2018 - 2019 Lineup

[bruceleeroy]

Sheary-Eichel-okposo

Mitts-Reino-Thompson

Erod-Berglund-Sobotka

Wilson-Larrrson-Pommers-Girgs-Bailey-Baptiste-Smith-Olofson-Ogelvie-ORegan

 

McCabe-Risto

Della-Dahlin

Guhle-Bogo

Hunwick-Nelson

Baloo

[WildCard]

Sheary-Eichel-okposo

Mitts-Reino-Thompson

Erod-Berglund-Sobotka

Wilson-Larrrson-Pommers-Girgs-Bailey-Baptiste-Smith-Olofson-Ogelvie-ORegan

 

McCabe-Risto

Della-Dahlin

Guhle-Bogo

Hunwick-Nelson

Baloo

McCabe on the top pair? Bold move Cotton

[bruceleeroy]

I dont really see it as top pair necessarily, or top line for that matter more about just rolling three quality lines with the fourth to spell the pk and pp players and rolling all three d pairs fairly evenly.  And I think Risto and McCabe played ok last year while getting an obscene amount of minutes that should go down with a better bottom 3 to help out more.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Well I don't know about speed, and certainly not about special teams. Those aren't the most comprehensive stats ever posted, but a brief glance would indicate that yes, we seem to get better at even strength

 

It should be noted though that really most of that is just losing Nolan and Pouliot, which we could have done anyways

Fair enough, but Berglund and Sobotka are both faster then ROR and nearly as good in the FO circle. ROR lousy 20 goals at even strength over the last two years may be the canary in the coal mine and helped influence Jbot decision to let him go. I also think Casey replaces most if not all of ROR PP production. Edited July 3, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[IKnowPhysics]

 

@SabresStats

Even Strength 

 

 

 

Further evidence that Botterill's likely making analytics-informed, if not analytics-driven, decisions.

[Randall Flagg]

After 1.5 periods of Mitts at C Phil had to switch him and Rodrigues again. Hopefully he's more ready after the offseason of training - he looks a lot thicker in his interviews than he was. In a good way. 

[Randall Flagg]

So after this year Pominville, Moulson, and Bogosian are off the books right? We have the space to go grab Ellis and Seguin/Panarin, right?

[WildCard]

So after this year Pominville, Moulson, and Bogosian are off the books right? We have the space to go grab Ellis and Seguin/Panarin, right?

Panarin has a list of teams out there I think, and last I checked Buffalo wasn't on there. They we're Florida and California teams

 

Seguin will stay in Dallas. Unlike Tavares, he actually likes it there

[Randall Flagg]

Panarin has a list of teams out there I think, and last I checked Buffalo wasn't on there. They we're Florida and California teams

 

Seguin will stay in Dallas. Unlike Tavares, he actually likes it there

[PerreaultForever]

Sheary - Eichel - 

 

That is the only combination I am almost sure of. At least to try. 

I really don't know the St. Louis guys so not sure if they're better as wingers or down the middle. I think they are temps regardless. If any kids step up they'll be bumped down or dumped.

I also think Housely will try Reinhart at center again UNLESS Casey is ready to start as #2, but I think it more likely Casey STARTS the season in Rochester. 

 

As for D, if Dahlin is ready, I'd want him with Scandella since he's the steadiest guy we have and the best guy to learn from initially. 

 

But I will admit I have absolutely no idea. It's going to look very different from last year. And that's a good thing. 

[DarthEbriate]

Sheary - Eichel - 

 

That is the only combination I am almost sure of. At least to try. 

I really don't know the St. Louis guys so not sure if they're better as wingers or down the middle. I think they are temps regardless. If any kids step up they'll be bumped down or dumped.

I also think Housely will try Reinhart at center again UNLESS Casey is ready to start as #2, but I think it more likely Casey STARTS the season in Rochester. 

 

As for D, if Dahlin is ready, I'd want him with Scandella since he's the steadiest guy we have and the best guy to learn from initially. 

 

But I will admit I have absolutely no idea. It's going to look very different from last year. And that's a good thing. 

I'm with you, too. (exciting is hardly the word I would choose.) Until more offseason moves are made to finalize the roster, I'm seeing Mittelstadt, Thompson, Olofsson and Pilut all start the season in Rochester. One of Bailey or Baptiste, too. Probably Guhle, too. JBot doesn't see the NHL roster as fully competitive yet (nor do I... or any of us) so why keep the young guys up? Let them have fun being awesome and playing top minutes and hopefully winning down in the AHL Then, give them the call-ups during the season.

