Solving the 2C Problem

[dudacek]

49 minutes ago, WildCard said:

Easily. Almost too easily.

People keep saying Tampa is screwed on the cap. I looked the other day and I didn't think they were really in that big of a bind. 

According to capfriendly they are already committed to 76 million next year. 
That gives them $5 million to spend, plus whatever the cap goes up by.

With that money, they have to fill the holes of UFA forward Maroon and 3 UFA defencemen (Rutta/Bogosian, Schenn and Shattenkirk) at a minimum of 2-3 million. Then they have to give raises to Cirelli, Sergachev and Cernak, each of which is on their ELC and deserves a big bump. And all of the guys they’d prefer to trade have NTCs.

They will do it because they’re Tampa, but it won’t be easy.

Edited February 26, 2020 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, nfreeman said:

Well, Palat is a LW, and Tyler Johnson, although a C, is 5'8", expensive, in decline and turns 30 this summer.

It also seems pretty unlikely that either would waive a NTC to leave Florida and come to Buffalo.

Why? Buffalo is an up and coming team and they have an opportunity here to be 2nd line players again.  They know us well and know they could help us.

[GASabresIUFAN]

13 minutes ago, WildCard said:

If you want a bridge to Cozens/Mitts, Johnson for 2-3 years would be pretty great

I think so to.  I don’t think he is in decline, I think his role and minutes have changed because of the emergence of Cirelli and Point.  Go look at JT Miller’s production in TB in a depth role vs his production now in a starring role on his new team.  I’m not saying Johnson would be a 70 pt player for us, but he could easily revert to a 50 pt player.

Edited February 26, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[WildCard]

6 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I think so to.  I don’t think he is in decline, I think his role and minutes have changed because of the emergence of Cirelli and Point.  Go look at JT Miller’s production in TB in a depth role vs his production now in a starring role on his new team.  I’m not saying Johnson would be a 70 pt player fur us, but he could easily revert to a 50 pt player.

Agreed. Johnson is barely playing 14:31/game now, which is about what we give Larsson and Vesey. He's a vet with a ton of experience playing on good teams. I would love to snag him for a few years

[Randall Flagg]

2 hours ago, Hank said:

Not true at all. Don't want to rehash it but I give him a pass on ROR. That trade pushed the window to compete a couple years. The D is much improved and I'm happy with the drafts. 

It doesn't bother you remotely that three consecutive seasons of genuinely trying to improve forward depth still has Murray acquisitions driving all offense, while the team is the single worst team in the NHL quantitatively and qualitatively at generating consistent significant scoring chances? His eye for depth forwards is legitimately the worst I've ever seen from an NHL GM, and his only two very good trades came in the midst of getting pushed around by other GMs in other moves, like when he paid Pittsburgh to take their junk and also accepted a clause that their pick in return would be upgraded if we found a way to clear Matt Hunwick's cap the following offseason. He then put himself in an ROR-like situation with his first good trade, his back against the wall, resulting in a 72 million dollar contract for a winger that his abominable middle six setup has poised for something like a 15 goal, 25 point season. 

the Hunwick cap, the cap rollover we might get because of Frolik (another dandy of an acquisition, what an eye for low-event, sub-replacement level forward talent this guy has), causing trouble even though we completely lucked out on more cap junk when Berglund, his locker-room fix, quit on the team, and with Bogosian refusing to report. Trading the first pick in the sixth round for a guaranteed-worse sixth rounder the following draft, when not ten minutes later Detroit traded a 6th round pick for a FIFTH rounder next year. An objectively mediocre prospect pool to boot, three years later, hopefully returning to a standings finish that got his predecessor fired, for the FIRST time in his tenure, after three years. One NHL center under contract for next season, and only two NHL centers in the organization today. Sitting on the roster imbalance we've been commenting on since May, which materially hurt players at each level of the organization, with D playing forward in Rochester, and legit defensemen riding the bench night after night up here while all of Frolik, Lazar, Vesey, Sheary, Rodrigues etc. got middle six playing time. None of this touching what might have been the single worst UFA class in franchise history, in the summer of 2017, which set up the environment for the unbelievable (and left-to-fester-for-an-unfathomably-long-time) season that was 2017-18.

