2019 NHL Draft

[Brawndo]

Sam Cosentino’s May Rankings 

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/sportsnets-2019-nhl-draft-prospect-rankings-may/

[Taro T]

On Tuesday, May 07, 2019 at 8:23 PM, LGR4GM said:

It matters, there's a tier difference, maybe 2 between 19 and 29. 

29th is the only 1 of the last 4 slots the Sabres can't end up in.  28th is only possible if the Avs win tonight.  Otherwise, should the SC head east, the Sabres get 30 & should it head west, then the Sabres draft 31.

[Brawndo]

The 2nd First Rounder will be 30th or 31st. 

The 28th Pick for Montour was a very good deal. 

[Thorny]

15 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

The 2nd First Rounder will be 30th or 31st. 

The 28th Pick for Montour was a very good deal. 

Could be the 29th, the pick for Montour. Haha

EIther way, you are right that it's a good deal. Ducks should have known better than to intertwine their luck with the Sabres, here. 

Edited May 9, 2019 by Thorny

[Derrico]

Ya I’m passed the second first is 30 or 31 but I would have been really pissed if we kept both picks and they both ended up 28+.

[Derrico]

Montour is a very nice player.  I’m really looking forward to seeing what he can do the next few years.  It was fun watching him paired with Dahlin.

[GASabresIUFAN]

10 hours ago, Taro T said:

29th is the only 1 of the last 4 slots the Sabres can't end up in.  28th is only possible if the Avs win tonight.  Otherwise, should the SC head east, the Sabres get 30 & should it head west, then the Sabres draft 31.

Anyone objecting to the Montour trade now? At 30 or 31, the best we are going to get is a guy 2, but probably 3 years from the NHL. 

I think I’d rather trade down and get 2 2nd rd picks.

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Anyone objecting to the Montour trade now? At 30 or 31, the best we are going to get is a guy 2, but probably 3 years from the NHL. 

I think I’d rather trade down and get 2 2nd rd picks.

There shouldn't be.  Liked the trade when it looked like the Ducks were getting a mid-20's pick.

But disliking the O'Reilly trade even more than when it looked like the 1st was going to be for a mid-teens pick.  Should Skinner walk, that trade ends up O'Reilly & Guhle for Montour, Thompson, a time discounted 2nd & Sobotka (& wasted cap space).  The Sabres needed Montour, but giving up 1 of the best 2 way C's in the league and eating a cap dump was an extremely high, too high a, price to pay.

Don't follow the draft eligible kids after the top end closely enough to know if grabbing the extra 2 would be good or bad relative to keeping 30/31.  Would probably rather see that included in a package for a #2 C today that can fit in as the #3 in 2 years when Mittelstadt is ready for 2C himself.  Should be easier to get a 2RW than a 2C via FA or lesser assets, and if Skinner is re-signed could even throw Rodrigues in there until the trade deadline in a worst case.  (Not saying E-Rod gets traded deadline, saying Sabres are buyers at deadline & with 5 of 6 top 6 slots filled by IMHO legit top 6 players having the 6th guy be a 3rd liner can work, for those not following closely.)

Edited May 9, 2019 by Taro T

[Curt]

6 minutes ago, Taro T said:

There shouldn't be.  Liked the trade when it looked like the Ducks were getting a mid-20's pick.

But disliking the O'Reilly trade even more than when it looked like the 1st was going to be for a mid-teens pick.  Should Skinner walk, that trade ends up O'Reilly & Guhle for Montour, Thompson, & Sobotka (& wasted cap space).  The Sabres needed Montour, but giving up 1 of the best 2 way C's in the league and eating a cap dump was an extremely high, too high a, price to pay.

Don't follow the draft eligible kids after the top end closely enough to know if grabbing the extra 2 would be good or bad relative to keeping 30/31.  Would probably rather see that included in a package for a #2 C today that can fit in as the #3 in 2 years when Mittelstadt is ready for 2C himself.  Should be easier to get a 2RW than a 2C via FA or lesser assets, and if Skinner is re-signed could even throw Rodrigues in there until the trade deadline in a worst case.  (Not saying E-Rod gets traded deadline, saying Sabres are buyers at deadline & with 5 of 6 top 6 slots filled by IMHO legit top 6 players having the 6th guy be a 3rd liner can work, for those not following closely.)

Regarding the bolded, Skinner has nothing to do with that.  Acquiring Skinner was not dependent upon those trades.  Also, Buffalo acquired an additional 2020 2nd from St. Louis.

