2017-18 lineup prediction (the Original Lineup Thread)

[Drunkard]

I'd like to thank John Vogel for his #hammermath article on the Sabres cap situation so far. http://buffalonews.com/2017/06/27/botterill-will-need-creativity-improve-sabres-roster-week/

 

Using 27 players and assuming full bonus payouts on all ELC's he claims the Sabres are at 70 mill. He's is assuming full bonuses because Jack came within a pt of getting $2 mill last season. He also only uses the RFA qualifying offers to estimate their new contracts.

 

Here is a more serious discussion.

Right now the Sabres lineup looks like this

 

Forwards: (Projected Cost: 10 players - 32.332 + RFAs F, L, G = approx 5.25. Total 37.582

Kane Jack Sam

Baptiste ROR KO

Foligno* Larsson* Bailey

Moulson BigZ* Ennis

Delo

 

Defense: (Projected Cost: 7 players - 18.268 + RFA Baloo for 2 = 20.268

McCabe Risto

Baloo* Bogo

Gorges Antipin

Falk Fedun

 

Goalies: (Projected Cost: 1 player 750K + RFA Lehner for 4 = 4.75

Lehner*

Ullmark

 

* = RFA

Team cost - 62.6 without bonuses.

 

I estimate that we can reasonably add about $8 mill to our cap hit through trades or UFA's to improve the club this season. I'm looking for at least one more D, maybe two and a LW.

 

 

Edit: potential AHL/ECHL players

Forwards

Nylander Cornel Fasching

Smith ERod Danforth

Karabacek Malone

 

Defense

Guhle Nelson

Stephens Martin

 

Goalie

Johansson

Kasdorf

 

That 4th line is so f'n painful to look at. Almost $11 million in cap on garbage despite the fact that Girgensons only earns $1.15 million.

Edited June 28, 2017 by Drunkard

[GASabresIUFAN]

What you don't like our No. 1 from the tank being our 4th line now?  

 

Don't forget that this is just where we stand today before the FA window opens.

[Drunkard]

What you don't like our No. 1 from the tank being our 4th line now?  

 

Don't forget that this is just where we stand today before the FA window opens.

 

No, I'm actually happy that our talent has increased to the point where guys who were forced to lug the mail for us are now moving down to the bottom of the depth chart, I just hate that they take up so much of the cap. It impedes our ability to bring in further upgrades. We're hamstrung by these guys to a certain extent and passively just waiting for their cap hits to go away is just wasting time when we should be taking advantage of the fact that some of our best players are dirt cheap.

 

I know we had to get to the cap floor and it's probably not easy to convince guys to play for a team that was unofficially trying to lose on purpose but we didn't need to give out such long contracts. I bet Moulson would have signed for something like $21 million over 3 seasons rather than $25 million over 5 years. Hell, we could have just given All Star MVP John Scott a bunch of 1 year deals for big money to punch people in the skull repeatedly if getting to the cap floor was such a worry.

 

That's basically water under the bridge at this point, but I'd still prefer GMJB to be proactive in trying to clear these guys off the books. The Leafs managed to clear their bad contracts and the Rangers never seem to get stuck to the ridiculous contracts they give every big name free agent. We need to find some suckers as well and I still feel like he missed a prime opportunity to bribe Vegas into taking one of these guys off our hands (Moulson, Ennis, or Gorges in particular although I'll throw in Bogosian for the bunker crowd).

Edited June 29, 2017 by Drunkard

[Samson's Flow]

I still think there are going to be more moves coming in FA or trades. We have seen the type of player that JBott and Housley are looking for in the draft, and I think we continue to shape the team toward speed and attacking/active defense. Similar to the annual Bills coaching change there will be a lot of roster turnover as the new staff brings in "their guys".

[GASabresIUFAN]

Drunkard, here is some good news on Moulson and his contract.

1. We have the space this year to use him as a PP specialist and at least get something out of him.

2. Next season his salary is down to $2 mill. This might make him an easy candidate to be traded to someone looking to get to the cap floor. If not, the cap saving from a buyout or demotion to the AHL are about the same. Therefore you demote him next season and his cap hit is gone after next season.

