The Ryan O'Reilly super thread 2015!!!

[WildCard]

So first things first, before I get into this, is it safe to assume that Saad will not get the $8 mil/year we have speculated O'Reilly wants?

[Drunkard]

So first things first, before I get into this, is it safe to assume that Saad will not get the $8 mil/year we have speculated O'Reilly wants?

Of course. Ryan O'Reilly will be paid a kings ransom because his defensive awareness makes him without true equal. Saad can't match up with ROR because nobody can. Even though we are stacked with southpaw LW/C's we need to do everything we can to land him. His tears can cure cancer ... too bad he has never cried. Plus, I heard he once walked down the street with a ###### ... there were no survivors. His grandfather defeated the Nazi's single handedly with only his bare hands but proceeded to allow the Allied Forces and Russkies to share the credit so he and his family wouldn't be thrust into the spotlight. We must acquire him at any cost (both in trade value and contracts). Edited June 2, 2015 by Drunkard

[LGR4GM]

So first things first, before I get into this, is it safe to assume that Saad will not get the $8 mil/year we have speculated O'Reilly wants?

Yes. Unless a team makes a crazy offer sheet. 

Of course not. Ryan O'Reilly will be paid a kings ransom because his defensive awareness makes him without true equal. Saad can't match up with ROR because nobody can. Even though we are stacked with southpaw LW/C's we need to do everything we can to land him. His tears can cure cancer ... too bad he has never cried. Plus, I heard he once walked down the street with a ###### ... there were no survivors. His grandfather defeated the Nazi's single handedly with only his bare hands but proceeded to allow the Allied Forces and Russkies to share the credit so he and his family wouldn't be thrust into the spotlight. We must acquire him at any cost (both in trade value and contracts).

[dudacek]

Of course. Ryan O'Reilly will be paid a kings ransom because his defensive awareness makes him without true equal. Saad can't match up with ROR because nobody can. Even though we are stacked with southpaw LW/C's we need to do everything we can to land him. His tears can cure cancer ... too bad he has never cried. Plus, I heard he once walked down the street with a ###### ... there were no survivors. His grandfather defeated the Nazi's single handedly with only his bare hands but proceeded to allow the Allied Forces and Russkies to share the credit so he and his family wouldn't be thrust into the spotlight. We must acquire him at any cost (both in trade value and contracts).

:worthy:

[TrueBlueGED]

So first things first, before I get into this, is it safe to assume that Saad will not get the $8 mil/year we have speculated O'Reilly wants?

Yes. Although I'm also reasonably confident O'Reilly ends up closer to 7 than to 8.

[WildCard]

Since we've all heard the O'Reilly case, I'll introduce the Saad one instead. It's already going to be a long post so I don't want to bog it down too much reviewing what's already been stated. 

 

First off, Saad is a winner, which is an important aspect. He's been on a Cup winning team, and in the playoffs every year since he's been in the league. His first two trips, including the second one where he won the Cup, weren't glamorous in any sense of the word, but his second two showings have highlighted him as a rising star who likes the limelight. He's been double-shifted these last few games, big games, for Chicago and playing the 3rd most average TOI for the Hawks on a veteran squad (behind Kane and Toews); that means he's playing more often and in bigger scenarios than Hossa, Sharp, Richards, etc. Coach Q has shown that if you screw up, he will bench you the entire period (shout out to Bickel). Double shifting a 22 year old on a team of vets in Game 7 from a two time Stanely Cup winning coach is incredible praise.

 

-2014 Playoffs: 6-10-16 in 19gp, avg. toi (17:31)

-2015 Playoffs: 6-2-8 17gp, avg. toi (20.40)

 

Secondly, his offensive prowess/upside is much higher than O'Reilly's, at 2 years younger no less. Every year he's been in the league and played a full season, his s% has been higher than 10%, and is an average of 11.2%. Conversely, O'Reilly's average is 10.2%, was 9.9% this most recent season, and has never eclipsed Saad's shot total of 203 shots in a season. Granted O'Reilly did have a shot total of 201 shots in his best season stats wise, yielding a s% of 13.9% (which he's never before or sense gotten close to) and a 28 goal season. It's not the strongest argument for Saad, but it demonstrates his consistency. 

 

Saad and O'Reilly each have one 20 goal season, O'Reilly's coming on what is statistically an anomaly for him, Saad's is not. It's also worth noting that at the beginning of last year, Saad was stuck on the 3rd line without Kane/Toews, the lack of talent situation cannot also be said for O'reilly. 

