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LGR4GM

Casey Mittelstadt, deep breath, he's fine

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So don’t trade number 7 for Matt Moulson or Mike Hoffman.

Look, I think we understand the potential pitfalls of trading the pick, we’re just saying if there is a player on the market who fits into the core and salary structure, then why not?

If the Flyers suddenly dangled Sean Couturier, pick 7 is theirs

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10 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

45 sounds correct to me if he is given an actual rw. No offense to Okposo but he can't keep up with Casey. Sheary was also disappointing as I felt he missed a lot and barely drove production. 

As to your Reinhart only went up 5 points theory, you think Dahlin will only get 49 points next year? 

But Dahlin is a far better prospect than the others in question. My point regarding Mittelstadt was that, it''ll be tough for him to basically double his point production, especially considering Reinhart, as the better prospect, went up by 5 points.

Edited by Thorny

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9 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Casey has 30 points in 83 games. I think with another summer and a better winger, 45 points in 82 games is reasonable for year 2. 

It's certainly a reasonable outcome, but I don't see it as a reasonable expectation. That's just my view. I'd put my expectations for him at around 35-40. 

After Botterill set the expectation for Casey WAY too high this season, I'm really, really hoping this season he's planning for the worst re: Casey and hoping for the best. 

Edited by Thorny

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As long as Mitts is put into a position to succeed, he will. I have no doubt.

He knows he can do better. I really feel Housley and the coaching staff, F’ed up rookie year.

45-50 points is not unreasonable at all. As long as he’s put with the right linemates and asked to do things he’s capable of.

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3 hours ago, Thorny said:

It's certainly a reasonable outcome, but I don't see it as a reasonable expectation. That's just my view. I'd put my expectations for him at around 35-40. 

After Botterill set the expectation for Casey WAY too high this season, I'm really, really hoping this season he's planning for the worst re: Casey and hoping for the best. 

If Casey is our 3C next season, I don't see how we can expect 45 points.  He'll need a very good winger to get there, and unless JBott is a miracle worker this offseason, I don't see this team with 5 really solid wingers on the roster. 

As you say, might he get 45 points?  Sure, he's got the talent.  But expect it?  Not without an big jump in talent on the wing.

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9 hours ago, Weave said:

If Casey is our 3C next season, I don't see how we can expect 45 points.  He'll need a very good winger to get there, and unless JBott is a miracle worker this offseason, I don't see this team with 5 really solid wingers on the roster. 

As you say, might he get 45 points?  Sure, he's got the talent.  But expect it?  Not without an big jump in talent on the wing.

We easily have 4 now in Skinner, Reinhart, Sheary, and Olofsson for starters. ERod would be 5 if they left him at wing, then add a Donskoi as a free agent got 6. Possibly add Thompson or Nylander if they develop.

We need more finish but this is not a bad group.

Edited by GASabresIUFAN

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35 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

We easily have 4 now in Skinner, Reinhart, Sheary, and Olofsson for starters. ERod would be 5 if they left him at wing, then add a Donskoi as a free agent got 6. Possibly add Thompson or Nylander if they develop.

We need more finish but this is not a bad group.

We don’t know that Olofsson is going to maintain the play for more than a couple of weeks, Skinner is no guarantee, and we’ll disagree on the optimism about Sheary.

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Yep.  If sheary is in our top 6 again we’re in trouble.

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I think people have an over inflated view of what 2nd and 3rd line wingers produce.

56 minutes ago, Weave said:

We don’t know that Olofsson is going to maintain the play for more than a couple of weeks, Skinner is no guarantee, and we’ll disagree on the optimism about Sheary.

 

45 minutes ago, Derrico said:

Yep.  If sheary is in our top 6 again we’re in trouble.

Sheary finished with 34 pts including 14 goals.  He finished 45th in the NHL in points among LWs which puts him firmly in the middle of the pack for 2nd line LW.  His 14 goals was tied for 51st.  So not great, but not terrible either.  Hopefull he'll be on our 3rd line next year as this roster continues to improve.  

As to Olofsson, admittedly we have a small NHL sample size, but this isn't some 19 year old kid.  He is a 23 year old experienced pro who has produced exceptionally in two of the best leagues in the world (SHL and AHL) and showed he can produce and play with top players in the NHL.  Is it really to hard to imagine that playing with Jack he'll score 25 goals?

I agree with have to get Skinner signed, but our problem really wasn't the wingers, it was having unproductive centers behind Jack.  If we get a legit 2nd line center, slot Casey as the 3rd center, the wingers fall into place.  We should be able to roll 3 productive lines next year.

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Sheary is also 56th in points per game for left wingers.  We have to be better than that.

Edited by Derrico
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20 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I think people have an over inflated view of what 2nd and 3rd line wingers produce.

