Jack Eichel: Trade rumors and speculation

[Thorny]

1 hour ago, LabattBlue said:

With old board software you could see the number of posts by each member within a thread.  Be interested to know who has posted the most in this thread. 😂

[K-9]

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

You mean the amount of financial risk they are willing to take is fully tied to the cost they are willing to pay in player assets? As one rises the other falls? I can see that.

Wouldnt it stand to reason the Pegulas could make the same play in reverse? Take on the risk of the surgery to maximize the player assets?

If 5 teams believe in ADR enough to wager $50 million on it, why shouldn’t Kim And Terry?

 

Because the Sabres aren’t indemnified against Jack not playing if something goes wrong with a non-approved surgery perhaps? 

[dudacek]

4 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Because the Sabres aren’t indemnified against Jack not playing if something goes wrong with a non-approved surgery perhaps? 

Perhaps, but that’s where this conversation started: why would there be significant differences?

@nfreeman seemed to be saying there probably aren’t, it’s just that other teams are more willing to bet $50 million.

 

[nfreeman]

18 minutes ago, dudacek said:

You mean the amount of financial risk they are willing to take is fully tied to the cost they are willing to pay in player assets? As one rises the other falls? I can see that.

Wouldnt it stand to reason the Pegulas could make the same play in reverse? Take on the risk of the surgery to maximize the player assets?

If 5 teams believe in ADR enough to wager $50 million on it, why shouldn’t Kim And Terry?

 

But TP doesn't believe in ADR enough to take on the $50MM risk, and I don't see how a deal could be engineered under which the Sabres bear the $50MM risk in exchange for a Zegras/Drysdale/1st rounder or similar rich trade package.

For that matter, I don't think any GM is going to give up his crown jewels for a pre-full-recovery Eichel regardless of how much the $50MM risk will be reduced.  My point was that a GM with a stinking rich and risk-tolerant owner might be willing to risk the $50MM, or most of it, but not the $50MM AND the crown jewels, which, to an owner like that, are more precious and harder to replace than the $50MM.

[Marvin]

11 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Perhaps, but that’s where this conversation started: why would there be significant differences?

@nfreeman seemed to be saying there probably aren’t, it’s just that other teams are more willing to bet $50 million.

This could just be the temperament of the teams' doctors.  More conservative doctors means lower chances of experimental surgeries.

[K-9]

12 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Perhaps, but that’s where this conversation started: why would there be significant differences?

@nfreeman seemed to be saying there probably aren’t, it’s just that other teams are more willing to bet $50 million.

 

Can’t speak to the specific level of differences, but different insurance companies have different policies with different costs for different levels of coverage. It would be nice to find out the specifics. 

That said, if teams are willing to go all in on the risk, then they should be willing to go all in to acquire him. They either believe in a full recovery and return to being an elite player or they don’t. 

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, nfreeman said:

But TP doesn't believe in ADR enough to take on the $50MM risk, and I don't see how a deal could be engineered under which the Sabres bear the $50MM risk in exchange for a Zegras/Drysdale/1st rounder or similar rich trade package.

For that matter, I don't think any GM is going to give up his crown jewels for a pre-full-recovery Eichel regardless of how much the $50MM risk will be reduced.  My point was that a GM with a stinking rich and risk-tolerant owner might be willing to risk the $50MM, or most of it, but not the $50MM AND the crown jewels, which, to an owner like that, are more precious and harder to replace than the $50MM.

Yes, that’s exactly what I thought you were saying.

Im saying the Pegulas have the money. Right now they are spending it on nothing and their Crown Jewel is worthless.

And Im asking why, if another owner is willing to take the risk, why shouldn’t Terry?

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Can’t speak to the specific level of differences, but different insurance companies have different policies with different costs for different levels of coverage. It would be nice to find out the specifics. 

That said, if teams are willing to go all in on the risk, then they should be willing to go all in to acquire him. They either believe in a full recovery and return to being an elite player or they don’t. 

In your view, is the best course of action to simply wait because eventually a team will pay the asking price, or Jack will acquiesce to fusion?

[K-9]

Just now, dudacek said:

In your view, is the best course of action to simply wait because eventually a team will pay the asking price, or Jack will acquiesce to fusion?

My view has always been a return to health and a demonstration of full recovery in order to maximize trade value. So yeah, I’m fine with waiting. Especially because there is no rush. 

