Face it, the plan for next year is another tank

[Brawndo]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Actually it's not the volume of the assets that I focused on, it's where they are in terms of being able to play.

Girgs and Risto and Girgorenko and Zadorov were tossed to the wolves as teenagers in 2013-15. Quinn and Power and Peterka and Rosen shouldn't be.

Dahlin, Joki, Mitts, Cozens etc. aren't entering next year as raw rookies, but as guys who have already been developed and have some basic understanding of life as an NHL pro. We had no one with the upside of Dahlin or Cozens in 2013.

And instead of TWO years dedicated to the sole purpose of losing as many games as possible with all the damage that does, we get one year (fingers crossed) that should be one big 82-game teachable moment where the goal is steady, measurable improvement and team-building that provides the proper foundation for increased success each year to come, with proper environment for the guys following to join when they are ready.

And if it results in another top-3 pick in 11 months, great. If not, that's great too. It means that our guys developed.

 

30 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Usually because each is trying to wrestle the conversation over to different elements of the same issue. 😄

Whether Girgs or Cozens quite qualifies or not doesn’t respond to my overall point. And I certainly feel like young players could be impacted negatively by a ton of losses as well, and that they need veteran support. There is no debate from me there.

All I am basically saying is the group of U23 Sabres right now is significantly deeper, more talented and more prepared than the group of the same in July of 2013 and I think that puts us in a better position to avoid the damage caused by 2013-15. And I also believe the Adams/Granato braintrust is more aware of the dangers of the tear down than Murray/Nolan and better equipped to mitigate.

If Eichel’s Trade Return does include players such as Rossi, Boldy or Addison, I would strongly consider placing as many young guys as possible in Rochester for at least 40-50 games to allow them to grow together. Granted it was different circumstances with the lock out, but the Miller, Pommers, Vanek Stint in Rochester helped Their Development. 

[dudacek]

14 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

 

If Eichel’s Trade Return does include players such as Rossi, Boldy or Addison, I would strongly consider placing as many young guys as possible in Rochester for at least 40-50 games to allow them to grow together. Granted it was different circumstances with the lock out, but the Miller, Pommers, Vanek Stint in Rochester helped Their Development. 

I’d tend to agree.

Im not sure if it would be the right thing for the player - I guess you see how things look in camp - but guys like Cozens, Bryson, Samuelsson and R2 are still waiver-exempt.

It’s unlikely, but…

Peterka Cozens Boldy

Quinn Ruotsalainen Murray

Bryson Fitzgerald

Samuelsson Laaksonen 

Lukkonnen

… or something similar would have me watching the Amerks more than the Sabres.

Edited July 27, 2021 by dudacek

[Hoss]

There’s no reason to put guys like Cozens and R2 a step behind in the AHL at this point. They’re NHL players and can grow in the NHL.

[Andrew Amerk]

26 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I’d tend to agree.

Im not sure if it would be the right thing for the player - I guess you see how things look in camp - but guys like Cozens, Bryson, Samuelsson and R2 are still waiver-exempt.

It’s unlikely, but…

Peterka Cozens Boldy

Quinn Ruotsalainen Murray

Bryson Fitzgerald

Samuelsson Laaksonen 

Lukkonnen

… or something similar would have me watching the Amerks more than the Sabres.

There’s little chances this team has Cozens, R2, Bryson, and Samuelsson in the AHL. 

KA himself said that he feels the better prospects will learn best by getting beat up in the NHL.

The Amerks will still be fielding a very fun team to watch, though.

[woods-racer]

51 minutes ago, Andrew Amerk said:

There’s little chances this team has Cozens, R2, Bryson, and Samuelsson in the AHL. 

KA himself said that he feels the better prospects will learn best by getting beat up in the NHL.

The Amerks will still be fielding a very fun team to watch, though.

That is really the difference between the tank and the *reset* we have now. They actually have a competitive farm team with a lot more talent to come in the next 3 years.

When we got Jack and Sam we had nothing much in Rochester. The tank was totally miss-managed and  doomed to fail under the management teams that where here. The biggest failure has been the 10 plus years of not restocking the farm team with decent players prior to the tank.

Edited July 27, 2021 by woods-racer

[Andrew Amerk]

1 minute ago, woods-racer said:

That is really the difference between the tank and the *reset* we have now. They actually have a competitive farm team with a lot more talent to come in the next 3 years.

When we got Jack and Sam we had nothing much in Rochester. The tank was totally miss-managed and  doomed to fail under the management teams that where here. The biggest failure has been the 10 plus years of not restocking the farm team with decent players.