 

For all that is said about O'Reilly's defensive prowess, he is an astounding -13 in his career, with only one season being a positive: his rookie campaign at +4. Now, I know plus/minus isn't the end all be all of stats, but for comparison, Saad is a +44 career, and in his first full rookie season he was a +20 with the same average toi as O'Reilly rookie campaign. For fancy stats, try and guess which player has which numbers. (note: for corsi/60, I had to use the latest season as one player didn't have career totals available) 

 

Corsi-For % EV: 56%

Corsi/60 minutes (all situations): 9.3

Fenwick-For % EV: 55.8%

 

Corsi-For % EV: 49.8%

Corsi/60 minutes (all situations): -6.7

Fenwick-For % EV: 49.9%

 

 

Clearly I'm leading you on, so it shouldn't take too much thought to know the answer is Saad and O'Reilly respectively. See, now I'm confused here. Everything I've heard says O'Reilly is a very solid defensive forward, yet every stat I have proves otherwise. Here's a teammates of O'Reilly's same stats.

 

Corsi-For % EV: 51.3%

Corsi/60 minutes (all situations): -3.4

Fenwick-For % EV: 51.5%

 

That would be Landeskog's stats by the way. O'Reilly isn't even the best statistical player on his team, yet we want to pay him like one of the league's best, not too mention trade for him.

 

Also, O'Reilly ranks 202nd in Corsi-For% EV from 2013-2015,  when he had the most talented rosters he's had yet. Wanna know who floats there with him? Our boy Thomas Vanek at 208 and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins at 204. Two players you would hardly laud for their defensive play. Saad, OTOH, ranks 22nd in that span.

 

Now, you could say "But that's because of Chicago." Well, in that span of 2013-2015, O'Reilly ranked 4th on his own team in forwards, behind MacKinnon, Iginla, and Landeskog, and ahead of Duchene and others. Saad, OTOH, ranked 5th on his, behind Bickell, Hossa, Sharp, and Toews, and ahead of Kane, Shaw, and Kruger. Make of that what you will.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?db=201315&sit=5v5&type=corsi&teamid=0&pos=forwards&minutes=1500&disp=1&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

 

 

Ultimately, I think Saad has a much higher ceiling, is consistent and can maintain his pace as his stats demonstrate, is a proven winner that loves the spot light, and is a benefit to his team in every phase of the game. I think he will come cheaper than O'Reilly seeing as we won't have to trade for him, and although is less likely to be acquired, provides the added benefit of a team strapped with Cap trouble. If we were to spend $8 mil/year on a RFA, I would much rather it be Saad or even Toffoli than O'Reilly

Edited June 2, 2015 by WildCard

[thesportsbuff]

 

Sense we've all heard the O'Reilly case, I'll introduce the Saad one instead. It's already going to be a long post so I don't want to bog it down too much reviewing what's already been stated. 

 

First off, Saad is a winner, which is an important aspect. He's been on a Cup winning team, and in the playoffs every year since he's been in the league. His first two trips, including the second one where he won the Cup, weren't glamorous in any sense of the word, but his second two showings have highlighted him as a rising star who likes the limelight. He's been double-shifted these last few games, big games, for Chicago and playing the 3rd most average TOI for the Hawks on a veteran squad (behind Kane and Toews); that means he's playing more often and in bigger scenarios than Hossa, Sharp, Richards, etc. Coach Q has shown that if you screw up, he will bench you the entire period (shout out to Bickel). Double shifting a 22 year old on a team of vets in Game 7 from a two time Stanely Cup winning coach is incredible praise.

 

-2014 Playoffs: 6-10-16 in 19gp, avg. toi (17:31)

-2015 Playoffs: 6-2-8 17gp, avg. toi (20.40)

 

Secondly, his offensive prowess/upside is much higher than O'Reilly's, at 2 years younger no less. Every year he's been in the league and played a full season, his s% has been higher than 10%, and is an average of 11.2%. Conversely, O'Reilly's average is 10.2%, was 9.9% this most recent season, and has never eclipsed Saad's shot total of 203 shots in a season. Granted O'Reilly did have a shot total of 201 shots in his best season stats wise, yielding a s% of 13.9% (which he's never before or sense gotten close to) and a 28 goal season. It's not the strongest argument for Saad, but it demonstrates his consistency. 

 

Saad and O'Reilly each have one 20 goal season, O'Reilly's coming on what is statistically an anomaly for him, Saad's is not. It's also worth noting that at the beginning of last year, Saad was stuck on the 3rd line without Kane/Toews, the lack of talent situation cannot also be said for O'reilly. 

