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Seattle Expansion - Early Sabres List

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I know this is very early. We were discussing the notion that Hutton’s 3rd year was done to help us with the Seattle expansion so that we can expose him and keep the younger Ullmark.  I think this is a great point.  

The discussion also got me wondering about how we are set up for 2020 expansion and the answer is really well. Right now we have only 6 players under contract beyond the 2019-20 season. Hutton, Risto, Dahlin, Berglund, Eichel and Okposo.  I’m sure Jbot will likely be interested in shedding Okposo and Berglund.  Players under contract with 2 years or less of NA pro experience are exempt.  That means that Pilut, Casey and Dahlin are exempt.  Olofsson is likely as well. 

I’m going to assume for now that Ullmark, McCabe, Reinhart, Skinner, Thompson and maybe Sheary and Erod are all extended.

My list 

Goalie: protected: Ullmark; Exposed: Hutton; Exempt UPL

Defense: Protected: Risto, McCabe and Guhle; Exposed: Unknown (Nelson if re-signed) Exempt: Dahlin, Borgen & Pilut 

Forwards: Protected: Sam, Jack, Skinner, Thompson, Nylander, Sheary, maybe Erod. Exposed: Berglund and Okposo; Exempt: Mittelstadt, Olofsson, Asplund

Hutton and Okposo will be the “prizes” available from us.  I think KO, who has a M-NTC after this season, can be made available. 

Thoughts?

Edited by GASabresIUFAN

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Is Casey definitely exempt? Isn’t next year technically his third season?

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A real sweetener will be required to get Seattle to take Bergy or KO.

If both goalies continue to play well, I think JBott will pay to avoid exposing them in the same way that he offered up Carrier to avoid exposing Ullmark.

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Also Ghule is a question mark for me.... Nelson may be protected if he doesnt step up.

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Im not paying a 2nd to protect Hutton for one year at age 33 if Ullmark looks ready to shoulder the load as number one.

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3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Is Casey definitely exempt? Isn’t next year technically his third season?

It’s a fair question.  I’m not sure and the rules aren’t clear.  All they say are 1st and 2nd year professionals.  I don’t think playing 6 games, despite burning a year of the ELC, counts as a service year. 

If we have to protect him, then Erod in my scenario gets exposed.  Oh well.

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12 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Is Casey definitely exempt? Isn’t next year technically his third season?

This is his first season.  He played 6 games last year after leaving college.

3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

despite burning a year of the ELC

That burned a year of ELC?  I thought you needed more than 9 games for that?

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Just now, Doohickie said:

This is his first season.  He played 6 games last year after leaving college.

Those six games counted as the first season of his ELC. I don’t know if it does the same for expansion purposes.

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10 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

This is his first season.  He played 6 games last year after leaving college.

That burned a year of ELC?  I thought you needed more than 9 games for that?

Not if agreed to by the parties.

 

By the way, here is our protected list from just 2 years ago.

Ennis, Foligno, Kane, Girgensons, Larsson, ROR, KO, Baloo, McCabe, Risto and Lehner

5 of the 11 aren’t with the team any longer.  3 more, Larsson, Girgensons and Baloo are possibly on their last season here.

Also of the 18 listed available players only Ullmark and Bogosian are still in the Sabres organization.  

Edited by GASabresIUFAN

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Just when I think I know stuff, I find out I don't.  🐵

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7 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

This is his first season.  He played 6 games last year after leaving college.

That burned a year of ELC?  I thought you needed more than 9 games for that?

It’s an incentive most college players use to get to their second (better-paying) contract sooner.

McCabe did it and I’m pretty sure ERod, Nelson and CJ Smith did as well.

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1 minute ago, Doohickie said:

Just when I think I know stuff, I find out I don't.  🐵

Burning the 1st year of the ELC is a great tool to get college kids to leave school early, especially once their teams are out of or don’t qualify for the NCAA tournament.

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This thread is waaaay too early.

That being said.

Kyle Okposo has a modified No Trade Clause of 15 teams...can he list an expansion team as one of the 15, thus forcing the Sabres to protect him?

This also feels Moulsony, in that, when the Vegas expansion was announced there were a lot of people saying "Vegas can just draft Moulson and take him off our hands". If KO is playing to a point where we're we want the team to take him to help us, that will never happen.

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46 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

Just when I think I know stuff, I find out I don't.  🐵

It really sounds like you know your stuff when I read it.  Not sure how that will make you feel.

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41 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Is Casey definitely exempt? Isn’t next year technically his third season?