[WildCard]

The salary decreases but from every other contract I've ever looked at I'd assume his cap hit is still the same

[LGR4GM]

The salary decreases but from every other contract I've ever looked at I'd assume his cap hit is still the same

yes but what he is saying is that a team with an internal cap would love a Moulson because they only pay 2million for 5million against the cap. Helps them save real money. 

[Drunkard]

Drunkard, here is some good news on Moulson and his contract.

1. We have the space this year to use him as a PP specialist and at least get something out of him.

2. Next season his salary is down to $2 mill. This might make him an easy candidate to be traded to someone looking to get to the cap floor. If not, the cap saving from a buyout or demotion to the AHL are about the same. Therefore you demote him next season and his cap hit is gone after next season.

 

We knew this when we signed him though. It's the same with O'Reilly and Okposo. They front loaded the contract but stayed within the CBA guidelines with the idea that we'd be able to move them more easily later. Later should be now though. There was literally a brand new team that needed to be built from the ground up and we didn't bribe them to take him, Ennis, or Gorges. What other team is going to take these guys? Even Arizona seems to be going into win now mode. We can all hope that a team like Jersey, Colorado, or Carolina will do it but I doubt it.

 

Looking at this: http://www.spotrac.com/nhl/buffalo-sabres/cap/

 

The craptastic 4 (Moulson, Ennis, Bogosian, Gorges)  make up 37.18% of our cap. I'm not sure if that's 37% of what we're currently slated to spend or 37% of the upper limit but either way it's bad. Actual cap hits of $18.64 million combined for these guys. The same site says we currently have the most cap space, but we know we've got some major spending coming up on extensions for Eichel, Reinhart, and (hopefully) Kane.

 

The cheap years of Eichel and Reinhart are already over after this season and they'll be over for Nylander and Guhle before these bums get cleared off the books. I guess we can pin our hopes to making a run by getting big production out of Middelstadt for dirt cheap in a few years, but other than that we should be at the point where we're no longer bad enough to rake in top 10 draft picks year after year. It just feels like we missed a big opportunity.

Edited June 29, 2017 by Drunkard

[LGR4GM]

We knew this when we signed him though. It's the same with O'Reilly and Okposo. They front loaded the contract but stayed within the CBA guidelines with the idea that we'd be able to move them more easily later. Later should be now though. There was literally a brand new team that needed to be built from the ground up and we didn't bribe them to take him, Ennis, or Gorges. What other team is going to take these guys? Even Arizona seems to be going into win now mode. We can all hope that a team like Jersey, Colorado, or Carolina will do it but I doubt it.

 

Looking at this: http://www.spotrac.com/nhl/buffalo-sabres/cap/

 

The craptastic 4 (Moulson, Ennis, Bogosian, Gorges)  make up 37.18% of our cap. I'm not sure if that's 37% of what we're currently slated to spend or 37% of the upper limit but either way it's bad. Actual cap hits of $18.64 million combined for these guys. The same site says we currently have the most cap space, but we know we've got some major spending coming up on extensions for Eichel, Reinhart, and (hopefully) Kane.

 

The cheap years of Eichel and Reinhart are already over after this season and they'll be over for Nylander and Guhle before these bums get cleared off the books. I guess we can pin our hopes to making a run by getting big production out of Middelstadt for dirt cheap in a few years, but other than that we should be at the point where we're no longer bad enough to rake in top 10 draft picks years after year. It just feels like we missed a big opportunity.

The bolded is not true. Nylander and Guhle are on entry level deals. The only Sabre one of the 4 with 3 years left is Bogo. 

 

As to the rest of it, I think we will see one guy moved. 

[Drunkard]

The bolded is not true. Nylander and Guhle are on entry level deals. The only Sabre one of the 4 with 3 years left is Bogo. 

 

As to the rest of it, I think we will see one guy moved. 

 

Guhle's contract may have slid twice but I'm pretty sure Nylander just burned the first year of his ELC in Rochester last year. That will give him 2 years left at dirt cheap prices, but Moulson and Ennis are still under contract.

[LGR4GM]

Guhle's contract may have slid twice but I'm pretty sure Nylander just burned the first year of his ELC in Rochester last year. That will give him 2 years left at dirt cheap prices, but Moulson and Ennis are still under contract.

