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LGR4GM

Casey Mittelstadt, deep breath, he's fine

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18 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

https://twitter.com/CMDeDominicis/status/1114583140331397121?s=19

"Sheary, Thompson, Okposo top three players he was on the ice with this season. 

No need to give him more than 13% of the time w/ Skinner they only had a 2.69 xGF60. 

Or Reinhart more than 17% with their 2.62 xGF60 together."

I really wanted to see Casey on Jack's wing but our derth of centers really exasperated the issue. Or even centering Reinhart & Skinner.  After the Midway point where Skinner fell off a cliff, what would it have hurt?

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22 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Agree. I am hopeful he makes a leap forward next year. My fear (for Dahlin as well) is we are rushing them along, expecting too much, not correcting bad habits, not teaching enough fundamentals and defensive responsibilities. Wouldn't be the first player we've ruined that way. So fingers crossed. 

 

For all his faults, I don’t get the sense Housley has neglected the teaching with those guys.

They seem to be used enough to still feel relevant, without being tossed to the wolves.

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1 hour ago, dudacek said:

 

Yep, Housley really ***** things up by not playing Reinhart and Eichel the entire game and rotating Skinner, Mittelstadt, Dahlin, Pilut, McCabe, Rodrigues and Olofsson through the other three spots.

 

Yea... this is a bad take. 

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

 

For all his faults, I don’t get the sense Housley has neglected the teaching with those guys.

They seem to be used enough to still feel relevant, without being tossed to the wolves.

Cool. His player usage is bad. 

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1 hour ago, dudacek said:

 

Yep, Housley really ***** things up by not playing Reinhart and Eichel the entire game and rotating Skinner, Mittelstadt, Dahlin, Pilut, McCabe, Rodrigues and Olofsson through the other three spots.

 

I think maybe the take away should be that Housley probably should have broken up 53-9-23 more often to facilitate some secondary scoring.

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https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/frozenpool_nhle.php

This website uses a tool called NHLe, which attempts to predict NHL point totals based on those from other leagues. The site predicted Casey to score 32 points -- he currently sits at 25. While 25 < 32, I don't think there's anything to worry about concerning Casey's NHL development. NHLe doesn't account for many things, including the toll an 82 game season has on a 20 year old kid, and the fact that that kid might play for one of the worst teams in the league. An interesting tool nonetheless.

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2 minutes ago, NAF said:

https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/frozenpool_nhle.php

This website uses a tool called NHLe, which attempts to predict NHL point totals based on those from other leagues. The site predicted Casey to score 32 points -- he currently sits at 25. While 25 < 32, I don't think there's anything to worry about concerning Casey's NHL development. NHLe doesn't account for many things, including the toll an 82 game season has on a 20 year old kid, and the fact that that kid might play for one of the worst teams in the league. An interesting tool nonetheless.

Good first post.  Gave you a welcoming thumbs up thingie.  I have to ask, though, what in blazes took you so long to sum up the courage to make that first post?  We are not that scary are we?

Anyway, don't be shy.  We don't bite that hard, except for maybe Inky ... 😉😍

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3 minutes ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

I have to ask, though, what in blazes took you so long to sum up the courage to make that first post? 

Made the account and then kinda forgot about it. Thanks for the thumbs up.

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1 minute ago, NAF said:

Made the account and then kinda forgot about it. Thanks for the thumbs up.

I can understand you wanting to forget about the Sabres for these last 7 years, but us?

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1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Yea... this is a bad take.

It seems to be your take.

I've seen you refer to Risto, Sobotka, Scandella, Okposo and Thompson as anchors you want kept away from your favourites.

I've never seen you pining for giving your guys more time with Sheary, Nelson, Larsson, Wilson, Girgensons or Bogosian.

How else are you going to get your poorly utilized guys (Dahlin, Rodrigues, Pilut, Mittelstadt) with your preferred lineup?

 

Edited by dudacek

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17 hours ago, dudacek said:

It seems to be your take.