The rules for this draft are supposed to be the same as the Vegas draft.   Realizing Reinhart's 9 games was at the beginning of the season, and Mittelstadt's 6 at the end, but would expect that the 6 games won't count as a season the same as Sam's 9 games didn't count for draft eligibility.  So, the assumption that Mittelstadt is exempt seems reasonable.

Would expect though that Okposo's M-NTC will require him to be protected.

Would also expect they make at least 1 movein theinterim that adds another waiver eligible player into the mix.

Kind of see the Sabres being in a spot similar to the Panthers in the last draft were.  But also expect Botterill to handle it much better than the Cats did.  They'll lose a 2nd/3rd liner, a 5, or Hutton but it won't ruin what they're building.  Early guess would be they lose one of Hutton, Rodrigues, Nelson, or Guhle without throwing in any sweeteners.  But that guess is at least 1 year premature.

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33 minutes ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

It really sounds like you know your stuff when I read it.  Not sure how that will make you feel.

Well it makes you feel gullible from my perspective  😄

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My understanding is that exposure is determined by seasons of service, as GA alluded to. Middy's 6 games do not trigger a year of service. The contract burning a year of ELC is strictly about the contract and not a determinate of service. I'm not a players agent or team executive, and I'm too ugly to play either on television. Feel free to correct me if you have a better understanding of the situation than I do.

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3 hours ago, Taro T said:

The rules for this draft are supposed to be the same as the Vegas draft.   Realizing Reinhart's 9 games was at the beginning of the season, and Mittelstadt's 6 at the end, but would expect that the 6 games won't count as a season the same as Sam's 9 games didn't count for draft eligibility.  So, the assumption that Mittelstadt is exempt seems reasonable.

Would expect though that Okposo's M-NTC will require him to be protected.

Would also expect they make at least 1 movein theinterim that adds another waiver eligible player into the mix.

Kind of see the Sabres being in a spot similar to the Panthers in the last draft were.  But also expect Botterill to handle it much better than the Cats did.  They'll lose a 2nd/3rd liner, a 5, or Hutton but it won't ruin what they're building.  Early guess would be they lose one of Hutton, Rodrigues, Nelson, or Guhle without throwing in any sweeteners.  But that guess is at least 1 year premature.

Wait, so are you saying we SHOULDN'T leave a player who scored 30 goals for us exposed so that we can keep our bad bottom pairing defenseman?

*scratches that off expansion to-do list*

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While the target is the 2020-21 season, I've also heard that Seattle may not realistically start play until as late as the 2021-22 season. That would certainly change things, in terms of player protection for the expansion draft.

So I decided to just list those whom I think are the most valuable 7 forwards / 3 defensemen / 1 goalie currently in the organization:

G: Ullmark

D: Dahlin, Risto, McCabe

F: Eichel, Reinhart, Skinner, Mitts, Thompson, Nylander, Olofsson

Edited by FuhrUrsinne

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5 hours ago, North Buffalo said:

Also Ghule is a question mark for me.... Nelson may be protected if he doesnt step up.

I’m absolutely fine with losing Guhle. I have doubts he’ll ever make the Sabres roster. He isn’t even very good right now in the A.

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2 minutes ago, Ogre said:

I’m absolutely fine with losing Guhle. I have doubts he’ll ever make the Sabres roster. He isn’t even very good right now in the A.

He's there because he looks the way he looks, not confident. His skating and skills are too good to let him get away anytime soon. I think he's fighting for a spot next season. 

McCabe was also a tire fire during a portion of his stint with the Amerks. 

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4 minutes ago, inkman said:

He's there because he looks the way he looks, not confident. His skating and skills are too good to let him get away anytime soon. I think he's fighting for a spot next season. 

McCabe was also a tire fire during a portion of his stint with the Amerks. 

Too many of us fans fail to keep in mind that overall positive player development doesn't typically follow a constantly positive trajectory. 

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6 minutes ago, inkman said:

 

McCabe was also a tire fire during a portion of his stint with the Amerks. 

I remember. That mother funker would just coast like a loser to change. McCabe was fighting with the Tennysons and Feduns for a roster spot though. He made the club way before he was ready. Much easier path than Guhle has.

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Help me out here.  Doesn/t all this assume Skinner re-signs?  Isn't his contract up this year?

If not but he's a FA for the expansion draft, is that another way to "hide" him -- have a deal agreed but don't sign it until after the draft?

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Don't worry -- I'll lay the seeds here in Seattle that veteran leadership is incredibly important in the expansion draft, as is getting to the cap floor, on a 1- or 2- year remaining contract that can be moved at a trade deadline. Yup. We'll work through this.

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