Nylanders contract slid from the way I understand the CBA. 

 

Moulson and Ennis have 2 years left. Even if you signed Nylander next summer under the premise that you laid out, his deal would not impact the cap until after Moulson and Ennis are gone off the books. 

 

If you sign a new contract it does not impact the cap until that contract starts. So if Jack signs for 8year 14million or whatever that does not impact our cap until July 1 2018. 

Edited June 29, 2017 by LGR4GM

[Drunkard]

Nylanders contract slid from the way I understand the CBA. 

 

Moulson and Ennis have 2 years left. Even if you signed Nylander next summer under the premise that you laid out, his deal would not impact the cap until after Moulson and Ennis are gone off the books. 

 

If you sign a new contract it does not impact the cap until that contract starts. So if Jack signs for 8year 14million or whatever that does not impact our cap until July 1 2018. 

 

I didn't think a contract could slide in the AHL? I thought that was strictly a juniors thing or a Europe thing, but hopefully you're right and I'm wrong. I realize that new contracts don't count until they actually take effect though.

 

Either way we're going to need to start hitting on some later round picks though because we should be done drafting early and it always seems like the top teams get around the cap by getting top tier production out of dirt cheap contracts and our window for doing that is closing rapidly (it's already over for Ristolainen and will be over for Eichel and Reinhart after this season so our best shots to take advantage of it will be for Nylander, Guhle, and Middelstadt). If we're not seriously contending and drafting in the 20's or 30's by the time those guys get paid we're looking at the same damn issues as now, except it will be for guys like Okposo and O'Reilly who will be in decline mode as they hit their 30's.

[LGR4GM]

I didn't think a contract could slide in the AHL? I thought that was strictly a juniors thing or a Europe thing, but hopefully you're right and I'm wrong. I realize that new contracts don't count until they actually take effect though.

 

Either way we're going to need to start hitting on some later round picks though because we should be done drafting early and it always seems like the top teams get around the cap by getting top tier production out of dirt cheap contracts and our window for doing that is closing rapidly (it's already over for Ristolainen and will be over for Eichel and Reinhart after this season so our best shots to take advantage of it will be for Nylander, Guhle, and Middelstadt). If we're not seriously contending and drafting in the 20's or 30's by the time those guys get paid we're looking at the same damn issues as now, except it will be for guys like Okposo and O'Reilly who will be in decline mode as they hit their 30's.

Oh I totally agree with your premise here. We need to draft well for cheap talent and also get this going to take advantage of the cheap talent we have. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Oh I totally agree with your premise here. We need to draft well for cheap talent and also get this going to take advantage of the cheap talent we have.

 

Some D would be nice

 

According to capfriendly, Nylander still has 3 more years on his ELC. If you look at Big Z's History, his contract slid as well eventhough he was in the AHL. So assuming Nylander makes the team in 2018-19, we'll get 2 NHL years out of his ELC. Guhle has 3 years left as well.

 

It seems like y'all are assuming that everyone gets a big deal once their ELc's are up. I disagree. Larsson and Girgensons won't be getting big raises. In one of TM's best moves, he locked up McCabe for 3 years at 1.6. Bailey and Batiste are on the last tear of their ELCs. No matter how good a year they have this coming year, they aren't getting 3-4mill per year on their next contract. Hopefully, once Jbot rebuilds the pipeline, we'll have a yearly flow of young value talent to help us afford the big $ players.

 

One other note. I'm against signing another big $ contract for Shattenkirk. 6 years for a 28 year old D is an eternity. You are almost guaranted that the last 2-3 years of the deal will be a burden on the team's cap as his skills and production begin to decline. Look around the league and tell me how many 33-34 yr old D are still playing at their prime levels and are worth 6 mill a year.

[LGR4GM]

Some D would be nice

 

According to capfriendly, Nylander still has 3 more years on his ELC. If you look at Big Z's History, his contract slid as well eventhough he was in the AHL. So assuming Nylander makes the team in 2018-19, we'll get 2 NHL years out of his ELC. Guhle has 3 years left as well.

