The offseason so far - Are the Sabres better?

[thewookie1]

Better, by a small margin yes.

I read somewhere our project points went from 83.0 to 83.2 for the season. Which is somewhat surprising based on the loss of Peterka but I guess the better defensive metrics we have now help us immensely.

[PerreaultForever]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

You shouldn’t post lies.

Best goals for % by NHL pairings, minimum 500 minutes:

• 1 Dahlin Byram 70%
• 2 McDonagh Cernak 63.8%
• 3 McCabe Tanev 63.3%
• 4 Samberg Pionk 63.2%
• 5 Toews Makar 61.4%

How can any defence pairing that helped outscore the opposition 35 to 15 at even strength on the Buffalo Sabres be called “wasn’t that good” by anyone with a straight face?

Its like saying Tage Thompson is not a very good goal scorer, or Josh Norris never gets hurt.

Why are you evaluating defensemen by their offensive stats? 

[Archie Lee]

18 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Why are you evaluating defensemen by their offensive stats? 

Isn't this a combination of the two? Even strength they were on the ice together for 35 goals for (offense) and 15 goals against (defense).  70% of the goals scored when Dahlin and Byram were on the ice together at even strength, were Sabre goals.  That's really, really good. 

Also, why are you not including offensive stats in your evaluation of D-men?

Edited 18 hours ago by Archie Lee

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

Why are you evaluating defensemen by their offensive stats? 

@Archie Lee’s got it.

Im evaluating them by goals for and against, you know the one stat that really matters in hockey?

Why aren’t you?

[7+6=13]

4 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Well every team is better after the draft because everybody adds prospects and bad teams add higher rated ones. Mrtka is 3-5 years away from making the Sabres any better on ice. The opening night roster as is, is not good enough to make the playoffs. 

The analogy that you missed is we're better with Byram today because he's on our team.

[PerreaultForever]

2 hours ago, Archie Lee said:

Isn't this a combination of the two? Even strength they were on the ice together for 35 goals for (offense) and 15 goals against (defense).  70% of the goals scored when Dahlin and Byram were on the ice together at even strength, were Sabre goals.  That's really, really good. 

Also, why are you not including offensive stats in your evaluation of D-men?

I'd never question Dahlin, or even Byram's offensive ability. Power has good offensive ability as well. I, however, want to keep the puck out of our own net. 

This is the time of year (every year) where the optimists try to convince me that the Sabres have lots of talent and players are really good and the stats say this or that and yet, they miss the playoffs the following season. Go figure. 

Our defense was not good. Still isn't good enough. and we are not a playoff team. 

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

@Archie Lee’s got it.

Im evaluating them by goals for and against, you know the one stat that really matters in hockey?

Why aren’t you?

When it comes to defensemen I am only interested in how they help keep the puck out of our net. The stats are very misleading. 

1 hour ago, 7+6=13 said:

The analogy that you missed is we're better with Byram today because he's on our team.

But we still have Samuelsson. 

[Archie Lee]

5 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I'd never question Dahlin, or even Byram's offensive ability. Power has good offensive ability as well. I, however, want to keep the puck out of our own net. 

This is the time of year (every year) where the optimists try to convince me that the Sabres have lots of talent and players are really good and the stats say this or that and yet, they miss the playoffs the following season. Go figure. 

Our defense was not good. Still isn't good enough. and we are not a playoff team. 

When it comes to defensemen I am only interested in how they help keep the puck out of our net. The stats are very misleading. 

But we still have Samuelsson. 

I’m not trying to convince you of anything. But the Sabres being bad in general doesn’t mean the Dahlin/Byram pairing was bad. Last year, the pairing was very good. That’s all. 

[PromoTheRobot]

Where we are as of June 30. I guess Reimer is officially a Sabre until tomorrow.

 

Edited 8 hours ago by PromoTheRobot

[dudacek]

7 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

. The stats are very misleading. 

 

Good point, it's probably the facts that are wrong in this discussion. 

[7+6=13]

7 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I'd never question Dahlin, or even Byram's offensive ability. Power has good offensive ability as well. I, however, want to keep the puck out of our own net. 

But we still have Samuelsson. 

Seriously?  I can't even get you to admit Byram is in the team.

[DarthEbriate]

7 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

When it comes to defensemen I am only interested in how they help keep the puck out of our net. The stats are very misleading. 

