Sabres, 8th overall pick: Jack Quinn

[Thorny]

5 minutes ago, Curt said:

What’s everyone’s thought of Adams comment that Quinn has some “center tendencies” and that he wouldn’t be surprised if Quinn played some C next season?  I thought it was interesting, but could this actually happen?

To me it would make me happier with the strategy (less likely needs focused on the Quinn pick, if they are not set on him being a RW) yet at the same time even more disappointed in their evaluation process. 

I hope it's not the case - if we wanted a C, there were better centres on the board who actually have excelled at the centre ice position. 

Edited October 8, 2020 by Thorny

[dudacek]

14 minutes ago, Thorny said:

 

That they play an admitted factor at all is enough for me to disagree with his drafting strategy (among other stated factors). 

If you were Adams and a right-handed defenceman was at the top of your draft board every time your pick came up, would you take him? If not, when would you start deviating?

I know this has been discussed around here before, but I can't remember your take on it.

[Thorny]

Just now, dudacek said:

If you were Adams and a right-handed defenceman was at the top of your draft board every time your pick came up, would you take him? If not, when would you start deviating?

I know this has been discussed around here before, but I can't remember your take on it.

Ya. Remember, when you were talking about how we couldn't be upset with Sanderson or Drysdale, I agreed with you? I said I'd be "disappointed" the BPA at 8 wasn't a F, yet totally in agreement they HAD to be the selection. 

Maybe I'm dumb but my positions are, I hope, consistent. 

[Thorny]

The extrapolation of your question is an interesting hypothetical, but I'd argue in the later rounds it's unlikely to have such a concrete stance on talent/projection (I certainly wouldn't) to the point where I couldn't get the "needs" tie-breaker worked in. 

In instances where there is noteworthy talent gap, I would factor in position and current roster not at all.  

11 minutes ago, Curt said:

What’s everyone’s thought of Adams comment that Quinn has some “center tendencies” and that he wouldn’t be surprised if Quinn played some C next season?  I thought it was interesting, but could this actually happen?

It's a nice skill to have, but he's a goal scoring winger. I'd be happy for him to have it, but I'd rather it be used like Blake Wheeler in Winnipeg, who fills in at C in a pinch, but who lines up as a RW in general. 

[dudacek]

5 minutes ago, Curt said:

What’s everyone’s thought of Adams comment that Quinn has some “center tendencies” and that he wouldn’t be surprised if Quinn played some C next season?  I thought it was interesting, but could this actually happen?

I think Quinn played centre at times for Ottawa and there is a suggestion he may get moved there more often this year.

I don't think it played any role in why he was picked, or in the Sabres plans for him, other than versatility being an added plus for any player.

Just now, Thorny said:

To me it would make me happier with the strategy (less likely needs focused on the Quinn pick, if they are not set on him being a RW) yet at the same time even more disappointed in their evaluation process.

Yes or no if you can please, do you think the Sabres believed Rossi was a better player than Quinn but picked Quinn because of his position?

If yes, why do you think Adams was lying in multiple interviews — not why would he lie, but what leads you to believe he's lying?

3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

The extrapolation of your question is an interesting hypothetical, but I'd argue in the later rounds it's unlikely to have such a concrete stance on talent/projection (I certainly wouldn't) to the point where I couldn't get the "needs" tie-breaker worked in. 

In instances where there is noteworthy talent gap, I would factor in position and current roster not at all. 

100 per cent in agreement here. I think most GMs would be as well.

[Thorny]

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think Quinn played centre at times for Ottawa and there is a suggestion he may get moved there more often this year.

I don't think it played any role in why he was picked, or in the Sabres plans for him, other than versatility being an added plus for any player.

Yes or no if you can please, do you think the Sabres believed Rossi was a better player than Quinn but picked Quinn because of his position?

If yes, why do you think Adams was lying in multiple interviews — not why would he lie, but what leads you to believe he's lying?

100 per cent in agreement here. I think most GMs would be as well.

I'd rather just side-step your question - I think Adams probably believed Quinn was the BPA, but I think the position he played probably seeped into his judgment more than I personally would have let it. 

I absolutely do not believe he was lying outright. 

Edited October 8, 2020 by Thorny

[nfreeman]

28 minutes ago, Thorny said:

😄I'm shocked.

