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sweetlou

Reinhart, sign him or trade him?

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7 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

Yes, it’s a better team with awful special teams. Something an assistant coach change could fix. Hard to do that mid season though. 

I dont believe a new special teams coach will fix the PK entirely, maybe a marginal improvement.  They're ranked 10th worst in high danger scoring chances on the PK, could be better, but not historically terrible.   

Their xGA on the PK is 36, while they've given up 47.   At 36 goals against, their PK% jumps from 74 to 80%... Which would put them in the middle of the league.

They say your best penalty killer is your goalie.   Fix the goalie situation, add a 2C and they're easily in the playoff mix.

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On 3/5/2020 at 12:05 PM, Ducky said:

Ehlers can skate backwards faster than Sam forwards and gets O zone with ease. He is signed for 5 more seasons after this one at 6m per. Haven't seen him play much but from what I read on here, Ehlers' D game is better as well.

I would trade Roslo for Mittelstadt though.

Mitts' ceiling is still considerably higher so I wouldn't make that move. 

You are probably right though that Ehlers is the more valuable player between him and Sam.

Lucky for you, Botterill is a dunce, because Chevy was willing to move Ehlers for Risto in the summer and Botts balked. 

Edited by Thorny

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5 hours ago, pi2000 said:

It tells you who is on the ice for more net goals for/against at even strength when compared to teammates.   It only compares players against eachother on the same team,...  who contributes positively and negatively to the team's even strength goal differential.

I think people really do understand what it is that you are doing there.  It’s just maybe not as clever or valuable as you are making it out to be.  It’s +/- adjusted for ice time.

It’s more useful that regular +/- but not much.  It doesn’t take into account goalie performance (teammate or opposition), quality of linemates, quality of opposition, or offensive/defensive usage.

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1 hour ago, Curt said:

I think people really do understand what it is that you are doing there.  It’s just maybe not as clever or valuable as you are making it out to be.  It’s +/- adjusted for ice time.

It’s more useful that regular +/- but not much.  It doesn’t take into account goalie performance (teammate or opposition), quality of linemates, quality of opposition, or offensive/defensive usage.

Wow really? It’s even more near useless of a stat than I originally thought. I see the skewed limitations of it. 

But hey, maybe you just don’t understand the stat. 😂

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2 hours ago, Curt said:

I think people really do understand what it is that you are doing there.  It’s just maybe not as clever or valuable as you are making it out to be.  It’s +/- adjusted for ice time.

It’s more useful that regular +/- but not much.  It doesn’t take into account goalie performance (teammate or opposition), quality of linemates, quality of opposition, or offensive/defensive usage.

I never said it did any of those things.

It's adjusted plus minus to see who's helping contribute to the team's success or struggles at even strength.

Looking at a team like Detroit, I find it interesting to look at which players are anchors vs which players are secretly having good seasons even though their raw +/- might look terrible, eg Dylan Larkin is a -23 but a +8 TRpm, vs Christopher Ehn who's a -22 but a -10 TRpm.

 

Edited by pi2000

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I'd trade Sam for a top 5 pick and prospect... or a legit 2C... Sam is a good fit on the right team... Sabres are not the right team and he is too affable.

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On 3/5/2020 at 10:05 AM, Ducky said:

Ehlers can skate backwards faster than Sam forwards and gets O zone with ease. He is signed for 5 more seasons after this one at 6m per. Haven't seen him play much but from what I read on here, Ehlers' D game is better as well.

To stay on topic, is there argument with this comment above or general agreement? If there's agreement with it how do you justify offering Sam more than Ehlers? He should get less.

Winnipeg would never do it, but would anyone here not trade Reinhart for Ehlers and if so why? 

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Daily Reinhart Update 3/6/2020:  

0 goals, 0 assists, 0 shots, 0 hits, 0 blocked shots

Was this guy even on the ice?

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4 hours ago, Curt said:

Daily Reinhart Update 3/6/2020:  

0 goals, 0 assists, 0 shots, 0 hits, 0 blocked shots

Was this guy even on the ice?

His agent instructed him to avoid injury at all costs.

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13 hours ago, pi2000 said:

I dont believe a new special teams coach will fix the PK entirely, maybe a marginal improvement.  They're ranked 10th worst in high danger scoring chances on the PK, could be better, but not historically terrible.   

