Face it, the plan for next year is another tank

[nfreeman]

Holy mackerel @GASabresIUFAN is slingin that Hopium.

[Thorny]

4 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Who were our best prospects and young players when Jack and Sam were acquired?

Risto, Zadorov, McCabe, McNabb, Girgensons, Grirgoenko, Compher, Pysyk, and Armia.  All but Risto, McCabe and Girgensons were shipped out during TM’s tenure.

Now we have Mitts, Cozens, Quinn, JJP, Rosen, Dahlin, Jokiharju, Power, Samuelsson, Johnson, Asplund, R2, and UPL. None of which are being sent packing.  Instead they are the players we are building around.
 

This is where your argument falls apart. You are just guessing!

[GASabresIUFAN]

6 minutes ago, Weave said:

Lets see what they do about goalies before declaring whether this is or is not a tank.

If we don’t have 2 legit goalies on opening day we can safely say the focus is not on winning.

I think this is fair.  If the Chad D is correct that they are close to re-signing Ullmark, then atvleast you have one solid goalie.  I don’t think their focused on winning per se.  They are focused on getting the kids PT and hoping these kids continue the growth they showed last year in order to be competitive.  

[Thorny]

We had a big prospect base last time. We have one this time. We have no idea if they will turn out better. We have to idea if we will keep them all or trade them all or if the ones we send packing will have been good had we kept them. Would we have been good if Murray didn't trade away Grigorenko and Zadorov and McNabb and Pysyk and Armia and Compher? I don't know that any of those players are impact guys right now. 

I like the optimism I guess I just don't understand the need to proclaim KA's rebuild as "virtuous" when it just freakin' started. 

[PASabreFan]

30 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Also, the “THIS time we have a solid group of kids around” is a poor argument: we had the perception of that solid backing last time, too. You don’t get to look at Girgensons and Grigorenko and Ristolainen and Zadorov and, because they didn’t work out for us, say it’s “different” this time purely because you are seeing all our young players in the best light right now. 

At the time of the tank, THOSE guys were promising, too

The revisionist history is staggering. I guess that’s the “doomed to repeat it” thing in action 

OK. But if you watch Dylan Cozens and can't see that he has something Jack doesn't have, I don't know what to tell you.

5 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Holy mackerel @GASabresIUFAN is slingin that Hopium.

[Thorny]

Just now, PASabreFan said:

OK. But if you watch Dylan Cozens and can't see that he has something Jack doesn't have, I don't know what to tell you.

I'll allow that "vague something" to have it's place here, for the sake of argument. Maybe that turns out to be true.

I can certainly also see he's missing something Jack had, about 35% of his raw talent. Maybe it breaks even? I don't think so, but I suppose Cozens has a shot at it, all 200 foot game included, if he really is Messier reincarnated on the leadership front. 

We better get Wright though, or Bedard in two years: according to you, we'll need that Messier in him unlocked by our Gretzky. Rise that tide. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

This is where your argument falls apart. You are just guessing!

Fall apart?  This is the strength of it.  Who did KA trade at the draft? Not the kids.  Who did KA say he planned to trade in order to acquire a veteran assets?  No one.  He just traded two veterans from the tank to acquire picks and prospects.  His stated plan is to build around the kids, to not box them out.  

Most prospects / young players never reach their potential or even make it to the NHL, but unlike TM’s reign of depth destruction, at least these kids are going to be given the chance.

[Thorny]

17 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Fall apart?  This is the strength of it.  Who did KA trade at the draft? Not the kids.  Who did KA say he planned to trade in order to acquire a veteran assets?  No one.  He just traded two veterans from the tank to acquire picks and prospects.  His stated plan is to build around the kids, to not box them out.  

Most prospects / young players never reach their potential or even make it to the NHL, but unlike TM’s reign of depth destruction, at least these kids are going to be given the chance.

- We had just as many top level prospects in the system after the 2015 draft as we do now

- when has a GM ever said they plan to trade away, naming names, in pursuit of vet players down the road? Come on

- Murray also traded vets for picks and prospects

As for the bold - this just isn't in good faith anymore. It's been statistically demonstrated on this board time and time again that Botterill used way less picks, traded more away, yet you only attribute "reign of destruction" to TM

Edit - you also mention guys like McNabb, who was traded for another prospect. Plenty of the players he shipped out were under that mold (Murray)

- - - 

"We need young players at every position," Murray said. "The two forwards we got back are heavy skilled forwards that we hope going forward are a big part of what we are."

The Sabres then dealt forwards Matt Moulson and Cody McCormick to Minnesota in exchange for forward Torrey Mitchell and two second-round picks (2014 and '16). They also traded goalie Jaroslav Halak to Washington for goalie Michal Neuvirth and defenseman Rostislav Klesla.

Edited July 26, 2021 by Thorny

[PASabreFan]

18 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I'll allow that "vague something" to have it's place here, for the sake of argument. Maybe that turns out to be true.

