French Collection

That was an exciting game. I am super stoked for Tampa to beat the Leafs for another first round loss. Tampa looks a lot shakier than in previous years to me. Guys like Hedman and Sergachev are making a lot of errors leading to turnovers and odd man rushes. Vasilevskiy looks human too. Game 7, the Leafs facing another elimination after a series lead. Drama.

My wife bugs me because she says I park as far as possible. I don’t mind the walk. I drive a full size truck, so it is easier to avoid tight spaces. I don’t get dinged out there. I usually drop her off at the door.

Bob is playing well tonight. Florida has him for 4 more years at $10M per season. Spencer Knight probably would like a starter’s job at some point and could take over in that time span. It will be tough to move Bob’s contract. Florida has 4 RHD in their top 6, Ekblad, Weegar, Montour and Gudas.

Good point on Nightengale, you want honest evaluation from people that know him well. Nazar has dropped lately, I wonder if this stuff has leaked.

150 lbs is pretty scrawny for a guy turning 20. I would think his Elite Prospects data has not been updated in a while. The N.Am. adjustment may be easier if you get him over ASAP.

Get him over ASAP, before things change. There is one piece for the pipeline folks.

My youngest is invited to an OHL development camp this weekend, should be fun.

Leafs have had a lot of time off, first round exits forever.

It was his third year playing Liiga and he should have improved over last year but his numbers were not as good. It sounds like his line mates and he did not mesh well or they were a step behind so there was not much support. There was some controversy about the team and he switched teams mid season but that did not improve his numbers. His only good showing was 2 games at the World Juniors vs his peers. He has all kinds of talent and blazing speed. I would put some weight on his interview, to try and get to the bottom of why he seemed to regress from being right up there with Wright to dropping into the teens on many lists.

mynhldraft Kemell and Gauthier Elite Prospects consolidated Lambert and Mintyukov Tankathon. Nazar and Howard

I would take that.

Teams need to be sold on a guy to give up a 2023 first round pick.

An analytics darling.

I hate to say it but the Leafs are actually hungry, they want it more. Tampa’s gotta dig deep next game, find the will to win.

McGroarty sounds like a much better hockey name than Geekie. Personally, I have limited viewings of the non OHL guys, except for World Juniors, U18 and Olympics. CHL top prospects game was one game so that is a small sample. Even the OHL modified their schedule this year so the East and West have not played each other at all. I have only seen Eastern Conference teams. I don’t consider myself an expert by any means but I read quite a bit about draft prospects and watch a few videos on favourites. My go to is Elite Prospects consolidated list, where they have about a dozen reputable mock drafts and use a player’s average ranking. I don’t know how to use fancy stats but I will take a guy’s word that so and so has better possession numbers than another guy. Long winded way of saying that my guess has a tiny fraction of the experts’ knowledge, and they guess wrong quite a bit.

I had a look at the top 100 playoff scorers to try and find some whose playoff stats are better than their career stats. I listed them by greatest difference between playoffs and regular season. Briere .94 playoffs vs .72 regular season Messier 1.25 vs 1.07 Linseman 1.06 vs .94 Couture .87 vs .75 Pronger .70 vs .60 Getzlaf .96 vs .88 Gilmour 1.03 vs .96 Kurri 1.17 vs 1.12 Krejci .80 vs .76 Perreault 1.14 vs 1.11 Toews .87 vs .84 Kucherov 1.13 vs 1.10 Fedorov .96 vs .94 Beliveau 1.09 vs 1.08

Most players stats are worse in the tighter checking playoffs but there are some great playoff performers who continue at the same level or better their numbers in a Conn Smythe consideration post season. None of these Leafs have raised their games in the playoffs. Tavares .94 ppg career regular season, .78 ppg career playoffs, .58 ppg with Leafs. Nylander .78 ppg regular season, .69 playoffs. Marner 1.07 ppg regular season, .86 playoffs Matthews 1.12 ppg regular season, .83 playoffs.

Congratulations to the East Coast. I love the World Juniors and the Maritimes, I may try to get there.

My hope is for Jiricek to still be there at 9. I think he will be gone especially if the Sabres move down to 10-11. Nazar, Gauthier, Savoie and maybe Lambert could be the pick. All 4 of those guys can play C. I don’t like any RHD until around 20-30, Casey, Nelson, Luneau, Rinzel, Salomonsson, Havelid. Rinzel is an interesting case because he plays High School and Havelid was great at the U18. The Sabres may see one of these guys at 16 but I doubt it. Some of the 4 guys I listed at 9 could still be around at 16. Mesar, Kasper, McGroarty and Ostlund are C options at 16. The Florida pick should provide an opportunity at a RHD that I listed above. Lamoureux, Chesley and Kyrou are 3 more in the 30-45 range. If the Sabres have a RHD picked already, I would look at Beck, Kulich as C with that pick. At 41 take BPA on their board, unless they still have not taken a RHD. I want one goalie picked in the 5th-7th round.

I mentioned I watched a game in Rouyn in the prospect thread. Walking around the old barn I saw this old team photo of the Montreal Junior Canadiens from 1967-68. I’ve seen a few of their 69-70 team with Perreault and Martin but this older one was new to me. Perreault at 17 or 18 in the middle back row.

Yeah, it is pretty far from the rest of the league other than Val D’Or, which is one hour east. They have a 20 hour drive to play Cape Breton, they must bundle some games with Halifax, Moncton, Charlottetown and Saint John. Rouyn must have great scouts/recruiters as they have won two Memorial Cups in the last 10 years. Small old barn built in 1951. Glencore is the arena sponsor but it still has Dave Keon centre as part of the name. Sault Ste Marie in the OHL is more than 3 hours from their nearest team, Sudbury, so there is plenty of windshield time for them as well. In the WHL, Winnipeg to Victoria is more than a 24 hour drive. Geography is definitely a challenge.

Sabres need Cs, RHDs and another goalie prospect. Centres can move to the wing if the pipeline gets full. Goalies are not highly ranked this year so a late round pick could be used and let the kid develop.

I was in Rouyn-Noranda last night and watched Sabres prospect Olivier Nadeau of Shawinigan. He needs to improve his skating to make the NHL. Pure and simple, that is what I saw. It is something that can be worked on so I won’t rule him out. On the plus side, he is a good sized forward who knows his role. His main function is the net front presence on the PP. He stands his ground and does well screening the goalie, tipping pucks and banging at rebounds. He works well in the corners, shielding the puck and playing the cycle. He is not fast but hustled hard on the back check to break up some plays to trailers. He wears an A and looked like a leader out there. One more year of junior hockey to get him faster will benefit him. Cataracts won and move on to the next round.

Jack Quinn with a pair tonight to get back on track and to stick the first nail in Utica’s coffin. Is Mule playing?

Leafs spanked by Lightning. Nylander is the guy I dislike the most on the Leafs. He plays soft, stays on the perimeter and wants to make the pretty dangles without messing up his hair. He is not built for the playoffs. He is, however, 6’0 202 lbs. This clip from last night shows how he treats the corners like a cobra.