 

Sheary finished with 34 pts including 14 goals.  He finished 45th in the NHL in points among LWs which puts him firmly in the middle of the pack for 2nd line LW.  His 14 goals was tied for 51st.  So not great, but not terrible either.  Hopefull he'll be on our 3rd line next year as this roster continues to improve.  

As to Olofsson, admittedly we have a small NHL sample size, but this isn't some 19 year old kid.  He is a 23 year old experienced pro who has produced exceptionally in two of the best leagues in the world (SHL and AHL) and showed he can produce and play with top players in the NHL.  Is it really to hard to imagine that playing with Jack he'll score 25 goals?

I agree with have to get Skinner signed, but our problem really wasn't the wingers, it was having unproductive centers behind Jack.  If we get a legit 2nd line center, slot Casey as the 3rd center, the wingers fall into place.  We should be able to roll 3 productive lines next year.

In the context of putting Mittelstadt in the best position to succeed, we need better than Sheary, an Olofsson that plays like the last 2 weeks of the season (no sure thing, but hopeful nonetheless), and Skinner needs to re-sign.  There is some hope, but it's just that.  Hope.  It's not rosey.  There are significant unknowns, only one of which is upgrading Sheary.

 

What primary got me to respond was your comment that the 4 wingers you posted were not a bad group.  This is the group that played the 2nd half of the season with the worst record in the NHL.  It can't be a good group and have that distinction.

Edited by Weave
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On 4/5/2019 at 9:42 PM, LTS said:

What I saw from Mittlestadt was a kid whose mind plays at NHL speed but the body does not.  He tried to move as fast as required and failed more often than not.  The positive of this being that he's going to find that pace and when(if) it clicks he'll be downright deadly.

He has the capacity to stick handle in a phone booth.  My hope is that it develops that he does it.

i thought a 20 yr olds body would be moving fast and the mind slow...

Excellent hockey skills ur correct....but thats gonna have to overcome not great speed and strength

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Strength is probably the easiest thing to fix on a young player. 

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57 minutes ago, calti said:

i thought a 20 yr olds body would be moving fast and the mind slow...

Excellent hockey skills ur correct....but thats gonna have to overcome not great speed and strength

Yes, he needs to get a lot stronger but he's fast as hell on skates.

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3 hours ago, Derrico said:

Sheary is also 56th in points per game for left wingers.  We have to be better than that.

He's fine if we upgrade the wing on the other side. He can't be our 3rd best winger, but as a 4th/5th tweener he's perfectly fine. He's basically the living embodiment of middle-6 winger. 

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1 hour ago, Ross Rhea said:

Yes, he needs to get a lot stronger but he's fast as hell on skates.

Casey always look "quick" to me, rather than "fast". 

1 hour ago, TrueBlueGED said:

He's fine if we upgrade the wing on the other side. He can't be our 3rd best winger, but as a 4th/5th tweener he's perfectly fine. He's basically the living embodiment of middle-6 winger. 

Agree, but if centre isn't upgraded either I don't think it makes a particularly strong 2nd line:

Sheary - Mittelstadt - Upgraded W

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35 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Casey always look "quick" to me, rather than "fast". 

Agree, but if centre isn't upgraded either I don't think it makes a particularly strong 2nd line:

Sheary - Mittelstadt - Upgraded W

If Mittelstadt is still our 2C next year, Botterill has completely and utterly failed. 

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On 4/12/2019 at 1:49 PM, dudacek said:

Carolina used a high pick as the centrepiece to get a young Jordan Staal, Columbus and LA to get a young Jeff Carter, Blues to get Brayden Schenn, Kings to get Mike Richards (Schenn was an unproven, highly touted prospect with similar value), Calgary to get Dougie Hamilton...those are the types of trades I would entertain.

Can we agree that there is no "proven" way of doing things and getting it right? Can we agree that the Cup is the ultimate goal? Or at very least, setting ourselves up for that opportunity?

So, are we to be Carolina whom traded away a high pick to get Staal(7yrs ago and where did that get them)? Or, are we Pitt whom drafted 8th and took Pouliot instead of Trouba?

Are we Jackets that traded for Carter (who only played 39 games and was traded again) and that pick turned out to be Couturier?  Or are we LA who traded for Carter, giving up a 1st and Jack Johnson, then going on to win a Cup? The 1st LA gave up turned into Marko Dano.

Are we the Blues (we are singing the blues nowadays)? They were already a playoff team and Schenn hasn't pushed them over the top. Then they trade us a 1st for ROR and were at the bottom of the league until Binnington came along. Will they finally make it? I hope not because we'll hear about how ROR was the reason they won the Cup for the next 50yrs.

Where is Dougie now? In Carolina and boston used the 1st rd pick to take Senyshyn while the next pick was Barzal.