The dude might fix it, but he has been a clownshow for three years in the meantime, creating three years of avoidable, unneccesary garbage 

[GASabresIUFAN]

9 minutes ago, dudacek said:

According to capfriendly they are already committed to 76 million next year. 
That gives them $5 million to spend, plus whatever the cap goes up by.

With that money, they have to fill the holes of UFA forward Maroon and 3 UFA defencemen (Rutta/Bogosian, Schenn and Shattenkirk) at a minimum of 2-3 million. Then they have to give raises to Cirelli, Sergachev and Cernak, each of which is on their ELC and deserves a big bump. And all of the guys they’d prefer to trade have NTCs.

They will do it because they’re Tampa, but it won’t be easy.

Your probably talking 15 mill or more to keep Cirelli, Sergachev and Cernak (the guy LA drafted with one of the picks TM traded back to them in the McNabb trade - still my favorite TM trade?).  That means at least 2 of the middle class vets need to be moved.

[Brawndo]

58 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I'd trade Risto, Mitts, a 2nd and CJ Smith for Cirelli right now. 

What if the Sabres First in 2020 is 11th Post Lottery and Tampa says we will trade Cirelli or Point straight up for it. 

What do you do? 

[Randall Flagg]

If we manage to snag a Tampa forward, whoever it is, I will be excited to watch Tampa games and learn more about them 

1 minute ago, Brawndo said:

What if the Sabres First in 2020 is 11th Post Lottery and Tampa says we will trade Cirelli or Point straight up for it. 

What do you do? 

These guys don't have comparable trade values, and a first projected around 11th isn't enough to get either. 

I'd be willing to give up 
Cozens, the first, and one of the defensemen, and a prospect 

for Point and

Mitts, the first, one of the defensemen 

for Cirelli 

This would be true for any first rounder outside of the top 2, and I'd still move it if it was top 2, but I'd ask for more from Tampa 

Edited February 26, 2020 by Randall Flagg

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

What if the Sabres First in 2020 is 11th Post Lottery and Tampa says we will trade Cirelli or Point straight up for it. 

What do you do? 

If they want our 11th and Miller for Point or Cirelli, you fax them the paperwork before they change their minds.  
 

@Randall Flagg What TM acquisition is driving our offense?  He did draft our top line, but 2 no brainers and a lucky late pick is no reason to celebrate his great talent acquisition skills.  He also gave us Bogo and KO.

Edited February 26, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[Randall Flagg]

11 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

If they want our 11th and Miller for Point or Cirelli, you fax them the paperwork before they change their minds.  
 

@Randall Flagg What TM acquisition is driving our offense?  He did draft our top line, but 2 no brainers and a lucky late pick is no reason to celebrate his great talent acquisition skills.  He also gave us Bogo and KO.

Eichel, Reinhart, and Olofsson are our offense. Kyle is the one that won the last game for us. 

GA, I don't see why you're saying that I'm celebrating TM. I'm obviously pointing out what a problem Jason's forwards have been for three years straight. Jason's middle six, that we ran with for a while before the trade deadline, is this:

Skinner: 1 goal in 24 games
Johansson: 1 goal in 19 games
Sheary: 2 goals in 19 games
Vesey: 3 goals in 14 games
Lazar: 1 goal in 19 games
Frolik: 1 goal in 17 games (it was an empty netter)

Rodrigues played too, he had 5 in his last 13, but was a GMTM guy. Would rotate with Frolik and play when players are injured, which was a lot recently.

