Buyers or Sellers?

[fan2456]

I agree we need to accept the reality that DR is going to be the guy making the moves at the deadline, and that he would be better at selling than buying. Unless there is something fantastic he can do, I hope he stops at selling.

 

As for the bolded, while, obviously, no one knows what will happen with DR at the end of the season, I tend to think his job may be more on the line than it seems. The reason I think that is because I simply don't believe that the Pegula regime is the same as the Golisano regime and will accept medocrity long-term.

 

Direct evidence being the window-dressings they changed immediately - those things at the arena they could change immediately. Indirectly, I think Pegula is more of an "honorable" person and his words carry more weight with himself than it appears presently, and we have his word that this team will be a cup contender, if not a cup winner. He's directly put his reputation on the line not only with the coming-out media party when he bought the team, but also by personally making promises to players and their families (ie: Regehr).

 

With the Time-Warner debacle, the team is losing advertising income and public presence; with the the season record, the team's reputation is shot; with the lack of action, the management is losing respect; these add up to a huge publicity hit that will take some aggressive activity to reverse. If nothing is done, all of the initial work in trying to create an environment that attracts quality players will have no cache, and could lead to a loss in ticket sales. The latter two points are dangerously close to being reality if any of the anecdotal evidence is an indication.

 

So, DR's position, I think, is on very shaky ground, because what he does in the next five (5) months is critical to what happens with organization in the near and long term. Pegula may be patient, but every person has their limits and there are already indications he's reached his (comments about goal-tending, traveling with Cliff Benson and Ken Sawyer), but just can not express it publickly.

 

Like everything, this is all conjecture and opinion, based on what we read into statements and media reports. I tend to agree with Trueblue. I don't thing TP is going to react that quickly. His injury comments and Black's statements in public make me think we will have Darcy into next year. I think many of us have a much longer history with our current coach and management and are more objective in our assessments.

[...]

Like everything, this is all conjecture and opinion, based on what we read into statements and media reports. I tend to agree with Trueblue. I don't thing TP is going to react that quickly. His injury comments and Black's statements in public make me think we will have Darcy into next year. I think many of us have a much longer history with our current coach and management and are more objective in our assessments.

 

Forums, as per their nature, tend to be all conjecture and opinion. So, I think the obvious is obvious.

 

I think the speculation/perception that Pegula "will be slow to react" will be put to bed once the Sabres' season is over. He has already been slow, and has been raked over the coals for it locally, nationally, and internationally. The fan-base - ticket buyers - have been reacting to the Sabres' lack of action. The fan-base are the cash cows and I don't care that Pegula has a few billion dollars, money is money and if it looks like money is going to be going down the drain due to INACTION, then the dude with the money is going to do something about it.

 

Even Golisano and Quinn took steps to increase ticket sales. That ship has sailed - the emperor wears no clothes. The organization will have to do SOMETHING, and they know that ONLY moving a piece or two will not cut it.

[fan2456]

Forums, as per their nature, tend to be all conjecture and opinion. So, I think the obvious is obvious.

 

I think the speculation/perception that Pegula "will be slow to react" will be put to bed once the Sabres' season is over. He has already been slow, and has been raked over the coals for it locally, nationally, and internationally. The fan-base - ticket buyers - have been reacting to the Sabres' lack of action. The fan-base are the cash cows and I don't care that Pegula has a few billion dollars, money is money and if it looks like money is going to be going down the drain due to INACTION, then the dude with the money is going to do something about it.

 

Even Golisano and Quinn took steps to increase ticket sales. That ship has sailed - the emperor wears no clothes. The organization will have to do SOMETHING, and they know that ONLY moving a piece or two will not cut it.

I hope you're right, I just don't read it the same way. I'm also thinking that a lot of the people on the season ticket waiting list are hoping people jump ship. I applied for my tiks in 1975, and it was 1981 before I got them. However, the product was better and they were cheaper. The waiting list is supposedly much bigger now.

[...]

I hope you're right, I just don't read it the same way. I'm also thinking that a lot of the people on the season ticket waiting list are hoping people jump ship. I applied for my tiks in 1975, and it was 1981 before I got them. However, the product was better and they were cheaper. The waiting list is supposedly much bigger now.

 

The waiting list is "huge" from what I know. Don't think I'm saying overall season ticket sales will drop. Thanks to the waiting list it could take years of failure for that to happen.

 

What they would measure would be a combination of season ticket and mini-pack turnover, single ticket and merchandise sales, event attendance, and correspondence, among other things.

