Depth Scoring (again)

[Randall Flagg]

First, the good news: The depth on this team plays better hockey as a whole than the depth last season. Now, I define depth a little differently this year - last year we had the structure of two top six lines that were decent offensively, but lines 3 and 4 were an utter disaster.

Unfortunately, this year, it's been clear that if Jack, Jeff, and Jason aren't involved in the scoring, we aren't scoring. The better hockey hasn't translated to actual depth production. I projected every team's scoring from their forwards that aren't top 3 on their team in goals (sure, this makes some weird "depth players" on some teams with guys who pass the puck a lot), but the point is that we'll get a decent picture of organizational goal scoring depth, as goals are what wins hockey games. Sad face:

Outside of our team's goal scorers, we can't score goals. Again. For the millionth year in a row. Hopefully the sample size is small enough that things change, but nothing about their game to me screams that our bottom 3 lines are just waiting to bust out. 

Good news - our better-playing-than-last-year depth HAS climbed out of last place in total POINTS projected to 82 games, as Rodrigues, Kyle have 4 assists, Sam with 5. They are FOURTH worst in projected points, if last in projected goals. The discrepancy likely comes from our defensemen chipping in offensively, so that is one problem solved from last year.

We need to get these guys going though. And yes, I do know cleaner ways to make better plots, but it's so quick to use the online chart site that let me make this one. And no, I don't have the time to plot projected points. 

Edited November 3, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[GASabresIUFAN]

And what are we doing about this continued and on going problem?............. Re-organizing deck chairs on the Titanic.  

[Doohickie]

18 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Hopefully the sample size is small enough that things change

Here's the thing:  When you look at it from a program management perspective, generally trends that are established by the 15% mark of your program, tend to remain unchanged.  In the PM training I've taken, if you're more than 5 or 10% over budget or behind schedule at the 15% mark of your program, you can expect the trend to continue without active, even aggressive, intervention.

Which isn't to say that a sports season is like a business venture in all respects, but in this case I think it might be.  Which means it's time for active, even aggressive, intervention.  If secondary scoring is a problem, and we have people in Rochester that can help with that, it might be time to give them a look (if the goal is playoffs this season).  Sadly as far as this season goes, I think the goal is long term excellence which means what happens in Rochester stays in Rochester, at least for now.

So given that no infusion of talent is imminent, it's up to HCPH to line juggle or tweak his system to improve the scoring.  It's all on him.

[Doohickie]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

And what are we doing about this continued and on going problem?............. Re-organizing deck chairs on the Titanic.  

That's pretty much the only choice available if JBot refuses to mortgage the future (in Rochester) to salvage the season in Buffalo.  While I'm frustrated that the Sabres aren't doing better, I think another lost season might actually be the best course in terms of long term success.

So let Housley rearrange the deck chairs.  We've seen glimpses of good play from this team; maybe he can evoke those from the players on a more consistent basis.

[GASabresIUFAN]

9 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

That's pretty much the only choice available if JBot refuses to mortgage the future (in Rochester) to salvage the season in Buffalo.  While I'm frustrated that the Sabres aren't doing better, I think another lost season might actually be the best course in terms of long term success.

So let Housley rearrange the deck chairs.  We've seen glimpses of good play from this team; maybe he can evoke those from the players on a more consistent basis.

I guess I differ in that I believe that some of the guys in Roch deserve a call now.  We have guys we can send down that are failing their NHL audition (TT for example) that can replace the recalled prospect.  This team needs a shot in the arm offensively.  Recalling them to won't change their developmental curve or destroy Roch, but it will reward good play and give Jbot, PH and the fans an chance to evaluate the kids.  It also might jump start some secondary scoring.  

Edited November 3, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[Doohickie]

I don't think JBot sees it that way, so I don't anticipate a lot of help coming from the A this year.

[inkman]

44 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I guess I differ in that I believe that some of the guys in Roch deserve a call now.  We have guys we can send down that are failing their NHL audition (TT for example) that can replace the recalled prospect.  This team needs a shot in the arm offensively.  Recalling them to won't change their developmental curve or destroy Roch, but it will reward good play and give Jbot, PH and the fans an chance to evaluate the kids.  It also might jump start some secondary scoring.  

So you know for a fact that calling up Olafsson, , Nylander or Pilut won't retard their development? 

[Huckleberry]

Personally I want those guys staying in Rochester and get a winning attitude there.  I would move Samson to center, but I'm pretty much alone in that view I think ?

[GASabresIUFAN]

6 hours ago, inkman said:

So you know for a fact that calling up Olafsson, , Nylander or Pilut won't retard their development? 

How would a temporary call up retard their development especially two guys, Pilut and Olofsson,  who are already seasoned pro hockey players?  Remember they have been pros in Sweden since they were 16. Those guys are 22 and 23, not 18.

If they make our team better in Buffalo then they are ready to be NHLers.  If not, send them back down for more seasoning.  Guys like Campbell, Roy, Miller were recalled and sent back down at least 3 times before sticking.

