What if rebuilding through the draft doesn't work?

[Sabres Fan in NS]

How terrible would you be if you seeded an expansion team with Barrasso in goal, Housley on defense and Andreychuk up front?

 

Terrible enough not to add to those pieces and win a cup in Buffalo.

 

To be clear, I really like Scotty, but for whatever reason as a GM he never won a cup.

[PASabreFan]

Then it doesn't work. The best approach, of course, is to tank really bad for a few seasons and get the top player in the draft consecutive years as the Pens did.

 

The odds of doing that seem very long. I don't like the element of luck the Sabres have introduced to this whole process. Taking the easy way out. Parents quit their job and use food stamp money to buy lottery tickets.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Then it doesn't work. The best approach, of course, is to tank really bad for a few seasons and get the top player in the draft consecutive years as the Pens did.

 

Well, they were fortunate to have the first pick in a year that the player to be selected first overall was the best player to come along since the Penguins drafted Mario first overall 20 some odd years earlier.

 

And then came Malkin ...

 

The Sabres, or any other re-building team, will not be able to copy that feat at this time. So, sighting the Penguins as a team to model after is flawed, IMO. Detroit, Chicago and even Boston maybe, Pens no, again, IMO.

[Eleven]

On Black Sunday, for those who haven't been around to see my post from last year or from 2011: Quinn wanted Briere and Drury gone ($). Ruff really wanted to keep Briere at least. Regier made the decision not to fight Quinn for Briere.

[TrueBlueGED]

The odds of doing that seem very long. I don't like the element of luck the Sabres have introduced to this whole process. Taking the easy way out. Parents quit their job and use food stamp money to buy lottery tickets.

 

There's a huge element of luck in every approach to winning the Cup.

[North Buffalo]

There's a huge element of luck in every approach to winning the Cup.

Sure there is, but having a competitive and entertaining team that befits the City of Buffalo is not luck and luck is made by hard work and good decisions. I have seen a lack of good decisions complemented by a lack of hard work by the players giving me serious lack of faith in the organization.

[Eleven]

Sure there is, but having a competitive and entertaining team that befits the City of Buffalo is not luck and luck is made by hard work and good decisions. I have seen a lack of good decisions complemented by a lack of hard work by the players giving me serious lack of faith in the organization.

 

And there we have it. Full marks to Schoeny from North Buffalo.

[...]

Something I haven't seen mentioned explicitly (which doesn't mean much), although I have seen the NHL media allude to it, is that this rebuild must be/has to be/is based almost strictly on advanced stats. I think when the NHL media references the Sabres rebuild as "interesting" or "fascinating" this is what they're alluding to; it's an experiment in team-building the likes of which haven't been seen yet, because advanced stats wasn't mature enough until now to do something like this.

 

Think about it: Regier LOVES his stats and spreadsheets. Somewhere, there is a spreadsheet with tabs of various scenarios. Each tabbed page has a complete "plan" with its associated stats, probabilities, data, comments, names, lists, and conclusions. Each plan is based upon certain, important, variables, like "If Awarded First Pick 2014", "If Awarded First Pick 2015", "# of Picks 2-10 In Hand 2014", "# of Picks 2-10 In Hand 2015", "Total Picks In Hand 2014", etc. etc.

 

The conclusions for each plan are arrived at based on advanced stats and calculated probabilities, which each conclusion resulting in a list of goals to complete the plans.

 

I think this is the only way Regier could have sold the tank plan and retain his job within the current climate.

 

In my opinion, regardless of the probabilities, relying on the draft to completely rebuild the team is a gamble, and as such can't be relied upon to be successful. They need to be willing to get certain players (whoever that would be) via free agency at all costs to flesh out a contending team and, unfortunately, it seems that is simply not in the plan right now.

 

 

[Claude_Verret]

In my opinion, regardless of the probabilities, relying on the draft to completely rebuild the team is a gamble, and as such can't be relied upon to be successful. They need to be willing to get certain players (whoever that would be) via free agency at all costs to flesh out a contending team and, unfortunately, it seems that is simply not in the plan right now.

 

It's tough to complement your team with FA's when the FA's that you want don't want to sign up to play for the Buffalo Sabres.

[...]

 

 

It's tough to complement your team with FA's when the FA's that you want don't want to sign up to play for the Buffalo Sabres.

 

Whatever, they have to do something about it. The draft is a gamble.

[dudacek]

Something I haven't seen mentioned explicitly (which doesn't mean much), although I have seen the NHL media allude to it, is that this rebuild must be/has to be/is based almost strictly on advanced stats. I think when the NHL media references the Sabres rebuild as "interesting" or "fascinating" this is what they're alluding to; it's an experiment in team-building the likes of which haven't been seen yet, because advanced stats wasn't mature enough until now to do something like this.

