Kevyn and Don, should we really expect more after four years?

[dudacek]

While my previous post is my direct answer to @tom webster's thread-starting question, I think I also need to answer his subtext: and that is not whether this season is a failure, but whether this rebuild and its architects are a failure.

And my answer to that is: not yet, but crunch time is arriving.

Adams made no secret of the fact that his plan was to collect a critical mass of young talent, then have it learn and grow together into a team that could contend for a decade. Our cynics rolled their eyes at that as just a way of making his leash as long as possible. But I believe it is a legitimate path to success and one I think works if you are right on your talent evaluations.

Because Jeff Skinner is an outlier.

Skinner made the NHL at 18, scored 30 goals and 65 points, played crappy defence and got under a lot of people’s skins. He’s been that player for most of his 14 seasons and he remains that player today.

But — like Webster’s opening post implies — most NHL players and youthful rebuilds don’t work that way. Players arrive unfinished and spend a few years learning how they can best succeed at NHL hockey. They don’t establish a level and an identity until sometime into their 3rd or 4th season, after they have 200 or 300 games under their belts.

Consider these Sabres:

• Tuch broke out in season 6, after 305 games
• Dahlin broke out in season 5 after 277 games
• Thompson broke out in season 5 (he missed all of season 3 due to injury) after 145 games
• Mittelstadt broke out in season 5 after 195 games

The first 3 are now young veterans and key members of Adams handpicked core. And as much as many of you hate this, the rest of his “blinding light brigade” is still cooking:

• Cozens 270 games, about to enter season 5  (and probably broke out in season 3 after 120 games)
• Krebs 205, about to enter season 3
• Byram 155, about to enter season 4
• Power 153, about to enter season 3
• Peterka 151, about to enter season 3
• Samuelsson 150, about to enter season 3
• Quinn 94, about to enter season 3
• Luukkonen 92, about to enter season 3
• Benson 61, about to enter season 2
• Levi 28, about to enter season 2

This season failed because that group was not good enough yet and because Adams and Granato didn’t give them the support they needed. And they need to make sure they don’t repeat the latter mistake this summer. But - like it or not -  their big picture plan succeeds or fails on how many of those young players take a step and their windows are just starting to open.

Many of you will see it differently, but I see the first 2 seasons of the Adams rebuild as successful in terms of the path he was walking. Season 3 has been a failure, but I have no interest in firing him at this point. Growth is never smooth. He gets a chance to react and adjust to this year.

Granato, I like and want to see succeed, but this is pro sports. I make the call on his future based on player interviews and his plans for revamping his staff and fixing the offence. If I decide to retain him, it’s on a short leash.

But chucking the plan at this juncture seems premature to me.

Edited March 27 by dudacek

[Thorny]

3 hours ago, dudacek said:

While my previous post is my direct answer to @tom webster's thread-starting question, I think I also need to answer his subtext: and that is not whether this season is a failure, but whether this rebuild and its architects are a failure.

And my answer to that is: not yet, but crunch time is arriving.

Adams made no secret of the fact that his plan was to collect a critical mass of young talent, then have it learn and grow together into a team that could contend for a decade. Our cynics rolled their eyes at that as just a way of making his leash as long as possible. But I believe it is a legitimate path to success and one I think works if you are right on your talent evaluations.

Because Jeff Skinner is an outlier.

Skinner made the NHL at 18, scored 30 goals and 65 points, played crappy defence and got under a lot of people’s skins. He’s been that player for most of his 14 seasons and he remains that player today.

But — like Webster’s opening post implies — most NHL players and youthful rebuilds don’t work that way. Players arrive unfinished and spend a few years learning how they can best succeed at NHL hockey. They don’t establish a level and an identity until sometime into their 3rd or 4th season, after they have 200 or 300 games under their belts.

