2019 NHL Draft

[Hoss]

Ranking realistic Sabres targets based purely on how much their name screams "successful hockey player":

1. Alex Turcotte 19/48

2. Matthew Boldy 9/49

3. Cole Caufield 59

4. Dylan Cozens 24

5. Bowen Byram 44

6. Trevor Zegras 11/53

7. Kirby Dach 77

8. Peyton Krebs 19

 

Same group but mixing name and number choice:

1. Alex Turcotte (19/48)

2. Dylan Cozens (24)

3. Bowen Byram (44)

4. Matthew Boldy (9/49) -- loses points as 49 becomes somewhat likely here

5. Kirby Dach (77)

6. Peyton Krebs (19)

7. Trevos Zegras (11/53) -- would likely need a new number here but 53 is yikesville

8. Cole Caufield (59) -- you're fired, Cole

 

These are the definitive and only rankings you need. Scientific research done and approved by me, unable to be questioned by any.

Edited May 22, 2019 by Hoss

[LGR4GM]

I'm starting to get the impression we are going to see some reaches for defenders in this first round. 

[dudacek]

22 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I'm starting to get the impression we are going to see some reaches for defenders in this first round. 

Are you prepared for Cam York or Phillip Broberg at 7?

They certainly fit the Botterill profile.

[LGR4GM]

24 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Are you prepared for Cam York or Phillip Broberg at 7?

They certainly fit the Botterill profile.

That doesn't fit at all. I don't see Botterill reach in early rounds. There would be plenty of college bound players at 7 without going to Broberg or York. 

I expect teams after the top 8 to perhaps reach on defenders. The first round doesn't have many and teams get stupid. 

[dudacek]

26 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

That doesn't fit at all. I don't see Botterill reach in early rounds. There would be plenty of college bound players at 7 without going to Broberg or York. 

I expect teams after the top 8 to perhaps reach on defenders. The first round doesn't have many and teams get stupid. 

Botterill hasn’t shown a liking for mobile Swedish or college-bound defencemen?

Personally, I’d be unhappy, but I’ve seen mocks that have one those guys in the top 10.

[Brawndo]

Zegras, Boldy, Caufield or Turcotte if he is available will be the pick. 

Byram is the only D Man that the Sabres has would probably consider taking in the Top Ten 

[dudacek]

16 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Zegras, Boldy, Krebs or especially Turcotte if he is available should be the pick. 

Byram is the only D Man that the Sabres should probably consider taking in the Top Ten 

Agree with the changes, just preparing myself for possible disappointment.

Unless you’ve heard something...?

[Brawndo]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Agree with the changes, just preparing myself for possible disappointment.

Unless you’ve heard something...?

I got nuthin in the rumor department. 

 

[Brawndo]

Some Draft Write Ups 

http://mayorsmanor.com/2019/05/2019-nhl-draft-preview-matthew-boldy-usa-forward/

 

http://mayorsmanor.com/2019/05/2019-nhl-draft-preview-dylan-cozens-whl-center/

 

http://mayorsmanor.com/2019/05/2019-nhl-draft-preview-bowen-byram-whl-defenseman/

 

http://mayorsmanor.com/2019/05/2019-nhl-draft-preview-kirby-dach-center/

 

 

 

[LGR4GM]

16 hours ago, dudacek said:

Botterill hasn’t shown a liking for mobile Swedish or college-bound defencemen?

Personally, I’d be unhappy, but I’ve seen mocks that have one those guys in the top 10.

I'll respond to this in full shortly but no. You can't show me 1 instance in rounds 1 or 2 where Botterill reached for a defender. 

[LGR4GM]

Botterill has had 4 first and second round picks. Those were in order, Mittelstadt, Davidsson, Dahlin, Samuelsson. 

Your original question is a bad one. "Botterill hasn’t shown a liking for mobile Swedish or college-bound defencemen?" because it ignores all the variables that are important to answer it. Round being the first and reaching being the second. Showing a proclivity to draft college bound and foreign defenders in later rounds is done for a specific reason. Botterill has spoken to this. He likes the extra years of development he can get before having to decide if they are worthy of a contract. 

So if we answer the first questions of what round does he prefer these players, college or Swedish defenders we invariably answer the second question of reaching for a player because of the profile you built. Casey Mittelstadt was 100% not a reach and actually should have been drafted probably before that pick. Cody Glass and Lias Andersson come to mind when I say that. Marcus Davidsson was not a reach either. He was ranked 12th for Euro skaters by CSS. 

Let's transition to 2018. I don't think I have to explain the Dahlin pick but I will. Every scouting service, every scout, every human on the planet knew that Dahlin was going 1st overall as the best defensive prospect in several decades. Not a reach. That brings us to Samuelsson. I liked Jonatan Berggren more but Samuelsson at 32 was not a reach. He was ranked 21st by central scouting for north american players and 31st by ISS. 

That is 2 defenders and 2 forwards with those 4 picks. 