Back to my question: if a team is willing to go all in on the risk, presumably because they believe in a full recovery and return to form (why else would they assume that risk?), then why wouldn’t they go all in to acquire him in the first place? 

[nfreeman]

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Yes, that’s exactly what I thought you were saying.

Im saying the Pegulas have the money. Right now they are spending it on nothing and their Crown Jewel is worthless.

And Im asking why, if another owner is willing to take the risk, why shouldn’t Terry?

But if Jack never plays again, the insurance (based on what we've heard, which sounds reasonable IMHO) will cover 75%, so TP's exposure is $12.5MM.

If another team acquires him and he has ADR, the exposure jumps to $50MM, minus whatever the Sabres take back, which will probably be $12.5MM or less.

If you agree that no one is going to give up their crown jewels for Jack even if TP somehow bears the $50MM risk (which again I don't think is possible), then what's in it for TP to increase his risk above the $12.5MM?

1 minute ago, K-9 said:

My view has always been a return to health and a demonstration of full recovery in order to maximize trade value. So yeah, I’m fine with waiting. Especially because there is no rush. 

Back to my question: if a team is willing to go all in on the risk, presumably because they believe in a full recovery and return to form (why else would they assume that risk?), then why wouldn’t they go all in to acquire him in the first place? 

Because some teams are willing to risk $50MM, minus whatever the Sabres take back, but so far no one is willing to risk more than that -- i.e. not the money AND their best prospects.

[klos1963]

5 minutes ago, dudacek said:

In your view, is the best course of action to simply wait because eventually a team will pay the asking price, or Jack will acquiesce to fusion?

I don't think any team will give in to our asking price unless Eichel is 100% healthy and back in form. I think that's been the case since day 1. I think eventually Jack will give in to fusion because I believe if he files a grievance he will lose.  I don't believe the Sabres feel they would get either fair value or a 100% healthy Eichel with ADR, which is why they won't budge on the fusion surgery.

[klos1963]

4 minutes ago, K-9 said:

My view has always been a return to health and a demonstration of full recovery in order to maximize trade value. So yeah, I’m fine with waiting. Especially because there is no rush. 

Back to my question: if a team is willing to go all in on the risk, presumably because they believe in a full recovery and return to form (why else would they assume that risk?), then why wouldn’t they go all in to acquire him in the first place? 

They probably don't feel the risk is worth the package the Sabres are asking for but believe there is some risk worth taking. They won't risk the $50 million and 4 top pieces.

[K-9]

1 minute ago, klos1963 said:

They probably don't feel the risk is worth the package the Sabres are asking for but believe there is some risk worth taking. They won't risk the $50 million and 4 top pieces.

If Eichel was at 100% good health, would they be willing to risk those pieces? 

[dudacek]

7 minutes ago, K-9 said:

My view has always been a return to health and a demonstration of full recovery in order to maximize trade value. So yeah, I’m fine with waiting. Especially because there is no rush. 

Back to my question: if a team is willing to go all in on the risk, presumably because they believe in a full recovery and return to form (why else would they assume that risk?), then why wouldn’t they go all in to acquire him in the first place? 

That was my position on this situation up until about August.

It changed because of the evidence: not one single team has stepped up. From what we hear, far from all-in, the offers have been laughable.

The best answer I’ve seen is @nfreeman’s the risk is enough that it demands a discount, either in cash, players or both.

To the waiting part, I don’t see any scenario that results in Eichel getting fusion. We live in a world where 25 per cent of the American population is refusing to vaccinate despite far more scientific evidence and social pressure to do so than Eichel faces in his ADR stance. His stance isn’t a calculated lever, it’s a strongly held personal belief.

 

6 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

But if Jack never plays again, the insurance (based on what we've heard, which sounds reasonable IMHO) will cover 75%, so TP's exposure is $12.5MM.

If another team acquires him and he has ADR, the exposure jumps to $50MM, minus whatever the Sabres take back, which will probably be $12.5MM or less.

If you agree that no one is going to give up their crown jewels for Jack even if TP somehow bears the $50MM risk (which again I don't think is possible), then what's in it for TP to increase his risk above the $12.5MM?

I think some one will give up the Crown Jewels for Jack if TP assumes the financial risk, especially once Jack is back on the ice and looking like Jack.

[klos1963]

15 minutes ago, K-9 said:

If Eichel was at 100% good health, would they be willing to risk those pieces? 