 

If you want to shop anyone, bring them up and let them get only preferential matchups... cough, cough, Nylander. Nylander can play sheltered 2nd line offensive zone starts until the trade deadline and get moved for whatever. But, overall, we now have the NHL-caliber depth to let our top prospects grow and nourish, and flourish!, down in the AHL where they belong.

 

Then, when we're ready to begin moving forward... the kids replace the Sobotkas, Larssons, Girgensons, Pominvilles, and Beaulieus of the world. Until they're ready --- let them play at the lower level.

 

Does this sacrifice another year of Eichel, Reinhart, Risto, and the first of Dahlin? Absolutely. But what else are we to do? Become amazing overnight?

 

I don't think the fans who want to win now are going to be happy with this season, but the folks who are at least content with building the foundation before attempting the roof will take solace that we're heading in a safe, improving direction. It just might be another season or two before we're ready for the playoffs. (Thankfully, we can protect the young core and just expose contracts when it's time for Seattle to expand-o-draft.)

[Thorny]

So after this year Pominville, Moulson, and Bogosian are off the books right? We have the space to go grab Ellis and Seguin/Panarin, right?

 

One more year after that for Bogo.

 

I actually like the trade. Botterill seems smart enough to me that, since he dealt O'Reilly, as good a player as he was, I have to assume there were chemistry concerns that were significant enough to necessitate a trade, and that an addition-by-subtraction effect could be in play, at least in some facets. O'Reilly is obviously the best player in the deal, but all parts considered (the 5 pieces, acquiring cap relief in the nearer future, chemistry concerns) create the combined value Botterill was looking for. 

 

In a line-up projection, I'll be rather optimistic with Thompson, as I very much like him as a prospect and like where his head is at, based on recent interviews. Botterill seemed to be after the 3rd pick in the draft, I personally thought he was after Tkachuk, and I think he envisions Thompson as having the potential to fulfill a similar role next to Mittelstadt, as the former. Maybe not right away, but as I said, optimistic. He's a big body, and with some development could be of the same mold. He has spoken to his ability to play all 3 forward positions, and played LW in College.

 

Sheary - Eichel - Reinhart

Thompson - Mittelstadt - Okposo

Sobotka - Berglund - Baptiste

WIlson - Rodrigues - Pominville

 

Scandella - Ristolainen

Dahlin - Bogosian

Guhle - Nelson

 

Hutton

Ullmark

 

Hopefully one of the younger guys pushes out Pominville. I'm hoping that third line can provide valuable defensive minutes, with line two benefiting from a more sheltered role. Goaltending should be improved.

 

I'm guessing Dahlin plays on the left, so I'm absolutely terrified that as of right now, Bogosian appears to be penciled in to a top 4 role yet again. If Botterill only makes one more move this offseason, I would hope it would include the acquisition of a RHD to bump him down. 

[Huckleberry]

Sheary - Eichel - Okposo

Berglund - Reinhart  - Thompson

Oloffson - Mittelstadt - Pominville

Svobotka - Girgensons - Baptiste

O'regan 

 

Dhalin - risto

Scandella - Bogo

McCabe - Nelson

Hunwick 

 

Hutton

Ullmark

 

I put Thompson there, but might as well be Bailey / Baptiste.

[dudacek]

 

 

I don't think the fans who want to win now are going to be happy with this season, but the folks who are at least content with building the foundation before attempting the roof will take solace that we're heading in a safe, improving direction. It just might be another season or two before we're ready for the playoffs. (Thankfully, we can protect the young core and just expose contracts when it's time for Seattle to expand-o-draft.)

 

I can see this applying to Nylander, Dahlin, Mittlestadt, Asplund, Guhle and Thompson, because age, but they are our best talents.

And Pilut, Hickey, Baptiste, Bailey, Ullmark, Olafsson, Smith, Oglevie and O'Regan are all 22 and older. They're men and this year is the right time to make the jump.

 

I like adding Carter, and Sobotka and Berglund to lean on, but I want to see kids start backfilling the spaces behind Sam and Jack and Risto.

 

I'd like to see an open competition with five of them on the team to start and maybe up to eight as the season winds down.

It will be good for chemistry and we have to start moving them into the lineup if we are going to move forward.