I've seen you refer to Risto, Sobotka, Scandella, Okposo and Thompson as anchors you want kept away from your favourites.

I've never seen you pining for giving your guys more time with Sheary, Nelson, Larsson, Wilson, Girgensons or Bogosian.

How else are you going to get your poorly utilized guys (Dahlin, Rodrigues, Pilut, Mittelstadt) with your preferred lineup?

 

It's not. I've explained my take multiple times. Reinhart should have been stapled to Mitts wing. 

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Thompson, AHL

Sobotka healthy scratch. 

Scandella healthy scratch. 

Okposo with Erod, only way to make the roster work and Okposo could dig in the corners with Erod providing playmaking. 

Risto with McCabe not getting 25+ minutes a night. 

It's almost like the roster had some construction problems made worse by housleys inability to consistently put players in decent spots. 

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1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Thompson, AHL

Sobotka healthy scratch. 

Scandella healthy scratch. 

Okposo with Erod, only way to make the roster work and Okposo could dig in the corners with Erod providing playmaking. 

Risto with McCabe not getting 25+ minutes a night. 

It's almost like the roster had some construction problems made worse by housleys inability to consistently put players in decent spots. 

So...

Skinner Eichel Pominville

Sheary Mittelstadt Reinhart

??? Rodrigues Okposo

Girgensons Larsson ???

Dahlin Bogosian

McCabe Ristolainen

Pilut Nelson

With ??? being Wilson when he got healthy, and/or Rochester call-ups like Smith, Elie and Olofsson?

 

Looks like one of the better lineups I’ve seen with the pieces we had. But there still aren’t enough good pieces.

We did see all of those combinations at some point. Do you think stapling Samson to Casey and plugging  ??? and Pilut for Sobotka, Thompson and Scandella for more time than we did would have saved the season?

Edited by dudacek

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Nothing would have saved it but acquiring another center and a better defensive D.  Sadly this will be done this summer instead of when it needed to be done which was last summer.  

Also, Still to much dead wood on the roster.

I’m not saying PH couldn’t have done a better job, but the roster he was given to coach was less then adequate.

Even on the “ideal” roster, Bogo is on your 1st pair.  Wilson on your 3rd line.  Ellie might have a roster position. Mitts is still your 2nd line center.  25ish pt scorers are anchoring (sinking?) your 3rd line, and the whole D group is still a defensive liability.  Hard to win with this group.

Edited by GASabresIUFAN

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20 hours ago, dudacek said:

So...

Skinner Eichel Pominville

Sheary Mittelstadt Reinhart

??? Rodrigues Okposo

Girgensons Larsson ???

Dahlin Bogosian

McCabe Ristolainen

Pilut Nelson

With ??? being Wilson when he got healthy, and/or Rochester call-ups like Smith, Elie and Olofsson?

 

Looks like one of the better lineups I’ve seen with the pieces we had. But there still aren’t enough good pieces.

We did see all of those combinations at some point. Do you think stapling Samson to Casey and plugging  ??? and Pilut for Sobotka, Thompson and Scandella for more time than we did would have saved the season?

I completely agree there were not enough good pieces but the previous coach insisted on using the bad pieces he had in highly visible roles. There is a reason you don't put Larsson on the 2nd line and there is a reason Sobotka is a 4th line guy with occasional 3rd line fill.  CJ Smith was more useful than Sobotka IMPO. It was things like this that annoyed me about Phil. 

No I do not think it would have saved the season. The team was a complete trainwreck in their own zone. Unless Phil figured out how to fix that, there was not much to save. Now we can also blame goaltending but the number of HD scoring chances they faced wasn't great. Would it have potentially gotten us into the playoffs if we had been smarter with line management? Maybe but I feel like winning a playoff round would have saved a season not simply sneaking in so that's why I say no. 

We had a bad defensive system, coupled with bad goaltending, and bad player usage. It snowballed. CJ Smith is a good fit for that 3rd line, he has played with Erod already. That 4th line spot can be anyone, it almost doesn't matter. 