These are our second and third lines, and have been when everyone is healthy for over a month now. It's what Jason put together. He liked this group. This is what I'm talking about, the fact that it's GMTM picks driving our offense isn't a celebration of him, it's pointing out what the problem with our team is 
 

Edited February 26, 2020 by Randall Flagg

[Ruff Around The Edges]

Would have liked to see the Sabres take a chance on this player for the #2 Center role:

 

Jack Rosolvic - Winnipeg Jets

[GASabresIUFAN]

Just now, Ruff Around The Edges said:

Would have liked to see the Sabres take a chance on this player for the #2 Center role:

 

Jack Rosolvic - Winnipeg Jets

We could have had TM not traded away the pick.

[Doohickie]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Larsson just isn’t a good enough passer to ignite Skinner’s offense

Understood, but the question came up about internal options.  Besides the new guy who we know nothing about, Larsson is pretty much the only other option.

36 minutes ago, dudacek said:

They will do it because they’re Tampa, but it won’t be easy.

They no longer have Yzerman at the helm so it will probably be even more difficult.

[GASabresIUFAN]

15 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Eichel, Reinhart, and Olofsson are our offense. Kyle is the one that won the last game for us. 

GA, I don't see why you're saying that I'm celebrating TM. I'm obviously pointing out what a problem Jason's forwards have been for three years straight. Jason's middle six, that we ran with for a while before the trade deadline, is this:

Skinner: 1 goal in 24 games
Johansson: 1 goal in 19 games
Sheary: 2 goals in 19 games
Vesey: 3 goals in 14 games
Lazar: 1 goal in 19 games
Frolik: 1 goal in 17 games (it was an empty netter)

Rodrigues played too, he had 5 in his last 13, but was a GMTM guy. Would rotate with Frolik and play when players are injured, which was a lot recently.

These are our second and third lines, and have been when everyone is healthy for over a month now. It's what Jason put together. This is what I'm talking about, the fact that it's GMTM picks driving our offense isn't a celebration of him, it's pointing out what the problem with our team is 
 

I agree that Jbot has failed us on the middle six and that stems from some mediocre to bad acquisitions and not finding a good 2C to get the best from Skinner.  I think that trend may be ending with the acquisition of Kahun and assuming Cozens makes an impact next season

The core of this team is 3 TM draftees, 1 JB draftee, and 2 JB trades (Joker and Skinner) and 1 DR draftee in Risto.  Overall we have 4 DR players, 5 TM players and 12 JB players, but only 8 Sabres Draftees.  

I don’t think adding Montour, Miller, Dahlin, Jokiharju, Lazar and Skinner is a clown show. 

Edited February 26, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[nfreeman]

53 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Why? Buffalo is an up and coming team and they have an opportunity here to be 2nd line players again.  They know us well and know they could help us.

It is far from certain that the Sabres are up and coming.  They could easily go 7-13 in their last 20 games, limp home with 80 pts and fire everybody. 

Palat plays on the 1st line with Kucherov and Point, so moving to the 2nd line in Buffalo with Skinner and crappy JB middle-sixer isn't an upgrade.  (I agree that Johnson would have the opportunity to play a bigger role.)

Whether they could help us isn't the question -- it's whether they would want to leave a perennial cup contender in low-tax, sunny Florida to join a perennial bottom dweller in cold, gray, snowy, high-tax Buffalo.

 

40 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

What if the Sabres First in 2020 is 11th Post Lottery and Tampa says we will trade Cirelli or Point straight up for it. 

What do you do? 

I would give them that pick for either of those guys in a heartbeat, but there is NFW that they trade Point, especially not for #11 overall.

[dudacek]

35 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Your probably talking 15 mill or more to keep Cirelli, Sergachev and Cernak (the guy LA drafted with one of the picks TM traded back to them in the McNabb trade - still my favorite TM trade?).  That means at least 2 of the middle class vets need to be moved.

I predict he signs Cirelli to a bridge for 2 years, 8.6 million, Sergachev to a bridge for 2 years 5.2 and Cernak settles for 1 year at just under 2. They  dump Johnson off, recouping a 2nd in the process and fill their roster out with veteran UFAs willing to play for below market value for the weather, the taxes and a chance at a cup. One of those UFAs will be Johan Larsson.