Consider these Sabres:

• Tuch broke out in season 6, after 305 games
• Dahlin broke out in season 5 after 277 games
• Thompson broke out in season 5 (he missed all of season 3 due to injury) after 145 games
• Mittelstadt broke out in season 5 after 195 games

The first 3 are now young veterans and key members of Adams handpicked core. And as much as many of you hate this, the rest of his “blinding light brigade” is still cooking:

• Cozens 270 games, about to enter season 5  (and probably broke out in season 3 after 120 games)
• Krebs 205, about to enter season 3
• Byram 155, about to enter season 4
• Power 153, about to enter season 3
• Peterka 151, about to enter season 3
• Samuelsson 150, about to enter season 3
• Quinn 94, about to enter season 3
• Luukkonen 92, about to enter season 3
• Benson 61, about to enter season 2
• Levi 28, about to enter season 2

This season failed because that group was not good enough yet and because Adams and Granato didn’t give them the support they needed. And they need to make sure they don’t repeat the latter mistake this summer. But - like it or not -  their big picture plan succeeds or fails on how many of those young players take a step and their windows are just starting to open.

Many of you will see it differently, but I see the first 2 seasons of the Adams rebuild as successful in terms of the path he was walking. Season 3 has been a failure, but I have no interest in firing him at this point. Growth is never smooth. He gets a chance to react and adjust to this year.

Granato, I like and want to see succeed, but this is pro sports. I make the call on his future based on player interviews and his plans for revamping his staff and fixing the offence. If I decide to retain him, it’s on a short leash.

But chucking the plan at this juncture seems premature to me.

Good post. Agree almost totally. One thing - 

It’s professional sports: for me, this is Adams’ 4th year as GM because, well, it’s his 4th year as GM. Framing only a portion of it as “his plan” doesn’t supersede the fact he failed to institute said “plan” a season earlier. What this really was was the second plan he’s generally managed, his plan or another’s. Now, I can factor that (proportionally) into my evaluation of him as a GM while still measuring the success of each individual year of this plan against what’s it’s expected to achieve internally and intrinsically. 

It really is a situation deserving of nuance and it’s both: his performance year 1 is both relevant to a fair analysis of his entire body of work as GM and also, can be separate from the analysis of how the current plan is going.

How can we give him a ton of credit for the team improving in 21-22 but ignore and leave out the fact it was improving FROM the low water mark *he himself* set the year previous? That wouldn’t be fair . Don’t count it in an analysis of the current plan but don’t just scrap it from the record.

4 years as GM, no playoffs, and a plan that by reasonable reckoning and the reckoning of the team’s internal expectations this season failed this year: a first, for the plan. I’m with you: you should NOT scrap it right now. 

But in a league where it’s uncommon to miss 4 straight years, if Adams is GM for 5 and we miss all 5, 2 of which represent HIS plan failing on expectation twice in a row? That’d be my line.

He has a shot to right his wrongs from last summer, this one coming up 

Edited March 27 by Thorny

[Thorny]

I mean it should be noted many of those more bullish about this season coming in, like the post I quoted at the beginning of the thread, were talking playoffs this year as a bare minimum. Winning a round or two this year was more our speed. Missing entirely this year shouldn’t just be framed as a miss it’s a significant failing. Doing so yet again next season and having nothing to show for 5 years when measured against the goals the rest of the NHL actually strives for would be glaring 

There’s no rule that a new GM has to go through a grace period where he brings in “his guys”. You hire the guy who says “with a summer of a few tweaks I can get this team in the playoffs.”

believe it or not, THAT’s actually how most of the rest of the league operates. Penciling in the new guy to necessarily be “job security dude 6.0” is a very Buffalo thing.

Edited March 27 by Thorny

[tom webster]

4 hours ago, dudacek said:

Absolutely we should have expected more from this year.

And that’s even if you subscribe to my personal belief that this is more realistically described as year 3 of a ripped-down-to-the-studs rebuild. (People seem to forget that we started ‘Adams 2.0’ with our top 6 forwards coming off seasons of 13, 10, 8, 7, 4 and 2 goals, respectively, and for 3 of those guys, those were career bests).

Last year’s Sabres team missed the playoffs by just 1 point coming off 2 years of steady improvement. It clearly had talent given the offence it had just put up. It was resilient, fast and explosive. Its holes — goaltending, PK, commitment to team defence, stoutness up front, and depth on the blue line were pretty obvious and should have been fixable.

Ironically, the team looks to have fixed, or at least improved, most of those holes. But in the process it got slower and easier to frustrate.

Sabrespace has wrongly excoriated this team as being terrible when really it’s kinda like it was last year — just a different shade of mediocre.

But the pieces and the opportunities were there last summer for Adams and Granato to make this year something more and they were unable to do so. Sure the core is callow, but Adams did not bring in the right pieces, nor Granato push the right buttons to smooth or mask the pitfalls of that reality.

