Shopping Jack Eichel: Vegas

[inkman]

On 8/4/2021 at 12:27 PM, JohnC said:

Apparently based on the reported offers the injured Jack value is less than Jones's value. If completely healthy there is no question that Jack has more market value. But in this situation that is not the case. 

I haven’t seen any actual reported offers.  Just stuff people are making up.  

[Curt]

26 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Vegas 1st = St.Louis 1st

Elvenes = 2nd

Krebs > Thompson

Smith > Berglund, Sobotka

If anyone is keeping score

I would argue with Elvenes=2nd.  A guy who was already very productive in the AHL at ages 20/21 is generally worth more than a late 2nd.  Maybe if it was a late 1st/early 2nd I could agree.

 

[dudacek]

6 minutes ago, inkman said:

I haven’t seen any actual reported offers.  Just stuff people are making up.  

Larry Brooks reported the Rangers offered Kravtsov, Jones, Georgiev and a 1st.

Whether he or his sources made it up, I have no idea.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I think the deal is going to be Smith, Krebs, Elvenes, Korczak, and a 2022 1st

Adams then moves Smith at the TDL with 50% retention for a pick

Edited August 8, 2021 by Der Jaeger

[Sabres Fan in NS]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Reilly Smith is from Ontario so it wouldn't be all awful for him to play in Buffalo. 

What part?

Ontario is a big place and much of it is not close to Buffalo atoll.

[Curt]

5 minutes ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

What part?

Ontario is a big place and much of it is not close to Buffalo atoll.

Toronto metro area

[dudacek]

4 minutes ago, Curt said:

I would argue with Elvenes=2nd.  A guy who was already very productive in the AHL at ages 20/21 is generally worth more than a late 2nd.  Maybe if it was a late 1st/early 2nd I could agree.

 

Not saying you’re wrong, but had you heard of Elvenes prior to the recent rumour?

He was the Knights 2nd, 4th and 7th ranked prospect on the three lists I’ve read, and the Knights have an average prospect group. I looked at 2 top 100 prospect lists and another that ranked 150 and he wasn’t listed. 

I can’t recall a player with his pedigree ever being traded for a 1st-round pick.

[Curt]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

Not saying you’re wrong, but had you heard of Elvenes prior to the recent rumour?

He was the Knights 2nd, 4th and 7th ranked prospect on the three lists I’ve read, and the Knights have an average prospect group. I looked at 2 top 100 prospect lists and another that ranked 150 and he wasn’t listed. 

I can’t recall a player with his pedigree ever being traded for a 1st-round pick.

I was not familiar with Elvenes prior to focusing on the G Knights’ prospects.  I think that’s more a function of not paying close attention to other teams prospects between the draft and NHL than anything else though.  Elvenes was an unknown at draft time, but once a guy shows talent and production surpassing his draft slot, it’s no longer relevant.

When Olofsson came over and was doing well in the AHL, would you have traded him for a late 2nd?

[Thorny]

10 hours ago, dudacek said:

I will say that as a guy who throughly enjoyed the play of Team Canada at the World Juniors this year, the thought of potentially adding Krebs to our team puts a huge smile on my face.

That was a team that outscored their opponents 41-6 and didn’t allow an even strength goal until their seventh game, and it’s best players were Byrum, Drysdale, Krebs, Levi and Cozens, with Jack Quinn chipping in 5 points and a tourney 3rd best overall +10.

Burying the lead here as if this wasn't the entire point of your post 😉

56 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Vegas 1st = St.Louis 1st

Elvenes = 2nd

Krebs > Thompson

Smith > Berglund, Sobotka

If anyone is keeping score

Elvenes has more value than a 2nd right now

[Thorny]

4 minutes ago, Curt said:

I was not familiar with Elvenes prior to focusing on the G Knights’ prospects.  I think that’s more a function of not paying close attention to other teams prospects between the draft and NHL than anything else though.  Elvenes was an unknown at draft time, but once a guy shows talent and production surpassing his draft slot, it’s no longer relevant.