 

There are plenty of ways to gauge fan-sentiment and project revenue before season ticket sales drop significantly. The whole idea is to avoid the latter.

[nfreeman]

I think the speculation/perception that Pegula "will be slow to react" will be put to bed once the Sabres' season is over. He has already been slow, and has been raked over the coals for it locally, nationally, and internationally. The fan-base - ticket buyers - have been reacting to the Sabres' lack of action. The fan-base are the cash cows and I don't care that Pegula has a few billion dollars, money is money and if it looks like money is going to be going down the drain due to INACTION, then the dude with the money is going to do something about it.

 

Even Golisano and Quinn took steps to increase ticket sales. That ship has sailed - the emperor wears no clothes. The organization will have to do SOMETHING, and they know that ONLY moving a piece or two will not cut it.

The waiting list is "huge" from what I know. Don't think I'm saying overall season ticket sales will drop. Thanks to the waiting list it could take years of failure for that to happen.

 

What they would measure would be a combination of season ticket and mini-pack turnover, single ticket and merchandise sales, event attendance, and correspondence, among other things.

 

There are plenty of ways to gauge fan-sentiment and project revenue before season ticket sales drop significantly. The whole idea is to avoid the latter.

 

I'm sure you're right that there will be quantifiable negative feedback from the fan base during and after this debacle of a season. However, I think that TP is much more likely to act based on his and TB's (following consultation with their advisers) deliberated beliefs about what is most likely to produce a winning team than they are to act based on fan feedback.

[...]

 

I'm sure you're right that there will be quantifiable negative feedback from the fan base during and after this debacle of a season. However, I think that TP is much more likely to act based on his and TB's (following consultation with their advisers) deliberated beliefs about what is most likely to produce a winning team than they are to act based on fan feedback.

 

I'm not talking about fan-feedback! :wallbash:

 

I'm talking business! Fan activity is a way to predict business over a certain period. With lowered fan activity, there is lower income. I doubt the club wants to go back to the days when the arena never sold out and net-revenues were in the red.

 

I don't care how much of a fan Pegula is, he is still a business man, and eventually the reality of the situation has to kick in. He and Black will HAVE to do something to reverse the trajectory they're on, or the Sabres, as a business, will FAIL. Right now it may not look that way on the outside, but all the signs are there for a dramatic business failure unless things change.

[korab rules]

I'm not talking about fan-feedback! :wallbash:

 

I'm talking business! Fan activity is a way to predict business over a certain period. With lowered fan activity, there is lower income. I doubt the club wants to go back to the days when the arena never sold out and net-revenues were in the red.

 

I don't care how much of a fan Pegula is, he is still a business man, and eventually the reality of the situation has to kick in. He and Black will HAVE to do something to reverse the trajectory they're on, or the Sabres, as a business, will FAIL. Right now it may not look that way on the outside, but all the signs are there for a dramatic business failure unless things change.

If they win, people will come.

 

Seriously, they don't have to worry about anything but winning. Just win and everything will take care of itself.

 

Lucky for us, he cares more about winning than money, which is a refreshing change from the prior admin.

 

Sizzle - you have it exactly right. Pegs won't put up with losing for long. The Sabres reason for existence is to win a Stanley Cup.

[nfreeman]

I'm not talking about fan-feedback! :wallbash:

 

I'm talking business! Fan activity is a way to predict business over a certain period. With lowered fan activity, there is lower income. I doubt the club wants to go back to the days when the arena never sold out and net-revenues were in the red.

 

I don't care how much of a fan Pegula is, he is still a business man, and eventually the reality of the situation has to kick in. He and Black will HAVE to do something to reverse the trajectory they're on, or the Sabres, as a business, will FAIL. Right now it may not look that way on the outside, but all the signs are there for a dramatic business failure unless things change.

 

I hear ya. I was using "fan feedback" somewhat imprecisely to mean "economic feedback", i.e. in the same context you were discussing -- not in the context of yobs calling up WGR and complaining (or for that matter posting complaints here). My bottom line is the same though -- IMHO they aren't going to make decisions based on greater-than-expected turnover on the season ticket or a decline in merchandise sales. They're going to make them based on what they think will bring them closer to the goal -- which is a shiny trophy goal, not a profitability goal.

[...]