34 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

What if the Sabres First in 2020 is 11th Post Lottery and Tampa says we will trade Cirelli or Point straight up for it. 

What do you do? 

I think that’s a yes for any pick outside the top 2, no?

19 minutes ago, Ruff Around The Edges said:

Would have liked to see the Sabres take a chance on this player for the #2 Center role:

 

Jack Rosolvic - Winnipeg Jets

Ah yes, the immortal Jack Roslovic who, in his D5 season has finally produced a season with as many goals as Casey did in his D2 season, and still has 17 games left to pass him!

(Sorry, the excellence of Roslovic is a bit of a pet peeve.)

[Randall Flagg]

Just now, dudacek said:

I predict he signs Cirelli to a bridge for 2 years, 8.6 million, Sergachev to a bridge for 2 years 5.2 and Cernak settles for 1 year at just under 2. They  dump Johnson off, recouping a 2nd in the process and fill their roster out with veteran UFAs willing to play for below market value for the weather, the taxes and a chance at a cup. One of those UFAs will be Johan Larsson.

 

Yes. But, we still have time to hope their new GM is an idiot, and I'm going to take advantage of that hope 

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Brawndo said:

What if the Sabres First in 2020 is 11th Post Lottery and Tampa says we will trade Cirelli or Point straight up for it. 

What do you do? 

Trade it immediately. 

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I agree that Jbot has failed us on the middle six and that stems from some mediocre to bad acquisitions and not finding a good 2C to get the best from Skinner.  I think that trend may be ending with the acquisition of Kahun and assuming Cozens makes an impact next season

The core of this team is 3 TM draftees, 1 JB draftee, and 2 JB trades (Joker and Skinner) and 1 DR draftee in Risto.  Overall we have 4 DR players, 5 TM players and 12 JB players, but only 8 Sabres Draftees.  

I don’t think adding Montour, Miller, Dahlin, Jokiharju, Lazar and Skinner is a clown show. 

I like how you're trying to downplay the 2 year ***** up of botterill by suggesting the middle 6 is the problem. It's the top 6. We have probably 4 top 6 players with no idea where or how to get the other 2. 

Name a top 6 forward other than skinner botterill has identified and acquired in the last 3 years. There are none. It's nice he fixed the defense but the forwards continue to be a mess and it's only compounded by his mediocre drafting. Also adding in Dahlin is like giving gmtm credit for eichel. 

So we 3 defenders and skinner. 

Or are we just gonna sit  around for 2 years for Cozens? 

Edited February 26, 2020 by LGR4GM

[LGR4GM]

39 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 

I think that’s a yes for any pick outside the top 2, no?

I'd probably say top 3 but yea, there's not a lot of doubt I'd rather get a solid 2c over the wingers from pick 4-9

[LGR4GM]

Let's list failed or underwhelming botterill forward acquisitions....

Frolic, Smith, Nolan, sheary, I'd include vesey but we can leave him out,  sobotka, tage, so far mitts, I'm missing more I know it. 

[Huckleberry]

Personally I think Cozens will grab that 2C spot next year.   

[DarthEbriate]

Josefson

[Taro T]

16 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I like how you're trying to downplay the 2 year ***** up of botterill by suggesting the middle 6 is the problem. It's the top 6. We have probably 4 top 6 players with no idea where or how to get the other 2. 

Name a top 6 forward other than skinner botterill has identified and acquired in the last 3 years. There are none. It's nice he fixed the defense but the forwards continue to be a mess and it's only compounded by his mediocre drafting. 

Or are we just gonna sit  around for 2 years for Cozens? 

Realizing this is a minor feather in his cap, but Botterill was smart enough to NOT include Olofsson in any of the deals he did make.  Would be very surprised if there weren't several GMs trying to get him.

[Brawndo]

27 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Yes. But, we still have time to hope their new GM is an idiot, and I'm going to take advantage of that hope 

By trading a First for Barclay Goodrow, there is hope