 22 (41 games), 19 (40 games).  Fixed

Not one comment by me or anyone else said he has been good all along.  All we have said is that he has made significant and nearly constant progress since being sentdown.  The numbers bear this out. 

Also showing point totals without context is also a bit disingenuous.  Scoring 22 pts in 41 games is a 44 pt pace.  Putting up 19 pts in 40 games (a 39 pt pace) with a hand injury is proper context.  

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