You can disagree with their application to Quinn all you want (validly), but my central point wasn't theory or interpretation - Kevin Adams explicitly stated that position and roster are a concern when drafting. 

That they play an admitted factor at all is enough for me to disagree with his drafting strategy (among other stated factors). 

I think the bolded is an inaccurate description of KA's statements.  He mentioned them in response to someone's question about the centers on the roster as part of a somewhat free-form response, which he concluded by emphasizing that their approach was BPA.

Separately, Harrington's first question in that presser -- in which he caustically asked why Kahun wasn't qualified while TT was extended -- was IMHO a great reminder of how off-putting and sometimes clueless he is.

[Thorny]

Truth is, I agree more with @GASabresIUFAN who thinks BPA is a crock of shite. I believe in the theory, this is how I would draft, but I think GMs factor in need. Adams admitted to it - I think what it is is, I prefer lip-service to "BPA" which you most often hear from GMs, because it let's me believe/hope they are factoring "need" in perhaps as little as possible. 

7 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I think the bolded is an inaccurate description of KA's statements.  He mentioned them in response to someone's question about the centers on the roster as part of a somewhat free-form response, which he concluded by emphasizing that their approach was BPA.

Separately, Harrington's first question in that presser -- in which he caustically asked why Kahun wasn't qualified while TT was extended -- was IMHO a great reminder of how off-putting and sometimes clueless he is.

Do you think need is at all a consideration for Adams when drafting? Or that he's purely, strictly, BPA. Even though he said "we look at positon/roster" in reference to selecting two RWS 1-2. The question was specifically in regards to going 1-2 RWS in the draft. His answer was relevant to draft outlook, it was. 

But I'm actually asking - do you think Adams factors in need, at all?

Edited October 8, 2020 by Thorny

[Thorny]

11 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think Quinn played centre at times for Ottawa and there is a suggestion he may get moved there more often this year.

I don't think it played any role in why he was picked, or in the Sabres plans for him, other than versatility being an added plus for any player.

Yes or no if you can please, do you think the Sabres believed Rossi was a better player than Quinn but picked Quinn because of his position?

If yes, why do you think Adams was lying in multiple interviews — not why would he lie, but what leads you to believe he's lying?

100 per cent in agreement here. I think most GMs would be as well.

So you think Quinn stays at RW, for the most part?

[nfreeman]

4 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Truth is, I agree more with @GASabresIUFAN who thinks BPA is a crock of shite. I believe in the theory, this is how I would draft, but I think GMs factor in need. Adams admitted to it - I think what it is is, I prefer lip-service to "BPA" which you most often hear from GMS, because it let's me believe/hope they are factoring it in perhaps as little as possible. 

Do you think need is at all a consideration for Adams when drafting? Or that he's purely, strictly, BPA. Even though he said "we look at positon/roster" in reference to selecting two RWS 1-2. The question was specifically in regards to going 1-2 RWS in the draft. His answer was relevant to draft outlook, it was. 

But I'm actually asking - do you think Adams factors in need, at all?

Fair question.  I think he (like most GMs) factor need into their decisions, but it's "need" broadly defined -- i.e. he likely factors in a need for a forward as opposed to LW/C/RW and D as opposed to LD/RD.  But even then it's a minor factor, and it's based on broader organizational need, not immediate roster need.  E.g. the Sabres didn't draft a goalie in the later rounds despite a clear need.

I suppose the true test would've been what KA would've done if one of the top 2 defensemen had slipped to #8 and if the Sabres had that D as BPA at that point.  Of course, we'll never know.

[bunomatic]

 

28 minutes ago, Curt said:

What’s everyone’s thought of Adams comment that Quinn has some “center tendencies” and that he wouldn’t be surprised if Quinn played some C next season?  I thought it was interesting, but could this actually happen?

In one of the scouting reports they said he played all 3 forward positions and that he was versatile that way. 

[dudacek]

8 minutes ago, Thorny said:

So you think Quinn stays at RW, for the most part?

As I Sabre, I hope to god by the time he gets here, both he and Dylan Cozens are so good it would be an utter waste not to have him on the wing in the top 6.

