That Aud Smell Posted April 16, 2015 Report Share Posted April 16, 2015 Wait - found it, I think. http://www.coppernblue.com/2010/7/6/1554759/on-nhl-equivalencies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Dryden Posted April 16, 2015 Author Report Share Posted April 16, 2015 Link? Also I am not making things up. Todd Gurley's insurance policy was worth $10million if I remember correctly. Jack Eichel is worth less than Todd Gurley. http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/11888065/georgia-bulldogs-upped-todd-gurley-insurance-policy-10-million-coverage Here is where I got my original information on the NCAA policy http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/insurance/student-athlete-insurance-programs He can get hurt anywhere, so I am not sure what your point is. He will get insurance either at the NCAA or NHL level to ensure future earnings if he is smart-- not the basic NCAA insurance that you cite but a much richer more expensive policy. Do you think if he goes to the NHL and has a huge injury at age 19 it won't affect future earnings? He can't cash in on his whole career by coming out now. And he can get as much insurance as an insurer will give based on career income projections. Now coming out now he starts his earning earlier, so over the life of his career he will likely make more the sooner he comes out. But the notion of coming out because of injury risk is not that big a deal, and an informed player will know that. Now I think JE will come out, but it is false comfort on that score to think he has to do it because of money. Think Andrew Luck for a recent example of staying in school and big money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Aud Smell Posted April 16, 2015 Report Share Posted April 16, 2015 The "e" values look like they predict an upside of ~50 points for Eichel, and ~60 points for McDavid. I derived that upside by taking the higest "e" values from their respective leagues -- .70 (NCAA) and .52 (OHL). And that seems about right. More likely we see Eichel in the 40s and McDavid in the 50s next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patty16 Posted April 16, 2015 Report Share Posted April 16, 2015 The "e" values look like they predict an upside of ~50 points for Eichel, and ~60 points for McDavid. I derived that upside by taking the higest "e" values from their respective leagues -- .70 (NCAA) and .52 (OHL). And that seems about right. More likely we see Eichel in the 40s and McDavid in the 50s next year. I think that's about right He can get hurt anywhere, so I am not sure what your point is. He will get insurance either at the NCAA or NHL level to ensure future earnings if he is smart-- not the basic NCAA insurance that you cite but a much richer more expensive policy. Do you think if he goes to the NHL and has a huge injury at age 19 it won't affect future earnings? He can't cash in on his whole career by coming out now. And he can get as much insurance as an insurer will give based on career income projections. Now coming out now he starts his earning earlier, so over the life of his career he will likely make more the sooner he comes out. But the notion of coming out because of injury risk is not that big a deal, and an informed player will know that. Now I think JE will come out, but it is false comfort on that score to think he has to do it because of money. Think Andrew Luck for a recent example of staying in school and big money. Exactly, and players w expiring K's get coverage as well in case they blow out a knee at the end of the season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derrico Posted April 16, 2015 Report Share Posted April 16, 2015 (edited) The "e" values look like they predict an upside of ~50 points for Eichel, and ~60 points for McDavid. I derived that upside by taking the higest "e" values from their respective leagues -- .70 (NCAA) and .52 (OHL). And that seems about right. More likely we see Eichel in the 40s and McDavid in the 50s next year. I'll take the over on both. Am I reading this right that Crosby put up 102 points his rookie year?! That can't be right. If so, and McDavid is suppose to be at that level and Eichel not far behind I'm definitely taking the over. I get it was a different era right after the lock out but still...... Edited April 16, 2015 by Derrico Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shrader Posted April 16, 2015 Report Share Posted April 16, 2015 He can get hurt anywhere, so I am not sure what your point is. He will get insurance either at the NCAA or NHL level to ensure future earnings if he is smart-- not the basic NCAA insurance that you cite but a much richer more expensive policy. Do you think if he goes to the NHL and has a huge injury at age 19 it won't affect future earnings? He can't cash in on his whole career by coming out now. And he can get as much insurance as an insurer will give based on career income projections. Now coming out now he starts his earning earlier, so over the life of his career he will likely make more the sooner he comes out. But the notion of coming out because of injury risk is not that big a deal, and an informed player will know that. Now I think JE will come out, but it is false comfort on that score to think he has to do it because of money. Think Andrew Luck for a recent example of staying in school and big money. It doesn't need to be one or the other either. I can't imagine there is anything from stopping him from having a policy through BU AND one of his own. It's all kind of pointless though, because as you suggest, he's leaving. