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GDT: Sabres at Vegas 10/16/18 10:00 PM MSG, WGR


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38 minutes ago, jad1 said:

Right now, the Sabres are a one line team.  Opponents known that, and they smother the Eichel line.

The first line knows it, and they're trying too hard to make the perfect play.

Short term, this is where the O'Reilly trade hurts.  Until Mittelstadt can improve his game to the level of a 2nd line NHL center, the team is going to struggle.

Mittelstadt is taking some steps to improve, but Skinner has been orphaned while Mittelstadt finds his game.

And Okposo might be trying hard, but he was a give-away machine on the power play. He was a possession killer last night.

Very true. I also think others need to step up.

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15 minutes ago, darksabre said:

I think Okposo could belong on the PP if the other guys on his unit would stick to the game plan. 

You think Reino messed up his positioning on that one shot where they made a deal out of Okposo's reaction?

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1 minute ago, Weave said:

IMO powerplay is where we miss ROR the most.  He was an excellent distributor and was puck hawk in the O zone on the powerplay.

Huge loss there.

No doubt, especially in the short term.  Long term, I don't know if he fits where the Sabres want to go, but between losing him and Kane, the Sabres already anemic offense has lost almost 50 goals from last year.

Right now the Sabres have 4 NHL-legit top-6 forwards.  (Eichel, Reinhart, Sheary, and Skinner). It's difficult to play consistent hockey when you're staffing your two top lines with bottom six talent.

The good news is that there is a plan.  There are young guys on the roster who can fill those slots once they gain some experience.  Optimistically, though, it will probably take at least till Xmas before the young guys gain some traction.

Between now and then, hopefully vets like Okposo, Pominville, Sobotka, maybe Wilson when he comes back who can contribute something to keep the tr team moving.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, jad1 said:

No doubt, especially in the short term.  Long term, I don't know if he fits where the Sabres want to go, but between losing him and Kane, the Sabres already anemic offense has lost almost 50 goals from last year.

Right now the Sabres have 4 NHL-legit top-6 forwards.  (Eichel, Reinhart, Sheary, and Skinner). It's difficult to play consistent hockey when you're staffing your two top lines with bottom six talent.

The good news is that there is a plan.  There are young guys on the roster who can fill those slots once they gain some experience.  Optimistically, though, it will probably take at least till Xmas before the young guys gain some traction.

Between now and then, hopefully vets like Okposo, Pominville, Sobotka, maybe Wilson when he comes back who can contribute something to keep the tr team moving.

 

 

You can't say they lost 50 goals and then not add back in at the very least skinner and sheary goals

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15 minutes ago, ... said:

huh. I guess he would have been to slow to get into position then, if that's the case.  Seems probable.

If I remember the play correctly, Reinhart came across in front of the net and instead of stopping to screen Okposo's shot he continued to the side of the net which let the goalie see the shot perfectly. 

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10 minutes ago, darksabre said:

If I remember the play correctly, Reinhart came across in front of the net and instead of stopping to screen Okposo's shot he continued to the side of the net which let the goalie see the shot perfectly. 

Right, that's it.  However, RR was making the case that KO should have passed it to Samson rather than shoot it, because what they're trying to do is pass it around first to open up the other side of the net.

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5 minutes ago, ... said:

Right, that's it.  However, RR was making the case that KO should have passed it to Samson rather than shoot it, because what they're trying to do is pass it around first to open up the other side of the net.

That seems... convoluted. I feel like taking the shot and letting Reinhart screen/tip would be preferable to more passing. Especially given Reinhart's skill with tips. Passing to Reinhart there seems like a good way to turn the puck over. 

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17 minutes ago, darksabre said:

That seems... convoluted. I feel like taking the shot and letting Reinhart screen/tip would be preferable to more passing. Especially given Reinhart's skill with tips. Passing to Reinhart there seems like a good way to turn the puck over. 

Maybe.  It's a play they've been using on the PP that has worked this season.  I think Sheary got a goal that way.

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1 hour ago, ... said:

You think Reino messed up his positioning on that one shot where they made a deal out of Okposo's reaction?

 

1 hour ago, darksabre said:

Yup. 

