The Dahlin Contract

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Tage, Mule and now Cuzsie.  Dahlin will happily sign the Tage deal ...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(+ 2.75 per year) ... 8 x $9.75M AAV ... with $15M in salary and bonus in year 1 and year 2.

[French Collection]

If a part of the salary is “shares” in the team, would that count vs the cap?

There are probably CBA rules against that sort of thing but I am trying to get creative with a franchise player. TP wouldn’t go there anyway.

[SwampD]

5 hours ago, Buffalonill said:

Is this a article ? Because Dahlin doesn't sound like a guy that would be selfish like that 

No. It's the translation of this.

6 hours ago, LHSN1965 said:

Si Dahlin a signé un contrat pont, c’était qu’il misait sur lui et surtout que Buffalo ne voulait pas le payer.

Dahlin a gagné. Il va demander 100 millions pour 8 ans.

Si Buffalo ne veut pas encore le payer, il va encore signer un contrat pont de 3 ans et 9.5 millions.

Ensuite il ne jouera plus à Buffalo! Car il va demander 20 millions lorsqu’il aura son autonomie complète.

 

[...]

Dahlin has made a lot of money off the Sabres already. The guy has bought into the culture, his teammates and - I'm guessing here, but - bringing the Cup to Buffalo.

I could see him giving a discount, but also aspiring to be a "100 millionaire", so if I were forced to guess contract terms it would be $10.1 mil x 7 years with a full no-trade clause.

[Eleven]

2 minutes ago, SwampD said:

No. It's the translation of this.

 

Si Dahlin a signé un contrat pont, c’était qu’il misait sur lui et surtout que Buffalo ne voulait pas le payer.

Dahlin a gagné. Il va demander 100 millions pour 8 ans.

Si Buffalo ne veut pas encore le payer, il va encore signer un contrat pont de 3 ans et 9.5 millions.

Ensuite il ne jouera plus à Buffalo! Car il va demander 20 millions lorsqu’il aura son autonomie complète.

 

For those who aren't good with other languages (I am fluent in Spanish, French, and Esperanto, so I've got this):

Yes, Dahlin signed a point contract, certainly he missed Luigi what Buffalo would violate a player.

Dahlin a gag joke.  It goes about a hundred million miles in 8 hours.

Yes, Buffalo is not violent to pay again, she goes to sing again on a point of three contracts with Ann.  9.5 million something.

In their private suite, Buffalo and Carolina will demand and ill 20 million somethings, and his aura is completely autonomous. 

[SwampD]

35 minutes ago, Eleven said:

Si Dahlin a signé un contrat pont, c’était qu’il misait sur lui et surtout que Buffalo ne voulait pas le payer.

Dahlin a gagné. Il va demander 100 millions pour 8 ans.

Si Buffalo ne veut pas encore le payer, il va encore signer un contrat pont de 3 ans et 9.5 millions.

Ensuite il ne jouera plus à Buffalo! Car il va demander 20 millions lorsqu’il aura son autonomie complète.

 

For those who aren't good with other languages (I am fluent in Spanish, French, and Esperanto, so I've got this):

Yes, Dahlin signed a point contract, certainly he missed Luigi what Buffalo would violate a player.

Dahlin a gag joke.  It goes about a hundred million miles in 8 hours.

Yes, Buffalo is not violent to pay again, she goes to sing again on a point of three contracts with Ann.  9.5 million something.

In their private suite, Buffalo and Carolina will demand and ill 20 million somethings, and his aura is completely autonomous. 

So, you speak French, but with a Papiamento accent.

Edited February 9, 2023 by SwampD

[Thorny]

2 hours ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:

Tage, Mule and now Cuzsie.  Dahlin will happily sign the Tage deal ...

(+ 2.75 per year) ... 8 x $9.75M AAV ... with $15M in salary and bonus in year 1 and year 2.

Dahlin (10)                      tage deal + 3

 

 

Tage (7)                          tage deal 

Cozens (7)                      tage deal

 

Samuelsson (4)              tage deal -3      
 

Average: Tage Deal 

..gotta say, Dahlin getting 10 rounds out the Buffalo Tage-Deals better 

 

Edited February 9, 2023 by Thorny

[Curt]

7 hours ago, Thorny said:

Dahlin (10)                      tage deal + 3

 

 

Tage (7)                          tage deal 

Cozens (7)                      tage deal

 

Samuelsson (4)              tage deal -3      
 

Average: Tage Deal 

..gotta say, Dahlin getting 10 rounds out the Buffalo Tage-Deals better 

 

This is the type of in depth evaluation that I returned to SabreSpace for.

[MattPie]

17 hours ago, Curt said:

Probably because for much of 2020 and 2021 he played like doggy doo.

He often looked like a very talented hockey player who didn’t have a clue how he was supposed to be playing out there.  I chalk it up to him being 19-20 and the coaching staff giving him terrible direction.

Everyone knows how he is supposed to be playing now.

Exactly. I doubt the team would have given him a long term deal. There were serious conversations on this board about what we could get for him in a trade (and it wasn't a ton). After that All-star game, it clicked into place and he's what you see today.