 

For all that is said about O'Reilly's defensive prowess, he is an astounding -13 in his career, with only one season being a positive: his rookie campaign at +4. Now, I know plus/minus isn't the end all be all of stats, but for comparison, Saad is a +44 career, and in his first full rookie season he was a +20 with the same average toi as O'Reilly rookie campaign. For fancy stats, try and guess which player has which numbers. (note: for corsi/60, I had to use the latest season as one player didn't have career total's available) 

 

Corsi-For % EV: 56%

Corsi/60 minutes (all situations): 9.3

Fenwick-For % EV: 55.8%

 

Corsi-For % EV: 49.8%

Corsi/60 minutes (all situations): -6.7

Fenwick-For % EV: 49.9%

 

 

Clearly I'm leading you on, so it shouldn't take too much thought to know the answer is Saad and O'Reilly respectively. See, now I'm confused here. Everything I've heard says O'Reilly is a very solid defensive forward, yet every stat I have proves otherwise. Here's a teammates of O'Reilly's same stats.

 

Corsi-For % EV: 51.3%

Corsi/60 minutes (all situations): -3.4

Fenwick-For % EV: 51.5%

 

That would be Landeskog's stats by the way. O'Reilly isn't even the best statistical player on his team, yet we want to pay him like one of the league's best, not too mention trade for him.

 

Also, O'Reilly ranks 202nd in Corsi-For% EV from 2013-2015,  when he had the most talented rosters he's had yet. Wanna know who floats there with him? Our boy Thomas Vanek at 208 and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins at 204. Two players you would hardly laud for their defensive play. Saad, OTOH, ranks 22nd in that span.

 

Now, you could say "But that's because of Chicago." Well, in that span of 2013-2015, O'Reilly ranked 4th on his own team in forwards, behind MacKinnon, Iginla, and Landeskog, and ahead of Duchene and others. Saad, OTOH, ranked 5th on his, behind Bickell, Hossa, Sharp, and Toews, and ahead of Kane, Shaw, and Kruger. Make of that what you will.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?db=201315&sit=5v5&type=corsi&teamid=0&pos=forwards&minutes=1500&disp=1&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

 

 

Ultimately, I think Saad has a much higher ceiling, is consistent and can maintain his pace as his stats demonstrate, is a proven winner that loves the spot light, and is a benefit to his team in every phase of the game. I think he will come cheaper than O'Reilly seeing as we won't have to trade for him, and although is less likely to be acquired, provides the added benefit of a team strapped with Cap trouble. If we were to spend $8 mil/year on a RFA, I would much rather it be Saad or even Toffoli than O'Reilly

 

 

In a perfect world I would rather have Saad, but in the real world NHL, I'd rather have O'Reilly. Either one would be a good addition and kind of fit the criteria of the player we are looking for. But to me the choice is simple: Offer sheeting Saad would cost us next years 1st + 3rd at the very least. If you're talking in the $8 million range, that's two firsts, a second, and a third. O'Reilly would cost us less to trade for, and likely would allow us to keep next years first round pick.  

[qwksndmonster]

WC, great post.  I do think that you're overstating the talent around O'Reilly a bit.  The forwards around him are good, sure, but the team in general is light years behind Chicago.

 

And I've actually heard that RNH's defensive play has improved big time lately.  (from trueblue, I think?)

[Randall Flagg]

WC, great post. I do think that you're overstating the talent around O'Reilly a bit. The forwards around him are good, sure, but the team in general is light years behind Chicago.

 

And I've actually heard that RNH's defensive play has improved big time lately. (from trueblue, I think?)

IMO we should be very happy if Samson becomes what Nuge is becoming.

 

I like Saad and O'Reilly but I really am not sure how to compare them, great cases have been made for both though.

[Bob Malooga]

He was one of the hottest players in the NHL down the stretch. The two best players on the Avs during the stretch run were Landeskog and Mackinnon...O'Reilly was the catalyst of that. As of April 9th, he had 15 points in his last 12 games...while they were chasing a wild card position. In March, he scored a goal in 12 of 13 games.

 

In a defensive role, he put up 55 points and is only 24 years old, just entering his prime.

 

The only other player I would take as a "consolation" would be Tyler Toffoli.

 

They both play the big and heavy game the Sabres seem to want to build towards.

 

How anyone can write off O'Reilly and say he's not worth it for the Buffalo Sabres, is mind-blowing.

 

(Saad plays on the best team in the NHL, on a line with 2 of the best players in the world.)

Edited June 3, 2015 by Bob Malooga

[WildCard]

I'd like to know how you know he was the catalyst of a very small portion of his career

[dudacek]

Nice work on Saad, WC. I would have never considered him underrated, but you've made a good case.

 

Somebody needs to do the same for Tyler Toffoli.

He is a good player, but I think his upside is Pominville and he's got a ways to go to get there.

Has he done any more at age 23 than Cody Hodgson had at the same age?

Edited June 3, 2015 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

(Saad plays on the best team in the NHL, on a line with 2 of the best players in the world.)

Guessing this means Kane and Toews.  From my understanding, Kane and Toews play on separate lines.  Can anyone verify that?

[Randall Flagg]

Guessing this means Kane and Toews. From my understanding, Kane and Toews play on separate lines. Can anyone verify that?