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, Curtisp5286 said:

Regarding the bolded, Skinner has nothing to do with that.  Acquiring Skinner was not dependent upon those trades.  Also, Buffalo acquired an additional 2020 2nd from St. Louis.

Which was sent to Carolina as part of the package for Skinner.  Which is whyif he walks, that evaporates.

Edited May 9, 2019 by Taro T
Nevermind...

[GASabresIUFAN]

@Taro T your argue assumes that Montour is all we end up with for ROR.  Thompson is only 21 and still can develop into a top 6 player.  While this isn’t great return for a top end 2nd line center, we also save significant long term cap and there was a business aspect to the trade (saving the bonus money). Far from ideal but far from awful.  

However no looking backward anymore.  Jbot has a choice at 30/31.  Keep the pick or trade down.  From my reading there isn’t much separating guys from 28-50.  I’d rather have 2 chances in that tier vs 1.  

[Curt]

4 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Which was sent to Carolina as part of the package for Skinner.  Which is whyif he walks, that evaporates.

This is factually incorrect.  Buffalo traded their 2019 2nd and 2020 3rd for Skinner.  Buffalo recieved the Blues' 2021 2nd in the O'Reilly trade.  I did have the year wrong on that 2nd.

[LGR4GM]

17 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

@Taro T your argue assumes that Montour is all we end up with for ROR.  Thompson is only 21 and still can develop into a top 6 player.  While this isn’t great return for a top end 2nd line center, we also save significant long term cap and there was a business aspect to the trade (saving the bonus money). Far from ideal but far from awful.  

However no looking backward anymore.  Jbot has a choice at 30/31.  Keep the pick or trade down.  From my reading there isn’t much separating guys from 28-50.  I’d rather have 2 chances in that tier vs 1.  

You know where I stand on this. Looking at the draft right now, there would be a couple of teams but it does not make a ton of sense for them to move up 2 spots or 6 spots and give away 2 assets. I am not sure there is a trading partner for it. As always I would rather pick where we are. 

Spencer Knight is in play at this point. I wouldn't but I get why he would be. 

My options currently sit at one of these players dependent on others not sliding. I tried to pick guys that have a good chance of being available at 30/31. Nicholas Robertson, Samuel Poulin, Philip Tomasino, John Beecher, Maxim Cajkovic. That would be my short list currently. I was tempted to add a defender in here but there is too much forward talent for that. 

[Taro T]

54 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

@Taro T your argue assumes that Montour is all we end up with for ROR.  Thompson is only 21 and still can develop into a top 6 player.  While this isn’t great return for a top end 2nd line center, we also save significant long term cap and there was a business aspect to the trade (saving the bonus money). Far from ideal but far from awful.  

However no looking backward anymore.  Jbot has a choice at 30/31.  Keep the pick or trade down.  From my reading there isn’t much separating guys from 28-50.  I’d rather have 2 chances in that tier vs 1.  

No.  IMHO Thompson & Guhle are a wash and Guhle was added to essentially the St. Louis 1st to get Montour, thus adding him to the package sent out.  And the Sabres do appear to still have the extra 2nd next year still, so add that to their column as well.

As Terry Pegula has stated multiple times, the cash involved in these transactions isn't a big deal to him, I'll take him at his word on that and discount the saved cash by not picking up his bonus.  They did waste their cap space obtained when Berglund went AWOL and pretty much wasted the actual cash savings of not paying O'Reilly as well.

And to your other point, Botterill has a 3rd option of using that pick as part of a package to gain a desperately needed 2C.  Not 100% behind that choice, but until reading more on guys available around 30-45, that's looking very viable.

50 minutes ago, Curtisp5286 said:

This is factually incorrect.  Buffalo traded their 2019 2nd and 2020 3rd for Skinner.  Buffalo recieved the Blues' 2021 2nd in the O'Reilly trade.  I did have the year wrong on that 2nd.

My bad.  Thanks for the correction.  (Know I read that pick went out, clearly that was incorrect & should have gone back to double check.)

[LGR4GM]

I am putting this together because all hope is not lost. There is some good talent in this draft and we can get it at 30/31. Honestly I want SJ to win at this point so 31 is fine. Here are my options for the 31st overall pick. 