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted April 16, 2015 Report Share Posted April 16, 2015 Even if Eichel goes back and gets hurt the only way it affects his monetary value is if it's a career ender or otherwise makes him less of a player for the length of his career. Otherwise, it doesn't matter...he's still going to get the rookie max and a big 2nd/3rd contract when able. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted April 16, 2015 Report Share Posted April 16, 2015 No. You're just making things up. The NCAA sponsored program pays out up to $5Mil for exceptional players and there is a private market that will tailor a plan for one's needs. It still makes more sense for him to come out out of school and not have to put himself in a situation to deal with insurance issues. Question: Who pays the premium on that kind of insurance? It can't be cheap. Also, would you want to bet your life on an insurance company paying off? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PASabreFan Posted April 16, 2015 Report Share Posted April 16, 2015 The "e" values look like they predict an upside of ~50 points for Eichel, and ~60 points for McDavid. I derived that upside by taking the higest "e" values from their respective leagues -- .70 (NCAA) and .52 (OHL). And that seems about right. More likely we see Eichel in the 40s and McDavid in the 50s next year. If we went through all this for these guys to score 50ish points, a lot of people are going to be very unhappy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SDS Posted April 16, 2015 Report Share Posted April 16, 2015 If we went through all this for these guys to score 50ish points, a lot of people are going to be very unhappy. in their first year at age 18? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shrader Posted April 16, 2015 Report Share Posted April 16, 2015 If we went through all this for these guys to score 50ish points, a lot of people are going to be very unhappy. So the team immediately adding a new scoring leader would make people unhappy? I can't imagine any sane person expecting these kids to step in and immediately be a superstar. Crosby topped the 100 point mark as a rookie, but that was in a year where they actually enforced their new rules and the leading scorer (Thornton) put up 125 points. McEichel is entering a very different league where 90 points would get you the Art Ross. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patty16 Posted April 16, 2015 Report Share Posted April 16, 2015 If we went through all this for these guys to score 50ish points, a lot of people are going to be very unhappy. You are either trolling or have no idea what you are talking about. 50 points on a horrible team would be pretty good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Aud Smell Posted April 16, 2015 Report Share Posted April 16, 2015 (edited) I'll take the over on both. Am I reading this right that Crosby put up 102 points his rookie year?! That can't be right. If so, and McDavid is suppose to be at that level and Eichel not far behind I'm definitely taking the over. I get it was a different era right after the lock out but still...... 102 is right. But note what the blogger wrote: I decided to exclude 2005-06 from the data because scoring levels in the NHL were much higher in 2005-06 due to so many more power play chances and because the level of various other leagues in 2004-05 was skewed because of NHL players being dispersed due to the lockout. If we went through all this for these guys to score 50ish points, a lot of people are going to be very unhappy. Show of hands: Who (besides PA, I guess) will be unhappy if McJesus plays 77 games for the Sah-brays next year and notches 58 points? Edit: I am not raising my hand. I am instead looking around this forum with e-arched brows and an e-smirk on my face at anyone who does raise their hand. I may also have to e-slap anyone who raises their hand. Edited April 16, 2015 by That Aud Smell Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CallawaySabres Posted April 16, 2015 Report Share Posted April 16, 2015 102 is right. But note what the blogger wrote: I decided to exclude 2005-06 from the data because scoring levels in the NHL were much higher in 2005-06 due to so many more power play chances and because the level of various other leagues in 2004-05 was skewed because of NHL players being dispersed due to the lockout. Show of hands: Who (besides PA, I guess) will be unhappy if McJesus plays 77 games for the Sah-brays next year and notches 58 points? Edit: I am not raising my hand. I am instead looking around this forum with e-arched brows and an e-smirk on my face at anyone who does raise their hand. I may also have to e-slap anyone who raises their hand. Definitely going to start using that one.... a lot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derrico Posted April 16, 2015 Report Share Posted April 16, 2015 Definitely going to start using that one.... a lot I enjoyed the e-arched brows :w00t: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Aud Smell Posted April 16, 2015 Report Share Posted April 16, 2015 I enjoyed the e-arched brows :w00t: ha. thanks. the e-arch and e-smirk are maybe more like this. (Jesus, that's huge.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shrader Posted April 16, 2015 Report Share Posted April 16, 2015 That's what she said? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Dryden Posted April 16, 2015 Author Report Share Posted April 16, 2015 Question: Who pays the premium on that kind of insurance? It can't be cheap. Also, would you want to bet your life on an insurance company paying off? He does. It is not cheap, but the chances of a catastrophic injury are pretty low so it's not that bad. And I would never bet anything on what an insurance company will do when a claim is made, but this is pretty straightforward stuff and an insurance company can't be stiffing people and expect the business. I've insured racehorses for catastrophic injury, and it only happened once but the insurance was paid promptly and without debate once proof of how the injury was sustained was provided. I expect it would be no different for human athletes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted April 16, 2015 Report Share Posted April 16, 2015 He does. It is not cheap, but the chances of a catastrophic injury are pretty low so it's not that bad. And I would never bet anything on what an insurance company will do when a claim is made, but this is pretty straightforward stuff and an insurance company can't be stiffing people and expect the business. I've insured racehorses for catastrophic injury, and it only happened once but the insurance was paid promptly and without debate once proof of how the injury was sustained was provided. I expect it would be no different for human athletes. The chances of being struck by lightning are low. The chances of being severely injured playing hockey are quite significant. The premiums would be astronomical for a player with the earning potential of an Eichel. And that's my point. Assuming his parents aren't rich, how can he afford to take a policy out on himself that would replace even part of his future earnings? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patty16 Posted April 16, 2015 Report Share Posted April 16, 2015 The chances of being struck by lightning are low. The chances of being severely injured playing hockey are quite significant. The premiums would be astronomical for a player with the earning potential of an Eichel. And that's my point. Assuming his parents aren't rich, how can he afford to take a policy out on himself that would replace even part of his future earnings? BC they do an analysis in conjunction with scouts etc.... hockey has guaranteed contracts and we know about how much he's about to make.... so they know they can essentially finance his insurance... which is what these guys do.... the NCAA has a decent options but if you want the cadillac plan you will pay a lot more in interest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPie Posted April 16, 2015 Report Share Posted April 16, 2015 BC they do an analysis in conjunction with scouts etc.... hockey has guaranteed contracts and we know about how much he's about to make.... so they know they can essentially finance his insurance... which is what these guys do.... the NCAA has a decent options but if you want the cadillac plan you will pay a lot more in interest. Exactly. Let's say the insurance company offers $20M career-ending injury insurance for $1M (I'd think that at least 20 players would take that, so even if one guy is injured the insurance company is making a profit). So Eichel calls them up and says: yes, I'd like some of that insurance but I can't pay for it right now. The insurance company can easily say, "sure, that $1M will be charged 5% APR until you pay off the balance". Now, there's only really three ways it van go. Jack gets hurt, and the insurance company pays out. Maybe they just dock the $1M off the top and they go on their merry way. He doesn't get hurt, and the insurance company gets $1M+interest for doing nothing (other than assume the risk) when Jack can pay up. The primary risk is if Eichel flames out and can't pay. But that's not even "that" bad, since the insurance company hasn't actually paid anything out. They'd just have to sue him or work out a payment plan based on his normal-job salary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qwksndmonster Posted April 16, 2015 Report Share Posted April 16, 2015 (edited) Personally, I'm choosing to ignore the facts and pretend it was related to being drafted and coming here to save us. It's simply better that way. This is what I am doing as well. Until we win the lottery, that is (and if we don't, we have aud's bones to break blame) There's also the risk that he gets hurt in another year of skool and loses out on a lot of $$$$&&$$&&&&&&&&&$&$& I would hate for Eichel to miss out on all those sweet ampersands. Edited April 16, 2015 by qwksndmonster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Aud Smell Posted April 16, 2015 Report Share Posted April 16, 2015 This is what I am doing as well. Until we win the lottery, that is (and if we don't, we have aud's bones to break blame) Ha. It's a new day, man. I'm not going to be afraid to wish for, think about, talk about nice things for Buffalo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qwksndmonster Posted April 16, 2015 Report Share Posted April 16, 2015 Ha. It's a new day, man. I'm not going to be afraid to wish for, think about, talk about nice things for Buffalo. I'm with you. ...and it might be the last 2 days that we can daydream about McDavid in blue and gold... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derrico Posted April 16, 2015 Report Share Posted April 16, 2015 Ha. It's a new day, man. I'm not going to be afraid to wish for, think about, talk about nice things for Buffalo. Amen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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