What are our top tradeable assets really worth?

[GASabresIUFAN]

I was going through some of the trades in the 1st rd the last couple of years in an attempt to try and gauge what type of players, picks or prospects we might receive in trade for our top tradeable assets.  

For example:  What kind of asset can we expect in return for the 11th over pick?  I really couldn't find a straight up swap involving the top 12 pick for a specific player.  Most of the deals, like ours for Risto involve a package such as a 1st, a 2nd and a cap dump.  

What can we get for our top prospects like Rosen, Kulich or Östlund?

Do Joki, Krebs or even Ryan Johnson have any trade value? 

Edited June 7 by GASabresIUFAN

[PerreaultForever]

This is hard to answer. Teams rarely give up top 10ish draft choices. Late first rounders get dropped at deadlines by teams going all in but not a lot of first rounders get swapped at or near drafts. 

Krebs was a 4th line center on a bad hockey team. He's not worth much. Jokiharju harder to value. I'd think a high 2nd rounder? Johnson might spark some interest. Not for a first though. Rosen, Kulich and Östlund won't get you first rounders back imo but they might get you an NHL vet that can still play and you could get even better value if there's a team that wants to shed cap. They all have value in terms of upside and rookie contracts but none of them are sure thing NHLers at this point. 

If we want a top player we will have to package something up with more than one player/pick going out. 

[dudacek]

11 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I was going through some of the trades in the 1st rd the last couple of years in an attempt to try and gauge what type of players, picks or prospects we might receive in trade for our top tradeable assets.  

For example:  What kind of asset can we expect in return for the 11th over pick?  I really couldn't find a straight up swap involving the top 12 pick for a specific player.  Most of the deals, like ours for Risto involve a package such as a 1st, a 2nd and a cap dump.  

What can we get for our top prospects like Rosen, Kulich or Östlund?

Do Joki, Krebs or even Ryan Johnson have any trade value? 

Pick 11 has value. Recently:

7+ a 2nd ana 3rd got Alex Debrincat, who was then flipped for a lot less.

13 got Romanov and 98

13 and 66 got Dach

17ish and a mid-2nd got Hronek and a 4th

17ish and a 2ndish prospect got Bo Horvat.

 

I'd say given expected progression, Kulich's value has generally improved from his draft slot, Rosen's has slipped, and Östlund's is sorta the same, but each of those would be in the eye of the beholder.

Johnson isn't worth a late 1st any more. Krebs either. I would think most teams would certainly give up a 3rd for either though, some might give more.

I've always maintained Jokiharju is worth more than this board thinks, simply for what I see people paying for RHD at the deadline. Colin Miller was acquired for a 2nd and a 5th.  Andrej Sekera was flipped for a 2nd and Jamie McBain, than flipped again for pick #21.  Let me put it this way. You'd have beaten the odds if your 2nd-round pick plays 300 games in his career and Jokiharju has already done that before his 25th birthday.

Sam Reinhart went for a package similar to Östlund and 11. So did Kevin Fiala. Sam Bennett was acquired for 2 2nds.

The Sabres have the assets to improve their team.

Edited June 7 by dudacek

[thewookie1]

Trade Value is a fickle thing; teams vary on how they value your guys as well as their own. Anything from recency bias to a GM not liking Russians can cause major fluctuations in a value. A team's circumstances also play a part in rather vet players or draft picks might be more useful. 

Unlike a a draft pick which has a set hierarchy, players can be valued radically different from team to team.

For instance, in theory, a team a game breaking center like Boston would value a Savoie more than a deep center team like Vegas but that requires you to eliminate salary and stylistic evaluations. 