Nicholas Roberston: 5'9"LW, Sept 11, 2001

Someone once stole a puck from Nicholas Roberston, he found them... and back-checked them to death. As I have said many times, I like Roberston's game. He is always moving. Between scouting reports and the videos, you can see this. Down low you can occasionally see him pushed off the puck. In the defensive zone there is some question on his game, it needs refinement. He seems to over commit sometimes but that is mainly his non-stop motor being used incorrectly and I think that is something you learn with age. Speaking of age, he is one of the youngest players in the draft. Raphael Lavoie is almost a full calendar year older. I would keep an eye on his height at the combine, I have a suspicion that he's had a small growth spurt (aka he's 5'10"). Either way he has good hands, good shot, great skating. His top end speed is very good and his edgework and acceleration are excellent. He probably needs 2 more years in the minors but IMPO this is worth the weight. You want a guy built for physical aggressive playoff hockey, this guy. I think it was Scott Wheeler on the Athletic who said, "this guy plays in all caps" 

 

Samuel Poulin: 6'2" LW, Feb 25, 2001

Now I know some people will want some more size in their pick. Let's talk about that with Poulin. He is already a good and strong player. Well rounded is the best way to word it. He is almost like a poor man's Boldy in some ways. He was the best player on a ok team and seems to have played his best hockey in the playoffs. 14 points in 10 games is solid. His skating is an interesting topic. He has good balance and good top speed. His edgework is fine but can improve. His acceleration is not a problem but a concern. He doesn't look quick and I think that is because he is wasting power on his first step or two so that can probably be corrected. Outside of that he does everything else well and is gritty, not the mascot. He plays a 200ft game and will battle for the puck in any zone. His shot I think is underrated. 

 

Philip Tomasino: 6'0" C, July 28th, 2001

Another young player for this draft (I define young as any one in the back 1/4 of a draft, June 15th-Sept 14th) Tomasino is someone who might not be there. He keeps climbing rankings for the most part. Part of that climb has to do with great skating. He accelerates fast and is dynamic. By dynamic I mean you should watch him cut and and move. Just electric on skates. I think his shot is only okay but that might be a strength thing. His passing is really good and he is creative. Now some project him as a winger because he played a bunch of that this year but I think he is a center. He's a little raw which is why he can be drafted here. He is good though and if he can get stronger and work on his d-zone game, he could be a steal. 

John Beecher: 6'3" C, April 5, 2001

I like Beecher but I don't love him. He does a lot of things well but there isn't a thing that blows me away. He can be physical and does battle well down low. His skating is fine there aren't any glaring issues. Part of his problem was he played on a team with Hughes, Turcotte, and Zegras so he got what was left over. He just screams 3rd line center to me. He can get some points and has an good shot but I think his ceiling is mediocre 2nd line center and that just makes me look elsewhere. If we had a 2nd (in the late 30's) I might be more inclined because I think he makes the NHL in 3 years but it just isn't a ton of potential IMPO. Still like him and he could blossom once he gets a bigger role but he's more of a safe pick than anything. 

There really isn't a good highlight package for John and that isn't surprising. 

 

Maxim Cajkovic: 5'11" RW, Jan 3, 2001

The darkhorse pick. He played on what can only be described as a team devoid of talent. He was the leading scorer of a QMJHL team with 46 points. The next closest guy on the team had 34points. That said, this kid is sneaky good. I would take him over Beecher easily. There is a snap to his game. His skating is also very good, he is fast and quick with good edges. I think he sees the ice okay but hard to tell with the team he was on. His shot though... fast, hard, accurate. He is fun to watch rifle home pucks. He seems to forecheck really well and can fight off checks. Not much on his defensive game, so I would guess it isn't an issue. Offensively from what I have read and watched, he's going to be good. This is the type of guy who might slide a bit because he has only 1 NA year, his production wasn't great, he played for an awful team, and he doesn't have elite size. If you don't take him in the first (where he should go) and he magically is there in the 3rd... run to the podium, push grandma down if you need too, punch Gary in the face and Tim Murray that pick. 

 

[dudacek]

Robertson looks like a Botterill winger (until @thorny points out that CHL thing.)

[Thorny]

4 hours ago, Taro T said:

There shouldn't be.  Liked the trade when it looked like the Ducks were getting a mid-20's pick.

But disliking the O'Reilly trade even more than when it looked like the 1st was going to be for a mid-teens pick.  Should Skinner walk, that trade ends up O'Reilly & Guhle for Montour, Thompson, a time discounted 2nd & Sobotka (& wasted cap space).  The Sabres needed Montour, but giving up 1 of the best 2 way C's in the league and eating a cap dump was an extremely high, too high a, price to pay.