 

51 minutes ago, darksabre said:

If I remember the play correctly, Reinhart came across in front of the net and instead of stopping to screen Okposo's shot he continued to the side of the net which let the goalie see the shot perfectly. 

I disagree but would have to look again.  I believe Reinhart had been in front, but Okposo hesitated on the shot so Reinhart seemed to drop down for the pass.  Okposo then took the shot but at that point it was a clear lane.

Okposo never looked down to Reinhart, he was trying to look Fleury off, so he had no idea (unless peripheral vision caught it) that Reinhart had moved.  There's no doubt that it shows they aren't on the same page regardless of where you put the blame.

Overall they appear to be a better skating and puck moving team.  I have the confidence it gets sorted out.

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As we all know, in principle I don't put OK on PP1. But he's not screwing it up right now, so I'm not going to complain about it. Only thing I'll say is that the 5 second shot windup he's incapable of shooting without only works if he's on the right wall going short side with a Reinhart screen. They've gotta stop getting him stuck in the one-timer spot. 

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Just now, Randall Flagg said:

As we all know, in principle I don't put OK on PP1. But he's not screwing it up right now, so I'm not going to complain about it. Only thing I'll say is that the 5 second shot windup he's incapable of shooting without only works if he's on the right wall going short side with a Reinhart screen. They've gotta stop getting him stuck in the one-timer spot. 

Olofsson would look good in that spot eventually.    His release is lighting quick.

Is Okposo the next Moulson?  Only 5 more years at $6m/yr....  God I hope not, but man.. it just looks like he's plodding around out there most of the time.

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Just now, pi2000 said:

Is Okposo the next Moulson?  Only 5 more years at $6m/yr....  God I hope not, but man.. it just looks like he's plodding around out there most of the time.

I said this before last season started. I think the dude is donezo. Yeah, he tries hard, but to what end? Nothing comes of it. 

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1 hour ago, ... said:

I'd have to go back and find your assessments on this matter - which I won't, so I hope you can supply a brief brief - but from the two periods I watched last night their ES weakness was very apparent.

 

I'd first point out that I don't think our effort is generally more of a problem than most other NHL teams' efforts. They aren't Nolan's Sabres in the 90s, but I've seen 23 other teams get Vegas flu just as bad. I've seen Vegas completely sh!t themselves on an entire road stretch, like they did for the past two weeks, and then look good coming back home. Darling Vegas, with Darling Gallant. Stuff happens. Over 82 games, what happens in the standings and stats is an incredibly good proxy of the collective hockey abilities of your team. There are times when effort and coaches and other things (extremely bad goaltending) hurt more than for other teams, but I haven't seen takes that I consider well-posed that support this in our case yet. Though I do get on him for usage and don't think he's great at it. But I've also been mostly fine with his lines this year, so I haven't had as much to complain about. 

And if I could be convinced that this team has a genuine effort issue, it'd take a miracle to further convince me that it's something inherent to our bad-effort players, and not a result of years of bad habits and meaningless/hopeless demeanor formed entirely by bad hockey. 

Further, I have a fundamental misunderstanding of why the negativity of thinking your roster is bad when offseason moves are being made is worse than the negativity that comes when the roster doesn't perform, negativity in a way that has much more damning implications on the future of the team than needing to not-trade good players and add more. Here's a post that hints at what I was referring to in the post you quoted: 


Here's another: 

I'm looking for one more, and will attach when I find it. It basically is a warning that we have like two culture scapegoats left, and so the fact that our team is still constructed in a way that will struggle at ES throughout the season is, for some reason, going to be shifted to those players (Jack and Sam, maybe Risto), whether the tangible reasons for on-ice problems have anything to do with them and the fact that if they get shut down and focused on, the team is done, or not. And I urged the board not to engage with this, because first of all, "bad cultures" magically become good when enough good players make the team a good, smart, fast team, culture has nothing to do with our recurring on-ice issues (quick-twitch decision making and hands that go along with it are the main thing that do) and second of all, it iis a far more damning and negative problem that a young captain on year 1 of his 8 year contract has some mystical, ill-defined character property that will forever prevent this team from playing a winning brand of hockey, than to just realize that our forward lineup was always going to get the results that it will end up getting, whether they look sluggish/lazy some nights (like all teams do) or not. 