I hear ya. I was using "fan feedback" somewhat imprecisely to mean "economic feedback", i.e. in the same context you were discussing -- not in the context of yobs calling up WGR and complaining (or for that matter posting complaints here). My bottom line is the same though -- IMHO they aren't going to make decisions based on greater-than-expected turnover on the season ticket or a decline in merchandise sales. They're going to make them based on what they think will bring them closer to the goal -- which is a shiny trophy goal, not a profitability goal.

 

Check. Or, CHECK! :w00t:

 

See, this is where I think the Pegula bravado has its limits. While I think that is the goal (winning a Cup or two), I don't think that they will do it despite the business operations, whether they believe they can, or want to. It kind of all goes hand-in-hand IMHO.

 

Without a well-run hockey business, you're not going to attract the players who they really need to come here and make their mark.

 

They just need to WIN, as has been stated, and, yes, absolutely, most things will take care of themselves - hence we have gone fill-circle and this entire meme rests upon the decisions of DR over the next five months.

[TheChimp]

How many Sabres players do you guys think are secretly wishing they get traded right now? I'd say 75-80% of them.

[nfreeman]

How many Sabres players do you guys think are secretly wishing they get traded right now? I'd say 75-80% of them.

 

Why? They're paid extremely well (and in almost every case well above what they deserve), they have plush facilities, they have an owner with a giant mountain of money that he's prepared to spend in order to win, and there are never any consequences for failure. Who wouldn't want that gig?

[Samson's Flow]

Why? They're paid extremely well (and in almost every case well above what they deserve), they have plush facilities, they have an owner with a giant mountain of money that he's prepared to spend in order to win, and there are never any consequences for failure. Who wouldn't want that gig?

I would say players that are more motivated/concerned with winning than a cushy job with no recourse for failure. There are plenty of business professionals that would want out of a company if it was more resort than productive work. I would think there are plenty of NHL'ers that feel the same way.

 

Unfortunately, the Sabres roster doesn't seem to have many of those kind of players (I name Gerbe, Regher and... ? )

[billsrcursed]

I would say players that are more motivated/concerned with winning than a cushy job with no recourse for failure. There are plenty of business professionals that would want out of a company if it was more resort than productive work. I would think there are plenty of NHL'ers that feel the same way. Unfortunately, the Sabres roster doesn't seem to have many of those kind of players (I name Gerbe, Regher and... ? )

 

I think the players you're referring to are the ones hoping the "others" are shipped out.

 

I'm sure guys like Stafford and Roy are convinced they're being held back by Lindy's system and fan resentment, and landing somewhere else is going to make them stars. Makes me giggle...

 

- Mouse Potato

[TheChimp]

I would say players that are more motivated/concerned with winning than a cushy job with no recourse for failure. There are plenty of business professionals that would want out of a company if it was more resort than productive work. I would think there are plenty of NHL'ers that feel the same way.

 

Unfortunately, the Sabres roster doesn't seem to have many of those kind of players (I name Gerbe, Regher and... ? )

I actually see a guy like Gerbe wanting to stay. He's young and he generates a good fan following with his hard play. Look at it another way. Guys who want out are probably the ones that keep getting exposed by the local fans and media for being the lazybones and primadonnas they are, and want out for that reason, also knowing that they're also the kind of players that teams making a real push for the postseason might take a chance on in the short term...and hey, for lazybones, what would be better than going somewhere that you can try for three months, win a Cup, and then go back to sucking?

[Samson's Flow]

I actually see a guy like Gerbe wanting to stay. He's young and he generates a good fan following with his hard play. Look at it another way. Guys who want out are probably the ones that keep getting exposed by the local fans and media for being the lazybones and primadonnas they are, and want out for that reason, also knowing that they're also the kind of players that teams making a real push for the postseason might take a chance on in the short term...and hey, for lazybones, what would be better than going somewhere that you can try for three months, win a Cup, and then go back to sucking?

I hear ya, even the laziest player in the league could probably get motivated to play for a few months for a chance at winning the cup. Especially as a UFA, then you would get a cup, a big payday and a new team -- where you would never have to give a real effort again :wallbash:

[TheChimp]

How many more games do the Sabres have to lose before Darcy starts selling, do you think? Conversely, is there a team we are watching hovering around 8th and using THEIR lack of success the next few games to make our decision? Or, because it's Darcy Regier we're talking about, is he hiding under his desk with the fax machine unplugged again, you think?