So to answer the question, no Botterill has not shown a liking for mobile Swedish or college-bound defenders in rounds 1 or 2 to the point that he would be willing to reach to take one. Furthermore if anything he has shown a proclivity to avoiding CHL players but considering the literal dearth of rankings that don't have 6-8 USDP/Euro players in the top 10 it seems highly unlikely that he would reach for a defender with the 7th overall pick solely because of the player profile you built.  

Sorry, I feel like this comes off as snarky and I don't mean it to be. It was more of a thought exercise based on the profile of the picks and the projected profile needed to reach. 

Edited May 24, 2019 by LGR4GM

[French Collection]

9 hours ago, Brawndo said:

Some Draft Write Ups 

http://mayorsmanor.com/2019/05/2019-nhl-draft-preview-matthew-boldy-usa-forward/

 

http://mayorsmanor.com/2019/05/2019-nhl-draft-preview-dylan-cozens-whl-center/

 

http://mayorsmanor.com/2019/05/2019-nhl-draft-preview-bowen-byram-whl-defenseman/

 

http://mayorsmanor.com/2019/05/2019-nhl-draft-preview-kirby-dach-center/

 

 

 

Good information. However, they don't list any weaknesses in the prospects, only accentuating the positive.

I like Boldy then Cozens. Byram is a stud D and I think he will be gone by #7. Leading the WHL in playoff scoring as a 17 year old D is impressive.

[LGR4GM]

Boldy needs to work on his quickness and I am not sure he has high end stick skills but his shot, agility, and IQ are all good. He reminds me a little of Pominville in his prime. 

Cozens needs to work on his consistency at times away from the puck. He has high end skills and loves to shoot. I think he has grown his game a lot throughout the year. 

Byram needs to work on decision making and that's about it. Everything else is really good and he will not be available at 7. If by some miracle he is, draft him. 

Dach needs to work on consistency I think in all areas. His skating if fine but not great. He is a pass first player and keeps sliding down my list because I like other players better. He is good though and I am hoping a team selects him in picks 3-6 to bump someone else to us. 

[dudacek]

43 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Botterill has had 4 first and second round picks. Those were in order, Mittelstadt, Davidsson, Dahlin, Samuelsson. 

Your original question is a bad one. "Botterill hasn’t shown a liking for mobile Swedish or college-bound defencemen?" because it ignores all the variables that are important to answer it. Round being the first and reaching being the second. Showing a proclivity to draft college bound and foreign defenders in later rounds is done for a specific reason. Botterill has spoken to this. He likes the extra years of development he can get before having to decide if they are worthy of a contract. 

So if we answer the first questions of what round does he prefer these players, college or Swedish defenders we invariably answer the second question of reaching for a player because of the profile you built. Casey Mittelstadt was 100% not a reach and actually should have been drafted probably before that pick. Cody Glass and Lias Andersson come to mind when I say that. Marcus Davidsson was not a reach either. He was ranked 12th for Euro skaters by CSS. 

Let's transition to 2018. I don't think I have to explain the Dahlin pick but I will. Every scouting service, every scout, every human on the planet knew that Dahlin was going 1st overall as the best defensive prospect in several decades. Not a reach. That brings us to Samuelsson. I liked Jonatan Berggren more but Samuelsson at 32 was not a reach. He was ranked 21st by central scouting for north american players and 31st by ISS. 

That is 2 defenders and 2 forwards with those 4 picks.  bott

So to answer the question, no Botterill has not shown a liking for mobile Swedish or college-bound defenders in rounds 1 or 2 to the point that he would be willing to reach to take one. Furthermore if anything he has shown a proclivity to avoiding CHL players but considering the literal dearth of rankings that don't have 6-8 USDP/Euro players in the top 10 it seems highly unlikely that he would reach for a defender with the 7th overall pick solely because of the player profile you built.  

Sorry, I feel like this comes off as snarky and I don't mean it to be. It was more of a thought exercise based on the profile of the picks and the projected profile needed to reach. 

LGR, I love your passion, but you are responding to a post that was largely ironic.

Without irony, your thesis addresses the crux of my personal belief about Botterill: that in the early rounds he will take his highest-ranked player, regardless of what league he comes from.

But that also means that he might take Broberg, or York, if, in fact, one of those guys is the highest-ranked player on his board.

Because his highest-ranked player will be based on his scouts, not your opinions, my opinions, or the consensus of the Internet.

[LGR4GM]

Well then he will be wrong. 

Edited May 24, 2019 by LGR4GM

[dudacek]

I think I’ve zeroed in on Boldy, since Turcotte and Byrum won’t be there.

I think he’s from the Mark Stone/Mikko Rantanen mould - versatile, super smart, understated skills, with the ability to play with elite guys and make them better. He’s got the upside, but he’s also safer than the rest that could be available, each of which I like, but has a small red flag.