In the case of Byram-Dahlin, they keep the puck out by possessing the puck and threatening the opposition to back off because when either of them gets the puck they can immediately begin the transition to offense.

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/pairings.php?fromseason=20242025&thruseason=20242025&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=ALL&loc=B&toi=500&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410  Then, sort by GF%. They are better than the other top pairs in the league with big minutes:   Hedman-Moser, Samberg-Pionk, McDonagh-Cernak, their +20 goal differential is the same as Toews-Makar.   In most cases, the B-D pair gives up fewer goals in more minutes than any of those, and in times they do give up more goals, they scored many more, too. What's odd is Ruff didn't play them together more.

Just specific to bad defense, it's not just the D-corps -- we're also underselling the importance of good goaltending (Toews-Makar gave up a ton of goals early in the season because of crap goalies) and the commitment of the forwards to getting the puck out of their own zone.

2 minutes ago, 7+6=13 said:

Seriously?  I can't even get you to admit Byram is in the team.

Give it 12 hours... he may not be. (At this point, I hope they keep him, because I think removing him weakens their blue line and brings Bryson that much closer to the daily lineup.)

[Archie Lee]

6 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

In the case of Byram-Dahlin, they keep the puck out by possessing the puck and threatening the opposition to back off because when either of them gets the puck they can immediately begin the transition to offense.

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/pairings.php?fromseason=20242025&thruseason=20242025&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=ALL&loc=B&toi=500&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410  Then, sort by GF%. They are better than the other top pairs in the league with big minutes:   Hedman-Moser, Samberg-Pionk, McDonagh-Cernak, their +20 goal differential is the same as Toews-Makar.   In most cases, the B-D pair gives up fewer goals in more minutes than any of those, and in times they do give up more goals, they scored many more, too. What's odd is Ruff didn't play them together more.

Just specific to bad defense, it's not just the D-corps -- we're also underselling the importance of good goaltending (Toews-Makar gave up a ton of goals early in the season because of crap goalies) and the commitment of the forwards to getting the puck out of their own zone.

Give it 12 hours... he may not be. (At this point, I hope they keep him, because I think removing him weakens their blue line and brings Bryson that much closer to the daily lineup.)

Great post.

It is an argument for re-signing Byram.  Also, if we do trade Byram, it is an argument to just pair Power with Dahlin, as I think their results could be similar.  It's ok to just put your two best D-men together and let them play 25 minutes a game.  Maybe Samuelsson and Kesselring would work together as a 2nd pair. 

 

[JP51]

7 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

Great post.

It is an argument for re-signing Byram.  Also, if we do trade Byram, it is an argument to just pair Power with Dahlin, as I think their results could be similar.  It's ok to just put your two best D-men together and let them play 25 minutes a game.  Maybe Samuelsson and Kesselring would work together as a 2nd pair. 

 

I am not against resigning Byram... I am not sure we get a return that makes us better... if we do, then certainly trade him...  I think free agency and who we may or may not sign gonna tell the tale here... 

[CallawaySabres]

At bare minimum, we still need an absolute stud on the top 6 and a legitimate #1 goalie. That would at least get us into contention for the 8 spot. To crack the top 3 in the division is still years away. 

[Pimlach]

What thread is getting messy and off track.  It is way to early in the off season to think we improved this team.  

Post season needs:  Goalie, Top 4 RDH,  2 top 6 forwards (with Peterka gone), better defensive depth, more physical players that play a 2 way game.  

Are we better than last year here today on June 30?   NFW.  

They lost Peterka and Clifton, they re-signed Quinn.  

They picked up Kesserling (he will slot into a top 4 RHD), Doan (maybe a 3rd line player, maybe not), and Timmins (a 3rd pair D in place of Clifton and for less $$). 

We used 9OA for a future player who is 3 years away.   

Are we better?  

Not yet.  Not enough to matter anyway.     

We are still questionable at center just like last year plus we have not replaced Peterka yet, and the goalies are UPL and Levi.   

There are a lot of questions:

• Will we get big years out of Thompson, Dahlin, Norris, and Tuch? 
• Production:   Will Quinn replace Peterka's production?  Will Benson improve offensively?   Will Zucker and McLoed score 20 each again? 
• Will this new defense be better?    Will Byram be moved or re-signed?   
• Will UPL ever be a top caliber NHL starting goalie?  Is Levi ready to make a big jump?  

