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Official 2015 NHL Draft Thread

LGR4GM

By LGR4GM
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dudacek Hall of Famer

dudacek

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Still more than two weeks to go, but I am ready to be the first draft geek here to handicap this draft for Buffalo.

 

Jack Eichel may have taken the suspense out of our top pick this year, but holding 21 and 31 really makes what happens after Jack intriguing for me.

 

In 2012, picks 21 and 42 got us up to 14 in order to pick Zemgus. With a little bit better package at our disposal, could we get as high as 11? Bob McKenzie says there are 11 players in the top tier this year. The possibility of a trade made me focus in on four distinct groups of players.

 

Players worth trading up for

I see a top grouping of 13 guys. You know the top two and I would bet big money Provorov, Hanifan, Strome and Marner will be gone before pick 10. I see Kyle Connor and Matt Barzal as potential first-line centres that should be valued at the same level as Max Domi. We won’t be moving up for those two, but they will be targeted by other teams between six and 13. That leaves a group of five very good players. One or two could squeak into a spot where we could — and should — conceivably package 21 and 31 to snag him.

 

 

 

Zach Werenski: the longest of long shots because if he slips to the 10-14 range, there will be a very happy team waiting for him to drop into their laps. Big, all-situations LD, he fits our needs perfectly. I really don’t see the gap between him and Hanifan and I think Werenski may offer more offence.

 

Pavel Zacha: Big, complete power forward with an edge. A lot of teams are doing their homework on this kid because he has great tools, but had a bit of an uneven year. He plays centre, but I can see him as a great option as a skilled, heavy winger, riding shotgun with Jack or Sam.

 

Mikko Rantanen: Another power forward who can score. Again, he just seems to fit the Tim Murray mould of a smart guy with enough power to drive possession and enough skill to finish what our skilled centres start. Would immediately climb to the top of the list of prospects to play the right side with our top centres.

 

Lawson Crouse: He took some shots when people were talking about him as a top-five pick, but at around 12, he is a fantastic choice. Everything we love about Fasching, but better — the definition of heavy with a complete game and enough skill to play in the top six. He’s not a sniper, but he’s a powerful skater and a better scorer than he gets credit for. He’s also a massive, character kid who can dominate the dirty areas.

 

Timo Meier: I don’t think this kid gets enough attention. He’s in the mix with the above three power forwards size-wise and is probably smarter than each. He doesn’t take a shift off, skates well and can score goals.  I think he’s undervalued and a perfect complementary winger to a skilled, right-handed centre. Werenski is the dream if we move up, but Meier is the most realistic target and he could have a huge payoff.

 

 

 

Players who we would be lucky to see available at 21

Next up is a group of players who are generally projected to go ahead of our 21st pick, but could potentially fall to us. Any would be great value there if they did. I wouldn’t mind Murray sacrificing pick 51 to snare at least the first two.

 

 

 

Jakub Zboril: This is the guy I had long thought would be our most likely pick at 21, but I’m seeing more and more lists that put him in the mid-teens. The fact he is an LD who has decent size, can skate and makes smart decisions has to put him on our radar. But what I really like about him is that he has a nasty edge to his game. He’s got me thinking Mark Pysyk with Mike Weber’s attitude.

 

Travis Konecny: a small winger/centre who never stops skating and can put up points. Sounds like Tyler Ennis, but Konecny doesn’t have the slippery elusiveness of Tyler’s game. He makes up for it with a surprisingly strong ability in close quarters, and a great head for the game.

 

Nick Merkley: the fact we need heavier wingers might put you off of Merkley, who is neither big, nor strong and he doesn’t score a lot of goals. But I like him because he is such a smart, competitive hockey player who makes plays. I see a Justin Williams-like future in this kid.

 

Evgeni Svechnikov: this guy looks like a no-brainer for Buffalo in terms of fit. He’s a RW with a nice mix of size and skill, who works hard, plays smart and creates offence. Looks like a very safe pick in the middle of the first round with some good upside.

 

Colin White: This centre who could play anywhere is another safe pick. He is probably a touch underrated. He is a great teammate — a glue guy a coach will love. He’s dropped from his pre-season rankings because he didn’t put up the numbers some expected of him. I think there is a good chance that had more to do with injuries and a bout of mono than anything else.

