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sweetlou

Reinhart, sign him or trade him?

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1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Reinhart and Nylander were drafted in the same year.

Sam’s career numbers are 109 goals, 255 points, Willie’s 86, 221. Sam has effectively played one more year.

Sam’s career highs are 25 and 65, Willie’s 31 and 61. They both play W with studs. Pretty hard for Botterill to argue Willie is a step above, IMO.

My step-up/leveling is admittedly #FancyEbriateStats based solely on Sam's .63 Pts/G vs. Nylander's .72 Pts/G.   ;-]

But when I look a Nylander in a little more detail, I think I'd argue he should have even better production numbers, and is probably a touch overpaid for his play (which would mean Sam should also not get up that high in salary). Nylander's RFA-unsigned/holdout year resulted in a 7/20/27 season in 57 games played, which is way off his averages. He also played a full minute less per game and had dismal PP numbers compared to his normal production. His Pts/G and overall points should really be higher. Reinhart might "disappear" for games at a time, but at the end of the year his numbers are close year-in and year-out. Nylander has a definite low season.

I'm starting to really think 6.5M has to be the ceiling, and like you say, hopefully we get a Teravainen-style deal. That would allow more flexibility for a 2C. And Dahlin.

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Sam’s agent is going to counter that he shows up for every season and every game, unlike Nylander: peak p/g isn’t the be-all, his reliability means something.
And you have to factor the RFA vs UFA question. Sam is going to (correctly) argue the Sabres got a discount the past two years, which he took in good faith, betting he would prove he’s a legitimate first liner.

Its an interesting one, and the term matters, along with the inflation tied to it.$7 million per is certainly not an unreasonable ask for 7 years. I’m not sure you’d could even get him for 4 years at $6 million. He could probably get near that for a year in arbitration, and I’m sure the Sabres would want to avoid arbitration at all costs.

But the 8.7 (I think) Yerdon projected over a max term looks ridiculous to me.

Edited by dudacek

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1 hour ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

EHLERS!!

😎

 

*bring him to me JBOT and all is forgiven

Would you trade Risto, Marcus Davidsson and a 2nd for Ehlers and Mason Appleton? 

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2 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Would you trade Risto, Marcus Davidsson and a 2nd for Ehlers and Mason Appleton? 

Yes.  Absolutely.  In a heartbeat.

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11 minutes ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

Yes.  Absolutely.  In a heartbeat.

There was One NHL GM who turned that down that offer.

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6 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

There was One NHL GM who turned that down that offer.

That jackass should have been fired on the spot.

And I know who you are talking about.  The only jackass GM who has the Sabre assets to trade.  This aint some NHL2021 online game thingie, eh!

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If we can get Sam for 6-6.5 million then I keep him. If not Id rather have two guys like Tuch from Vegas and Anderson from Blue Jackets.

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While I can appreciate Dudacek’s cogent arguments and reseaons for bringing this wonderful thread back from the dead, I must admit I would love to see more from Perrault, Ligr and PI. Their debates on TPRMs and Reinharts soft play around the boards, first man off the ice, etc.  It’s like catnip during this Covid crisis.  I implore you PI, come back.  Stand up and deliver a bevy of reasons why an advantageous cap scenario is still not cause to resign Sam.  Let’s get this party started. 

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8 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

While I can appreciate Dudacek’s cogent arguments and reseaons for bringing this wonderful thread back from the dead, I must admit I would love to see more from Perrault, Ligr and PI. Their debates on TPRMs and Reinharts soft play around the boards, first man off the ice, etc.  It’s like catnip during this Covid crisis.  I implore you PI, come back.  Stand up and deliver a bevy of reasons why an advantageous cap scenario is still not cause to resign Sam.  Let’s get this party started. 

Sam is not soft around the boards.

7 for 7 and I’m happy.

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2 hours ago, SwampD said:

Sam is not soft around the boards.

7 for 7 and I’m happy.

If that's all it takes, I'm fricking ecstatic.

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On 6/11/2020 at 8:56 AM, nfreeman said:

If they get Reino to re-sign at $6MM to $6.5MM x 7 years or so, I think the much-criticized bridge deal JB gave him will be vindicated.

There's no chance he signs for that low, unfortunately. I'm hoping it comes in below 8. 

I struggle to see why Reinhart won't elect for arbitration twice and head to UFA. 

I know Skinner was UFA, but IMO there isn't a snowball's chance in hell Sam commits long term to a deal 50% cheaper than Skinner's after putting up more than 200% the points last season. 