I can certainly also see he's missing something Jack had, about 35% of his raw talent. Maybe it breaks even? I don't think so, but I suppose Cozens has a shot at it, all 200 foot game included, if he really is Messier reincarnated on the leadership front. 

We better get Wright though, or Bedard in two years: according to you, we'll need that Messier in him unlocked by our Gretzky. Rise that tide. 

We have our 99. All aboard!

[Thorny]

11 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

We have our 99. All aboard!

[Thorny]

51 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Holy mackerel @GASabresIUFAN is slingin that Hopium.

The irony is that he started the fire Adams thread. It's an incredible dynamic - the absolute faith that the rebuild isn't the just the correct course of action, but that it's going to be, in the future, done "properly" this time, contrasted with whatever disbelief in said GM led to the creation of the thread. 

[nfreeman]

Just now, Thorny said:

The irony is that he started the fire Adams thread. It's an incredible dynamic - the absolute faith that the rebuild isn't the just the correct course of action, but that it's going to be, in the future, done "properly" this time, contrasted with whatever disbelief in said GM led to the creation of the thread. 

I agree with @GASabresIUFAN that the prospect pool is deeper and richer and will be given much more development time and opportunity than were the case with TM.  His hopium is sweeeeet.

But the bolded will be difficult for him to explain.  

[I-90 W]

I think if KA goes after a legit 1a goalie this off-season we will know this is no tank, just a tear down. 

[Thorny]

5 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I agree with @GASabresIUFAN that the prospect pool is deeper and richer and will be given much more development time and opportunity than were the case with TM.  His hopium is sweeeeet.

But the bolded will be difficult for him to explain.  

I'd love to see a player for player breakdown comparing the prospects in system at the start of the 2014-15 season, and now (too lazy). I don't believe it's deeper, or richer - we probably have the weakest centre pipeline in the league right now, for one. (Should probably revisit it after the Jack trade, though)

We were coming in at the top of prospect lists at that time. Our system was stacked. We were actually coming in in the LOWER half of lists before this draft. Yes, he's added some nice prospects in the last few days, but I don't see a deeper system thus far: I see a comparable one. 

Just now, I-90 W said:

I think if KA goes after a legit 1a goalie this off-season we will know this is no tank, just a tear down. 

Acquires. 

[I-90 W]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I'd love to see a player for player breakdown comparing the prospects in system at the start of the 2014-15 season, and now (too lazy). I don't believe it's deeper, or richer - we probably have the weakest centre pipeline in the league right now, for one. (Should probably revisit it after the Jack trade, though)

We were coming in at the top of prospect lists at that time. Our system was stacked. We were actually coming in in the LOWER half of lists before this draft. Yes, he's added some nice prospects in the last few days, but I don't see a deeper system thus far: I see a comparable one. 

Acquires. 

Yes I meant via trade. Correct.

[Thorny]

2 minutes ago, I-90 W said:

Yes I meant via trade. Correct.

Sorry, my mistake. I took "goes after" to mean merely his supposed attempt would satisfy the requirement. 

If we aren't trying to lose, we will have 2 good goalies. We know we need them - no one could look at last season's results and not see that. 

[sabremike]

If the goal of an organization is to lose, if losing is the standard, if losing is acceptable then you will do nothing but lose. That's not meant as some brilliant insight, it's just common sense. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Just because and I like the general plan doesn't mean I trust or believe that KA is capable of making the plan work.  I still think Ka is in way over his head.  I think his failure to secure better returns for Hall and Reinhart are symptoms of his incompetence.  That said after an initial negative reaction to this latest draft, I think there is real talent in the group.  Sadly I think much of it may take years and years to unlock.  

I'd have much more confidence in the plan working if someone else was running it.  However since KA is TP/KP's yes man, I have no choice to wait and see.  At least the prospect poll give me some hope.

[Thorny]

There's your comparison, GA's from the prospect thread on the left, Kris Baker's top 26 ranking from 2014. 

- - - 

Looking at the players on the right through the prism of how we were viewing them at the time, I don't see much difference between the two sides, imo. The list on the right starts out with 4 first round picks. Of course it's tempting to see the players on the left in a better light as your eyes rove down the list towards the bottom as they are unknowns and you can still hope for the ceiling, but if you keep in mind how we were viewing the guys on the right (Justin Bailey?), at least in my opinion it's pretty comparable. 

My point in doing this isn't to illustrate that it's doomed, merely that the difference we are looking for here is, hopefully, better prospect evaluation/drafting. I don't think this rebuild is fairly classified as "different" already because we have more of a quantity of young talent - I think we need to hope what we have, in similar quantity to last time so far, ends up better. Yes, we will be adding pieces with the Eichel deal, but we also managed to secure Jack Eichel first go round, and who knows if we get our hands on that level of C this time. 