When Olofsson came over and was doing well in the AHL, would you have traded him for a late 2nd?

Also, trade market value and actual value aren't the same thing. Draft picks fetch more in trades than they are actually worth, I'd argue. 

The going rate on market for Reino was a 1st and 30/70 goalie prospect. Is that Reinhart's actual value for a team he's playing on? Two assets more likely to never play in the NHL?

The trade market is just the trade market 

Edited August 8, 2021 by Thorny

[dudacek]

27 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Also, trade market value and actual value aren't the same thing. Draft picks fetch more in trades than they are actually worth, I'd argue. 

The going rate on market for Reino was a 1st and 30/70 goalie prospect. Is that Reinhart's actual value for a team he's playing on? Two assets more likely to never play in the NHL?

The trade market is just the trade market 

I get you in that odds are good Brandon Montour is probably going to contribute more for your team than the 29th pick you gave up for him, and almost certainly more than the 88th pick you got for him.

But from a hockey economics point of view picks are league currency and an excellent way of measuring how much actual teams value an asset.

Prospects are a different animal. Devon Levi and Lucas Elvenes might be worth a late 1st and a late 3rd respectively to one team and the opposite to another.

But ultimately market value is the price the highest bidder will pay, not the average price.

As the Risto trade proves.

Edited August 8, 2021 by dudacek

[Thorny]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

I get you in that odds are good Brandon Montour is probably going to contribute more for your team than the 29th pick you gave up for him, and almost certainly more than the 88th pick you got for him.

But from a hockey economics point of view picks are league currency and an excellent way of measuring how much actual teams value an asset.

Prospects are a much animal. Devon Levi and Lucas Elvenes might be worth a late 1st and a late 3rd respectively to one team and the opposite to another.

But ultimately market value is the price the highest bidder will pay, not the average price.

As the Risto trade proves.

Complete with the underlying context that changes based on the teams in question. Say, the cap space saved by having a pick instead of a player or prospect being paid. Point being - asset value, especially under the prism of the accepted workings of trades, are not necessarily accurately reflective of on-ice value. So agree with your sentence directly after the bold. 

Even if Elvenes and a 2nd are adjudged to have roughly equal value with the parameters of an NHL deal, doesn't mean the deal with Elvenes isn't better for the Sabres. The trade market just doesn't always give a good reflection of on ice value. If I buy i PS4 for 300 bucks and take it to Microplay to trade it in immediately after purchase, I'll literally get like 50 bucks because that's it's trade value, because of all the other context that goes into how that item will be handled going forward, but that thing is still really worth what I paid for it, if I still want it. 

[triumph_communes]

PPG in AHL under 20 is late first value 

[dudacek]

Might have posted this on here before, but I think NHL GMs look at value through a prism of 4Ps.

Production

It’s surprising how much this is overlooked by internet fandom, but it simply means “what can this player do right now?” Yes, it’s goals and assists, but it is also minutes played, forechecking, backchecking, special teams, entries and exits - everything a player can contribute on the ice for my team, right now.

Price

This is simply the cap hit, the value of that hit, how it fits into my overall contract situation, and what that contract could turn into moving forward.

Position

This relates to supply and demand. How big is the hole I need to fill, how important is it that I fill it and how readily available are players that meet my need? Part of this applies to off-ice things, like leadership, and marketability as well. Probably be better called “fit” but that doesn’t start with P

Potential

This is the projection element: where is this player in terms of his career growth? Does he have more to give? How much?

Edited August 8, 2021 by dudacek

[Curt]

15 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

PPG in AHL under 20 is late first value 

He didn’t do that.

2019-20, age 20 whole season, 48 points in 59 games

2020-21, age 21 whole season, 24 points in 37 games

[Gabrielor]

2 hours ago, Der Jaeger said:

I think the deal is going to be Smith, Krebs, Elvenes, Korczak, and a 2022 1st

Adams then moves Smith at the TDL with 50% retention for a pick

That deal is a major win.