(I also hope the Casey is a 2006-era Derek Roy 3C as well, so hope is as blind as love)

[Thorny]

3 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Fair question.  I think he (like most GMs) factor need into their decisions, but it's "need" broadly defined -- i.e. he likely factors in a need for a forward as opposed to LW/C/RW and D as opposed to LD/RD.  But even then it's a minor factor, and it's based on broader organizational need, not immediate roster need.  E.g. the Sabres didn't draft a goalie in the later rounds despite a clear need.

I suppose the true test would've been what KA would've done if one of the top 2 defensemen had slipped to #8 and if the Sabres had that D as BPA at that point.  Of course, we'll never know.

Thanks - that's fair, too. 

So it is what it is. You can see why I disagree with need being even a minor factor considering my stated position on the theory - and I can see why having a minor focus on need wouldn't be an issue for you (or dudacek). 

How much "need" we attribute to the Quinn pick probably depends on one's individual evaluation of Rossi v Quinn. Of course, the more one perceives significant separation between the two, the more I'd argue they'd be inclined to hypothesize/claim "need". 

We are both kind of doing the same thing. "We can only assume Adams thought Quinn was the better player". "I can only assume need factored in because I cannot for the life of me understand the evaluation without that". 

[Thorny]

7 minutes ago, dudacek said:

As I Sabre, I hope to god by the time he gets here, both he and Dylan Cozens are so good it would be an utter waste not to have him on the wing in the top 6.

(I also hope the Casey is a 2006-era Derek Roy 3C as well, so hope is as blind as love)

First bit I agree. 

Casey isn't going to be Derek Roy, and I'm not one of the people saying he's already busted out. Derek Roy was a statistical 1C during his heyday. I do not see Casey reaching those levels. I believe we've had this conversation before and you mentioned, "not so much in raw production, but role", and I get that, but I think Roy was above the role we asked of him for a time and that's what made him so useful in that role. He wasn't really a 3C.  Can Casey become a "real" 3C? I think it's possible, but probably about as likely as him busting out. 

I think he ends up an interchangeable, but not without use, third line-ish LWer. 

Edited October 8, 2020 by Thorny

[Weave]

4 minutes ago, Thorny said:

First bit I agree. 

Casey isn't going to be Derek Roy, and I'm not one of the people saying he's already busted out. Derek Roy was a statistical 1C during his heyday. I do not see Casey reaching those levels. I believe we've had this conversation before and you mentioned, "not so much in raw production, but role", and I get that, but I think Roy was above the role we asked of him for a time and that's what made him so useful in that role. He wasn't really a 3C.  Can Casey become a "real" 3C? I think it's possible, but probably about as likely as him busting out. 

I think he ends up an interchangeable, but not without use, third line-ish LWer. 

I'm calling the shot.  He's a bust.  His game doesn't translate with a wall on one side.

[Thorny]

4 minutes ago, Weave said:

I'm calling the shot.  He's a bust.  His game doesn't translate with a wall on one side.

For the sake of argument, if you fill in that variable in the equation as "can't play wing", he's absolutely done, IMO. 

He's too slow (foot speed? reaction time? anticipation? body fat %? I don't care) to be a centre in the National league. 

[IKnowPhysics]

Here's the video: https://www.nhl.com/predators/video/inside-war-room-for-round-1/t-277437416/c-6798447

Point of interest at 0:45.

You can see in the video when in the draft this trade was discussed by Nashville: just after Ottawa selects Sanderson at# 5.

Proposed goings on:

I think the Sabres may have wanted Sanderson.  Then when they couldn't get him, because Ottawa reached at #5, they wanted to draft Quinn.  They knew Quinn or a comparable player could be gotten at #11 (because Drysdale, Holtz, Perfetti, Rossi, and Lundell were also still on the board), so they called Nashville to trade down to pick up #37.  I believe Nashville had been advertising the #37 pick as available, as they eventually traded it (with Bonino and #70) to MIN (for Kunin and #101) near the beginning of the 2nd round.

However, Nashville knew that they were going to take Askarov and likely projected that he wouldn't be taken by any team before them at #6-10: ANA, NJD, BUF, MIN, WPG, and therefore gained little value in moving up to jump over teams that wouldn't take a G.  Nashville turned down the offer and the Sabres stayed put at 8.