Adams may also manage what comes next differently, to GA's point. As stated, Murray didn't blow a bunch of pics, but maybe Adams keeps even more. As stated, Murray attempted to add capable veteran talent. I think Murray failed here in evaluation but not in aim - I think adding that vet talent is important, but he seems to have targeted the wrong players (save ROR, imo). To me that doesn't make the strategy a poor one. We will have to see whether Adams keeps everyone or ships out some prospects down the line as well, and we will also have to see *if* the choice to go "full youth" even will be the correct strategy, should he indeed go that route as is being mentioned as expected. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

What comparison leaves out is the better youth in the NHL now vs then. There was no one like Jokiharju, Mitts, Asplund or Dahlin on that 2014 team. Plus prospects 3-7, 9 and 13 (so 7 of the top 13) were traded away before they could have an impact for us.  

[Curt]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

They aren't tanking but finally rebuilding the right way. Unlike the tank for Sam and Jack, this organization has a solid group of kids in the system to build around.  Now the question is can management execute to fill the holes as they occur without harming the development of the kids.  This time they won't be trading the depth away to bring in "star" players. 

Now lets get 2 good goalies to back stop the kids and hopefully DG can get the kids playing hard every night win or lose. Sadly lose is more likely as the division will be stacked next season, with Cup contenders TB and Mon, playoff regulars like Boston and Toronto and newly competitive Florida.  Ott and Det also look like they'll be better.  The Sabres could still finish last in the division and be significantly better on the ice.   

Last time they tanked there was also a “solid group of kids in the system to build around”.

It was the summer of 2014.  Player under 25, there was:

G’s Enroth, Ullmark, and Peterson

D’s Myers, Risto, Zadorov, McNabb, McCabe, and Pysyk

F’s Ennis, Foligno, Armia, Girgensons, Grigorenko, Compher, Hurley, Bailey, and Baptiste

And we also had a stockpile of picks for 2014 and 2015.

Of course not all of these young players would turn out, but surely many would.  We just needed to add a couple star talents to the roster, and we had the perfect plan to do just that....................

[Thorny]

6 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

What comparison leaves out is the better youth in the NHL now vs then. There was no one like Jokiharju, Mitts, Asplund or Dahlin on that 2014 team. Plus prospects 3-7, 9 and 13 (so 7 of the top 13) were traded away before they could have an impact for us.  

Sure there was. Girgensons was on the team, for one. "Girgensons" of 2014 is so, so far away from Girgensons today. In the early days the "concept of"s are still alive. This was a top half of the first round pick. He was seen *every bit* as positively as Mittelstadt is right now, I'd wager to say he was actually more highly thought of. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

6 minutes ago, Curt said:

Last time they tanked there was also a “solid group of kids in the system to build around”.

It was the summer of 2014.  Player under 25, there was:

G’s Enroth, Ullmark, and Peterson

D’s Myers, Risto, Zadorov, McNabb, McCabe, and Pysyk

F’s Ennis, Foligno, Armia, Girgensons, Grigorenko, Compher, Hurley, Bailey, and Baptiste

And we also had a stockpile of picks for 2014 and 2015.

Of course not all of these young players would turn out, but surely many would.  We just needed to add a couple star talents to the roster, and we had the perfect plan to do just that....................

Group had potential if allowed to stay together but….. bolded guys all traded away except Peterson who left on his own.  Also stockpile 1st rd picks in 2015 went with them

Edited July 26, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[Thorny]

11 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

What comparison leaves out is the better youth in the NHL now vs then. There was no one like Jokiharju, Mitts, Asplund or Dahlin on that 2014 team. Plus prospects 3-7, 9 and 13 (so 7 of the top 13) were traded away before they could have an impact for us.  

I've already gotten into the trade thing, we don't know that A) trading for vet help isn't the right thing to do B) whether Adams will actually avoid doing it, and

C) part of the reason some of those players were even dealt is because they, after the snap shot in time I took in summer 2014, began to become expendable in the eyes of the organization - sometimes because they weren't "living up to expectations". 

And that's my point - our prospect list looks incredible right now to your eyes, but these types of things can shift very quickly - we don't really know what they'll become. 

It'll be about the execution. 

9 minutes ago, Curt said:

Last time they tanked there was also a “solid group of kids in the system to build around”.

It was the summer of 2014.  Player under 25, there was:

G’s Enroth, Ullmark, and Peterson

D’s Myers, Risto, Zadorov, McNabb, McCabe, and Pysyk

F’s Ennis, Foligno, Armia, Girgensons, Grigorenko, Compher, Hurley, Bailey, and Baptiste

And we also had a stockpile of picks for 2014 and 2015.

Of course not all of these young players would turn out, but surely many would.  We just needed to add a couple star talents to the roster, and we had the perfect plan to do just that....................

lol we did the same thing 

[I-90 W]

The only thing I fear is that if KA feels like he is on the hot seat a couple years from now for whatever reason, that he will start trading away our prospects and empty our cupboard for self preservation. If memory serves that’s what TM did.