Don't follow the draft eligible kids after the top end closely enough to know if grabbing the extra 2 would be good or bad relative to keeping 30/31.  Would probably rather see that included in a package for a #2 C today that can fit in as the #3 in 2 years when Mittelstadt is ready for 2C himself.  Should be easier to get a 2RW than a 2C via FA or lesser assets, and if Skinner is re-signed could even throw Rodrigues in there until the trade deadline in a worst case.  (Not saying E-Rod gets traded deadline, saying Sabres are buyers at deadline & with 5 of 6 top 6 slots filled by IMHO legit top 6 players having the 6th guy be a 3rd liner can work, for those not following closely.)

Guhle for Thompson seems fair. 

So, O'Reilly for Montour, a time discounted 2nd and Sobotka ?

Sobotka is a net negative cancelling out the value of the discounted 2nd.

So, O'Reilly for Montour. Unless Montour develops into a first pairing stud, fringe All-Star,  it's one of the worst trades of the last several years. 

---

The second bolded, who are the 5? I count: Eichel, Reinhart, Skinner, New 2C...?

Edited May 9, 2019 by Thorny

[Thorny]

32 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Robertson looks like a Botterill winger (until @thorny points out that CHL thing.)

Watch, the one time Botterill picks a guy out of the CHL it'll be Robertson, an American haha (Don't actually think he has a Canadian player bias, just league, lending itself to an abundance of Americans and Europeans). 

The kids was born on Sept. 11, 2001. Crazy.

Wow, I feel old. 

---

Also, that "Botterill selects small players" thing might begin to have some actual merit if he picks someone that small with his second 1st. 

Edited May 9, 2019 by Thorny

[Taro T]

51 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Guhle for Thompson seems fair. 

So, O'Reilly for Montour, a time discounted 2nd and Sobotka ?

Sobotka is a net negative cancelling out the value of the discounted 2nd.

So, O'Reilly for Montour. Unless Montour develops into a first pairing stud, fringe All-Star,  it's one of the worst trades of the last several years. 

---

The second bolded, who are the 5? I count: Eichel, Reinhart, Skinner, New 2C...?

COMPLETELY on a limb with Olofsson.  He's been a goal scorer at every level includung his very brief stint on Eichel & Reinhart's other wing.  I've pencilled him into top 6.

The Sabres can't ALWAYS miss on late round picks.  Besides, that evens up Murray's score for Nylander. ;)

[Thorny]

1 minute ago, Taro T said:

COMPLETELY on a limb with Olofsson.  He's been a goal scorer at every level includung his very brief stint on Eichel & Reinhart's other wing.  I've pencilled him into top 6.

The Sabres can't ALWAYS miss on late round picks.  Besides, that evens up Murray's score for Nylander. ?

I'd be ok counting on Olofsson in the top 6, if we aren't also counting on Rodrigues in the top 6. 

If the only addition to the top 6 is a Kevin Hayes-like entity, 'tis not going to be enough. 

[Taro T]

4 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I'd be ok counting on Olofsson in the top 6, if we aren't also counting on Rodrigues in the top 6. 

If the only addition to the top 6 is a Kevin Hayes-like entity, 'tis not going to be enough. 

Well, preference is definitely to have Olofsson the sketchy part of the top 6, but "in a worst case," provided they stay reasonably healthy, Rodrigues being in that role shouldn't doom the 2nd (& all lower lines) to '18-'19 levels of production.

Note, I've also added that they'd need something better for the stretch run/ playoffs than E-Rod in the top 6.  Again, not ideal, but E-Rod playing 1 line too high (on a W no less) most of the season will not be the primary reason (or even in the top 3 reasons) they don't make the playoffs, should that be the end result.

[Thorny]

19 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Well, preference is definitely to have Olofsson the sketchy part of the top 6, but "in a worst case," provided they stay reasonably healthy, Rodrigues being in that role shouldn't doom the 2nd (& all lower lines) to '18-'19 levels of production.

Note, I've also added that they'd need something better for the stretch run/ playoffs than E-Rod in the top 6.  Again, not ideal, but E-Rod playing 1 line too high (on a W no less) most of the season will not be the primary reason (or even in the top 3 reasons) they don't make the playoffs, should that be the end result.

My problem with this line of thinking is that the "death by a thousand cuts" seems to be what's dooming the Sabres of late. There was no ONE thing wrong with the team last year, there were a bunch of things contributing to it. Totally get that you are saying it's not your preferred option, though. 

But if Olofsson is one line too high, Rodrigues is one line too high, Hayes is one line too high, McCabe is one line too high, Hutton is one line too high..

Skinner - Eichel - Reinhart

Olofsson - Hayes - Rodrigues

Sheary - Mittelstadt - Okposo

Dahlin - Montour

McCabe - Ristolainen

Hutton

Ullmark

Is that a playoff team? If Mittelstadt ignites this season, early, then I guess there's an outside chance. Who's the coach? Could be an x-factor.