Their xGA on the PK is 36, while they've given up 47.   At 36 goals against, their PK% jumps from 74 to 80%... Which would put them in the middle of the league.

They say your best penalty killer is your goalie.   Fix the goalie situation, add a 2C and they're easily in the playoff mix.

Fair assessment, agrees with eye tests too

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On 3/6/2020 at 6:55 PM, Thorny said:

Mitts' ceiling is still considerably higher so I wouldn't make that move. 

You are probably right though that Ehlers is the more valuable player between him and Sam.

Lucky for you, Botterill is a dunce, because Chevy was willing to move Ehlers for Risto in the summer and Botts balked. 

Chevy isn't stupid enough to do that and if you believe it, how many of Chevy's trades were talked about before they happened? None that I can think of.

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On 3/7/2020 at 1:29 AM, PerreaultForever said:

To stay on topic, is there argument with this comment above or general agreement? If there's agreement with it how do you justify offering Sam more than Ehlers? He should get less.

Winnipeg would never do it, but would anyone here not trade Reinhart for Ehlers and if so why? 

What was the cap when Ehlers signed and what is the cap when Sam signs?

Also, Ehlers is on a sweet deal just like Scheif, Pionk and Morrissey.

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I dunno, trading Sam does not exist in a vacuum. Gotta remember whom is either signing or trading him. I think JBot can do less damage signing him rather than trading him. He may overpay him by 1 mil, but if he trades for him I think it's fairly obvious the return would be disastrous. 

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38 minutes ago, Ducky said:

What was the cap when Ehlers signed and what is the cap when Sam signs?

Also, Ehlers is on a sweet deal just like Scheif, Pionk and Morrissey.

The answer is $75M, Ehlers $6M contract was 8% of the cap.

Next season the cap will reportedly be $84-88M.

So if Reinhart signs for 8% of the cap, that would be $6.75 to 7M.

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I posted this last night....

Detroit Is in a rebuild. Dylan Larkin is their “Jack Eichel”. If they were to move him, it would have to hurt the other team just like it would hurt them to move him. They would demand significant pieces back.

Cozens, Reinhart, and 2021 1st for Dylan Larkin.

Sabres get that 2C for years. With a fair contract at 6.1 cap hit for three more seasons. Sabres become instant playoff contenders. (As long as the holes on the team get filled well).

center spine would be Eichel, Larkin, Kahun (maybe), and Larsson (if we re-sign him)

Detriot gets a promising center prospect who hasn’t played a second in the NHL and is completely unproven. He could or could not develop into an effective top 6 NHL center. They get a veteran winger who produces and can play on the top six with very good vision and passing. They get a future pick to help stock up on their pipeline.

Now Detroit may want more, because Larkin is their Eichel, but IF JB offered that .... should Detroit take it?

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1 hour ago, Zamboni said:

I posted this last night....

Detroit Is in a rebuild. Dylan Larkin is their “Jack Eichel”. If they were to move him, it would have to hurt the other team just like it would hurt them to move him. They would demand significant pieces back.

Cozens, Reinhart, and 2021 1st for Dylan Larkin.

Sabres get that 2C for years. With a fair contract at 6.1 cap hit for three more seasons. Sabres become instant playoff contenders. (As long as the holes on the team get filled well).

center spine would be Eichel, Larkin, Kahun (maybe), and Larsson (if we re-sign him)

Detriot gets a promising center prospect who hasn’t played a second in the NHL and is completely unproven. He could or could not develop into an effective top 6 NHL center. They get a veteran winger who produces and can play on the top six with very good vision and passing. They get a future pick to help stock up on their pipeline.

Now Detroit may want more, because Larkin is their Eichel, but IF JB offered that .... should Detroit take it?

Larkin is not Eichel.

Statistically, Sam is his equal. Cozens projects to be a similar-level player.

Larkin will be a UFA in three years. You have minimum of two more years control over Sam and the potential for several more depending on what direction you take this summer. Cozens is under your control for 7 more years minimum, the 1st three very cheaply.

I like Larkin a lot and think he is exactly what the Sabres need, and find it hard to picture a scenario where Detroit would trade him. Sam and a sweetener, yes. Cozens and a sweetener, yes. 