 

Think about it: Regier LOVES his stats and spreadsheets. Somewhere, there is a spreadsheet with tabs of various scenarios. Each tabbed page has a complete "plan" with its associated stats, probabilities, data, comments, names, lists, and conclusions. Each plan is based upon certain, important, variables, like "If Awarded First Pick 2014", "If Awarded First Pick 2015", "# of Picks 2-10 In Hand 2014", "# of Picks 2-10 In Hand 2015", "Total Picks In Hand 2014", etc. etc.

 

The conclusions for each plan are arrived at based on advanced stats and calculated probabilities, which each conclusion resulting in a list of goals to complete the plans.

 

I think this is the only way Regier could have sold the tank plan and retain his job within the current climate.

 

In my opinion, regardless of the probabilities, relying on the draft to completely rebuild the team is a gamble, and as such can't be relied upon to be successful. They need to be willing to get certain players (whoever that would be) via free agency at all costs to flesh out a contending team and, unfortunately, it seems that is simply not in the plan right now.

 

Great post. Rings very much true. So many questions Darcy probably has answers for that he's not sharing.

[dudacek]

This will be ignored by the "no one will ever want to come to Buffalo" crowd, but strong words from Regehr to Bill Hoppe (full story on the front page):

 

“We loved it,” he said. “It was something that … I know my wife was very emotional about it because she made some very good friends here. We were treated better than I’ve ever been treated anywhere else, not just by the hockey team and the organization, but by the people of Western New York. We lived in the city, which not a lot of with young families live in the city, but (we) thoroughly enjoyed it.”

[Claude_Verret]

This will be ignored by the "no one will ever want to come to Buffalo" crowd, but strong words from Regehr to Bill Hoppe (full story on the front page):

 

“We loved it,” he said. “It was something that … I know my wife was very emotional about it because she made some very good friends here. We were treated better than I’ve ever been treated anywhere else, not just by the hockey team and the organization, but by the people of Western New York. We lived in the city, which not a lot of with young families live in the city, but (we) thoroughly enjoyed it.”

 

Most players say this once they get to Buffalo. The problem is getting them here. Pegula had to put on the full court press just to get Regehr to waive his no trade clause. Parise and Suter shunned top dollar offers and Richards made it clear he didn't want to come here before they even had a chance to make him one. The draft is a crapshoot, but free agency is an even bigger one when you are dealing with the recruiting problem the Sabres have.

[shrader]

The Hawks are a good example, but they stunk for such a loooooooong time. And Toews/Kane are not generational talents individually like Crosby is, but as a tandem they are pretty close.

 

In any case your point about Yashin and Phillips is what I had in mind.

 

I'd just like to throw out there that I think Pittsburgh actually has two players who I would call generational talent. And they got Malkin by LOSING a lottery (not to mention that if they had won that lottery they would have had one less ball in the Crosby lottery).

[Jsixspd]

My comfort level with the draft picks just increased about 10,000 percent now that Regier and Ruffton won't be making the decisions as to how to use them.

[Mike Oxhurtz]

Many of us got what we wanted today (and then some). I did not want to see Regier be the one to rebuild the Sabres (check). Regier did not understand the concept of building a team around good quality centers, as he had a ton of wingers and a good goalie. Bringing back Ted Nolan was a very pleasant and awesome surprise! Maybe now the Sabres we be known (once again) as the hardest working team in hockey.

[26CornerBlitz]

Many of us got what we wanted today (and then some). I did not want to see Regier be the one to rebuild the Sabres (check). Regier did not understand the concept of building a team around good quality centers, as he had a ton of wingers and a good goalie. Bringing back Ted Nolan was a very pleasant and awesome surprise! Maybe now the Sabres we be known (once again) as the hardest working team in hockey.

 

This current forward group up with the Sabres is pretty lame. Several of these forward prospects in Europe, the USHL, College, and Junior Hockey have to pan out.

[Mike Oxhurtz]

This current forward group up with the Sabres is pretty lame. Several of these forward prospects in Europe, the USHL, College, and Junior Hockey have to pan out.

 

I agree 100% There's no doubt the roster needs an overhaul though. The Sabres coaches/management will need to make these guys shape up or ship out.

[bunomatic]

I agree 100% There's no doubt the roster needs an overhaul though. The Sabres coaches/management will need to make these guys shape up or ship out.

 

Accountability will hopefully become the new catchphrase around the Sabres organization. Its been missing for a loooooong time.