[apuszczalowski]

How many more games do the Sabres have to lose before Darcy starts selling, do you think? Conversely, is there a team we are watching hovering around 8th and using THEIR lack of success the next few games to make our decision? Or, because it's Darcy Regier we're talking about, is he hiding under his desk with the fax machine unplugged again, you think?

I don't think there is a number of losses for them to be sellers. I don't see them believing that they will ever be "sellers"

 

They will make some moves, but it won't be to start a full rebuild. I think they see themselves as buyers and sellers. They know they need to move some deadweight and make a few moves, but not to collect draft picks and restock the minors. If guys like Roy and Stafford are moved for picks, those picks will probably be moved to bring in nhl replacements. This is a front office that believes that the reason for this teams failures this season were injuries, and so far, the play on the ice since almost everyone returning to the ice isn't proving them wrong. I don't expect a huge splash, but I can see them moving atleast Roy to a team that believes he can succeed in a change of scenery (maybe Stafford too if they are blown away by a deal) and then making a move or 2 to try and replace what was lost.

 

Don't hold your breath (well, maybe some of you can) expecting to see a fire sale or guys being dumped to collect picks and prospects to start a big rebuild. This team will end up with a roster tweak with hopes that its enough to turn things around.

[Taro T]

This is the worst thing the Sabres could do. Halfhearted efforts will only hurt this team going forward. Right now the Sabres are not in the "hunt.." They need to be honest with themselves and put what's best for the team at the forefront. Holding on to some long shot dream at the expense of significant change will be extremely damaging. There are plenty of teams actually in the "hunt." The Sabres need to take advantage of that. Value of some of the assets they could deal may never be higher.

I didn't take her comment as referring to staying in the hunt for this season, maybe I misinterpreted it. I took it as more of a 'they don't have to take a multiseason step back to make the team better and get it to contender status and a full-out sell will make next year another rebuilding year.'

 

I want to see them selling and am fine w/ missing the playoffs this year (not happy about it, but have become resigned to it - and am actually looking forward to having a top 10 pick in the draft; 'unfortunately' it doesn't look like they'll have top 3). While anyone is expendable for the right price, I wouldn't be looking to move either goalie. McNabb will be with the big club next year, so Gragnani is on the way out. If Leopold needs to go as part of package to land someone they want, I'm fine with it but wouldn't be looking to move him just to free up a spot for McNabb. A year of having a 'settled' D should make this same bunch much stronger next year.

 

Forwards: Roy and Stafford can't pack their bags soon enough. I don't want to trade Vanek or Adam and would make sure I kept at least 1 of Ennis and Gerbe and I would also keep Gaustad unless they know he won't settle for a reasonable contract and/or they have a faceoff specialist in mind. I'd prefer to keep Pominville and would be sad to see Kaleta go just because of his local roots; but any other forward (including Kaleta) currently on the roster can go if somebody has interest in them.

 

So, I'd have them sell but not to the point of starting back from square 1. 2 real centers and a healthy Miller this year and the Bruins wouldn't have been a lock to win the division.

[deluca67]

I didn't take her comment as referring to staying in the hunt for this season, maybe I misinterpreted it. I took it as more of a 'they don't have to take a multiseason step back to make the team better and get it to contender status and a full-out sell will make next year another rebuilding year.'

 

I want to see them selling and am fine w/ missing the playoffs this year (not happy about it, but have become resigned to it - and am actually looking forward to having a top 10 pick in the draft; 'unfortunately' it doesn't look like they'll have top 3). While anyone is expendable for the right price, I wouldn't be looking to move either goalie. McNabb will be with the big club next year, so Gragnani is on the way out. If Leopold needs to go as part of package to land someone they want, I'm fine with it but wouldn't be looking to move him just to free up a spot for McNabb. A year of having a 'settled' D should make this same bunch much stronger next year.

 

Forwards: Roy and Stafford can't pack their bags soon enough. I don't want to trade Vanek or Adam and would make sure I kept at least 1 of Ennis and Gerbe and I would also keep Gaustad unless they know he won't settle for a reasonable contract and/or they have a faceoff specialist in mind. I'd prefer to keep Pominville and would be sad to see Kaleta go just because of his local roots; but any other forward (including Kaleta) currently on the roster can go if somebody has interest in them.

 

So, I'd have them sell but not to the point of starting back from square 1. 2 real centers and a healthy Miller this year and the Bruins wouldn't have been a lock to win the division.

Unless the Sabres are willing to go back to 'square one", all they will be doing is continuing the Status Quo. This team needs to be stripped down and rebuilt by a different management team. That doesn't mean you can't keep a few players, they just need to make damn sure any players retained fit what this team wants to be about going forward.