Not to mention, a player's true value may never be truly amounted too. Let's say Connor McDavid is worth exactly 8 1sts; now if you were to throw that offer out to all 31 other teams how many would bite? I'd imagine a good number would but many still wouldn't due to money or his contract length being a concern. But what happens if a team offers 4 1sts in 2025 and 4 1sts in 2032 (somehow) The value should theoretically be the same as a team giving 8 straight 1sts but the Oilers may have a different angle. Both are 8 1sts but the 4-4 choice gives them quicker access to half the bounty. Now what happens if a 3rd team offers 5 1sts in 2025? Value wise it wouldn't be 8 1sts but would 5 1sts in an immediate setting. So evaluations are a crapshoot.

[JohnC]

6 hours ago, dudacek said:

Pick 11 has value. Recently:

7+ a 2nd ana 3rd got Alex Debrincat, who was then flipped for a lot less.

13 got Romanov and 98

13 and 66 got Dach

17ish and a mid-2nd got Hronek and a 4th

17ish and a 2ndish prospect got Bo Horvat.

 

I'd say given expected progression, Kulich's value has generally improved from his draft slot, Rosen's has slipped, and Östlund's is sorta the same, but each of those would be in the eye of the beholder.

Johnson isn't worth a late 1st any more. Krebs either. I would think most teams would certainly give up a 3rd for either though, some might give more.

I've always maintained Jokiharju is worth more than this board thinks, simply for what I see people paying for RHD at the deadline. Colin Miller was acquired for a 2nd and a 5th.  Andrej Sekera was flipped for a 2nd and Jamie McBain, than flipped again for pick #21.  Let me put it this way. You'd have beaten the odds if your 2nd-round pick plays 300 games in his career and Jokiharju has already done that before his 25th birthday.

Sam Reinhart went for a package similar to Östlund and 11. So did Kevin Fiala. Sam Bennett was acquired for 2 2nds.

The Sabres have the assets to improve their team.

Would our first pick, Ryan Johnson and Kulich get you a Sam Bennett if Florida was forced to trade Bennett due to cap considerations? 

[GASabresIUFAN]

13 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Would our first pick, Ryan Johnson and Kulich get you a Sam Bennett if Florida was forced to trade Bennett due to cap considerations? 

Florida acquired Bennett when still as RFA for a 2nd and a former 2nd rd prospect.

While he might be a better 2 way player today, an acquiring team only gets one year and no control.  

This is why I created this thread.  John wants to throw in the kitchen sink to get Bennett, while I see considerably less value.  I might do our 2nd and Rosen, but nothing more for a rental. 

My fear is Adams is desperate to win this season.  Other GMs will smell the blood in the water and demand higher prices from Adams than they would from others.  We have seen this in the past with the proposed Chychrun trade.  Adams was correct to say no then, but will he be so disciplined now with his job on the line? 

Edited June 7 by GASabresIUFAN

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Florida acquired Bennett when still as RFA for a 2nd and a former 2nd rd prospect.

While he might be a better 2 way player today, an acquiring team only gets one year and no control.  

This is why I created this thread.  John wants to throw in the kitchen sink to get Bennett, while I see considerably less value.  I might do our 2nd and Rosen, but nothing more for a rental. 

My fear is Adams is desperate to win this season.  Other GMs will smell the blood in the water and demand higher prices from Adams than they would from others.  We have seen this in the past with the proposed Chychrun trade.  Adams was correct to say no then, but will he be so disciplined now with his job on the line? 

I have argued as much as anyone that the GM shouldn't act out of desperation and overpay for a player. But let's assess the value of what we are giving up in a proposed Bennett trade or a similar type of trade. Is there room for Kulich on the roster? Or even if there is in the near future, will we still have some other prospect options to take his place? I think so.  If Ryan Johnson is dealt how much better is he than Joki? The 11th pick might have value but the return won't be tangible until a few years down the road. I don't want to over-sell the value of Bennett, but he is the type of player that this roster needs. He's tough and gritty, and can score at a reasonable level. 

The Sabres do have talent on the roster. However, it needs to be reshaped, especially from the bottom up. Bennett or someone else needs to be added to this incomplete roster. If a player like him can be added with a lesser price, I'm all for it. 

