Buffalo Bills 2023 Thread

[That Aud Smell]

Quessenberry (sp?) cut. They must be planning to sign a FA OT or trade for one.

Upgrading at MLB and QB2 also seems possible.

They were in on the SF QB - what’s his name - Trey Lance (?). (Unsure and not looking it up - sounds like a member of a 90s boy band.)

[GASabresIUFAN]

3 hours ago, Taro T said:

Basham's a Jint.

Apparently a late round pick swap accompanies the move.

 

 

3 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

Nice job Kev.

I hope this is sarcasm.  Another wasted 2nd rd pick.

[Eleven]

59 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

Upgrading at MLB and QB2 also seems possible.

necessary

[Gatorman0519]

As much as Beane has built a SB contender, he has gaffed his way from getting us over the top with some suspect drafting since. Ford, Basham. Epenessa, and Elam are completely wasted picks top picks.  There were players available that could of got us over the top.  Compare to what KC did to address their needs, made some bold moves, and won a SB. Beane is also spending too much on aging players and we are headed for cap hell. 

[Eleven]

16 minutes ago, Gatorman0519 said:

As much as Beane has built a SB contender, he has gaffed his way from getting us over the top with some suspect drafting since. Ford, Basham. Epenessa, and Elam are completely wasted picks top picks.  There were players available that could of got us over the top.  Compare to what KC did to address their needs, made some bold moves, and won a SB. Beane is also spending too much on aging players and we are headed for cap hell. 

The drafting is outrageously horrible.  Fire every scout and start over, or fire Beane and start over.

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:

Quessenberry (sp?) cut.

Because he is awful.  
 

Apparently the Bills have also cut AJ Klein.  I guess they are throwing the kids into the deep end and hope they swim.  

Edited August 29, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[Porous Five Hole]

6 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Because he is awful.  
 

Apparently the Bills have also cut AJ Klein.  I guess they are throwing the kids into the deep end and hope they swim.  

I’m guessing that since Klein doesn’t need to clear waivers, they cut him and told him to hang out in his car in the parking lot for a bit. This way, they can put someone on in-season IR and buy an extra roster spot on the 53 for at least four weeks. 

[Randall Flagg]

52 minutes ago, Gatorman0519 said:

As much as Beane has built a SB contender, he has gaffed his way from getting us over the top with some suspect drafting since. Ford, Basham. Epenessa, and Elam are completely wasted picks top picks.  There were players available that could of got us over the top.  Compare to what KC did to address their needs, made some bold moves, and won a SB. Beane is also spending too much on aging players and we are headed for cap hell. 

35 minutes ago, Eleven said:

The drafting is outrageously horrible.  Fire every scout and start over, or fire Beane and start over.

This was a draft analysis done from the 2018 through the 2021 drafts. The Bills finished 3rd. They have finished near the top every single time I've seen someone analyze drafts since Beane got here. Second round woes aside (their 2nd rounder this year looks like he can develop into a pro bowler, and quickly) Bills fans have untethered themselves from reality over the last 8 months

Yes, there exist examples of physically painful picks when player X or player Y is available. That's how it works. When you quantify the value you draft regardless of this, the Bills do well. It's why they're ***** elite for ****'s sake

[Flashsabre]

18 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

This was a draft analysis done from the 2018 through the 2021 drafts. The Bills finished 3rd. They have finished near the top every single time I've seen someone analyze drafts since Beane got here. Second round woes aside (their 2nd rounder this year looks like he can develop into a pro bowler, and quickly) Bills fans have untethered themselves from reality over the last 8 months

Yes, there exist examples of physically painful picks when player X or player Y is available. That's how it works. When you quantify the value you draft regardless of this, the Bills do well. It's why they're ***** elite for ****'s sake

Stop posting facts. It ruins people’s narratives😀

[Broken Ankles]