But realistically, it looks like marginal improvement. If this is the team, it's strategy is to be good when Dahlin is Norris level. 

Eichel also has to have it written into his contract that he can't get injured next season, or the top 6 is a wreck. 

 

Edited May 9, 2019 by Thorny
Moved first portion to off-season thread

[Crusader1969]

46 minutes ago, Thorny said:

My problem with this line of thinking is that the "death by a thousand cuts" seems to be what's dooming the Sabres of late. There was no ONE thing wrong with the team last year, there were a bunch of things contributing to it. Totally get that you are saying it's not your preferred option, though. 

But if Olofsson is one line too high, Rodrigues is one line too high, Hayes is one line too high, McCabe is one line too high, Hutton is one line too high..

Skinner - Eichel - Reinhart

Olofsson - Hayes - Rodrigues

Sheary - Mittelstadt - Okposo

Dahlin - Montour

McCabe - Ristolainen

Hutton

Ullmark

Is that a playoff team? If Mittelstadt ignites this season, early, then I guess there's an outside chance. Who's the coach? Could be an x-factor.

But realistically, it looks like marginal improvement. If this is the team, it's strategy is to be good when Dahlin is Norris level. 

Eichel also has to have it written into his contract that he can't get injured next season, or the top 6 is a wreck. 

 

Love the thought but IF Skinner is back, I think he should play on the 2nd line and Olofsson play with Jack. I can see Skinner producing without Jack but can't say the Same thing of VO.

Have to hope Nylander is AT LEAST ready to take over the 3rd Line LW position of KO.

[Taro T]

50 minutes ago, Thorny said:

My problem with this line of thinking is that the "death by a thousand cuts" seems to be what's dooming the Sabres of late. There was no ONE thing wrong with the team last year, there were a bunch of things contributing to it. Totally get that you are saying it's not your preferred option, though. 

But if Olofsson is one line too high, Rodrigues is one line too high, Hayes is one line too high, McCabe is one line too high, Hutton is one line too high..

Skinner - Eichel - Reinhart

Olofsson - Hayes - Rodrigues

Sheary - Mittelstadt - Okposo

Dahlin - Montour

McCabe - Ristolainen

Hutton

Ullmark

Is that a playoff team? If Mittelstadt ignites this season, early, then I guess there's an outside chance. Who's the coach? Could be an x-factor.

But realistically, it looks like marginal improvement. If this is the team, it's strategy is to be good when Dahlin is Norris level. 

Eichel also has to have it written into his contract that he can't get injured next season, or the top 6 is a wreck. 

 

Through 50% of last season, a lesser squad than that was.

And, I'll consider the off season a failure if they don't bring back Skinner (or near equivalent), a 2C, & a 2RW.  But having something better at 3RW than Okposo (Ideally E-Rod or better, but in worse case not), so he can be the most overpaid 4RW in the league) puts that lineup (w/ Skinner & Olofsson flipped) on the bubble.  Bring in a real 2RW, so the 3rd line can thrive against lesser competition, and that SHOULD be the basis of a playoff squad.

Having a real coach will allow the ST's to actually help push them over the edge, though a reliance on ST's would doom a playoff run to a very short jaunt.

[LGR4GM]

With the 67th overall pick in the NHL draft... 

I know a lot of people don't really care about a pick this late. There are going to options though in this years draft.

Shane Pinto is the first one that comes to mind. At 67, he would need to slide a little. He should go in the 50's if you believe the rankings are roughly correct. I wanted to toss him on here anyways because draft day gets weird, just ask Brayden Point. Pinto is a good skater and smart player. He plays in the USHL so that might help him slide a little. I think he has all the makings of a middle 6 player. 

Alex Beaucage is the next up. He is a QMJHL guy but he's right in the Sabres range at 67. Sounds like sometime between last year and now he went through a growth spurt, 5'11" to 6'2". He shoots right but is listed as a LW/RW and I think that is because he gets used on the left for the PP. Good shot, good skating, and was over a ppg player in the Q. He has a late July b-day making him young in this draft class. He would be my current target. 

Albert Johansson is the last guy. He is a defender from Sweden! He should not be available at 67 but he could be. He has a lot of raw skill and is probably 3-4 years away from the NHL. He needs time to grow his game. I see him ranked in the 2nd round for the most part but he could slide and honestly, that's who we should be looking at with this pick, the guys who slide. Either way it adds a talented defender to the pool. Also he is 6' so not short, although he needs to eat some food.