 

 

 

Players who make sense at 21, that we would be lucky to see available at 31

Here’s where things get trickier. From what I’ve seen, there isn’t a huge consensus on how to rank players from the late teens into the mid-40s. These are players I like who are often projected to be selected somewhere around our second first-round pick or lower.

 

 

 

Ilya Samsonov: I’ve been a voice in the wilderness on here about the need to use a high pick to nab an elite young goalie. So I am probably one of the few excited to hear Tim Murray say they have Samsonov ranked right around #21. He’s big, athletic, very competitive and compared to Vasilevksy. Yes please.

 

Brock Boeser: A power right winger who can skate and score and works his ass off. He compares favourably to Svechnikov. Given his ranking and our needs, he might be our most likely pick at 21 and I would have no problem with that at all.

 

Jeremy Roy: What’s the deal with Duncan Keith? He’s not that fast and not that big, but he might also be the league’s best defenceman. Teams might be looking at Roy’s game, thinking of Keith, and crossing their fingers. He’s just a savvy guy who knows the game and plays his position so well at both ends of the ice.

 

Oliver Kylington: A high-risk, high-reward player who might be the best skater in the draft. He certainly fills our need for a puck-moving LD. If you can satisfy yourself he has the makeup to take advantage of his skillset, he could be a homerun.  I don’t see him as Murray’s type, but given their amount of picks, the Sabres are in a position to take a swing if one of their scouts goes to bat for him.

 

Thomas Chabot: Good skater, good passer, sound decision-maker — he’s not the most exciting pick in the draft, but he checks all the boxes and fills a need for puck-moving LD. He’s got the tools and is a pretty safe pick — a Hanifan/Werenski-lite, if you will.

 

Joel Eriksson Ek: It’s not like the Sabres need a second-line centre, but this Swede might have too much going on for them to pass on. Smart, responsible and skilled, he needs to get stronger, but has a big frame and the skillset to project well as an NHLer — kind of a centre ice version of Chabot.

 

 

 

2nd-rounders I’m high on

Finally, a handful of underdog players generally ranked somewhere in the 2nd round. There will likely be more highly ranked players available at the top of the second. But these are darker horses I would be fine with at 31 and ecstatic about at 51

 

 

 

Anthony Beauvillier: My favourite dark horse of the draft. This kid plays hard on offence and on defence, is fast, has a nice skill set and won’t back down from anything or anyone. Yes, he’s small, but he brings so much that I could see him playing nearly anywhere in the line-up. I see some parallels to JT Compher – Beauvillier might not be as edgy, but he might have more talent.

 

Vince Dunn: We need a left-handed defenceman who can carry the puck and work the power play. We could do a lot worse than Dunn, an exciting, smallish, offence-first blue-liner. He works hard, moves the puck well, leads the rush and puts up points.

 

Noah Juulsen: another LD worth looking at. Juulsen isn’t at Dunn’s level offensively, but he has a physical edge to his game and is annoying to play against. He does play the PP and could contribute at both ends as second-pairing NHLer. Button compares him to Kevin Bieksa.

 

Christian Fischer: this RW doesn’t get a lot of hype but he seems to be a load along the boards in the offensive zone. A big-bodied hard-worker and a puck possession guy who has produced decent offence and plays a heavy Tim Murray game, I see William Carrier.

 

 

Edited by dudacek
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Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

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That was an awesome write-up dudacek. The best breakdown of prospect I've seen on this board. I honestly don't think there was anything in there I disagree with aside from maybe the absence of Paul Bittner. At this point I'm more hopeful that Bittner would be there at 31 than I am hopeful that we take him at 21.

 

This is going to be one hell of a draft, and I'm excited to see what Murray does. There is no avenue that I think would be disappointing... We could trade up and land two awesome high-end prospects. We could trade out and acquire somebody that will be playing immediately. We could sit where we're at and land multiple strong prospects to keep the cupboard full.

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#freejame Second Liner

#freejame

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Still more than two weeks to go, but I am ready to be the first draft geek here to handicap this draft for Buffalo.

 

Great write up! I would take a chance on Zacha. There's a reason he was so highly rated coming into the season. I get that the suspensions may be worry some, but I think he would be a great fit. 