I’d also like to see Nylander play in some games that matter to see how much he has progressed.  

Edited November 3, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[Weave]

7 hours ago, Doohickie said:

Here's the thing:  When you look at it from a program management perspective, generally trends that are established by the 15% mark of your program, tend to remain unchanged.  In the PM training I've taken, if you're more than 5 or 10% over budget or behind schedule at the 15% mark of your program, you can expect the trend to continue without active, even aggressive, intervention.

Which isn't to say that a sports season is like a business venture in all respects, but in this case I think it might be.  Which means it's time for active, even aggressive, intervention.  If secondary scoring is a problem, and we have people in Rochester that can help with that, it might be time to give them a look (if the goal is playoffs this season).  Sadly as far as this season goes, I think the goal is long term excellence which means what happens in Rochester stays in Rochester, at least for now.

So given that no infusion of talent is imminent, it's up to HCPH to line juggle or tweak his system to improve the scoring.  It's all on him.

Totally agree with your premise that active intervention is needed to change the trajectory. 

 

7 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I guess I differ in that I believe that some of the guys in Roch deserve a call now.  We have guys we can send down that are failing their NHL audition (TT for example) that can replace the recalled prospect.  This team needs a shot in the arm offensively.  Recalling them to won't change their developmental curve or destroy Roch, but it will reward good play and give Jbot, PH and the fans an chance to evaluate the kids.  It also might jump start some secondary scoring.  

There is no fix for what ails us that exists in Rochester.

Without a good 2nd line center the kids in Rochester aren't providing a thing.  The kids you want to see up here are wings.  They are going to flounder, most likely worse than Sam is floundering, because they aren't used to playing against NHL talent and we don't have a #2 center to be the foundation for their line.  It is a setup for failure.

There is only one way this gets fixed.  OK, 2 ways.  One is for JBotts to swing a trade and get this team a legit #2 center.  The other is for Casey to have a sudden, miracle growth spurt and start playing like a legit #2 center.  I don't see Casey having a miracle growth spurt.  His development is going to take time.

If we get a league average performing #2C, Sam's game will come to life.  Casey will be put back into the sheltered role he needs and his game will progress because he's suddenly playing against 4th liners consistently.  And Casey's wings will also show life against the lesser talents.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Casey needs wingers who play at his speed.  We don’t have any in Buffalo other then Skinner.  

That said I do agree that Casey needs to be the 3rd line center this season and that we lack a no 2 for now.  Berglund was supposed to be ROR light and failed so far.

[Weave]

12 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Casey needs wingers who play at his speed.  We don’t have any in Buffalo other then Skinner.  

That said I do agree that Casey needs to be the 3rd line center this season and that we lack a no 2 for now.  Berglund was supposed to be ROR light and failed so far.

Sheary plays at his speed.  And if Sam can thrive with Jack, speed isn't his issue with Sam.  Casey's (and the whole 2nd line really) sole issue is he isn't ready for the role he's got and 2 more kid wingers from Rochester doesn't change that even a little.

Edited November 3, 2018 by Weave

[Taro T]

8 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

First, the good news: The depth on this team plays better hockey as a whole than the depth last season. Now, I define depth a little differently this year - last year we had the structure of two top six lines that were decent offensively, but lines 3 and 4 were an utter disaster.

Unfortunately, this year, it's been clear that if Jack, Jeff, and Jason aren't involved in the scoring, we aren't scoring. The better hockey hasn't translated to actual depth production. I projected every team's scoring from their forwards that aren't top 3 on their team in goals (sure, this makes some weird "depth players" on some teams with guys who pass the puck a lot), but the point is that we'll get a decent picture of organizational goal scoring depth, as goals are what wins hockey games. Sad face:

Outside of our team's goal scorers, we can't score goals. Again. For the millionth year in a row. Hopefully the sample size is small enough that things change, but nothing about their game to me screams that our bottom 3 lines are just waiting to bust out. 

Good news - our better-playing-than-last-year depth HAS climbed out of last place in total POINTS projected to 82 games, as Rodrigues, Kyle have 4 assists, Sam with 5. They are FOURTH worst in projected points, if last in projected goals. The discrepancy likely comes from our defensemen chipping in offensively, so that is one problem solved from last year.

We need to get these guys going though. And yes, I do know cleaner ways to make better plots, but it's so quick to use the online chart site that let me make this one. And no, I don't have the time to plot projected points. 

1st.  Thread title SHOULD be Depth Scoring (& lack thereof, AGAIN). ;)

2nd.  This team pretty much is what it is as we've all realized & most all predicted it to be now that the team doesn't have the 2C that was punted for parts & attitude.  Botterill & Housley must have REALLY believed that O'Reilly caused the whole to be less than the sum of the parts, because on paper this team is much worse than the same lineup but with O'Reilly in Sobotka's 2C role & mystery Amerk or Elie in Berglund's role.

Thing is, these guys should be pretty good next year, but like you said unless they spend some of their future capital, things won't improve much soon as Sheary & Reinhart are both guys that need someone else to drive & Mittelstadt simply isn't there yet.  At this point Okposo needs the driver too it appears.