 

It seems like y'all are assuming that everyone gets a big deal once their ELc's are up. I disagree. Larsson and Girgensons won't be getting big raises. In one of TM's best moves, he locked up McCabe for 3 years at 1.6. Bailey and Batiste are on the last tear of their ELCs. No matter how good a year they have this coming year, they aren't getting 3-4mill per year on their next contract. Hopefully, once Jbot rebuilds the pipeline, we'll have a yearly flow of young value talent to help us afford the big $ players.

 

One other note. I'm against signing another big $ contract for Shattenkirk. 6 years for a 28 year old D is an eternity. You are almost guaranted that the last 2-3 years of the deal will be a burden on the team's cap as his skills and production begin to decline. Look around the league and tell me how many 33-34 yr old D are still playing at their prime levels and are worth 6 mill a year.

That's what she said... or he...

 

 

But to the Shattenkirk part, totally agree. 

Edited June 29, 2017 by LGR4GM

[sweetlou]

Ennis- ROR- Okposo

Landeskog- Eichel- Baptiste

Foligno- Bonino- Pomminstein

Girgensons , Larsson, Bailey

 

Beaulieu, Risto

McCabe, Dumba

Antipin, Bogo

 

 

Trade Kane to Colorado for Landeskog

Trade Fasching and Reinhart to Minn for Dumba and Pomminstein

[LGR4GM]

If I trade Sam Reinhart to Minnesota I expect Dumba and Pommers back without a sweetener and I'm still annoyed.

[Randall Flagg]

If I trade Sam Reinhart to Minnesota I expect Dumba and Pommers back without a sweetener and I'm still annoyed.

That would be horrific, because Pominville would be doing them a favor. 

 

Dumba and Neiderreiter maybe. I'd push Samson and a pick and a prospect for Brodin and Nino. 

[LGR4GM]

I'd push Reinhart for Dumba, 2018 1st, and their next best prospect plus Minnesota takes bogo

[Randall Flagg]

I'd push Reinhart for Dumba, 2018 1st, and their next best prospect plus Minnesota takes bogo

Interesting. 

 

Can't see Minny adding salary. 

 

Also, the more I think about it, the less I'd do what I said I'd do, as is usually the case with Reinhart. IF he is going to get moved, get that one piece with his upside, don't settle for lesser pieces. You do that trading a guy like Kane, not a guy like Sam.

[LGR4GM]

I think trading Sam right now would be a huge mistake. Everything I see points to a breakout season.

[Thorny]

Nylanders contract slid from the way I understand the CBA. 

 

Moulson and Ennis have 2 years left. Even if you signed Nylander next summer under the premise that you laid out, his deal would not impact the cap until after Moulson and Ennis are gone off the books. 

 

If you sign a new contract it does not impact the cap until that contract starts. So if Jack signs for 8year 14million or whatever that does not impact our cap until July 1 2018.

 

Ya, as GA said, it slid. I think the way it works is, it slides if the player is under 20.

 

Edit - When they are in the AHL.

[Drunkard]

One other note. I'm against signing another big $ contract for Shattenkirk. 6 years for a 28 year old D is an eternity. You are almost guaranted that the last 2-3 years of the deal will be a burden on the team's cap as his skills and production begin to decline. Look around the league and tell me how many 33-34 yr old D are still playing at their prime levels and are worth 6 mill a year.

 

I'm not pining for Shattenkirk by any stretch but your statement is a bit of a head scratcher. Did you feel the same way about Okposo because he was an extremely similar situation? We gave the guy a 7 year contract at 28 years of age and forwards tend to peak earlier and decline sooner than defenseman do. Shattenkirk will probably be playing better at the end of his contract than Okposo will be playing by the end of his.

 

Of course I doubt Shattenkirk will be had for 7 years 42 million but the point still stands.

Edited June 30, 2017 by Drunkard

[Doohickie]

I think trading Sam right now would be a huge mistake. Everything I see points to a breakout season.

 

"Everything"?  Like, what?

[LGR4GM]

"Everything"?  Like, what?

He had more points last year. Most players breakout in year 3 if they are going to. He has a new coach who isn't a complete waste like Bylsma. He showed improvement between year 1 and 2 and I would expect to see more improvement. He will have better line/teammates especially on defense.