I would think so. Not a lot of teams, but a team like Colorado or Vegas? definitely.

[K-9]

7 minutes ago, klos1963 said:

I would think so. Not a lot of teams, but a team like Colorado or Vegas? definitely.

I think so, too. Which is why I see an inconsistency in their reasoning. If Eichel were already at 100% they’d pay the price. They are willing to go all in on the $50m risk currently because their assumption is he will be back at 100% and we’ve established that Eichel at 100% is worth the trade price in the first place.
 

[klos1963]

7 hours ago, K-9 said:

I think so, too. Which is why I see an inconsistency in their reasoning. If Eichel were already at 100% they’d pay the price. They are willing to go all in on the $50m risk currently because their assumption is he will be back at 100% and we’ve established that Eichel at 100% is worth the trade price in the first place.
 

In Colorado's case, they're not willing to risk the money as it's been reported they dropped out after Sabres said no to retaining money. I think that's where any team would be.

It goes back to , if the Sabres want the 4 pieces, Eichel needs to be 100% healthy and ready to go.

Edited October 24, 2021 by klos1963

[K-9]

1 hour ago, klos1963 said:

In Colorado's case, they're not willing to risk the money as it's been reported the dropped out after Sabres said no to retaining money. I think that's were any team would be.

It goes back to , if the Sabres want the 4 pieces, Eichel needs to be 100% healthy and ready to go.

Right, so then teams reportedly interested really don’t have faith that Eichel will return to the player he was. If they really did, then they’d be willing to pay the price for a heathy Eichel. And by extension of that logic, neither do Brisson and Co., otherwise they’d do a better selling job of their player instead of saying the Sabres need to settle for less as has been reported. It just doesn’t add up to me. 

 

[SabresVet]

2 hours ago, nfreeman said:

But TP doesn't believe in ADR enough to take on the $50MM risk, and I don't see how a deal could be engineered under which the Sabres bear the $50MM risk in exchange for a Zegras/Drysdale/1st rounder or similar rich trade package.

For that matter, I don't think any GM is going to give up his crown jewels for a pre-full-recovery Eichel regardless of how much the $50MM risk will be reduced.  My point was that a GM with a stinking rich and risk-tolerant owner might be willing to risk the $50MM, or most of it, but not the $50MM AND the crown jewels, which, to an owner like that, are more precious and harder to replace than the $50MM.

I'd love to know if it's TP who won't take back salary in a trade or if it's Adams.  If it's the owner, that fits with what he's shown himself to be: a guy who thinks he knows hockey (but doesn't) and is now intent on the bottom line with his franchise in a way not seen before the pandemic hit.    

Everything I've seen from the Pegula's of late has been focused on cutting costs and I can't blame them this year.  Selling 40-50% of your tickets is gonna add up to 25M or more in lost revenue for 2021-22.  

I'd hope it's Adams who is thinking about the impact giving back salary would hold on future cap years.  At the same time, I don't get the sense the Pegula's are gonna spend until the fans come back.  When that happens is anyone's guess.

[Radar]

1 hour ago, SabresVet said:

I'd love to know if it's TP who won't take back salary in a trade or if it's Adams.  If it's the owner, that fits with what he's shown himself to be: a guy who thinks he knows hockey (but doesn't) and is now intent on the bottom line with his franchise in a way not seen before the pandemic hit.    

Everything I've seen from the Pegula's of late has been focused on cutting costs and I can't blame them this year.  Selling 40-50% of your tickets is gonna add up to 25M or more in lost revenue for 2021-22.  

I'd hope it's Adams who is thinking about the impact giving back salary would hold on future cap years.  At the same time, I don't get the sense the Pegula's are gonna spend until the fans come back.  When that happens is anyone's guess.

When they win or when he sells the team is when the fans will come back.

 

[Doohickie]

13 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Jack could be paralyzed with one bad hit.

I think the underlying issue in all this is that there is very little data to evaluate this risk.  There's the MMA guy that did it and continues to compete, but I can only assume that all the risk is on his part.  But as a mechanical engineer I have to wonder how the impact loads of MMA fighting compare to those of the NHL, where players routinely achieve 20 mph before colliding with other players (who can also be doing 20 mph in the opposite direction).