Edited June 7 by JohnC

[Pimlach]

They need to bring in players that make an immediate impact and they need to do it now. 

What each prospect is worth individually is not the most important factor. 

The Sabres have a lot of prospects and the longer they keep them the more the other teams can scout them, often diminishing their value from the position they were drafted at.  

Adams should be packaging players, prospects, and picks for proven NHL players with tire on the tread.   They have been doing the opposite long enough.  

If they have to theoretically "overpay" so what, all of these forward prospects cannot be on the team at one time anyway.   

[PASabreFan]

Dahlin should bring a nice haul.

[inkman]

12 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I was going through some of the trades in the 1st rd the last couple of years in an attempt to try and gauge what type of players, picks or prospects we might receive in trade for our top tradeable assets.  

For example:  What kind of asset can we expect in return for the 11th over pick?  I really couldn't find a straight up swap involving the top 12 pick for a specific player.  Most of the deals, like ours for Risto involve a package such as a 1st, a 2nd and a cap dump.  

What can we get for our top prospects like Rosen, Kulich or Östlund?

Do Joki, Krebs or even Ryan Johnson have any trade value? 

The Sabres best assets are on the roster.  Let’s not be afraid to trade them.  By them I mean anyone. 

[inkman]

56 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

They need to bring in players that make an immediate impact and they need to do it now. 

What each prospect is worth individually is not the most important factor. 

The Sabres have a lot of prospects and the longer they keep them the more the other teams can scout them, often diminishing their value from the position they were drafted at.  

Adams should be packaging players, prospects, and picks for proven NHL players with tire on the tread.   They have been doing the opposite long enough.  

If they have to theoretically "overpay" so what, all of these forward prospects cannot be on the team at one time anyway.   

It’s the off-season.  Talking prospect value isn’t an obscene exercise.  I have high hopes and low expectations in regards to off-season acquisitions.  Hopefully Adams does something to move the needle.  

[OverPowerYou]

All of them. I was in my early 20’s just like most of this current Sabres team the last time they made the playoffs. 

Edited June 7 by OverPowerYou

[LGR4GM]

47 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Dahlin should bring a nice haul.

Ah yes, Buffalo and their fans favorite activity. Waiting until a player is the best on the team and then shipping them off for some picks and prospects.

[GASabresIUFAN]

44 minutes ago, inkman said:

The Sabres best assets are on the roster.  Let’s not be afraid to trade them.  By them I mean anyone. 

Certainly Fla’s GM wasn’t afraid when he acquired Tkachuk for Huberdeau and Weeger.  Would Ottawa trade us Brady?  

[inkman]

41 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Ah yes, Buffalo and their fans favorite activity. Waiting until a player is the best on the team and then shipping them off for some picks and prospects.

Nope actual good NHL players are the desire now.  And no one likes Dahlin…for whatever reason.  

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, PASabreFan said:

Dahlin should bring a nice haul.

Absolutely not! No need to elaborate because it is borderline insane. 

[LGR4GM]

6 minutes ago, inkman said:

Nope actual good NHL players are the desire now.  And no one likes Dahlin…for whatever reason.  

Probably because he's the best player on the Sabres, with good size, great skill, and a physical element that would do well in the playoffs. We should totally trade that out, I mean it would be great. I would know who to bet my house on to win a cup next year aka the ROR, Eichel, and potentially Reinhart special. 

[Pimlach]

1 hour ago, inkman said:

It’s the off-season.  Talking prospect value isn’t an obscene exercise.  I have high hopes and low expectations in regards to off-season acquisitions.  Hopefully Adams does something to move the needle.  

I think you missed my point.  Talking about prospect value is certainly fine.  My point is trying to figure out what each minor league or junior league prospect is worth singularly is kind of a waste of time because we won't get a proven NHL player from trading just Rosen, or just Kulich.   