But those two players together is too high a price.Throwing in a first on top of it is bad asset management.

Edited by dudacek

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17 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Larkin is not Eichel.

Statistically, Sam is his equal. Cozens projects to be a similar-level player.

Larkin will be a UFA in three years. You have minimum of two more years control over Sam and the potential for several more depending on what direction you take this summer. Cozens is under your control for 7 more years minimum, the 1st three very cheaply.

I like Larkin a lot and think he is exactly what the Sabres need, and find it hard to picture a scenario where Detroit would trade him. Sam and a sweetener, yes. Cozens and a sweetener, yes. 

But those two players together is too high a price.Throwing in a first on top of it is bad asset management.

I did not type ... Larkin is Eichel.

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3 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

I did not type ... Larkin is Eichel.

Wasn’t trying to imply you did.

I was implying your offer would need more than Larkin coming back.

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33 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Wasn’t trying to imply you did.

I was implying your offer would need more than Larkin coming back.

I personally wouldn’t do that trade. But IF Detroit was entertaining the idea of moving him, they would want and probably get Significant pieces. Not as much as say a McDavid, or Eichel trade obviously. But it’s gonna hurt the team who trades for him to a degree. But the plus side is you get a very good center who on a deep team can play 2C, and spot duty on the top line if your 1C goes cold or gets injured. It’s intriguing. 

Edited by Zamboni

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10 hours ago, Ducky said:

Chevy isn't stupid enough to do that and if you believe it, how many of Chevy's trades were talked about before they happened? None that I can think of.

It was mentioned repeatedly by a reputable source that the deal was on the table. 

Chad DeDominicis has connections within the Sabres organization and doesn't just spew crap. He was the first to break the Sabres deals on deadline day, he's someone I trust to get the info correct. 

Chevy is a great GM. He has made plenty of mistakes - he's not infallible. He was let off the hook from making a potential one there. It wasn't Risto straight up, it was something like Risto and a pick/prospect. 

You don't have to trust a source I'm guessing you aren't familiar with if you don't wanna, but to me he's proven his legitimacy. 

Edited by Thorny

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At this point I lean toward trade him but I don't trust Botterill to get back equal value so I honestly don't know what the right thing is. I guess that probably means keep him and hope the next GM can make a better deal.

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11 hours ago, Curt said:

The answer is $75M, Ehlers $6M contract was 8% of the cap.

Next season the cap will reportedly be $84-88M.

So if Reinhart signs for 8% of the cap, that would be $6.75 to 7M.

His salary shouldn't be based on a percentage just because a number rises. It has to be measured in terms of value. If Ehlers is better I don't see how you make an argument to pay another guy more just because the cap went up. presumably you want your extra cap money for additional talent. 

So, for example, you say Ehlers was worth 6 million and so Sam not quite as good hypothetically worth 5.5 million if it was at that time. Then take that 5.5 million and bump it up by the cap increase percentage. Then the cap is what, roughly 10 % higher so he gets an additional 10 % of that 5.5 million which makes it just over 6 million. No reason to pay a dime more. 

Kyle Connor signed just this year for 7 million. You pay him more than him and that's just f'n nuts. 

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25 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

His salary shouldn't be based on a percentage just because a number rises. It has to be measured in terms of value. If Ehlers is better I don't see how you make an argument to pay another guy more just because the cap went up. presumably you want your extra cap money for additional talent. 

So, for example, you say Ehlers was worth 6 million and so Sam not quite as good hypothetically worth 5.5 million if it was at that time. Then take that 5.5 million and bump it up by the cap increase percentage. Then the cap is what, roughly 10 % higher so he gets an additional 10 % of that 5.5 million which makes it just over 6 million. No reason to pay a dime more. 

Kyle Connor signed just this year for 7 million. You pay him more than him and that's just f'n nuts. 

I was just doing the math.  I wasn’t making any judgment about who is worth what.

I’m so sick of reading about Reinhart and his impending contract/trade that there is no way I’m getting into it.

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5 hours ago, Curt said:

I’m so sick of reading about Reinhart and his impending contract/trade that there is no way I’m getting into it.

Just asking, but then why are you reading a topic entitled "Reinhart, sign him or trade him" ?

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