[LGR4GM]

4 minutes ago, MattPie said:

Exactly. I doubt the team would have given him a long term deal. There were serious conversations on this board about what we could get for him in a trade (and it wasn't a ton). After that All-star game, it clicked into place and he's what you see today.

Those conservations on this board, I always thought were premature but since I got flak for saying Dahlin was still going to be a superstar, Krueger was garbage. Dahlin has and will continue to be one of, if not, the best defencemen in the national hockey league. 

[RochesterExpat]

15 hours ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:

(+ 2.75 per year) ... 8 x $9.75M AAV ... with $15M in salary and bonus in year 1 and year 2.

Just an FYI, there is no way mathematically in which $15m first and second year can result in a $9.75m AAV over 8 years under the current CBA.

This is the more likely contract structure:

My guess is Dahlin signs for 8 years at $9.825m cap hit which will be structured something akin to:

Year 1 - 2024-2025: $775K base, $11.225m signing bonus, $12m total.

Year 2 - 2025 - 2026 $12m base

***Year 3 - 2026 - 2027 $775k base, $11.225m signing bonus, $12m total

Year 4 - 2027 - 2028 $12m base

Year 5 - 2028 - 2029 $9m base

Year 6 - 2029 - 2030 $7.2m base

Year 7 - 2030 - 2031 $7.2m base

Year 8 - 2031 - 2032 $7.2m base

*** Current CBA expires September of 2026 and, given the possibility of a lockout that season, I think this structure is going to help push the deal through as the bonus gets paid regardless of whether a season happens or not and there is certainly a value to guaranteed money.

And, yes, I am suggesting he goes for $9.825m AAV in part because the numbers work out nicely which made the math easy for me--but if he signs for anywhere between $9.5 and 10 I suspect it's using the above structure. He'll also get major "brownie points" (value TBD) for signing under $10m--although the above ultimately will cost him $1.4m pre-tax so maybe we can put a value on brownie points after all.

This is a perfectly kosher NHL standard contract per the updated CBA. The max year-over-year differential is under the 25% of year one salary ($3,000,000) and the lowest year is exactly 60% of the value of the highest year ($7.2m).

Keep in mind, Dylan Cozens, Tage Thompson, Mattias Sameulsson and Dahlin's bridge all got a $2m signing bonus paying the first year. VO, Bryson, Boosh, Girgs, Joki, Comrie, Anderson, and Mittlestadt are all 100% base salary contracts with no signing bonus. KO is consistent with signing bonuses. It's $2m or nothing.

I think Dahlin is the player who breaks the mold for KA signings and I think it's the signing bonus timing and front-loaded structure which motivates him to sign for less, but I don't see KA breaking the mold entirely and making the entire contract minimum + signing bonus. I think it's first year (as he's done in the past) and then he dangles the CBA year as a treat.

If Dahlin signs for 8 years at a still reasonable $10.5m and follows the KA contract pattern of a first year $2m signing bonus with every-year-after-paid-the-same, and a lockout happens in 2026, his contract value at conclusion is $73.5m whereas my above contract is $77.8m. Similarly, my above contract has him netting $6,000,000 added money in the first four years. Assuming that money is invested at the same rate (we'll use 7%) as the money from surplus the last four years of the $10.5m contract, the difference in total contract value is around $3.9m in favor of the $10.5m AAV--which is a little easier to swallow than the paper $5.4m total contract difference. If the ROI on his investments are 10%, the value difference in contracts is now under $3m. When you add in the guaranteed money from the possibility of a contract lockout, I think a reasonable person would consider the lower AAV contract to be a better deal even without the concept of a "team friendly" hit.

And, again, all of that is still not even taking into Dahlin's competitiveness which might make him take a lower AAV if he knows that means the team will be a contender as a result of having more cap room.

Anyway, that's my $.02 as armchair GM. Take it for what you will. Of course, it's also all predicated on the Pegulas being okay with a contract of that structure.

Edited February 9, 2023 by RochesterExpat
Fixed the years.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

13 hours ago, Thorny said:

Dahlin (10)                      tage deal + 3

 

 

Tage (7)                          tage deal 

Cozens (7)                      tage deal

 

Samuelsson (4)              tage deal -3      
 

Average: Tage Deal 

..gotta say, Dahlin getting 10 rounds out the Buffalo Tage-Deals better 

 

If KA manages to get it done at $9.75 per I will allow you to round it up to 10 just to make it all work out in your rather OCDish* way of thinking about it.

*It's a dumb ass joke.  OCD is not fun.  Trust me ... I know.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

5 minutes ago, RochesterExpat said:

Just an FYI, there is no way mathematically in which $15m first and second year can result in a $9.75m AAV over 8 years under the current CBA.

This is the more likely contract structure:

My guess is Dahlin signs for 8 years at $9.825m cap hit which will be structured something akin to:

Year 1 - 2023-2024: $775K base, $11.225m signing bonus, $12m total.