I also thought that this was the case

[WildCard]

Guessing this means Kane and Toews. From my understanding, Kane and Toews play on separate lines. Can anyone verify that?

It is the case, except in the playoffs when Coach Q needs offense. Also, like I pointed out above, although Saad is a regular on the Toews line, that didn't happen until about midway through last season, his second season.

[Hoss]

Guessing this means Kane and Toews. From my understanding, Kane and Toews play on separate lines. Can anyone verify that?

Yes, for the most part. They played together quite a bit in the last few games of the series against Anaheim.

 

But either way he has elite linemates in Chicago.

[thewookie1]

Guessing this means Kane and Toews.  From my understanding, Kane and Toews play on separate lines.  Can anyone verify that?

 

 

Based on watching the Hawks intermittently, my Dad is a big Hawks fan, Toews plays on the 1st line and Kane tends to play on the 2nd line. 

 

http://www2.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/lines/19/chicago-blackhawks Sharp played on the top line a lot too  but seemed cold for most of the season so Saad got time on the top line and even occasionally with Kane.

 

Saad is know as the Man-child due to his young age, but adult play and beard he had in the 2013 Cup run. 

 

I'd pick Saad over O'Reilly, but barely and mainly because Girgensons fills a similar role to that of O'Reilly

[WildCard]

Yes, for the most part. They played together quite a bit in the last few games of the series against Anaheim.

 

But either way he has elite linemates in Chicago.

To be fair the same can be said for O'Reilly

[nfreeman]

WC -- good stuff and a compelling case.  I tend to think though that it's much more likely that Colorado parts with ROR than it is that Chicago parts with Saad.  (Among other reasons, there's a fairly solid likelihood that GMTM doesn't believe in offer-sheeting RFAs.)

[LGR4GM]

WC -- good stuff and a compelling case.  I tend to think though that it's much more likely that Colorado parts with ROR than it is that Chicago parts with Saad.  (Among other reasons, there's a fairly solid likelihood that GMTM doesn't believe in offer-sheeting RFAs.)

What if he traded for Saad?  I mean the Hawks are going to be cap screwed this upcoming year, what if Murray was like hey I have this prospect and the 21st (Or whatever you think Saad is worth) wanna make a deal because you have cap issues.  

[WildCard]

Nice work on Saad, WC. I would have never considered him underrated, but you've made a good case.

 

Somebody needs to do the same for Tyler Toffoli.

He is a good player, but I think his upside is Pominville and he's got a ways to go to get there.

Has he done any more at age 23 than Cody Hodgson had at the same age?

Thank you.

 

Sorry, but who is the "he" you are referring to here? Toffoli, right? I was gonna start looking up stuff on him next.

[nfreeman]

What if he traded for Saad?  I mean the Hawks are going to be cap screwed this upcoming year, what if Murray was like hey I have this prospect and the 21st (Or whatever you think Saad is worth) wanna make a deal because you have cap issues.  

 

It's certainly possible -- when you look at Byfuglien and some of the other good young players they've let go for cap reasons, you can't say it's impossible.  It just seems more likely, given how big a role that Saad has assumed, that they'll try to unload Sharp and/or Bickell in order to keep Saad.

[LGR4GM]

It's certainly possible -- when you look at Byfuglien and some of the other good young players they've let go for cap reasons, you can't say it's impossible.  It just seems more likely, given how big a role that Saad has assumed, that they'll try to unload Sharp and/or Bickell in order to keep Saad.

I agree they are more likely to unload someone else but Sharp has a NMC so that could complicate things.

[WildCard]

WC, great post.  I do think that you're overstating the talent around O'Reilly a bit.  The forwards around him are good, sure, but the team in general is light years behind Chicago.

 

And I've actually heard that RNH's defensive play has improved big time lately.  (from trueblue, I think?)

WC -- good stuff and a compelling case.  I tend to think though that it's much more likely that Colorado parts with ROR than it is that Chicago parts with Saad.  (Among other reasons, there's a fairly solid likelihood that GMTM doesn't believe in offer-sheeting RFAs.)

Thanks guys. Took longer than I'd like to admit  :D

[beerme1]

Thanks guys. Took longer than I'd like to admit  :D

 

Add one more here! Great job WildCard :beer: That moves the needle. I don't want to pay ROR the money he gets. But he got it and wont take less now. Saad would have a much longer term role here I would be willing to bet also. I have stated that I would rather not give up assets for ROR and it will be interesting to see how this plays out. 

Listening to Murray's recent comments, I am inclined to think he isn't out to shock with a move like this, this off season. However if a cash strapped team calls him with something I think all bets are off and who knows what happens. That kind of deal may break ground with the extra pick.

 

Oh and by the way, that write up was worth waiting all day for ;) . Excellent stuff!