Everything about effort, coaching, etc. aside, we have 3 forwards that I would say have the potential to be consistently dangerous and drive play at even strength, tomorrow night, and another 2 that I think can be consistently good complementary ES players at this stage. When you hit the road in this situation, I just cannot get surprised when a focus on containing those first three guys (and maybe some irresponsible partying) leads to results like last night, just like I can't be surprised when some of the youth shines through and we have a nice game, because there IS upside to this roster as far as in-season development goes that we haven't seen in a while. 

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4 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

first of all, "bad cultures" magically become good when enough good players make the team a good, smart, fast team, culture has nothing to do with our recurring on-ice issues (quick-twitch decision making and hands that go along with it are the main thing that do) and second of all, it iis a far more damning and negative problem that a young captain on year 1 of his 8 year contract has some mystical, ill-defined character property that will forever prevent this team from playing a winning brand of hockey, than to just realize that our forward lineup was always going to get the results that it will end up getting, whether they look sluggish/lazy some nights (like all teams do) or not. 

Everything about effort, coaching, etc. aside, we have 3 forwards that I would say have the potential to be consistently dangerous and drive play at even strength, tomorrow night, and another 2 that I think can be consistently good complementary ES players at this stage. When you hit the road in this situation, I just cannot get surprised when a focus on containing those first three guys (and maybe some irresponsible partying) leads to results like last night, just like I can't be surprised when some of the youth shines through and we have a nice game, because there IS upside to this roster as far as in-season development goes that we haven't seen in a while. 

What are you. Some sort of reasonable person?

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1 hour ago, Randall Flagg said:

I'd first point out that...

....to results like last night, just like I can't be surprised when some of the youth shines through and we have a nice game, because there IS upside to this roster as far as in-season development goes that we haven't seen in a while. 

Quality post.  The more I read your posts, the more I'm coming around to your way of thinking on a lot of this.

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I took a look at the first 3 Vegas goals to see where things went wrong for Buffalo...

First Goal:  Risto (circled in red) takes himself badly out of position on Vegas' PP zone entry, forcing McCabe to abandon his position and defend Karlsson who finds a wide open Marchessault.

Guilty party: Risto's lack of positional awareness and game situation... some blame on Berglund for not recognizing Marchessault was sneaking in behind him, but normally that's not his responsibility (if McCabe could've held his position instead of making up for Risto's gaffe). 

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Second goal: After a ghastly turnover by Reinhart at the Vegas blueline (BUF on the PP), he makes an impressive effort on the backcheck to negate the 2-on-1.   However, Risto doesn't recognize this and stays in the center of the ice giving Eakin way too much time and space, failing to get stick on puck and disrupt the shot attempt.

Guilty party:  Risto's lack of positional awareness and game situation (also Reinhart for the turnover).

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Third Vegas goal:  Face-off to the left of Hutton.  Risto lines up on the half-wall for the face-off as he's playing the left-side while Dahlin is lined up the right side.    There's a scramble for possession at the dot after the puck is dropped.    For some reason, Risto mans up with Karlsson and follows him to the top of the crease, completely abandoning the left side of the zone.   There is no need for Risto to follow Karlsson as Dahlin is in good position to defend the net front while Berglund is defending Marchessault.    The wingers are also in proper positioning defending the points.     This leaves Riley Smith all alone with the puck deep in the left side of the zone (where Risto should've been), with an egregious amount of time and space to find Karlsson's stick in front of Hutton for the easy deflection while Risto makes an attempt to scramble back to the left side.

Guilty Party:  Risto's lack of positional awareness and game situation (he gets caught on the wrong side of the ice defending a player that Dahlin already has position on).    There's a chance they were supposed to switch after the draw, but seems unlikely given Dahlin's position in the picture below.

mfQ9Ze3.jpg

 

Edited by pi2000
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Great breakdown.

There are hockey fan bois who like to get all hot and lathered over Risto's off-season workouts -- clips from social media where the Finnish freak, like, fells tall trees by flinging big truck tires at them -- but the issue with Risto has never been his strength, speed, and such.