17 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

This was a draft analysis done from the 2018 through the 2021 drafts. The Bills finished 3rd. They have finished near the top every single time I've seen someone analyze drafts since Beane got here. Second round woes aside (their 2nd rounder this year looks like he can develop into a pro bowler, and quickly) Bills fans have untethered themselves from reality over the last 8 months

Yes, there exist examples of physically painful picks when player X or player Y is available. That's how it works. When you quantify the value you draft regardless of this, the Bills do well. It's why they're ***** elite for ****'s sake

Love to see a revised copy through 2022.  The next guy picked immediately after BB is the Center for the GBP and already ranking mid level of the league after 2 years starting.  The results of that analysis could be carried by 2018. Outside of hitting on guys like Dane and Bass in late rounds, not many from 2020-2022 will be resigned or make the team.  Borderline players like Knox and Oliver were signed to deals that could be viewed as overvalued. I’m not doom and gloom by any stretch, but I definitely see us taking a step back as the younger players from drafts 20-22 are not over achieving on rookie contracts.  

[Randall Flagg]

9 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

Love to see a revised copy through 2022.  The next guy picked immediately after BB is the Center for the GBP and already ranking mid level of the league after 2 years starting.  The results of that analysis could be carried by 2018. Outside of hitting on guys like Dane and Bass in late rounds, not many from 2020-2022 will be resigned or make the team.  Borderline players like Knox and Oliver were signed to deals that could be viewed as overvalued. I’m not doom and gloom by any stretch, but I definitely see us taking a step back as the younger players from drafts 20-22 are not over achieving on rookie contracts.  

You can't just name all pros taken after your guys, because every single team in the league does that, you have to analyze how often your team does that and has their players fail relative to the rest of the league. And everytime someone does this, the Bills look pretty good. 

And 2022 would become just 20% of the analysis. Even if it was 0 for 7 (it's not) it wouldn't drop the Bills appreciably far in an analysis that it is such a small part of

[Eleven]

1 hour ago, Randall Flagg said:

This was a draft analysis done from the 2018 through the 2021 drafts. The Bills finished 3rd. They have finished near the top every single time I've seen someone analyze drafts since Beane got here. Second round woes aside (their 2nd rounder this year looks like he can develop into a pro bowler, and quickly) Bills fans have untethered themselves from reality over the last 8 months

Yes, there exist examples of physically painful picks when player X or player Y is available. That's how it works. When you quantify the value you draft regardless of this, the Bills do well. It's why they're ***** elite for ****'s sake

What does it even mean?  That some guy thought that the Bills did the 6th best job with their first round picks in those years, the 28th best job with the second round pick, etc.?  If that's what it is, well, first, it's subjective, second, it doesn't fully cover the relevant time period, and third, it's skewed (for first round) because of Allen.  If it's something else, please tell me.

[LGR4GM]

2 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

This was a draft analysis done from the 2018 through the 2021 drafts. The Bills finished 3rd. They have finished near the top every single time I've seen someone analyze drafts since Beane got here. Second round woes aside (their 2nd rounder this year looks like he can develop into a pro bowler, and quickly) Bills fans have untethered themselves from reality over the last 8 months

Yes, there exist examples of physically painful picks when player X or player Y is available. That's how it works. When you quantify the value you draft regardless of this, the Bills do well. It's why they're ***** elite for ****'s sake

This was a draft analysis by... who? Can I see how they came to these conclusions? Or do I just have to accept an author-less chart with no methodology posted to an internet forum?

1 hour ago, Randall Flagg said:

You can't just name all pros taken after your guys, because every single team in the league does that, you have to analyze how often your team does that and has their players fail relative to the rest of the league. And everytime someone does this, the Bills look pretty good. 

And 2022 would become just 20% of the analysis. Even if it was 0 for 7 (it's not) it wouldn't drop the Bills appreciably far in an analysis that it is such a small part of

Ok, can you post some other examples that don't include the Allen draft? 