I do expect this team to be better 2nd half, minus that major move, but it sure is tempting to make a move as playoffs ARE within reach this year & that would be too late.  (And kind of frustrating that a move isn't getting worked on AFAWK.)

[TrueBlueGED]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Casey needs wingers who play at his speed.  We don’t have any in Buffalo other then Skinner.  

That said I do agree that Casey needs to be the 3rd line center this season and that we lack a no 2 for now.  Berglund was supposed to be ROR light and failed so far.

It was always completely delusional to believe Berglund could be that. 

[TrueBlueGED]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

Sheary plays at his speed.  And if Sam can thrive with Jack, speed isn't his issue with Sam.  Casey's (and the whole 2nd line really) sole issue is he isn't ready for the role he's got and 2 more kid wingers from Rochester doesn't change that even a little.

Right. We have a giant hole in the middle of the ice and until that's fixed, whether internally through development or via trade, our non-Eichel line scoring is going to continue to struggle to score consistently. 

[Weave]

42 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Right. We have a giant hole in the middle of the ice and until that's fixed, whether internally through development or via trade, our non-Eichel line scoring is going to continue to struggle to score consistently. 

Remember when we bragged about how much center depth we have?  *swoons*

This team really needs a Kyle Turris type center for the 2nd line. *or whatever other legit 2nd line options are out there, don't care to micro analyze Turris specifically.  It's a concept.

Edited November 3, 2018 by Weave

[Sabres Fan in NS]

These are primarily kids playing a man's game.

They will mature and hopefully develop into something of substance, but for the foreseeable future the lack of secondary scoring will continue to be a big problem for the Sabres.

I am not sure that the crew in Rochester will help out much going forward.

[TrueBlueGED]

6 minutes ago, Weave said:

Remember when we bragged about how much center depth we have?  *swoons*

This team really needs a Kyle Turris type center for the 2nd line. *or whatever other legit 2nd line options are out there, don't care to micro analyze Turris specifically.  It's a concept.

We just have to be really sure the center addition isn't sad after losses. 

[Weave]

1 minute ago, TrueBlueGED said:

We just have to be really sure the center addition isn't sad after losses. 

I know.  Jack is sad enough for both lines now.

[Randall Flagg]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

Remember when we bragged about how much center depth we have?  *swoons*

This team really needs a Kyle Turris type center for the 2nd line. *or whatever other legit 2nd line options are out there, don't care to micro analyze Turris specifically.  It's a concept.

The only name I've been able to come up with is Tierney, but we need Ottawa to start sucking to be interested in selling him off, and even then he does have another year which would make them less likely I feel. But he wouldn't cost a huge amount should he be made available, and he plays good hockey. Not the best 2C, but if Casey eventually develops enough to supplant him, he's better than many 3Cs out there. And he's had a tremendous start to the year, so maybe he is a 2C. But yeah, not likely. 

I'm always looking at Tampa, who just signed Gourde to a 5 mil cap hit. I have no idea how they keep all those guys under the cap, but somebody HAS to pop free soon. Especially with Point's deal coming up, and him being their 2nd best forward for the last good while now. Tyler Johnson makes the most sense for them to move on from IMO. They'll need to address their D, and Stralman/Girardi/Coburn are like 10 mil off the books but they need to fill those spots with people. 

Namestnikov is underperforming in NY, and they're "rebuilding."

Coyle is meh in Minny right now but they're doing okay so I doubt they're interested i moving him.

I dunno. I want these guys to have the best chance to win games. I think we could make a move that doesn't screw up the long-term approach, but helps things now with Casey and the team as a whole. 

[Doohickie]

4 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Berglund was supposed to be ROR light and failed so far.

And that's what he's been:  Our shutdown center.  We needed someone to take ROR's defensive zone assignments and Bergie and Sobotka have done a creditable job at that.  For ROR's scoring I think the plan has been Mitts all along, he's just not quite ready for that yet.

1 hour ago, TrueBlueGED said:

We just have to be really sure the center addition isn't sad after losses. 

Or readily loses his passion for the game.

[GASabresIUFAN]

apparently if we bitch load enjoy and play a bad team the secondary scoring shows up. 8 EV goals with 5 from guys other then the 3Js.   Hopefully thisi the game that launches Casey for the rest of the season.

[inkman]

20 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

apparently if we bitch load enjoy 

This feels pornographic ?

[GASabresIUFAN]

12 minutes ago, inkman said:

This feels pornographic ?

Opps! Late night spelling error.  

[PerreaultForever]

Mittlestadt is coming along. Much faster than Reinhart did in his beginning. I agree he's not really a solid second center at this point but he is learning pretty quickly and shows signs. Be patient.  It's all trending upwards.

I'm also really starting to like Berglund, Larsson, Girgensens  as a unit. They fit together well as a solid quick 4th line.  

The guy who still gets me is Rodrigues. That guy just can't score period. At this point we just hope the 3rd line plays 0-0.