No disagreements here 

[Thorny]

11 hours ago, dudacek said:

Usually because each is trying to wrestle the conversation over to different elements of the same issue. 😄

Whether Girgs or Cozens quite qualifies or not doesn’t respond to my overall point. And I certainly feel like young players could be impacted negatively by a ton of losses as well, and that they need veteran support. There is no debate from me there.

All I am basically saying is the group of U23 Sabres right now is significantly deeper, more talented and more prepared than the group of the same in July of 2013 and I think that puts us in a better position to avoid the damage caused by 2013-15. And I also believe the Adams/Granato braintrust is more aware of the dangers of the tear down than Murray/Nolan and better equipped to mitigate.

Spot on with the first bit. 

I suppose we are quibbling over the finer points, then. The group very well may turn out to be deeper, I just don't feel comfortable projecting that at this time (especially the "talent" bit - we'll have to see how that goes). I agree that it's deeper than it was in 2013, but we accumulated a lot after that over the course of 2 seasons, it'll be interesting to see if we do a 1 year "tank/rebuild" or if we are aiming for a high draft spot the next 2. If we aim for a high spot the next two, I can't see the overall pool not being deeper than before - but there'd be an obvious trade off. 

Biggest thing for me is the veteran support to give it a fighting chance, so if we are on the same page on that the rest is just interesting discussion. 

[Thorny]

11 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

This is more or less impossible to do, even when you try you can't rinse the stain of how things turned out with them away 

Appreciate this for sure. You can't set out comparing one-to-one, it's pretty folly. I think I just wanted to lay out a reminder that we did indeed have the perception of a ton of prospects "on the way" back then, too. We weren't just sitting there with Eichel saying, "ok, go!". 

[Thorny]

9 hours ago, woods-racer said:

That is really the difference between the tank and the *reset* we have now. They actually have a competitive farm team with a lot more talent to come in the next 3 years.

When we got Jack and Sam we had nothing much in Rochester. The tank was totally miss-managed and  doomed to fail under the management teams that where here. The biggest failure has been the 10 plus years of not restocking the farm team with decent players prior to the tank.

Just isn't true. 

Maybe in retrospect, but we had plenty of players down there we thought at the time would be NHL difference makers:

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0000032016.html

Bailey. Carrier. Rodrigues. Baptiste. Guhle. Pysyk. Cornel. Kea. Ullmark. 

These were guys, many second or first round picks, we expected to graduate and make a difference on the big club. I get the willingness to say it's deeper now and that may be true, but it wasn't some "nothing much" barren wasteland at that time. 

We can elevate the Cozens and the Dahlins and the Mittelstadts (and the Reinharts and the Nylanders the first time) and what not, but once you go down further than that, to the Rosens and the Poltapovs of the world, we were viewing the Baileys and the Guhles in the same way. 

Edited July 27, 2021 by Thorny

[dudacek]

48 minutes ago, Thorny said:

The group very well may turn out to be deeper, I just don't feel comfortable projecting that at this time (especially the "talent" bit - we'll have to see how that goes). 

I just think Dahlin alone puts the current group well ahead on talent. That’s not even a projection, that’s proven.
Mitts is demonstrably ahead of Grigorenko. Cozens has a better track record than Girgs. 

41 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Just isn't true. 

Maybe in retrospect, but we had plenty of players down there we thought at the time would be NHL difference makers:

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0000032016.html

Bailey. Carrier. Rodrigues. Baptiste. Guhle. Pysyk. Cornel. Kea. Ullmark. 

These were guys, many second or first round picks, we expected to graduate and make a difference on the big club. I get the willingness to say it's deeper now and that may be true, but it wasn't some "nothing much" barren wasteland at that time. 

We can elevate the Cozens and the Dahlins and the Mittelstadts (and the Reinharts and the Nylanders the first time) and what not, but once you go down further than that, to the Rosens and the Poltapovs of the world, we were viewing the Baileys and the Guhles in the same way. 

This I agree with.

[darksabre]

The biggest failure of the tank was always that, although we had a farm system, it wasn't filled with players who were ready to make the jump immediately. We had to wait for them. The second biggest failure was that we jettisoned way more of the good veterans than was necessary to achieve a historically bad team. They went much further with the gutting than Pittsburgh did and it put them on the back foot from day one.

[WildCard]

Just now, darksabre said:

The biggest failure of the tank was always that, although we had a farm system, it wasn't filled with players who were ready to make the jump immediately. We had to wait for them. The second biggest failure was that we jettisoned way more of the good veterans than was necessary to achieve a historically bad team. They went much further with the gutting than Pittsburgh did and it put them on the back foot from day one.

We don't currently have any good vets now, that's a big issue.

[darksabre]

Just now, WildCard said:

We don't currently have any good vets now, that's a big issue.

