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2020 Draft Rankings Not Soon Enough...


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21 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Is it generally only a good guide for scoring forwards? I’m thinking the Tom Wilsons and Erik Cernaks of the world might fall through the cracks.

Also, I get how you can look at Brayden Point”s production and say he should have been drafted higher, but how do you account for Sam Bennett producing very similar numbers to Point but not carrying it over, or Michael Dal Colle and Mikhail Grigorenko scoring in the same range and busting?  Guys like Chris Tierney with dog——  numbers in their draft year?

How much weight to give the numbers?

That's a reason you use the percentile and SEAL adjusted scoring. It helps you figure out some of the noise. You can use it for defenders as well because the correlation is less but defenders that don't produce much at lower levels raise red flags. 

You start or end with the production depending on how you scout. I start with it because i've limited in what I can do so it helps weed out guys. 

You should be looking at numbers over at 2 years, rakish does I think 3 years. Honestly if we look back at Grigorenko, I'd bet there's something questionable in the numbers. You also have to take into account the team they are on, Jarvis outscored Quinn playing on a worse team and being the top dog on his team in a tougher league. 

I'll try to talk more on it tomorrow but the numbers are only a piece of the puzzle. 

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56 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Is it generally only a good guide for scoring forwards? I’m thinking the Tom Wilsons and Erik Cernaks of the world might fall through the cracks.

Also, I get how you can look at Brayden Point”s production and say he should have been drafted higher, but how do you account for Sam Bennett producing very similar numbers to Point but not carrying it over, or Michael Dal Colle and Mikhail Grigorenko scoring in the same range and busting?  Guys like Chris Tierney with dog——  numbers in their draft year?

How much weight to give the numbers?

At some point it's just randomness and luck. There are butterfly effect moments happening everywhere all the time. 

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1 minute ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

I think he is projected to be a mid first rounder.

The Sabres would have to trade to get into the range.

You are talking about Justin Barron correct?

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25 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

You are talking about Justin Barron correct?

Have you met NS?  It's really not tough to figure out which team he's talking about when it comes to draft prospects.

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Barron would have to slide to 38 and I would really need a good excuse. He was on a bad team and his production dropped. He also had a health issue... I think it was blood clots if I remember, it's in a scouting report. That's a guy that you have to do more due diligence than I can before you can comfortably take him but I wouldn't consider it anywhere in the 1st round. 

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5 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Lando can wear a cape. 

You and few others here are exceptional in the analysis of draft prospects. It's a treat reading your views on this draft class.  I salute you and the others in your knowledge of the prospects. ? It seems that right now Lafreniere and Byfield are ranked in the top two with Stutzle and Perfetti also considered in the upper echelon by some. If you were asked what couple of players in the second half of the top ten (5-10) could turn out to be very good players who would they be? 

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3 hours ago, JohnC said:

You and few others here are exceptional in the analysis of draft prospects. It's a treat reading your views on this draft class.  I salute you and the others in your knowledge of the prospects. ? It seems that right now Lafreniere and Byfield are ranked in the top two with Stutzle and Perfetti also considered in the upper echelon by some. If you were asked what couple of players in the second half of the top ten (5-10) could turn out to be very good players who would they be? 

Funny you should ask because there is a podcast that Rakish recorded on this subject. 

In no particular order:

Seth Jarvis, underrated due to a mediocre Helinka tourney and he plays in the WHL which always seems to get a little less credit than it should. I think he is an offensive spark plug with everything you want in a top 10 player, hands, skating, shot, and rumor is he is actually 5'11" now so size isn't a concern. I don't have concerns with him to be honest, I just think scouts overrate this short tourneys and underrate the WHL. 

Marco Rossi, questions about his size and skating (his skating is great, his speed is only good) but he's a pit viper cornered protecting his young or something. Shoots, throws the body, goes to the dirty areas, creates havoc. The concern really is, how well will he translate to the NHL and is there much room for improvement. 

Alex Holtz, I think his skating improved or his beginning of the year highlights just magically don't look as good for some reason. Sniper with some snarl, the type of sniper a lot of teams will like and he can play both sides of the ice... defense needs some work. 

Lucas Raymond, clever winger with great skating and hands. He was overwhelmed and got limited minutes in the SHL but that's due to his current size and need for muscle which never bothers me. My issue is that I think sometimes he can be a perimeter player looking to snag a loose puck and find a teammate and I personally want someone forcing that puck loose. 

That's it for me unless I did forget someone. 

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42 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Who the heck is Rakish? Is he an Indian guru that you follow when you are in a deep state of meditation? ?

Ummm yes... going to go with yes. 

 

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2 hours ago, JohnC said:

Who the heck is Rakish? Is he an Indian guru that you follow when you are in a deep state of meditation? ?

If he and Liger were in charge of the Sabres Draft, the team and prospect pool would be much better 

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4 minutes ago, Ducky said:

Me too

3 hours ago, JohnC said:

Who the heck is Rakish? Is he an Indian guru that you follow when you are in a deep state of meditation? ?

He's a poster who looks at scoring and uses it to model prospects. 

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10 hours ago, Brawndo said:

If he and Liger were in charge of the Sabres Draft, the team and prospect pool would be much better 

I wrote about my draft contest, Mom's Basement Stakes, year 7 over at hfb.

If  you add it all up, I think Pronman would be out in the lead, then liger, me, Button, McKenzie, Sabres. Liger pointed me to the website pick224 a few weeks ago, I think it'll improve my drafting, as now I can use even strength points rather than overall points.

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49 minutes ago, rakish said:

I wrote about my draft contest, Mom's Basement Stakes, year 7 over at hfb.

If  you add it all up, I think Pronman would be out in the lead, then liger, me, Button, McKenzie, Sabres. Liger pointed me to the website pick224 a few weeks ago, I think it'll improve my drafting, as now I can use even strength points rather than overall points.

In the last 2 years I would say my view of drafting has completely changed and also pick224 has helped. 

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I'm not sure where we're supposed to talk about this since so many threads are closed.  The Rags already have an $11 million wing and now they'll have two more stud prospect wings.  Long-term, who is skating between all these wingers?

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1 minute ago, shrader said:

I'm not sure where we're supposed to talk about this since so many threads are closed.  The Rags already have an $11 million wing and now they'll have two more stud prospect wings.  Long-term, who is skating between all these wingers?

Somebody's getting moved long term. It's like the old Thrashers all over again 

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