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On 4/6/2019 at 8:30 AM, LGR4GM said:

Casey was projected at 33/34 points over an 82 game season. He's played exactly 82 games right now counting last year and has 30 points. Next year he needs to be in high 40s in points or if possible the 50s. Time will tell but right now he's where I expected. 

Sam Reinhart jumped from 42 points his first full season to 47 points in his second. I'd be pretty surprised if Mittelstadt jumped from 25 into the high 40s, let alone 50s. 

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55 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Sam Reinhart jumped from 42 points his first full season to 47 points in his second. I'd be pretty surprised if Mittelstadt jumped from 25 into the high 40s, let alone 50s. 

Why? If he Samson was playing as a 1st line player on a terrible team which means he was facing the other team’s best defensive players most nights.

Casey, once he gets slotted right, should have a similar progression as Derek Roy went he was slotted as the 3rd line center.  

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17 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Why? If he Samson was playing as a 1st line player on a terrible team which means he was facing the other team’s best defensive players most nights.

Casey, once he gets slotted right, should have a similar progression as Derek Roy went he was slotted as the 3rd line center.  

If you want to get your hopes up for 45-55 points for our 3rd line C next year, be my guest.

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6 hours ago, Thorny said:

If you want to get your hopes up for 45-55 points for our 3rd line C next year, be my guest.

45 sounds correct to me if he is given an actual rw. No offense to Okposo but he can't keep up with Casey. Sheary was also disappointing as I felt he missed a lot and barely drove production. 

As to your Reinhart only went up 5 points theory, you think Dahlin will only get 49 points next year? 

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1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

45 sounds correct to me if he is given an actual rw. No offense to Okposo but he can't keep up with Casey. Sheary was also disappointing as I felt he missed a lot and barely drove production. 

As to your Reinhart only went up 5 points theory, you think Dahlin will only get 49 points next year? 

Dahlin will get 60 next year minimum

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I don't "expect" Casey to get 50 points next year, but I do think that's more likely than 25 points again.

That kind of jump is not that unusual for a player of his calibre. Just in the past few years, Rantanen went 38 to 84, Connor 5 to 57, Konecny 28 to 47, Dubois 48 to 61, Draisaitl 9 to 51, Nylander 13 to 51. Connor and Nylander played fewer games, but that's because they were in the minors for much of the season.

If he's as good as I think he is, he should take a jump. Needs to train like a man this summer.

 

PS: Did we know that Tage is the 16-highest-scoring player from his draft class?

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5 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I don't "expect" Casey to get 50 points next year, but I do think that's more likely than 25 points again.

That kind of jump is not that unusual for a player of his calibre. Just in the past few years, Rantanen went 38 to 84, Connor 5 to 57, Konecny 28 to 47, Dubois 48 to 61, Draisaitl 9 to 51, Nylander 13 to 51. Connor and Nylander played fewer games, but that's because they were in the minors for much of the season.

If he's as good as I think he is, he should take a jump. Needs to train like a man this summer.

 

PS: Did we know that Tage is the 16-highest-scoring player from his draft class?

Absolutely, if he doesn't then he won't progress. It is on him. 

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 By the way Roy went from 19 to 46 to 63 to 81 in his first 4 Sabres seasons.  Why is it to much to think the more talented player on Casey can make as similar profession?

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Casey has 30 points in 83 games. I think with another summer and a better winger, 45 points in 82 games is reasonable for year 2. 

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13 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Casey has 30 points in 83 games. I think with another summer and a better winger, 45 points in 82 games is reasonable for year 2. 

Agree

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39 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Casey has 30 points in 83 games. I think with another summer and a better winger, 45 points in 82 games is reasonable for year 2. 

Agreed.  I think Botts realizes that one way or another he has to bring in a 2C.  Mitts will drop to 3C and get significant PP time.  I think 45 is a reasonable estimate if he stays healthy.  Huge offseason for him this year but from everything I've read before we drafted him he is a very hard worker and takes his training seriously.  I have no doubts he will come back much stronger in October.

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