[Claude Balls]

Can someone please show me a GM that has hit on every draft pick? Of course Beane has whiffed on some picks, but so has every other ***** GM. It's not that hard to understand. The draft is a crapshoot. How many people thought Allen was a bust?? I love all the armchair GMs that think they could do better. I mean Belichick is one if the worst when it comes to drafting, but he's won and gets praise all the time.

Edited August 30, 2023 by Claude Balls

[That Aud Smell]

6 hours ago, Claude Balls said:

Belichick is one if the worst when it comes to drafting, but he's won and gets praise all the time.

Lol - this feels true and is funny if so. Amazing what having an elite QB will do for a GM. The Patriots presumably did well with bringing in FA’s? They certainly found a hidden gem with Edelman.

This Beane draft record debate is begging for good data analysis. Surely it exists?

[Night Train]

I get the post season issue last year... but 13-3 was our regular season record. No narrative there. 

Draft + Vet FA + giving a specific core good contracts to stay. 

I'm hoping for 11 wins and a post season spot with a far more difficult schedule. Keeping it real. Sure beats those roughly 20 years of nothing. 

I'm sure if the Sabres take another step forward and start losing in the 1st ,2nd round of the playoffs, we'll read many calling to clean out the front office with some world class chest beating. 

Edited August 30, 2023 by Night Train

[LGR4GM]

9 hours ago, Claude Balls said:

Can someone please show me a GM that has hit on every draft pick? Of course Beane has whiffed on some picks, but so has every other ***** GM. It's not that hard to understand. The draft is a crapshoot. How many people thought Allen was a bust?? I love all the armchair GMs that think they could do better. I mean Belichick is one if the worst when it comes to drafting, but he's won and gets praise all the time.

Drafting and continuing to waste assets on rb and de while basically ignoring the offensive line is a major reason for ppls concern. 

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

20 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:

Quessenberry (sp?) cut. They must be planning to sign a FA OT or trade for one.

Upgrading at MLB and QB2 also seems possible.

They were in on the SF QB - what’s his name - Trey Lance (?). (Unsure and not looking it up - sounds like a member of a 90s boy band.)

You got your OL replacement.  The Bills sign German Ifedi formerly a 1sr rd pick and recently cut by the Lions. https://billswire.usatoday.com/2023/08/30/buffalo-bills-sign-germain-ifedi-nfl/

[That Aud Smell]

Just now, GASabresIUFAN said:

You got your OL replacement.  The Bills sign German Ifedi formerly a 1sr rd pick and recently cut by the Lions. https://billswire.usatoday.com/2023/08/30/buffalo-bills-sign-germain-ifedi-nfl/

Thanks for the heads up. He's gotta be better than Quessenberry (sp?). I hear that the Lions have a good team/roster, so the fact that he got cut there may allow for the possibility that he's decent.

[Randall Flagg]

18 hours ago, Eleven said:

What does it even mean?  That some guy thought that the Bills did the 6th best job with their first round picks in those years, the 28th best job with the second round pick, etc.?  If that's what it is, well, first, it's subjective, second, it doesn't fully cover the relevant time period, and third, it's skewed (for first round) because of Allen.  If it's something else, please tell me.

 

17 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

This was a draft analysis by... who? Can I see how they came to these conclusions? Or do I just have to accept an author-less chart with no methodology posted to an internet forum?

Ok, can you post some other examples that don't include the Allen draft? 

I just scalped this picture from Twitter but it was a legit study of some sort. I know the ESPN one (roughly same range, put the Bills FIRST IN THE NFL) quantified it by judging how good your players were relative to the average player taken at that spot in the draft. Again, I've seen about 20 of these over the last few years and they all wind up putting the Bills in very good light. 