He is super dumb on the ice. Like, an idiot.

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45 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

I took a look at the first 3 Vegas goals to see where things went wrong for Buffalo...

First Goal:  Risto (circled in red) takes himself badly out of position on Vegas' PP zone entry, forcing McCabe to abandon his position and defend Karlsson who finds a wide open Marchessault.

Guilty party: Risto's lack of positional awareness and game situation... some blame on Berglund for not recognizing Marchessault was sneaking in behind him, but normally that's not his responsibility (if McCabe could've held his position instead of making up for Risto's gaffe). 

_dULpM8Yy4zJ9rpBZKA4vGofhZWTyVT2zqi-44IY


Second goal: After a ghastly turnover by Reinhart at the Vegas blueline (BUF on the PP), he makes an impressive effort on the backcheck to negate the 2-on-1.   However, Risto doesn't recognize this and gives Eakin way too much time and space, failing to get stick on puck and disrupt the shot attempt.

Guilty party:  Risto's lack of positional awareness and game situation (also Reinhart for the turnover).

HL3SjpdB8Py8bBb0KjqYMxtxAoam8M8hl0MYL2Ds

Yur2eW_gnD151PRS2nc7254YcP2bRKg3sK_jQnUe

 

Third Vegas goal:  Face-off to the left of Hutton.  Risto lines up on the half-wall for the face-off as he's playing the left-side while Dahlin is lined up the right side.    There's a scramble for possession at the dot after the puck is dropped.    For some reason, Risto mans up with Karlsson and follows him to the top of the crease, completely abandoning the left side of the zone.   There is no need for Risto to follow Karlsson as Dahlin is in good position to defend the net front while Berglund is defending Marchessault.    The wingers are also in proper positioning defending the points.     This leaves Riley Smith all alone with the puck deep in the left side of the zone (where Risto should've been), with an egregious amount of time and space to find Karlsson's stick in front of Hutton for the easy deflection while Risto makes an attempt to scramble back to the left side.

Guilty Party:  Risto's lack of positional awareness and game situation (he gets caught on the wrong side of the ice defending a player that Dahlin already has position on).    There's a chance they were supposed to switch after the draw, but seems unlikely given Dahlin's position in the picture below.

Q6u97yjVWgMR2U2gPXEDdcAaYpKyV_qYEjaJ71uj

 

This looks great, any chance you know why the images won't show for me so I can get the icing on the cake?

And just from memory, I completely agree with your first goal interpretation - on the PK Risto can't attempt that play. 

Edited by Randall Flagg
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1 hour ago, ... said:

Quality post.  The more I read your posts, the more I'm coming around to your way of thinking on a lot of this.

Great minds think alike! 

Thanks though. 

I'm willing to buy into some culture stuff at some point. I bought in when we couldn't get over the hump in the playoffs, even though you could probably make a similar talent argument. 

But I simply won't have the conversation when in an ideal world, kids get insulated like Matthews did in Toronto with solid vets and great structure, but in reality ours were expected to pull this thing out themselves surrounded by godawful talent at every position and a front office that wouldn't even sit down to ask them how life was going, apparently. We need to cross a threshold and get this team to a talent level where it can actually be expected to sustainably score more than its opponents, before I have any interest in talking about their inherent character flaws. Because you CAN build this team even if Jack&Sam don't have the goods. Do it and watch the problems melt away. And THEN, if they don't, let's talk about Jack&Sam. This is both how I would logically approach the issue AND the most prudent thing anyway, even if you have We've/dark/Smell's suspicions, just because deciding to blow up the locker room 6 games after you decided to blow up the locker room...well..what pieces would we have left? I don't think anybody believes the issue is so dire that average managerial competence can't field an average team that gets some playoff games with these two players to see how it goes. There are plenty of bad, weak, shallow teams that get there based on puck luck alone. 

Edited by Randall Flagg
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8 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

This looks great, any chance you know why the images won't show for me so I can get the icing on the cake?

And just from memory, I completely agree with your first goal interpretation - on the PK Risto can't attempt that play. 

I fixed the image links, take another look.

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