- - - 

But point of argument, yes, I will no longer criticize JB if Reino signs for that, the bridge would indeed be vindicated in that case. 

Edited by Thorny

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On 6/11/2020 at 10:15 AM, dudacek said:

I’ve done some of the research and think you are very much in the ballpark. It’s hard to say how COVID will affect the market, but I tend to think it’s not going to have a huge impact on young core RFAs signing long-term. William Nylander is one of your better comparables, IMO.

Agree on Nylander - who's making 7 mil per. Add two years of inflation, not to mention Sam's arguable greater value to this team than Willie, and we are certainly looking at > 7 mil. 

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On 6/11/2020 at 3:55 PM, Brawndo said:

There was One NHL GM who turned that down that offer.

NO?!!!

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1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Agree on Nylander - who's making 7 mil per. Add two years of inflation, not to mention Sam's arguable greater value to this team than Willie, and we are certainly looking at > 7 mil. 

I think at least 24 NHL GMs would take Nylander over Reino though.

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I would like to see him in at around 6.5 to 6.75.  I think Sam is a hell of a player and he's a core player for this team.  He's a guy that has improved each of the last two seasons fairly steadily.  If we're going to finally end this ***** streak of nine going on ten seasons not in the playoffs, he's going to play a part of it.  I'm a huge fan, and I'd rather see him here, than elsewhere.  Sign him. 

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1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

I think at least 24 NHL GMs would take Nylander over Reino though.

Hard to say, but could be. 

Still, I feel that would more/less balance out the position of strength Reinhart holds in negotiations. GMs may not be lining up to offer fair value for Sam in a trade. We may NEED to keep him, and he's getting perilously close to UFA.

I still say, if Nylander got 7, Reinhart is going to ask for more than that after factoring in inflation. And I still think Skinner's deal factors in somehow, too.

Isn't Eichel's deal the closest to a long term value deal we've seen from JB? People would look at 6-6.5 for Sam and say, "wow, great job, Jason." It's not really shade, it's just, I'll believe it when I see it. 

Edited by Thorny

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Question for the contract-savvy: If Reinhart goes to arbitration this ...offseason, whenever it is... does he get a 1-yr with UFA status ala Rodriques?

 

If yes -- why wouldn't he do that for maximum leverage going into the expansion draft? As opposed to getting a NMC slapped on him and getting stuck here in Hockey Purgeatory (he's had 3 GMs and 4 coaches). Even though Jack is fun to be a linemate with, hockey can also be fun on teams set up to win....

Also if yes as a follow-up, then what do you -- let him walk to Seattle - but allowing you to protect everyone else? Trade him elsewhere to avoid losing him? Fight like heck to sign him to a long-term extension and protect him from the expansion?

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3 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

Question for the contract-savvy: If Reinhart goes to arbitration this ...offseason, whenever it is... does he get a 1-yr with UFA status ala Rodriques?

 

If yes -- why wouldn't he do that for maximum leverage going into the expansion draft? As opposed to getting a NMC slapped on him and getting stuck here in Hockey Purgeatory (he's had 3 GMs and 4 coaches). Even though Jack is fun to be a linemate with, hockey can also be fun on teams set up to win....

Also if yes as a follow-up, then what do you -- let him walk to Seattle - but allowing you to protect everyone else? Trade him elsewhere to avoid losing him? Fight like heck to sign him to a long-term extension and protect him from the expansion?

He would have to sign a 2 year contract to reach UFA status. He's not a UFA until 26. 

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9 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

let him walk to Seattle

This should not happen under any circumstances.  If they can't sign him, they have to trade him.  (And they should sign him.)

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10 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

He would have to sign a 2 year contract to reach UFA status. He's not a UFA until 26. 

Right, right, right --- because Rodrigues was 22 on his ELC...  yup. I knew something didn't add up. Thanks!

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1 hour ago, Eleven said:

This should not happen under any circumstances.  If they can't sign him, they have to trade him.  (And they should sign him.)

The Reinhart situation is only one of many hugely important events coming up in short order for our new GM.

Will be interesting to see what he does.  

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2 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

Right, right, right --- because Rodrigues was 22 on his ELC...  yup. I knew something didn't add up. Thanks!

I think it's 7 years of NHL service or when you turn 27 (26?) To become a ufa. 

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Trade

 

 

.....in that bridge contract Sam for a 7 year, 7.25 mil per deal with the Sabres.

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I think if we convince Reinhart that 6.75mil for 6 years is a good deal we should be happy. 

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