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dudacek Hall of Famer

dudacek

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Thanks guys.

 

I don't like Bittner at 21 given the other options that should be there.

He just strikes me as a guy who has never had to pay the price and I'm not sure if he will.

 

Given his tools though, I might be OK with him at 31, along with a few other interesting but flawed possible first-rounders like Harkins, Debrusk, Carlo and Sprong.

 

Late first and early second is an interesting part of the draft where we could see some movement as teams jockey to get their guy.

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Crusader1969 First Liner

Crusader1969

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Great write up! I would take a chance on Zacha. There's a reason he was so highly rated coming into the season. I get that the suspensions may be worry some, but I think he would be a great fit. 

 

im with you on Zacha if he drops out of the top 10. My gut tells me he will go around 7 and out of reach for the Sabres.

 

Im sticking with Guryanov at 21 for the Sabres too much skill and talent to pass up- maybe they should start a rumour that he is headed to the KHL and pick him at 31?

 

from the USA today:

 

As Red Line Report's chief scout sat in the stands last month in Switzerland at the World Under-18 Championships, he watched the action on the ice during Russia's games and then studied our rankings from the April issue. And the obvious jumped out at him: We had broken our own long-standing rule about ranking prospects only based on their merits as players.

That, as we have viewed it, is the only real function of a truly independent scouting service. So looking at our rankings of several Russians — specifically Denis Guryanov, Ilya Samsonov, Nikolai Chebykin, and Kirill Kaprizov — we realized that subconsciously, we had artificially downgraded their actual talent level because of the "Russian factor."

Well, no more. Back to our guiding principle. Therefore, we have adjusted those players' rankings significantly this month to reflect our true beliefs. And that means, first of all, that Guryanov is up to No. 8 overall - because if his last name were Smith and he had played this season in the Ontario Hockey League, there's no way he wouldn't be a top 10 pick.

Denis Guryanov (Lada Togliatti): Has the hardest, and best, shot of anyone in the draft. No question in our minds that he's a top 10 overall talent.

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Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

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im with you on Zacha if he drops out of the top 10. My gut tells me he will go around 7 and out of reach for the Sabres.

 

Im sticking with Guryanov at 21 for the Sabres too much skill and talent to pass up- maybe they should start a rumour that he is headed to the KHL and pick him at 31?

 

from the USA today:

 

As Red Line Report's chief scout sat in the stands last month in Switzerland at the World Under-18 Championships, he watched the action on the ice during Russia's games and then studied our rankings from the April issue. And the obvious jumped out at him: We had broken our own long-standing rule about ranking prospects only based on their merits as players.

That, as we have viewed it, is the only real function of a truly independent scouting service. So looking at our rankings of several Russians — specifically Denis Guryanov, Ilya Samsonov, Nikolai Chebykin, and Kirill Kaprizov — we realized that subconsciously, we had artificially downgraded their actual talent level because of the "Russian factor."

Well, no more. Back to our guiding principle. Therefore, we have adjusted those players' rankings significantly this month to reflect our true beliefs. And that means, first of all, that Guryanov is up to No. 8 overall - because if his last name were Smith and he had played this season in the Ontario Hockey League, there's no way he wouldn't be a top 10 pick.

Denis Guryanov (Lada Togliatti): Has the hardest, and best, shot of anyone in the draft. No question in our minds that he's a top 10 overall talent.

He already is in the KHL and will be next year.

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North Buffalo All Star

North Buffalo

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Post of the month.

 

Agreed, awesome info and insight. Since I haven't had time to digest the stuff I have read about these guys, nor have I watched them much..., This write-up was great and a good primer for the draft. Wonder if you see any late round gems out there, guys who might be late bloomers or highschoolers who need more coaching? Edited by North Buffalo
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Crusader1969 First Liner

Crusader1969

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a blog about Kylington - Doesn't change my opinion of him. If it was a skating competition, i'm sure he would be a top 10 pick. His poor play, especially defensive zone mistakes makes me want to stay clear of him in round 1. Even if the Sabres trade down to late first round there will be better options.

 

http://flamesnation.ca/2015/6/8/flames-first-round-targets-2015-oliver-kylington

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