I can’t see any way to describe this year as anything other than a failure. And they have to own that.

I don’t disagree with any of this. The point I was clumsily trying to make is that it hasn’t been as easy as some have implied to pass what was and has been the standard bearers for the last four years.

I expected more this year and believe there were opportunities to speed up the process. I also believe they deserve one more year.

[Hank]

6 hours ago, SwampD said:

 

It’s amazing to me just how many posters in the past 13 years have been “right” about the future,… until they weren’t.

 

In my two plus decades on this board you've never seen me give my opinion on a player and been wrong. 

[Hank]

7 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Kevyn and Don, should we really expect more after four years?

Yes.

It's not like they had nothing to work with when they got here.  

Cozens, Montour, Reinhart, Eichel, Dahlin, Ullmark, Samuelsson, Ryan Johnson, Casey Mittelstadt, Tage Thompson, Jeff Skinner, UPL, and Bryson were all in the system or already on the Sabres when he arrived.  That's the makings of a pretty fine hockey club had he and the Sabres stuck with it.   They (He and TP) decided to jettison the "old" core of Reinhart, Montour, Risto and Eichel after the RK debacle which is fine, but they have to live with the consequences. 

Besides that, the Sabres should have been a playoff team for the last two seasons.  Had Adams simply invested in some decent goalies with the prospects developed this team would have made the playoffs in 22/23 and likely would have built of that success this season and be where Detroit is right now. 

So yes, we should have expected more and they should have delivered more. 

To your point, let's not make the same mistakes. We traded top line players for prospects. Trading those prospects, plus picks, for in thier prime 3rd line players as some are advocating for because they're impatient on the develop part of draft and develop would be a mistake. 

You've been advocating for a number one goalie, 6K has emerged as one. You've been advocating for a top four defenceman, Adams got you a top pair defenceman in Byram. These are two huge pieces that are encouraging for next year. Still some work to be done. 

Glad you didn't put me on ignore Thorny. Cheers!

[Thorny]

9 minutes ago, Hank said:

To your point, let's not make the same mistakes. We traded top line players for prospects. Trading those prospects, plus picks, for in thier prime 3rd line players as some are advocating for because they're impatient on the develop part of draft and develop would be a mistake. 

You've been advocating for a number one goalie, 6K has emerged as one. You've been advocating for a top four defenceman, Adams got you a top pair defenceman in Byram. These are two huge pieces that are encouraging for next year. Still some work to be done. 

Glad you didn't put me on ignore Thorny. Cheers!

It was a funny joke 

[SwampD]

51 minutes ago, Hank said:

In my two plus decades on this board you've never seen me give my opinion on a player and been wrong. 

Cool. Great job. What does that have to do with how KA builds a team and what we should expect from them after four years?

[Night Train]

4 years in. The youth/growing/prospect angle has been played ad nauseam. 

Now to add Vets with grit,hustle and leadership to help the youth on our current squad to take another step. Trade some kids.

[SabreFinn]

I Still do have trust in Kevyn and Don. The team that they took over was both tortured and abused and the worst ever seen in NHL. It had been pushed under the surface, pulled up and then pushed under again. Not many would even consider to take over a team like that. Four years is a long time in business and the lenght of the playoff draught is horribel, and most of the fanbase is upset and irritated. Still except for this year it has been progress (in some specific areas also this year). But with a young team the progress is not linear and to me another missed playoff was to expect, even if there is so much hope and expectations. 

It was not the best way with a rookie GM, a rookie coach, the youngest team and a team captain without much winning experience. But if that was what we got, then what can we do.

When it comes to next season, my strong opinion is that if they are not in a playoff-spot at Thanksgiving, Granato has to go.

[_Q_]

As a returning fan 3 years ago after leaving the Sabres in my youth, my perspective will always be different than most of you all.  I don't have the losing fatigue.

The result of this season hinged on one thing.  One thing that was very well highlighted by many of you before the season and that is needing an answer in goal.  If we simple replaced Comrie's 1-7 with 8 more games of the Levi that we have, that is a 6-7 point swing and we are right in the thick of it.  Not including underperformance/injuries to Tage, Tuch, Skinner, Quinn, and Couzins.

If we paired the goaltending of this year with the O performance of last, we are having an entirely different discussion.

