Summer 2025: NHL Offseason

[dudacek]

3 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

Ninety-four?

Ninety-four???

Wait, what?

Is this the JFresh model predicting playoffs for the Sabres this year?

Dammit man, give me context!

[DarthEbriate]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

Wait, what?

Is this the JFresh model predicting playoffs for the Sabres this year?

Dammit man, give me context!

@sabremike is the context. 

I look at the Sabres center spine vs the rest of the division. I think 92 is possible, however unlikely. They might find an opponent’s weakness and exploit it. 

[shrader]

Both wild cards having more points that 3rd place in the met would really be something. 

[Jorcus]

I was thinking about how balanced the Eastern Conference has become in the last year or two. In the 4 years since the covid season The top teams have become less dominant and less teams are getting more than 100 points in a season. Also the highest point scoring team has declined.

24-25  3 teams had more than 100 points.   Washington 111

23-24  5 teams had more than 100 points.    NYR    114

22-23  5 teams had more than 100 points.   BOS  135 

21-22   8  teams had more than 100 points.   Florida 122

 

There is a lot more balance in the East right now. I would be surprised to see a team get a 120 points. The key as always is to win your divisional games. 

 

 

[SwampD]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Wait, what?

Is this the JFresh model predicting playoffs for the Sabres this year?

Dammit man, give me context!

My guess is this.

 

[That Aud Smell]

Jfresh modeling the Sabres for the playoffs is almost more hope than I can bear.

I respect the guy's processes. And his modeling has been good in years past.

Good Christ -- may it be true.

[Ducky]

On 8/27/2025 at 9:54 AM, sabremike said:

 

Jets with 22 points fewer than last season? I see 101-102 points maybe, but 94?

Edited Friday at 12:31 AM by Ducky

[sabremike]

 

[PerreaultForever]

Do the Sabres have a captain's practice or anything similar? 

[JustOneParade]

If I understood correctly what I just read, the NHL has closed the LTIR salary cap circumvention for the playoffs starting this coming season. Teams must be salary cap compliant throughout the playoffs. Curious if the Golden Nights Stanley Cup odds just took a beating.

[Taro T]

3 hours ago, JustOneParade said:

If I understood correctly what I just read, the NHL has closed the LTIR salary cap circumvention for the playoffs starting this coming season. Teams must be salary cap compliant throughout the playoffs. Curious if the Golden Nights Stanley Cup odds just took a beating.

New CBA doesn't take effect until next September.  So, not expecting the playoff BF-LTIR and playoff cap modifications to take effect THIS season.

[shrader]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

New CBA doesn't take effect until next September.  So, not expecting the playoff BF-LTIR and playoff cap modifications to take effect THIS season.

They still haven’t released the info on any of the changes, have they? There should be a relatively long list of changes. You’d have to think it would be a bit too complicated to implement the playoff change in the in the middle of the CBA-year after running other different rules for the rest of the year. 

[sabremike]

 

[Taro T]

22 minutes ago, shrader said:

They still haven’t released the info on any of the changes, have they? There should be a relatively long list of changes. You’d have to think it would be a bit too complicated to implement the playoff change in the in the middle of the CBA-year after running other different rules for the rest of the year. 

They've released nearly all the changes (there's a few that you have to be an NHL player with access to the player's only portion of the NHLPA website to see; but most everything is available to the general public).

But the changes don't take effect until September 2026.  It has nothing to do with being complicated or not to implement.  They've agreed to operate under the 2021(?) MOU through next September.  And the next version of this CBA will run for at least 4 years and then it can be renewed annually if both sides want it to do so thereafter.

[LGR4GM]

2 hours ago, Taro T said:

New CBA doesn't take effect until next September.  So, not expecting the playoff BF-LTIR and playoff cap modifications to take effect THIS season.

 

43 minutes ago, Taro T said:

They've released nearly all the changes (there's a few that you have to be an NHL player with access to the player's only portion of the NHLPA website to see; but most everything is available to the general public).

But the changes don't take effect until September 2026.  It has nothing to do with being complicated or not to implement.  They've agreed to operate under the 2021(?) MOU through next September.  And the next version of this CBA will run for at least 4 years and then it can be renewed annually if both sides want it to do so thereafter.

 

 

[Taro T]

9 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

 

 

 

 

Eh, if both sides are good with flying by the seat of their pants, sure, why not.

But, as an FYI, in the latest MOU, they did agree to look at how the new BF-LTIR rules and particularly the post-season cap compliance rules as soon as the SCFs are done and that they both agreed to revise them after a 2nd playoffs if it was determined to be necessary.  So, as they're now implementing the rules before the MOU takes effect, don't be surprised to see tweaks to these next season (rather than in the 3rd year of the MOU taking effect).

And on a slightly different, but related, topic, do expect they're going to want to tweak the rules some in the fairly near future.  IMHO, the place where they're going to end up wanting (needing?) to tweak the rules isn't for BF-LTIR circumventing of the cap, but from trade deadline pickups that a team can add during the regular season because they'd banked cap space.  It doesn't appear there are any provisions for having some form of a cap "bank" in the playoffs.  So, a team that had accrued $4MM in cap space by the deadline and because of that could add a $12MM player (as at the trade deadline there's only ~1/3 of the season left to be played and that $12MM player would only be owed ~$4MM the rest of the way) with no issues during the regular season; well, when the playoffs come about, now if that guy is playing they'll be ~$3-4MM over the cap (the $6MM of cap that the new guy's salary puts them over the cap minus the ~$3MM in cap that players 21, 22, and 23 on the roster aren't counting towards the playoff roster).

So, the top teams won't have as much of an incentive to "gear up for a playoff surge" as if they do bring in a big name vet on the old assumption that their playoff roster can exceed the cap with impunity, they no longer can do that.  Presumably both sides are assuming that the extra cap spending on injury call ups and no longer counting players 21-23 against the playoff cap will allow those "late season vet acquisitions" to fit under the cap.  Not convinced that will necessarily be the case wthout benching some key 3rd liners that are so important in the playoffs.