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2020 Draft Rankings Not Soon Enough...

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21 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Is it generally only a good guide for scoring forwards? I’m thinking the Tom Wilsons and Erik Cernaks of the world might fall through the cracks.

Also, I get how you can look at Brayden Point”s production and say he should have been drafted higher, but how do you account for Sam Bennett producing very similar numbers to Point but not carrying it over, or Michael Dal Colle and Mikhail Grigorenko scoring in the same range and busting?  Guys like Chris Tierney with dog——  numbers in their draft year?

How much weight to give the numbers?

That's a reason you use the percentile and SEAL adjusted scoring. It helps you figure out some of the noise. You can use it for defenders as well because the correlation is less but defenders that don't produce much at lower levels raise red flags. 

You start or end with the production depending on how you scout. I start with it because i've limited in what I can do so it helps weed out guys. 

You should be looking at numbers over at 2 years, rakish does I think 3 years. Honestly if we look back at Grigorenko, I'd bet there's something questionable in the numbers. You also have to take into account the team they are on, Jarvis outscored Quinn playing on a worse team and being the top dog on his team in a tougher league. 

I'll try to talk more on it tomorrow but the numbers are only a piece of the puzzle. 

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56 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Is it generally only a good guide for scoring forwards? I’m thinking the Tom Wilsons and Erik Cernaks of the world might fall through the cracks.

Also, I get how you can look at Brayden Point”s production and say he should have been drafted higher, but how do you account for Sam Bennett producing very similar numbers to Point but not carrying it over, or Michael Dal Colle and Mikhail Grigorenko scoring in the same range and busting?  Guys like Chris Tierney with dog——  numbers in their draft year?

How much weight to give the numbers?

At some point it's just randomness and luck. There are butterfly effect moments happening everywhere all the time. 

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4 minutes ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

Just passing throught ...

BARRON!!

😎

In what round? 

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2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

In what round? 

I think he is projected to be a mid first rounder.

The Sabres would have to trade to get into the range.

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1 minute ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

I think he is projected to be a mid first rounder.

The Sabres would have to trade to get into the range.

You are talking about Justin Barron correct?

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3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

You are talking about Justin Barron correct?

Yes.

 

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25 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

You are talking about Justin Barron correct?

Have you met NS?  It's really not tough to figure out which team he's talking about when it comes to draft prospects.

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1 hour ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

Yes.

 

no defenders

the incredibles edna mode GIF

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Barron would have to slide to 38 and I would really need a good excuse. He was on a bad team and his production dropped. He also had a health issue... I think it was blood clots if I remember, it's in a scouting report. That's a guy that you have to do more due diligence than I can before you can comfortably take him but I wouldn't consider it anywhere in the 1st round. 

Edited by LGR4GM

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