There are arguments to be made that the Bills need to get better at draft-adjacent things, like what Liger hints at - screwing up the DL for a few years means they keep needing to dip back into that well with premium picks and big free agent bucks, which isn't ideal because other parts of the roster take a hit. I have no issue with agreeing with that. But fans who blanket declare beane to be bad at drafting, which appears to be the general consensus, aren't right, and their reasoning is lazy because it ignores what the baseline is 

And I'm not ignoring the ***** Allen draft, man. It's the most important pick you can make and they hit a grand slam. "Don't count that" gtfo lmao. Would I be allowed to remove every team's best pick too?

 

Edited August 30, 2023 by Randall Flagg

[Randall Flagg]

Especially when people exactly like you (and me) hated the pick so much 

Edited August 30, 2023 by Randall Flagg

[Eleven]

21 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Especially when people exactly like you (and me) hated the pick so much 

That's exactly why it should be given less weight, frankly.  Other than Mel Kiper (who gets a LOT wrong), draft pundits (who also get a LOT wrong) panned it.  Beane got very, very lucky there.  And I'm glad he did.  But let's also not forget that Mahomes was right there for the Bills the year before (I do not think Beane had been hired yet, though), and while the Bills got an excellent CB out of that, it's not really the same as a QB with two Super Bowl rings.  (I believe the other returns from the trade--Edmunds and then some complicated thing with the Rams that I can't quite trace--are gone.)

So great.  Beane drafted Allen.  He hasn't done very well since, regardless of what some inscrutable chart says.

Edited August 30, 2023 by Eleven

[GASabresIUFAN]

19 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

 

I just scalped this picture from Twitter but it was a legit study of some sort. I know the ESPN one (roughly same range, put the Bills FIRST IN THE NFL) quantified it by judging how good your players were relative to the average player taken at that spot in the draft. Again, I've seen about 20 of these over the last few years and they all wind up putting the Bills in very good light. 

There are arguments to be made that the Bills need to get better at draft-adjacent things, like what Liger hints at - screwing up the DL for a few years means they keep needing to dip back into that well with premium picks and big free agent bucks, which isn't ideal because other parts of the roster take a hit. I have no issue with agreeing with that. But fans who blanket declare beane to be bad at drafting, which appears to be the general consensus, aren't right, and their reasoning is lazy because it ignores what the baseline is 

And I'm not ignoring the ***** Allen draft, man. It's the most important pick you can make and they hit a grand slam. "Don't count that" gtfo lmao. Would I be allowed to remove every team's best pick too?

 

The problem with any draft evaluation is separating Busts from depth players from starters from stars.  Beane has been very good at finding depth players like Hamlin, Dane Jackson, and Saron Neal, and nominal starters, but outside of Allen and maybe Edmunds what star player has he found?  Rousseau was a nice pick and a starter, but Spenser Brown is a starter only by necessity.  Knox regressed last year.   Ed Oliver is solid but not exactly a star.  However, he also gave us Ford, Moss, Basham, Espensa, Elam, and even Singletary and Gabe Davis.  These guys are mostly busts or starters out of necessity but don't really elevate the team.

[Eleven]

6 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

However, he also gave us Ford, Moss, Basham, Espensa, Elam, and even Singletary and Gabe Davis.  These guys are mostly busts or starters out of necessity but don't really elevate the team.

How many of them are even on the team?  How many will be in two years?  Gabe Davis has to be the worst WR2 in the league.  Elam is tenuous.  Moss, Ford, Basham, Singletary, already gone.  I'm sure Beane is very happy for the late round picks he got for them.  Epenesa is ok--solid for what he does.

Edited August 30, 2023 by Eleven

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 minutes ago, Eleven said:

How many of them are even on the team?  How many will be in two years?  Gabe Davis has to be the worst WR2 in the league.  Elam is tenuous.  Moss, Ford, Basham, Singletary, already gone.  I'm sure Beane is very happy for the late round picks he got for them.

I expect Davis, Elam, and Espensa to be gone by next season.  Davis could have a great year and even then he'll be too expensive to keep.  Elam could get a 3rd year, because he's cheap, but if Benford has a good season, they'll be no reason to keep him.