 

The 1986 Canadiens had as rookies Kjell Dahlin, Stephane Richer, Petr Svoboda, Brian Skrudland, Sergio Momesso, Claude Lemeiux, Shayne Corson and Patrick Roy

The 2008 Blackhawks had Toews, Kane, Crawford, Hjallmarsson, Brouwer, Bolland, Versteeg and Byfuglien all arrive that year.

Edited July 3, 2018 by dudacek

[Randall Flagg]

I can see this applying to Nylander, Dahlin, Mittlestadt, Asplund, Guhle and Thompson, because age, but they are our best talents.

And Pilut, Hickey, Baptiste, Bailey, Ullmark, Olafsson, Smith, Oglevie and O'Regan are all 22 and older. They're men and this year is the right time to make the jump.

 

I like adding Carter, and Sobotka and Berglund to lean on, but I want to see kids start backfilling the spaces behind Sam and Jack and Risto.

 

I'd like to see an open competition with five of them on the team to start and maybe up to eight as the season winds down.

It will be good for chemistry and we have to start moving them into the lineup if we are going to move forward.

 

The 1986 Canadiens had as rookies Kjell Dahlin, Stephane Richer, Petr Svoboda, Brian Skrudland, Sergio Momesso, Claude Lemeiux, Shayne Corson and Patrick Roy

The 2008 Blackhawks had Toews, Kane, Crawford, Hjallmarsson, Brouwer, Bolland and Byfuglien all arrive that year.

I'm going to be pretty optimistic if Larsson/Pominville/even more get beat out fair and square by some of those guys. 

[Huckleberry]

I forgot Erod lol

[GASabresIUFAN]

I can see this applying to Nylander, Dahlin, Mittlestadt, Asplund, Guhle and Thompson, because age, but they are our best talents.

And Pilut, Hickey, Baptiste, Bailey, Ullmark, Olafsson, Smith, Oglevie and O'Regan are all 22 and older. They're men and this year is the right time to make the jump.

 

I like adding Carter, and Sobotka and Berglund to lean on, but I want to see kids start backfilling the spaces behind Sam and Jack and Risto.

 

I'd like to see an open competition with five of them on the team to start and maybe up to eight as the season winds down.

It will be good for chemistry and we have to start moving them into the lineup if we are going to move forward.

 

The 1986 Canadiens had as rookies Kjell Dahlin, Stephane Richer, Petr Svoboda, Brian Skrudland, Sergio Momesso, Claude Lemeiux, Shayne Corson and Patrick Roy

The 2008 Blackhawks had Toews, Kane, Crawford, Hjallmarsson, Brouwer, Bolland, Versteeg and Byfuglien all arrive that year.

I’m with you. I want as many kids as possible on next season’s team. If Otto, Thompson, Smith, Guhle and Olofsson show they can do it in preseason, I want them in Buffalo. I’ve seen enough of Pommers, Girgensons and Larsson. The kids will make mistakes, but they should be much more fun to watch.

 

Sheary Eichel Reinhart

Olofsson Sobotka Okposo

Erod Mittelstadt Thompson

Wilson Berglund Baptiste

 

Scandella Dahlin

McCabe Ristolainen

Guhle Bogo

Hunwick Nelson

 

Hutton

Ullmark

Edited July 3, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[Randall Flagg]

I’m with you. I want as many kids as possible on next season’s team. If Otto, Thompson, Smith, Guhle and Olofsson show they can do it in preseason, I want them in Buffalo. I’ve seen enough of Pommers, Girgensons and Larsson. The kids will make mistakes, but they should be much more fun to watch.

 

Sheary Eichel Reinhart

Olofsson Sobotka Okposo

Erod Mittelstadt Thompson

Wilson Berglund Baptiste

Who is Otto, friend?

[GASabresIUFAN]

Who is Otto, friend?

“Otto” Pilut

[Randall Flagg]

“Otto” Pilut

Ohhhh. 

 

We've read good things about him from development camp. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Ohhhh. 

We've read good things about him from development camp.

 

Jbot said he’ll likely start in Rochester, but if he adjusts quickly in NA, I can see him forcing his way into the lineup sooner then later. It’s one of the reason I placed him so high on our prospect ranking chart.

[Derrico]

I’m with you. I want as many kids as possible on next season’s team. If Otto, Thompson, Smith, Guhle and Olofsson show they can do it in preseason, I want them in Buffalo. I’ve seen enough of Pommers, Girgensons and Larsson. The kids will make mistakes, but they should be much more fun to watch.