I think if I were ask myself, even a few days ago, if I wanted Rossi or Quinn+#37, I would probably lean towards Quinn and #37.  The attempt to get more value didn't go, and here we are with Quinn.

[SDS]

28 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said:

Here's the video: https://www.nhl.com/predators/video/inside-war-room-for-round-1/t-277437416/c-6798447

Point of interest at 0:45.

You can see in the video when in the draft this trade was discussed by Nashville: just after Ottawa selects Sanderson at# 5.

Proposed goings on:

I think the Sabres may have wanted Sanderson.  Then when they couldn't get him, because Ottawa reached at #5, they wanted to draft Quinn.  They knew Quinn or a comparable player could be gotten at #11 (because Drysdale, Holtz, Perfetti, Rossi, and Lundell were also still on the board), so they called Nashville to trade down to pick up #37.  I believe Nashville had been advertising the #37 pick as available, as they eventually traded it (with Bonino and #70) to MIN (for Kunin and #101) near the beginning of the 2nd round.

However, Nashville knew that they were going to take Askarov and likely projected that he wouldn't be taken by any team before them at #6-10: ANA, NJD, BUF, MIN, WPG, and therefore gained little value in moving up to jump over teams that wouldn't take a G.  Nashville turned down the offer and the Sabres stayed put at 8.

I think if I were ask myself, even a few days ago, if I wanted Rossi or Quinn+#37, I would probably lean towards Quinn and #37.  The attempt to get more value didn't go, and here we are with Quinn.

Good for you to be able to understand that gibberish. I could barely hear anything.

[IKnowPhysics]

16 minutes ago, SDS said:

Good for you to be able to understand that gibberish. I could barely hear anything.

Projecting from what I saw.  I couldn't hear ***** either.

Edited October 9, 2020 by IKnowPhysics

[Brawndo]

1 hour ago, IKnowPhysics said:

Here's the video: https://www.nhl.com/predators/video/inside-war-room-for-round-1/t-277437416/c-6798447

Point of interest at 0:45.

You can see in the video when in the draft this trade was discussed by Nashville: just after Ottawa selects Sanderson at# 5.

Proposed goings on:

I think the Sabres may have wanted Sanderson.  Then when they couldn't get him, because Ottawa reached at #5, they wanted to draft Quinn.  They knew Quinn or a comparable player could be gotten at #11 (because Drysdale, Holtz, Perfetti, Rossi, and Lundell were also still on the board), so they called Nashville to trade down to pick up #37.  I believe Nashville had been advertising the #37 pick as available, as they eventually traded it (with Bonino and #70) to MIN (for Kunin and #101) near the beginning of the 2nd round.

However, Nashville knew that they were going to take Askarov and likely projected that he wouldn't be taken by any team before them at #6-10: ANA, NJD, BUF, MIN, WPG, and therefore gained little value in moving up to jump over teams that wouldn't take a G.  Nashville turned down the offer and the Sabres stayed put at 8.

I think if I were ask myself, even a few days ago, if I wanted Rossi or Quinn+#37, I would probably lean towards Quinn and #37.  The attempt to get more value didn't go, and here we are with Quinn.

Narrator: They did 

[Andrew Amerk]

16 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Narrator: They did 

Nash probably could’ve traded down and still taken Askarov. 
 

Sucks for them. 

[nfreeman]

48 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Narrator: They did 

Hello @Thorny and your BPA skepticism!

[Thorny]

5 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Hello @Thorny and your BPA skepticism!

LHD is a need. 

Additionally, it could have been a case of them only factoring in position to pick between forwards. 

I take the Sanderson news as a positive, though. Softens my stance without shifting it. 

Edited October 9, 2020 by Thorny

[Curt]

6 minutes ago, Thorny said:

LHD is a need. 

Additionally, it could have been a case of them only factoring in position to pick between forwards. 

I take the Sanderson news as a positive, though. Softens my stance without shifting it. 

Rumors pre draft were that Sanderson, Rossi, and Quinn were targets.  So this news on Sanderson is no surprise, more confirmation.

[Thorny]

5 minutes ago, Curt said:

Rumors pre draft were that Sanderson, Rossi, and Quinn were targets.  So this news on Sanderson is no surprise, more confirmation.

Would you like me to go back in time and convince myself to believe Sanderson was a target earlier?

Edited October 9, 2020 by Thorny