There probably is some data, but whether it can be crunched to give a good probability calculation that Jack could suffer permanent, serious injury is questionable.  And also since the surgery has not been done on an NHLer, what risk level would the Sabres, the NHL, their insurance companies, their lawyers, etc., etc., find acceptable?  I'm going to guess there is some whole number percentage chance (i.e., more than 1%) that Jack could face permanent injury due to failure of the ADR and the Sabres are comfortable with a small fraction of a percent.  Or something like that.

It really comes down to the numbers I think, and there is a lot of uncertainty what the numbers even are because there's no direct data.

Edited October 24, 2021 by The Ghost of Yuri

[klos1963]

6 hours ago, K-9 said:

Right, so then teams reportedly interested really don’t have faith that Eichel will return to the player he was. If they really did, then they’d be willing to pay the price for a heathy Eichel. And by extension of that logic, neither do Brisson and Co., otherwise they’d do a better selling job of their player instead of saying the Sabres need to settle for less as has been reported. It just doesn’t add up to me. 

 

More diplomatically, I would say they have reasonable doubt, but also, why overpay now ? This isn't a bidding war, any team that meets the Sabres asking price will be the first and only team to do so. Not sure that would make sense to do that.

9 minutes ago, The Ghost of Yuri said:

I think the underlying issue in all this is that there is very little data to evaluate this risk.  There's the MMA guy that did it and continues to compete, but I can only assume that all the risk is on his part.  But as a mechanical engineer I have to wonder how the impact loads of MMA fighting compare to those of the NHL, where players routinely achieve 20 mph before colliding with other players (who can also be doing 20 mph in the opposite direction).

There probably is some data, but whether it can be crunched to give a good probability calculation that Jack could suffer permanent, serious injury is questionable.  And also since the surgery has not been done on an NHLer, what risk level would the Sabres, the NHL, their insurance companies, their lawyers, etc., etc., find acceptable?  I'm going to guess there is some whole number percentage chance (i.e., more than 1%) that Jack could face permanent injury due to failure of the ADR and the Sabres are comfortable with a small fraction of a percent.  Or something like that.

It really comes down to the numbers I think, and there is a lot of uncertainty what the numbers even are because there's no direct data.

This was likely covered somewhere in the previous 337 pages, but how many NHL'ers have had the fusion surgery and how did that play out?

[Doohickie]

8 hours ago, K-9 said:

That said, if teams are willing to go all in on the risk, then they should be willing to go all in to acquire him. They either believe in a full recovery and return to being an elite player or they don’t. 

They're willing to accept a transfer of the risk from the Sabres, but the mitigation of that risk on their end is offering a lower return.

If you were buying a $1000 item, you'd willingly pay $1000 for it.  But if you find out it is damaged, but it *might* be fixable, you're going to expect on discount on the chance that it won't be worth $1000 in the future.  It may only be worth $100 as-is, and you may be willing to roll the dice an pay, say, $600 for it, in the belief that it might be worth at least that much in the future (and maybe the full $1000), but as long as it's in the as-is state, you'll never pay the full price for it, even though there's a chance it might be worth that after the repair.

[Doohickie]

4 minutes ago, klos1963 said:

This was likely covered somewhere in the previous 337 pages, but how many NHL'ers have had the fusion surgery and how did that play out?

There has been some talk about it here.  I found a case of a guy who had it done, returned to the NHL, it drove the injury to the next disc and he was advised to retire; and then there's Kris Letang who had fusion surgery in 2017 and is still playing.  What are the actual numbers?  I don't know.  But even in the case of the player who retired, he wasn't paralyzed or anything, just couldn't play anymore.

I think the real concern is what if Eichel takes a hit and ends up a quadriplegic?  Who, legally, holds the liability for that?  Eichel?  The team who cleared his surgery?  The NHL?

As far as what are the numbers?  I don't know.  I tried looking for them myself and found just a few individual stories of players who had fusion and returned, or attempted to return, to the NHL.

[K-9]

39 minutes ago, klos1963 said:

More diplomatically, I would say they have reasonable doubt, but also, why overpay now ? This isn't a bidding war, any team that meets the Sabres asking price will be the first and only team to do so. Not sure that would make sense to do that.

This was likely covered somewhere in the previous 337 pages, but how many NHL'ers have had the fusion surgery and how did that play out?

When I looked into it, I could only come up with two: Kris Letang and Derek Dorsett. Both returned to play after six month rehabs. Letang continues to play at an all star level while Dorsett was forced to retire after recurring issues with his neck.