It's a HUGE issue.

If we're retrying the Gionta Moulson Gorges thing again, we need to get some bodies in here.

[WildCard]

1 minute ago, darksabre said:

It's a HUGE issue.

If we're retrying the Gionta Moulson Gorges thing again, we need to get some bodies in here.

Dominate personalities too. Guys with heart (looking at you, Kyle Williams for the Bills)

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, WildCard said:

Dominate personalities too. Guys with heart (looking at you, Kyle Williams for the Bills)

Gotta have heart. Miles and miles of heart.

[darksabre]

I'm not comfortable admitting how many assets I would allow the Sabres to give up to get Patrice Bergeron to waive his NMC.

[WildCard]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

Gotta have heart. Miles and miles of heart.

Trope alert, cliche, all that garbage...but I do agree with some people that Cozens just has that heart. Eichel never really had it. Competitive sure, but Cozens seems like he could have that leadership that we haven't had in nearly a decade.

[Thorny]

6 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I just think Dahlin alone puts the current group well ahead on talent. That’s not even a projection, that’s proven.
Mitts is demonstrably ahead of Grigorenko. Cozens has a better track record than Girgs. 

This I agree with.

I can't get there with the Cozens/Girgs comparison. In his second post draft year, first in the NHL, Girgensons had the same points per game as Cozens did this season, also his second post draft year. Girgs did his *on* the depleted roster - I don't see him in a worse spot relative to Cozens, moving from the same points per game as Girgs had, but to a presumably weaker roster next year than he just had. 

I can definitely give you Dahlin and Mittelstadt - but the other group went on to add Reinhart and Eichel. Like I said, if we go on and add two assets in the next two drafts similar to Reinhart and Eichel, yes, Dahlin and Mittelstadt provide separation between the groups: but my entire point is, to get there, it's two years of losing - and I don't like how that's going to affect Dahlin and Mittelstadt along that way, and as mentioned, Cozens et al. 

[WildCard]

Just now, darksabre said:

I'm not comfortable admitting how many assets I would allow the Sabres to give up to get Patrice Bergeron to waive his NMC.

Making him a majority owner should do it...maybe

[darksabre]

Just now, WildCard said:

Making him a majority owner should do it...maybe

Where do I sign

[Thorny]

5 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Gotta have heart. Miles and miles of heart.

I'm honestly surprised you didn't go to the Lex Luthor meets football gif

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

I'm honestly surprised you didn't go to the Lex Luthor meets football gif

Thought about it. I have used it before. 

[Thorny]

4 minutes ago, WildCard said:

Trope alert, cliche, all that garbage...but I do agree with some people that Cozens just has that heart. Eichel never really had it. Competitive sure, but Cozens seems like he could have that leadership that we haven't had in nearly a decade.

Eichel has heart. I wouldn't use that interchangeably with leadership ability 

Just now, LGR4GM said:

Thought about it. I have used it before. 

[WildCard]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Eichel has heart. I wouldn't use that interchangeably with leadership ability 

I don't know how to describe it, but Cozens just seems different to me.

Better example, Josh Allen. Allen will do anything for his team to win (Eichel will too). But when Allen faces adversity he just seems to handle it a lot better than Jack does.

[dudacek]

13 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I can't get there with the Cozens/Girgs comparison. In his second post draft year, first in the NHL, Girgensons had the same points per game as Cozens did this season, also his second post draft year. Girgs did his *on* the depleted roster - I don't see him in a worse spot relative to Cozens, moving from the same points per game as Girgs had, but to a presumably weaker roster next year than he just had. 

I can definitely give you Dahlin and Mittelstadt - but the other group went on to add Reinhart and Eichel. Like I said, if we go on and add two assets in the next two drafts similar to Reinhart and Eichel, yes, Dahlin and Mittelstadt provide separation between the groups: but my entire point is, to get there, it's two years of losing - and I don't like how that's going to affect Dahlin and Mittelstadt along that way, and as mentioned, Cozens et al. 

I agree that would Girgs and Cozens did in the NHL in their D+2 years is very similar and there is a chance Cozens could follow the same path. Cozens was pretty clearly ahead of him before that though, IMO.

• Girgensons was a 14th overall pick who put up 55 points in 49 games in the USHL
• Cozens was a 7th overall pick who put up 84 points in 68 games in the better WHL
• Girgensons put up 17 points in 61 games in the tough AHL and was considered one of the 30 best prospects in hockey
• Cozens put up 85 points in 51 games in the WHL and was considered one of the 5 best prospects in hockey
• Girgensons put up 22 points in 70 NHL games
• Cozens put up 13 points in 41 NHL games after dominating the WJC.

Edited July 27, 2021 by dudacek