Year 2 - 2024 - 2025 $12m base

Year 3 - 2025 - 2026 $12m base

***Year 4 - 2026 - 2027 $775k base, $11.225m signing bonus, $12m total

Year 5 - 2027 - 2028 $9m base

Year 6 - 2028 - 2029 $7.2m base

Year 7 - 2029 - 2030 $7.2m base

Year 8 - 2030 - 2031 $7.2m base

*** Current CBA expires September of 2026 and, given the possibility of a lockout that season, I think this structure is going to help push the deal through as the bonus gets paid regardless of whether a season happens or not and there is certainly a value to guaranteed money.

And, yes, I am suggesting he goes for $9.825m AAV in part because the numbers work out nicely which made the math easy for me--but if he signs for anywhere between $9.5 and 10 I suspect it's using the above structure. He'll also get major "brownie points" (value TBD) for signing under $10m--although the above ultimately will cost him $1.4m pre-tax so maybe we can put a value on brownie points after all.

This is a perfectly kosher NHL standard contract per the updated CBA. The max year-over-year differential is under the 25% of year one salary ($3,000,000) and the lowest year is exactly 60% of the value of the highest year ($7.2m).

Keep in mind, Dylan Cozens, Tage Thompson, Mattias Sameulsson and Dahlin's bridge all got a $2m signing bonus paying the first year. VO, Bryson, Boosh, Girgs, Joki, Comrie, Anderson, and Mittlestadt are all 100% base salary contracts with no signing bonus. KO is consistent with signing bonuses. It's $2m or nothing.

I think Dahlin is the player who breaks the mold for KA signings and I think it's the signing bonus timing and front-loaded structure which motivates him to sign for less, but I don't see KA breaking the mold entirely and making the entire contract minimum + signing bonus. I think it's first year (as he's done in the past) and then he dangles the CBA year as a treat.

If Dahlin signs for 8 years at a still reasonable $10.5m and follows the KA contract pattern of a first year $2m signing bonus with every-year-after-paid-the-same, and a lockout happens in 2026, his contract value at conclusion is $73.5m whereas my above contract is $77.8m. Similarly, my above contract has him netting $6,000,000 added money in the first four years. Assuming that money is invested at the same rate (we'll use 7%) as the money from surplus the last four years of the $10.5m contract, the difference in total contract value is around $3.9m in favor of the $10.5m AAV--which is a little easier to swallow than the paper $5.4m total contract difference. If the ROI on his investments are 10%, the value difference in contracts is now under $3m. When you add in the guaranteed money from the possibility of a contract lockout, I think a reasonable person would consider the lower AAV contract to be a better deal even without the concept of a "team friendly" hit.

And, again, all of that is still not even taking into Dahlin's competitiveness which might make him take a lower AAV if he knows that means the team will be a contender as a result of having more cap room.

Anyway, that's my $.02 as armchair GM. Take it for what you will. Of course, it's also all predicated on the Pegulas being okay with a contract of that structure.

👀

[Thorny]

11 hours ago, MattPie said:

Exactly. I doubt the team would have given him a long term deal. There were serious conversations on this board about what we could get for him in a trade (and it wasn't a ton). After that All-star game, it clicked into place and he's what you see today.

You are absolutely correct

but/ And those conversions were wildly premature, and that’s not revisionist history on my part re: my stance in those discussions at the time 

11 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Those conservations on this board, I always thought were premature but since I got flak for saying Dahlin was still going to be a superstar, Krueger was garbage. Dahlin has and will continue to be one of, if not, the best defencemen in the national hockey league. 

I could have just read one more post 

Edited February 10, 2023 by Thorny

[LGR4GM]

11 hours ago, Thorny said:

You are absolutely correct

but/ And those conversions were wildly premature, and that’s not revisionist history on my part re: my stance in those discussions at the time 

I could have just read one more post 

There were a lot of snarky posts about how the draft guys on this board were basically stupid and Dahlin wasn't even that good and haha look how wrong they were what a bunch of stupids. It was all premature overreactions but a group that loves to point out when someone else is wrong but will bend themselves into pretzels to avoid admitting their own mistakes. Anyways, Dahlin is pretty ***** good isn't?

[Weave]

51 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

There were a lot of snarky posts about how the draft guys on this board were basically stupid and Dahlin wasn't even that good and haha look how wrong they were what a bunch of stupids. It was all premature overreactions but a group that loves to point out when someone else is wrong but will bend themselves into pretzels to avoid admitting their own mistakes. Anyways, Dahlin is pretty ***** good isn't?

Let’s bring it back down to earth a bit. The snark was about all the generational and best since Potvin comments.

He’s developed into an outstanding defenseman.  A ways to go before Potvin or generational talk though.

[Thorny]

4 hours ago, Weave said:

Let’s bring it back down to earth a bit. The snark was about all the generational and best since Potvin comments.

He’s developed into an outstanding defenseman.  A ways to go before Potvin or generational talk though.

For me it was more so all the questioning about whether we had seen Dahlin’s ceiling. 

Absurd now, absurd then.