We have the same coaching staff in place, the only change was strength and conditioning.  

I like some of the players that they brought in but all are young and none are big impact players.   

I am skeptical.  Just based on the goaltending alone this is not a playoff team.  

 

 

[CTJoe]

19 minutes ago, CallawaySabres said:

At bare minimum, we still need an absolute stud on the top 6 and a legitimate #1 goalie. That would at least get us into contention for the 8 spot. To crack the top 3 in the division is still years away. 

Get Jake Allen and Ehlers.  Allen would cost $5million, Ehlers $7.5million - we can afford both while keeping Byram but it would be tight. Would love to dump Samuelsson somehow

[CallawaySabres]

17 minutes ago, CTJoe said:

Get Jake Allen and Ehlers.  Allen would cost $5million, Ehlers $7.5million - we can afford both while keeping Byram but it would be tight. Would love to dump Samuelsson somehow

This would be enough to allow me to think they MAY have a chance to fight for 8th. I could not care less about being a contender because they are still so far away from being on that level.

Can they please just give the fans a season where it's not over by Christmas? It's unreal how many meaningless games have been played over the last 14 years, totally unreal. 

[Taro T]

59 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

In the case of Byram-Dahlin, they keep the puck out by possessing the puck and threatening the opposition to back off because when either of them gets the puck they can immediately begin the transition to offense.

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/pairings.php?fromseason=20242025&thruseason=20242025&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=ALL&loc=B&toi=500&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410  Then, sort by GF%. They are better than the other top pairs in the league with big minutes:   Hedman-Moser, Samberg-Pionk, McDonagh-Cernak, their +20 goal differential is the same as Toews-Makar.   In most cases, the B-D pair gives up fewer goals in more minutes than any of those, and in times they do give up more goals, they scored many more, too. What's odd is Ruff didn't play them together more.

Just specific to bad defense, it's not just the D-corps -- we're also underselling the importance of good goaltending (Toews-Makar gave up a ton of goals early in the season because of crap goalies) and the commitment of the forwards to getting the puck out of their own zone.

Give it 12 hours... he may not be. (At this point, I hope they keep him, because I think removing him weakens their blue line and brings Bryson that much closer to the daily lineup.)

After some early season experimentation, Ruff had Dahlin and Byram together for almost the entire time the Sabres had a realistic chance of making the playoffs.  Once it got to be, well, if everybody else falters (pretty much happened) AND Buffalo runs the table (not even close), then Ruff went back to Dahlin-Samuelsson Byram-???.  Expect that was for 2 reasons, 1 Ruff (probably heavily influenced by the staff's opinion) had expected Muel-Dahlin would work as a pairing and he wanted to see if it would once both had been exposed to what he was asking of him; which would free up Byram to

either run a lesser pairing (Power's and Byram's pairs seemed to be 2A & 2B down the stretch with neither really getting THE 2nd pairing matchups, at least from the eye test) giving the Sabres a chance to create mismatches with the other team's lesser lines and/or to decide how easily they could overcome Byram's departure using him to either improve the F's or the goaltending.

Am HOPING that's a big part of why they let Kulich play 1C pretty much the entire last month of the season even though teams with really good 1st lines were eating him alive.  Explains Benson getting some top line work too as the last month was. or seemed to be,- let's see what we have while not getting blown out on a nightly basis time.

[LGR4GM]

4 minutes ago, Taro T said:

After some early season experimentation, Ruff had Dahlin and Byram together for almost the entire time the Sabres had a realistic chance of making the playoffs.  Once it got to be, well, if everybody else falters (pretty much happened) AND Buffalo runs the table (not even close), then Ruff went back to Dahlin-Samuelsson Byram-???.  Expect that was for 2 reasons, 1 Ruff (probably heavily influenced by the staff's opinion) had expected Muel-Dahlin would work as a pairing and he wanted to see if it would once both had been exposed to what he was asking of him; which would free up Byram to

either run a lesser pairing (Power's and Byram's pairs seemed to be 2A & 2B down the stretch with neither really getting THE 2nd pairing matchups, at least from the eye test) giving the Sabres a chance to create mismatches with the other team's lesser lines and/or to decide how easily they could overcome Byram's departure using him to either improve the F's or the goaltending.