Only LA has come out of this all with a Cup. Let's throw anotheer wrench into this.....they did it because the players performed on the ice (here's the wrench....was it the coach who got the most out of them, LOL)

So, whether we entertain the idea of a trade, or we would rather use the pick, it all comes down to a guessing game that I wouldn't put any substantial bet on in Vegas that we'll get it right.

The best guess might just turn out to ......Lavioe 😎

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1 hour ago, TrueBlueGED said:

If Mittelstadt is still our 2C next year, Botterill has completely and utterly failed. 

For clarity's sake, Mittelstadt wasn't our 2C this year. He averaged 13:27 a game, behind Sobotka's 14:11, Johan Larsson at 14:18 and the guy who ended up our actual 2C, Evan Rodrigues at 15:49.

I say this only because the myth persists: the only stretch where Casey was used anywhere near a 2C happened in February, when he was used for more than 15 minutes in 7 of 8 games. It happened just 9 times in the 50 games before that and twice more the rest of the year.

Your point still stands, except for the caveat I would accept the addition of an elite 3C and a legit 1st-line winger in lieu.

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12 minutes ago, dudacek said:

For clarity's sake, Mittelstadt wasn't our 2C this year. He averaged 13:27 a game, behind Sobotka's 14:11, Johan Larsson at 14:18 and the guy who ended up our actual 2C, Evan Rodrigues at 15:49.

I say this only because the myth persists: the only stretch where Casey was used anywhere near a 2C happened in February, when he was used for more than 15 minutes in 7 of 8 games. It happened just 9 times in the 50 games before that and twice more the rest of the year.

Your point still stands, except for the caveat I would accept the addition of an elite 3C and a legit 1st-line winger in lieu.

He wasn't the 3 by ice time, but do you think Botterill had designed it that way? I think Botterill had him penciled in at 2 and it just worked out differently because he obviously wasn't ready for it. 

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1 hour ago, TrueBlueGED said:

He wasn't the 3 by ice time, but do you think Botterill had designed it that way? I think Botterill had him penciled in at 2 and it just worked out differently because he obviously wasn't ready for it. 

Yea, I think he wanted Berglund as 2c. Which was stupid but he didn't feed Casey to the wolves out of thinking he was 2c.

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12 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

We easily have 4 now in Skinner, Reinhart, Sheary, and Olofsson for starters. ERod would be 5 if they left him at wing, then add a Donskoi as a free agent got 6. Possibly add Thompson or Nylander if they develop.

We need more finish but this is not a bad group.

You are big on Donskoi I see.   Has it got so bad that we are targeting UFA’s that cannot make the top 12 forwards in a playoff series?  I know he has grit and has scored goals before but DeBoer referenced his 33 game scoring drought and inconsistency as to why he is not playing.  If he is available late in FA to fill out the roster maybe.  

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10 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

You are big on Donskoi I see.   Has it got so bad that we are targeting UFA’s that cannot make the top 12 forwards in a playoff series?  I know he has grit and has scored goals before but DeBoer referenced his 33 game scoring drought and inconsistency as to why he is not playing.  If he is available late in FA to fill out the roster maybe.  

I actually think they use him wrong.  They use him in a bottom six checking role.  Here he’d be used more in a scoring role. While he isn’t William Karlsson, that is the analogy I’d draw.

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On 4/13/2019 at 5:09 PM, dudacek said:

For clarity's sake, Mittelstadt wasn't our 2C this year. He averaged 13:27 a game, behind Sobotka's 14:11, Johan Larsson at 14:18 and the guy who ended up our actual 2C, Evan Rodrigues at 15:49.

I say this only because the myth persists: the only stretch where Casey was used anywhere near a 2C happened in February, when he was used for more than 15 minutes in 7 of 8 games. It happened just 9 times in the 50 games before that and twice more the rest of the year.

Your point still stands, except for the caveat I would accept the addition of an elite 3C and a legit 1st-line winger in lieu.

 

On 4/13/2019 at 5:23 PM, TrueBlueGED said:

He wasn't the 3 by ice time, but do you think Botterill had designed it that way? I think Botterill had him penciled in at 2 and it just worked out differently because he obviously wasn't ready for it. 

 

On 4/13/2019 at 6:43 PM, LGR4GM said:

Yea, I think he wanted Berglund as 2c. Which was stupid but he didn't feed Casey to the wolves out of thinking he was 2c.

These are all fair, and I think we can all agree, whether it be Sobotka, Larsson, Rodrigues, MIttelstadt, or Berglund, Botterill's plan for 2C last season was terrible. 

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A 2019-2020 Mittelstadt stat line of 18g 27a in the 40's point range is very reasonable, but the key is whom are you surrounding him with.

Sometimes teams can ruin prospects by not giving them the tools around them to succeed.

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