(You can say it's Vegas' problem, and I'd respect that) I don't know how they shed more cap though, unless Tuch is a lock to be Kucherov'd the entire season.

[inkman]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

Larry Brooks reported the Rangers offered Kravtsov, Jones, Georgiev and a 1st.

Whether he or his sources made it up, I have no idea.

 

Any *credible reports?  That NYC windbag doesn’t know Jack, pun intended. 

[Gabrielor]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

Larry Brooks reported the Rangers offered Kravtsov, Jones, Georgiev and a 1st.

Whether he or his sources made it up, I have no idea.

 

I'd believe it on the basis that the national reports from guys like Friedman are: "the Sabres and Rangers agree on almost nothing with respect to an Eichel deal".

That offer fits.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I just get the feeling Vegas is Jack's ultimate destination.  They are a Cup contender but lack the true superstar up front (no Mark Stone isn't a superstar, just overpaid) to make their team more dynamic.  I think their owner will do anything to get this team over the top.  They need a superstar and we have one for sale for the right price.

I'd start with Tuch and Reilly Smith.  Tuch because he'd become a core piece once healthy again.  Smith can play 1st line center for the last year of his deal and between both contracts we'd get as much Cap as Jack costs.

We'd need their 1st also and Krebs?  Something else? I'm not sure I'd make this deal if I were them, but they are in win now mode.

[Hoss]

30 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I just get the feeling Vegas is Jack's ultimate destination.  They are a Cup contender but lack the true superstar up front (no Mark Stone isn't a superstar, just overpaid) to make their team more dynamic.  I think their owner will do anything to get this team over the top.  They need a superstar and we have one for sale for the right price.

I'd start with Tuch and Reilly Smith.  Tuch because he'd become a core piece once healthy again.  Smith can play 1st line center for the last year of his deal and between both contracts we'd get as much Cap as Jack costs.

We'd need their 1st also and Krebs?  Something else? I'm not sure I'd make this deal if I were them, but they are in win now mode.

Vegas feels like it makes a lot of sense even if I'm firmly in the Jack isn't going anywhere camp. Mark Stone isn't overpaid, though. He might not be a superstar but he's damn good. His playoff performance this year does shake my confidence in him a bit but we'll see if that repeats next year.

Tuch is definitely a piece I'd like though he's cheap and under control so I think Vegas will place a very high value on a guy like him. I don't know that Reilly Smith has played center in years if ever so I don't imagine him logging minutes at the 1C is a possibility. His contract certainly helps move the deal along, though.

Their 1st and Krebs are definitely in the deal if we make it.

[Gabrielor]

Another great day for an Eichel-Krebs/stuff trade.

 

If I were a Knights fan, I would do this immediately.

[Ripper]

On 8/15/2021 at 10:46 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

I just get the feeling Vegas is Jack's ultimate destination.  They are a Cup contender but lack the true superstar up front .... to make their team more dynamic.  I think their owner will do anything to get this team over the top.

Could be.  And a side thought if JE goes to LV.  The Sabs could be the only NHL franchise in history that, within a four year period, trades their two best players who then led their new team to a Stanley Cup the following season.  We can't be that cursed - can we?

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, Ripper said:

Could be.  And a side thought if JE goes to LV.  The Sabs could be the only NHL franchise in history that, within a four year period, trades their two best players who then led their new team to a Stanley Cup the following season.  We can't be that cursed - can we?

Yes we can, but despite those saying "just keep Jack," Jack is gone as soon as KA feels the deal is adequate.  Look at how he handled Reinhart.  He could have signed him to a one year deal and then traded him at the deadline for exactly (if not more) then he got from Florida.  Instead he took the first "reasonable" deal from a division rival no less, that appeared on his desk.  

14 hours ago, Gabrielor said:

Another great day for an Eichel-Krebs/stuff trade.

 

If I were a Knights fan, I would do this immediately.

You can't expect KA to get a good deal for Eichel.  We are going to lose the deal because we are trading the best player.  We just have to hope the futures we receive at least turn into good players.