Am HOPING that's a big part of why they let Kulich play 1C pretty much the entire last month of the season even though teams with really good 1st lines were eating him alive.  Explains Benson getting some top line work too as the last month was. or seemed to be,- let's see what we have while not getting blown out on a nightly basis time.

I wonder if Benson got top line work because Ruff got fed up with Peterka's d-zone play. 

[Taro T]

58 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

Great post.

It is an argument for re-signing Byram.  Also, if we do trade Byram, it is an argument to just pair Power with Dahlin, as I think their results could be similar.  It's ok to just put your two best D-men together and let them play 25 minutes a game.  Maybe Samuelsson and Kesselring would work together as a 2nd pair. 

 

Really don't like the idea of having Power-Dahlin pencilled in as the top pairing this season.   Power is coming off a major injury (the 1st of his career) and very likely could have rust to get out of his game.  Playing top line minutes isn't condusive to overcoming rust.

Also, Byram, while not great in his own end, was significantly better there than Power is.  Plus, Power isn't going to create the quick breakout that Dahlin and Byram both can provide.  Expect that Dahlin will have to rein his game in a smidge if partnered with Power, which is the last thing you want to do.  Kind of like when Eichel was centering Skinner and Pominville he'd have to hang a bit higher in the offensive zone than was ideal because Pomms couldn't get back in transition and Skinner wouldn't.

[CTJoe]

10 minutes ago, CallawaySabres said:

This would be enough to allow me to think they MAY have a chance to fight for 8th. I could not care less about being a contender because they are still so far away from being on that level.

Can they please just give the fans a season where it's not over by Christmas? It's unreal how many meaningless games have been played over the last 14 years, totally unreal. 

This is how Sabre fans are when you give them anything....chills

 

 

[Taro T]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I wonder if Benson got top line work because Ruff got fed up with Peterka's d-zone play. 

VERY possilbe.  Both from punishing a guy for oftentimes not playing the "right way" and rewarding another one for ALWAYS playing the "right way."  (Well, at least as long as he wasn't giving refs the ability to call him for trips not a single other player on the ice would get called for.  Still amazed at how jealous the refs are that a little young player like Benson gets to live their dream and they never could.)

[Thorny]

53 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

What thread is getting messy and off track.  It is way to early in the off season to think we improved this team.  

Fall in line with this mostly. Again the question of whether we have improved is essentially besides the point if the answer isn’t blindingly obvious. All you have to do is place yourself in the mind of last June, 2024, and *be honest* with yourself. Remember what everyone was saying? It HAD to be their year. Last chance. 

we proceeded to be a last place team nearly the whole year

if someone had told they’d change no coaching, no management, forwards nothing, just worse, goalie nothing, and the add of a 4th d man - you’d literally laugh out loud 

If the sabres are somehow “improved”, I only think less of what we were 

we downgraded one of our best players and had a mediocre draft - that’s the extent of the offseason for the worst team in pro sports 

Edited 6 hours ago by Thorny

[7+6=13]

1 hour ago, DarthEbriate said:

 

Give it 12 hours... he may not be. (At this point, I hope they keep him, because I think removing him weakens their blue line and brings Bryson that much closer to the daily lineup.)

That's a real possibility.  If we trade him, I assume we'll get something back that will fill another need, so the hole would just change. Unless it's for another defenseman.

So for me it's either Bryson is closer or we're closer to a forward being in the top 6 we're not crazy about.

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Fall in line with this mostly. Again the question of whether we have improved is essentially besides the point if the answer isn’t blindingly obvious. All you have to do is place yourself in the mind of last June, 2024, and *be honest* with yourself. Remember what everyone was saying? It HAD to be their year. Last chance. 

we proceeded to be a last place team nearly the whole year

if someone had told they’d change no coaching, no management, forwards nothing, just worse, goalie nothing, and the add of a 4th d man - you’d literally laugh out loud 

If the sabres are somehow “improved”, I only think less of what we were 

Well, since last June we have seen what? 

Cozens (who was atrocious) out for Norris and Bernard-Docker (adv Norris)

Peterka (who was not great defensively) out for Kesselring and Doan (adv Peterka)

Clifton out for Timmins

So are we better without Cozens, Peterka, Clifton and bringing in Kesselring, Doan, Norris, Bernard-Docker, and Timmins