 

The idea that team is a few players away is a continuation of fans lying to themselves. What the Sabres have put together isn't working, they are beyond a tweak here or there from being a Cup Contender.

[spndnchz]

Unless the Sabres are willing to go back to 'square one", all they will be doing is continuing the Status Quo. This team needs to be stripped down and rebuilt by a different management team. That doesn't mean you can't keep a few players, they just need to make damn sure any players retained fit what this team wants to be about going forward.

 

The idea that team is a few players away is a continuation of fans lying to themselves. What the Sabres have put together isn't working, they are beyond a tweak here or there from being a Cup Contender.

 

I'll respect your opinion but I think you are way off.

[deluca67]

I'll respect your opinion but I think you are way off.

I don't think I have ever been more right about anything, ever.

[LTS]

I don't think I have ever been more right about anything, ever.

 

Have you posted anywhere what your plan would be? I would love to read it. Going back to square one.. what does that mean? You want them to shed the entire roster and then pick up.... who? all new draft picks? all new free agents from somewhere else? All I get from you is that you hate the Sabres, you don't like the GM, the coach, the owner for keeping the GM and coach, the players, the pucks, the sticks, the gum under the seat in section 202, row 5, seat 5, and the guy who pours foamy beer at the concession stand.

 

Seriously.. if you've posted something positive I would love to read it. If you've posted your plan I want to know what you wrote. I'd use the search function but each time I type DeLuca67 and happy the board crashes...

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Unless the Sabres are willing to go back to 'square one", all they will be doing is continuing the Status Quo. This team needs to be stripped down and rebuilt by a different management team. That doesn't mean you can't keep a few players, they just need to make damn sure any players retained fit what this team wants to be about going forward.

 

The idea that team is a few players away is a continuation of fans lying to themselves. What the Sabres have put together isn't working, they are beyond a tweak here or there from being a Cup Contender.

 

While I tend to agree with you concerning a rebuild, but ...

 

Inky and others (myself included) have also mentioned that if the few players coming in were Lucic and a stud center the Sabres would be making great strides on the road to real contention.

[deluca67]

Have you posted anywhere what your plan would be? I would love to read it. Going back to square one.. what does that mean? You want them to shed the entire roster and then pick up.... who? all new draft picks? all new free agents from somewhere else? All I get from you is that you hate the Sabres, you don't like the GM, the coach, the owner for keeping the GM and coach, the players, the pucks, the sticks, the gum under the seat in section 202, row 5, seat 5, and the guy who pours foamy beer at the concession stand.

 

Seriously.. if you've posted something positive I would love to read it. If you've posted your plan I want to know what you wrote. I'd use the search function but each time I type DeLuca67 and happy the board crashes...

The majority of my posts are positive. It's your perspective that is negative. I consider the idea of changes that bring this franchise closer to winning a Stanley Cup extremely positive. It is when the idea involves "fan favorites" the post is considered "negative." Example, I was considered "negative" because I knew signing Drew Stafford in the off-season was a huge mistake. Since Stafford has been nice enough to prove me right and he has fallen out of favor with the "fans" any anti-Stafford post I were to write today would end up being a +10. People love honest opinions unless it's about "their guy."

 

Posters want to make out to be a personal agenda or about the poster when in fact it is nothing more than an observation based on performance.

 

Regier - 15 years worth of performance.

Ruff - 15 years worth if performance.

Miller - 433 games worth of performance.

Stafford - 368 games worth of performance.

 

That is more than enough data to formulate a strong opinion. Which I, and many others have. "It's not personal Sonny, it's strictly business." The "business" of wining a Stanley Cup.

 

While I tend to agree with you concerning a rebuild, but ...

 

Inky and others (myself included) have also mentioned that if the few players coming in were Lucic and a stud center the Sabres would be making great strides on the road to real contention.

Those options are not really realistic. Lucic is the last player the Bruins would allow to get away and the Sabres don't have the assets needed to pry away a stud center. There is no silver bullet or magic fix that will turn this team around.

 

The best plan, IMO, is go out and hire the best hockey guys they can find. hand them the keys to the franchise, the check book and a flamethrower. Let the new management team decide who they think they can salvage and do whatever they want with the rest. No sacred cows, no untouchables.

[Eleven]

Your last "plan" was to bust the bank on Kovy. Would that have made the Sabres a contender today? No.