 

Sheary Eichel Reinhart

Olofsson Sobotka Okposo

Erod Mittelstadt Thompson

Wilson Berglund Baptiste

 

Scandella Dahlin

McCabe Ristolainen

Guhle Bogo

Hunwick Nelson

 

Hutton

Ullmark

I would switch Berglund with Sobotka but I don't mind this lineup.

[Randall Flagg]

Housley's usage nuance has me worried that he's just going to give ROR's exact minutes to Berglund, whose metrics and role on a good but non-playoff team suggest he's barely a 3rd liner. Yes, who scores goals, but I'm accounting for that in goals that are scored on him too. Their relative GF% are 10% apart, in ROR's favor. (This is a slight alteration to pi's claimed TRPM, which basically already existed) That is a huge number. 

I really think the guy has no ounce of awareness for stuff like that. It's absolutely something that could make this team worse than it was. 

Edited July 3, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[dudacek]

Housley's usage nuance has me worried that he's just going to give ROR's exact minutes to Berglund, whose metrics and role on a good but non-playoff team suggest he's barely a 3rd liner. Yes, who scores goals, but I'm accounting for that in goals that are scored on him too. Their relative GF% are 10% apart, in ROR's favor. (This is a slight alteration to pi's claimed TRPM, which basically already existed) That is a huge number.

I really think the guy has no ounce of awareness for stuff like that. It's absolutely something that could make this team worse than it was.

 

I’d love to witness a conversation between you and Housley - or any NHL coach, actually - on the topic of player usage.

I’m hoping the Athletic ventures into this territory, but I suspect they will be blocked because the teams regard this as proprietary information.

 

I think there are likely a few dinosaurs out there, but the past 5 or 6 years have seen significant change.

By and large I believe there is more considered thought going on in hockey departments than we give them credit for. I’d love to get insight into what it is.

Edited July 3, 2018 by dudacek

[Randall Flagg]

I’d love to witness a conversation between you and Housley - or any NHL coach, actually - on the topic of player usage.

I’m hoping the Athletic ventures into this territory, but I suspect they will be blocked because the teams regard this as proprietary information.

 

I think there are likely a few dinosaurs out there, but the past 5 or 6 years have seen significant change.

By and large I believe there is more considered thought going on in hockey departments than we give them credit for. I’d love to get insight into what it is.

I'd love to hear them talk about it too. All we can really glean is from hearing them use coach speak in press conferences, which doesn't shed a lot of good light on Phil, but that also shouldn't be used as serious evidence. 

 

Like, Berglund and most likely Sobotka are legitimately large upgrades to two players in the bottom six, even I happily will concede that. We used a LOT of terrible players down there. I just totally see Berglund spending the entire season as ROR, or as Jack's wing, and what I mean by usage is that Phil has shown that it takes a remarkable amount of getting cratered (far more than you can take and still play good hockey as a team) to get him to move off of some things. I could see it take us out of playoff hopes by Thanksgiving again before he changes things. 

 

Whereas when I watch Toronto, there is a clear and obvious directive and methodology for every single forward on that roster. I might not agree with Babs in every case, but I watched him P.Kane with Marner until Marner got his legs, and he had huge amounts of confidence because it let him score a lot of points early in his career, while insulating Matthews just enough to absolutely devastate other teams (that line scored almost 70% of the goals at ES), actively keeping him from Jack when it's clear Jack's on that night, and putting Kadri in tough situations ONLY because he showed he can still produce in them. While doing this, he's free to and actively uses line promotion to coax effort out of enigmatic Nylander and keep his speeding kids like Johnsson and Kapanen out there feasting on and tiring out whatever is left after the other guys do their work. You can literally see the balancing act when you watch them and it makes a team able to hide their weak defensive roster behind an ELC-based 3rd place finish in offense. It's incredible. I'm not saying we have the talent to do this the same way but Jack and ROR and Reinhart are not far enough behind Auston, Mitch, and Kadri to account for these differences - for all three of them to lose their share of goals like tank forwards do. 

 

It's like Phil (and Dan and plenty of mediocre coaches) have their prescribed conventions and don't even watch the games. Risto plays his minutes because he's a good D and can still stand after game 50 of the same, regardless of what happens to the team while he's out there doing that.