Dach lacks passion, Cozens doesn’t have a first-line brain, Caufield is too much of a one-trick pony, Pod may have peaked early. I like Newhook and Krebs a lot, but do they have enough skill for 7? Zegras is 6 on my list because I love his skill, but I do worry about his edge.

It’s weird, because any of these guys give you reason to get excited and a good player will be available at 7, guaranteed.

But someone is going to bust and I don’t want it to be our guy.

 

[dudacek]

Interesting bit on the Sabres late-round success rate.

Since 2000, they rank 15th in the NHL with 13.2 % of their picks after the 2nd round playing 100 NHL games. 

But they haven’t had a player hit that mark since Foligno and McNabb in 2009.

[Thorny]

4 hours ago, dudacek said:

I think I’ve zeroed in on Boldy, since Turcotte and Byrum won’t be there.

I think he’s from the Mark Stone/Mikko Rantanen mould - versatile, super smart, understated skills, with the ability to play with elite guys and make them better. He’s got the upside, but he’s also safer than the rest that could be available, each of which I like, but has a small red flag.

Dach lacks passion, Cozens doesn’t have a first-line brain, Caufield is too much of a one-trick pony, Pod may have peaked early. I like Newhook and Krebs a lot, but do they have enough skill for 7? Zegras is 6 on my list because I love his skill, but I do worry about his edge.

It’s weird, because any of these guys give you reason to get excited and a good player will be available at 7, guaranteed.

But someone is going to bust and I don’t want it to be our guy.

 

All signs point to Boldy to me, if he's there, particularly if Botterill's faith in Mittelstadt is as unshaken as he's implied. You'd have to think we'd have a reasonable shot at 5/6 of our long-term top 6 being dialed in if Botterill can get Skinner signed. 

Skinner - Eichel - Reinhart

Boldy - Mittelstadt - WHO

That WHO needs to be filled ASAP, ideally with a UFA/trade addition this summer. Because winning now matters, a 2C needs to be added for the time being until Casey is ready. Hopefully a mix of Sheary/Oloffson/Nylander can fill in for Boldy until he is ready:

Skinner - Eichel - Reinhart

Oloffson - Not Hayes - UFA

---

Boy, do we really, really need to get Skinner signed.

Eichel is going to be 23, we need him to have that even strength goal-scorer on his line. 

Edited May 25, 2019 by Thorny

[Derrico]

7 hours ago, dudacek said:

Interesting bit on the Sabres late-round success rate.

Since 2000, they rank 15th in the NHL with 13.2 % of their picks after the 2nd round playing 100 NHL games. 

But they haven’t had a player hit that mark since Foligno and McNabb in 2009.

I’d love to see their second round rate.  Who is the last second round Sabre who has made much of a contribution?  Considering the past quantity and quality (top 10) second round picks it has absolutely killed this franchise.  McCabe 7 years ago?  I guess there’s some hope for the new guys (mainly the goalie) but wow there’s been very little in the second round over the past decade.

[dudacek]

They didn’t have a 2nd rounder three years in a row prior to McCabe.

2012 McCabe (NHL regular)

2013 Compher (NHL regular) Hurley (bust), Bailey (busting)

2014 Lemieux (close) Cornel (busting) Karabacek (bust)

2015 Guhle (close)

2016 Asplund (prospect)

2017 Davidsson (prospect) Luukkonnen (top prospect)

2018 Samuelsson (prospect)

Edited May 26, 2019 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

I just wanna say, Cole Fonstad and Jonatan Berggren

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

They didn’t have a 2nd rounder three years in a row prior to McCabe.

2012 McCabe (NHL regular)

2013 Compher (NHL regular) TRADED, Hurley (bust), Bailey (busting)

2014 Lemieux (close) TRADED, Cornel (busting) Karabacek (bust)

2015 Guhle (close) TRADED

2016 Asplund (prospect)

2017 Davidsson (prospect) Luukkonnen (top prospect)

2018 Samuelsson (prospect)

This is exactly why we lack depth. After McCabe, anyone who didn’t bust was traded or is still a prospect. Notice that 3 of the 4 prospects are Jbot’s.  

[Taro T]

15 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

This is exactly why we lack depth. After McCabe, anyone who didn’t bust was traded or is still a prospect. Notice that 3 of the 4 prospects are Jbot’s.  

Well, in fairness, even Nylander (who was 1st round & not 2nd so not mentioned here, we get it) would've still been considered a prospect last year.   VERY rare to dump a 2nd rounder or higher out of prospect status less than 2 years after being drafted.

[LGR4GM]

You wanna know why the rebuild failed? That list. You have to draft well. 

[Zamboni]

The “Sabres (compared to all the other teams) have drafted poorly in all rounds over the past 10 years” narrative is lame, dramatic and wrong. No matter how it “feels” worse to some.

I’m trying to find the article, but someone did an analysis of the “hit rate” of draft picks. All things were considered, like realistic expectations of the player, team depth, games played in what league and how many, injuries etc ...

The Sabres were right in the middle of the pack of the league. Ranked #14, 15 or 16 from what I recall.