[French Collection]

While Pegula has had a quick trigger finger to fire GMs I think he gives KA a full season. Missing the playoffs, again, should be the line in the sand. Pegula should make this clear and KA needs to act accordingly. Keep the baby Sabres but make the role guys next level. Get the Goodrow, Coleman, Gourde, Paul, Maroon, Perry, Colton types that Tampa identified to fill out roles.

DG is well liked by almost everyone in the organization. I think it is time to move on from him and bring in a grittier, experienced coach. KA probably keeps DG but has a fixed amount of games to show that they can make it.

One ex coach that hasn’t been mentioned is Quennevlle. I know he really messed up and he should have to own up to his role in that fiasco. If he has payed his penance and gets a pardon from Bettman, he would be chomping at the bit for a job and should be looking to redeem himself. If his sins were too awful then get Gallant or Berube, they have been to the playoffs.

[postseasonblues]

It's harder to miss the playoffs in the NHL for 13 years than people give them credit for.

[Hank]

1 hour ago, Night Train said:

4 years in. The youth/growing/prospect angle has been played ad nauseam. 

Now to add Vets with grit,hustle and leadership to help the youth on our current squad to take another step. Trade some kids.

Yes. We traded first line players for prospects. Let's trade those prospects, plus picks, for third line players. That's brilliant! 😒

[Night Train]

3 minutes ago, Hank said:

Yes. We traded first line players for prospects. Let's trade those prospects, plus picks, for third line players. That's brilliant! 😒

Where did I say 3rd line players  ???   You're having conversations with yourself again. That way you're never wrong. Mental gymnastics. 

[PASabreFan]

It's really not that complicated.

Why is KA's plan so long and torturous?

If it's really his choice among so many other plans, he should be fired.

Of course it's not his choice.

Nothing changes unless Terry changes or sells the team.

[SwampD]

8 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

It's really not that complicated.

Why is KA's plan so long and torturous?

If it's really his choice among so many other plans, he should be fired.

Of course it's not his choice.

Nothing changes unless Terry changes or sells the team.

This summer will be very telling…

(I tried to go into depth, but there was just too much, so I hit delete and I’ll just leave it at that.)

[PASabreFan]

2 minutes ago, SwampD said:

This summer will be very telling…

(I tried to go into depth, but there was just too much, so I hit delete and I’ll just leave it at that.)

I recall Brawndo's take that Terry would be taking the metaphorical gloves off after this season.

[Archie Lee]

It might be worth noting that the starting point of the Adams purge was perhaps singularly unique. The Adams purge that started with the Krueger firing, did not occur after the team had a run of success and was getting old. It happened after a completely failed rebuild (not Adams' fault). There were seven players who were either traded or not re-signed during the tear down who I would argue could have been considered part of an ongoing veteran core:  Eichel, Reinhart, Taylor Hall, Risto (I know), Montour, McCabe and Ullmark. It was not Adams choice to get rid of all these players, and many (most) wanted out, but the average age of those players was under 27, and none were 30. I'm not arguing Adams should have kept them. What's important is that because we had never achieved any success with those players, we were continuing to acquire top prospects. Already in the system at the time the Adams purge started were (by draft year) Thompson, Mittelstadt, Jokiharju, Luukkonen, Dahlin, Samuelsson, Cozens, Johnson, Quinn* and Peterka* (*drafted by Adams). So, Adams was not starting with an empty pool of young players and prospects. He started the rebuild with seven 1st rd picks aged 23 and under in the system, four of those were top 10 picks with Dahlin being a #1. Also, because we were so awful under Krueger, Adams was able to take Power 1st overall in 2021 and within a year had himself a 2nd top four d-man who could play 23+ minutes a night. 

I think the above should be considered when we assess what Adams has accomplished. He started with really good under 23 talent. To Adams credit, him and Granato helped create an environment that allowed that existing talent to bloom fairly quickly to the point where, with a few good vets already here or added, it got us within a point of the playoffs. I would argue that through last season Adams had successfully navigated the team out of a toxic mess, through a steady progression toward the cusp of where we want to go: the playoffs and eventually playoff success. My concern though is when an inexperienced person has success early in their career, they may fail to recognize what portion of their success was from making good and smart decisions and what portion came from luck or good fortune. Hopefully Adams is wise enough to recognize the difference and takes steps this off-season to ensure we don't need to rely so much on luck and good fortune to take the big step forward that is needed. 