I think the road ahead is probably more likely to require packaging a combination of player/prospect/pick for top NHL talent.  Like when we traded Eichel and Reinhart and we got multiple pieces back.  This time we trade trade multiple pieces for a known NHL commodity.  

[JoeSchmoe]

Realistically, Östlund and Rosen will never have much impact in the NHL. I know this, I'd expect NHL GM's to know them as well.

Savoie and Kulich are more likely to break into the league on a more meaningful basis, and may be able to get you back an NHL ready player on a cap-stressed team. I'd be shopping them hard.

[PASabreFan]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Ah yes, Buffalo and their fans favorite activity. Waiting until a player is the best on the team and then shipping them off for some picks and prospects.

This is a straw man. Like ink said, good haul means good NHL players in return. See trading Turgeon for reference.

This franchise has literally nothing to lose.

[PASabreFan]

30 minutes ago, inkman said:

Nope actual good NHL players are the desire now.  And no one likes Dahlin…for whatever reason.  

Dahlin is the cat that Jerry and Elaine were referencing when one of them said something like, "Cats? I don't get it. What do they do?"

[LGR4GM]

32 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

This is a straw man. Like ink said, good haul means good NHL players in return. See trading Turgeon for reference.

This franchise has literally nothing to lose.

No it's literally a trade the Sabres did with Eichel. 

Dahlin for Tuch, 1st rounder, Krebs and a 2nd. Who says no?

[PerreaultForever]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Certainly Fla’s GM wasn’t afraid when he acquired Tkachuk for Huberdeau and Weeger.  Would Ottawa trade us Brady?  

You have to remember Calgary had no choice. Tkachuk was going to walk at the end of his contract. Calgary did what they thought was the best they could get (and in that they over valued Huberdeau) but in no way were they happy or did they actually want to trade Tkachuk. 

That was us with Eichel and probably with Reinhart but there's nobody on the roster now that wants out right now as far as we know. We have roster players teams would want, but we won't get better just rearranging deck chairs. We might be able to shed a D man, but really, we do not have depth at any position. If we want to make a move it'll have to include picks and prospects.

The Eichel trade is the comparable for a top line player. It's roughly the equivalent of the 4 firsts idea. Those are low firsts and even 2nds, so if you offer up high firsts or potentially high firsts (if teams gamble that we will still suck anyway) you should be able to land a 3C for much less. 

You want Pierre Luc Dubois (I don't) you could probably get him cheap as L.A. would love to be free of him. There may be others like that but if you want someone worth having it'll cost and we won't get it for shopping fringe assets people here don't even want. A guy like Rosen isn't going to get you anything more than another guy like Rosen, maybe in a different position. 

[Thorny]

7 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

My HOPE is Adams is desperate to win this season.

Ftfy

“Teams will hold his toes to the fire on our assets because we are desperate” is a myth. Resoundingly so. A team after our assets isn’t just competing with Adams at the negotiating table they are doing battle with their actual competition - the other teams after our assets. There’s no good lowballing if all you end up with is your rival acquiring said piece 

If we trade good assets, there will be buyers and the price will reflect 

If we try to trade the pieces we don’t want for things we do, we’ll mysteriously find we’ve been “lowballed” out of “desperation”

Edited June 7 by Thorny

[Thorny]

2 hours ago, inkman said:

Nope actual good NHL players are the desire now.  And no one likes Dahlin…for whatever reason.  

My favourite player. 

It’ll be funny when he gets traded and we can do the whole Eichel thing again with me staunchly defending Dahlin 

I apologize in advance 

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Probably because he's the best player on the Sabres, with good size, great skill, and a physical element that would do well in the playoffs. We should totally trade that out, I mean it would be great. I would know who to bet my house on to win a cup next year aka the ROR, Eichel, and potentially Reinhart special. 

One of the most prevailing myths in the league that will probably never go away is the idea a star player can carry a team. If you suck, your star player will be disliked, that’s sort of just the way 

Edited June 7 by Thorny