 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Adams was charged with cleaning up the mess.  Granato was charged with developing a young team.

Adams is doing a bang up job - now that 6K has found himself.  Granato and the young ones regressed a bit this year, but I maintain that the main reason for that was the decision to focus on the defencive part of the game.

Both will likely have next season at least and probably several more.

[LGR4GM]

15 hours ago, tom webster said:

1) Montreal - a true anamoly

2) Calgary - a team on a rise set back byTkaczuk and other contract issues

3) Seattle - went all in on year two but now have taken a major step back

4) New Jersey - considered a year ahead of Buffalo last year, they too have taken a step back

5) Philly - a "Torts" surge likely to last this year but no excuses, they continue to win.

6) Vancouver - they've been out of the playoffs since 2014/2015 I believe

Further, 

Out of the bottom ten teams from KA's first year;

Six are behind Buffalo this year

LA has become a perenial playoff team but where well on their way when Buffalo started the rebuild.

New Jersey made it last year.

Detroit may this year.

1. Fired their HC after the 2022 season
2. Fired the HC in 2023 after failing to make the playoffs by 2 points
3. Only in his 3rd year has HC for Seattle who is only in their 3rd year as a franchise
4. Just fired their HC Lindy Ruff recently after being bad (goalie issues) even though they will finish above Buffalo most likely
5. Fired their HC in 2022 and hired Torts who is their current coach. 
6. Fired their HC in 2023 and hired Tocchet
7. Lets add in LA, fired their HC in January 2024
8. How about Detroit, 2022 fired their HC

So every single one of those teams you listed fired and moved on from their HC in the time that Granato has been HC with the Sabres except for Seattle. I think Adams will stay but I see no reason why Granato should. At a minimum, every single one of this assistants except the goalie coach should be fired and replaced with an experienced veteran coach. Lack of accountability in Buffalo for a product that regressed (they play some really boring uninspired hockey for long stretches) and will miss the playoffs for the 4th straight year under Granato and Adams. 

[tom webster]

13 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

1. Fired their HC after the 2022 season
2. Fired the HC in 2023 after failing to make the playoffs by 2 points
3. Only in his 3rd year has HC for Seattle who is only in their 3rd year as a franchise
4. Just fired their HC Lindy Ruff recently after being bad (goalie issues) even though they will finish above Buffalo most likely
5. Fired their HC in 2022 and hired Torts who is their current coach. 
6. Fired their HC in 2023 and hired Tocchet
7. Lets add in LA, fired their HC in January 2024
8. How about Detroit, 2022 fired their HC

So every single one of those teams you listed fired and moved on from their HC in the time that Granato has been HC with the Sabres except for Seattle. I think Adams will stay but I see no reason why Granato should. At a minimum, every single one of this assistants except the goalie coach should be fired and replaced with an experienced veteran coach. Lack of accountability in Buffalo for a product that regressed (they play some really boring uninspired hockey for long stretches) and will miss the playoffs for the 4th straight year under Granato and Adams. 

Playing Devil’s advocate, they did all that and all except LA, are still either behind or on par with the Sabres and I wouldn’t bet against that being the case next year. Buffalo, Detroit and New Jersey are the real test case because all three are on roughly the same timeline and all three have issues to overcome.

For the record, I agree in the assistants.

[tom webster]

1 hour ago, PASabreFan said:

It's really not that complicated.

Why is KA's plan so long and torturous?

If it's really his choice among so many other plans, he should be fired.

Of course it's not his choice.

Nothing changes unless Terry changes or sells the team.

The point is that no one in similar circumstances has come up with a faster plan. Vegas was an anamoly that will likely never be repeated. 

[LGR4GM]

8 minutes ago, tom webster said:

Playing Devil’s advocate, they did all that and all except LA, are still either behind or on par with the Sabres and I wouldn’t bet against that being the case next year. Buffalo, Detroit and New Jersey are the real test case because all three are on roughly the same timeline and all three have issues to overcome.

For the record, I agree in the assistants.

Why should granato stay? He has accomplished next to nothing in his 4 year term has head coach. 

[sabremike]

Sabres have missed the playoffs for 13 seasons and counting. The single worst team in the history of pro sports (1962 Mets) won the World Series in their 8th season. The idea that a half decade of being a league punching bag is in any way acceptable is completely ridiculous.