Steven Stamkos stays in Tampa Bay, 8.5mil x 8yrs

[TrueBlueGED]

About 10.6% but it was also coming off the CBA agreement where it was known the cap would have scheduled jumps. The next season it was $64.3M (9.8%) and then it jumped to $70.2M (8.9%).

We're not at the point where the expectation is a significant jump in the coming years (that could change) which is something I accounted for when projecting $8M and $6M respectively. $8M would be 10.7% of the current salary cap.

 

Also factor in that it's somewhere between likely and highly likely that neither Eichel nor Reinhart match the production or accolades either player had to that point and I think $8M and $6M is somewhat of a ceiling for their second contracts.

 

You don't think it's likely they bank a couple of 60 point seasons? I'll be extremely disappointed if they don't. Do I think we're bound for a Cup and Conn Smythe in the next two years? Well, I wouldn't bet on winning it, but I think it's quite possible we're real contenders in the last year of their ELCs.

[Hoss]

You don't think it's likely they bank a couple of 60 point seasons? I'll be extremely disappointed if they don't. Do I think we're bound for a Cup and Conn Smythe in the next two years? Well, I wouldn't bet on winning it, but I think it's quite possible we're real contenders in the last year of their ELCs.

I would be very disappointed if Eichel didn't have two consecutive sixty-point seasons after this year, but I won't be disappointed if he's not the captain and Conn Smythe winner of a Stanley Cup winner within the next two seasons. It's unreasonable to expect either of them to even approach Kane's numbers, though.

 

My expectations for Reinhart are still a Patrick Sharp-type career but with an earlier and longer prime.

[TrueBlueGED]

I would be very disappointed if Eichel didn't have two consecutive sixty-point seasons after this year, but I won't be disappointed if he's not the captain and Conn Smythe winner of a Stanley Cup winner within the next two seasons. It's unreasonable to expect either of them to even approach Kane's numbers, though.

 

My expectations for Reinhart are still a Patrick Sharp-type career but with an earlier and longer prime.

I fully expect Eichel to get to Kane's 2nd/3rd season numbers (adjusted for reduced league scoring, of course). Reinhart probably not, but I think he turns out a fair deal better than Sharp I'd you're counting all-around game.

 

Now I now why you want Stamkos so bad: you hate our 2nd overall picks :p ;)

[WildCard]

 

I think Eichel will be 10+ mil and Reinhart will be 8+

 

At least.

Right off the ELC? I'm not so sure. Down the road? Definitely

 

And Hoss, look at how abysmal that defense is likely to be.

Edited June 4, 2016 by WildCard

[Thorny]

Right off the ELC? I'm not so sure. Down the road? Definitely

And Hoss, look at how abysmal that defense is likely to be.

Well that depends how good the draftee and Guhle turn out to be, right? If that top LHD is Chychrun or Juolevi and they turn into a true top pairing guy, things are looking pretty good, depending on Guhle's (and McCabe's) development.

 

Most scouts are saying the top D in this draft are sure-fire top 4. So if we draft one we'll have to hope they end up on the higher end of that scale.

[TrueBlueGED]

Right off the ELC? I'm not so sure. Down the road? Definitely

Tarasenko just got $7.5M right off his ELC. Given three years time, some mild cap growth, and Eichel playing a more important position...it's not out of the question. Stamkos got $7.5M right off his ELC, and Eichel had a better rookie year, so depending how the next two seasons play out, it's not crazy.

[Thorny]

Tarasenko just got $7.5M right off his ELC. Given three years time, some mild cap growth, and Eichel playing a more important position...it's not out of the question. Stamkos got $7.5M right off his ELC, and Eichel had a better rookie year, so depending how the next two seasons play out, it's not crazy.

It's not completely out of the question, but I wouldn't count that unlikely egg as hatched when contemplating the proposition of adding someone of Stamkos's caliber.

 

Particularly when as Hoss said, there are ways to maneuver, one example being E. Kane.

[TrueBlueGED]

It's not completely out of the question, but I wouldn't count that unlikely egg as hatched when contemplating the proposition of adding someone of Stamkos's caliber.

 

Particularly when as Hoss said, there are ways to maneuver, one example being E. Kane.

I wouldn't bet on Eichel getting that much off his ELC, but I am anticipating around $8.5 million. Don't disappoint me Jack!

 

Anyway yea, if we sign Stamkos, Kane's time here is officially on countdown.

[Thorny]

I wouldn't bet on Eichel getting that much off his ELC, but I am anticipating around $8.5 million. Don't disappoint me Jack!

Anyway yea, if we sign Stamkos, Kane's time here is officially on countdown.

I quite like Kane as a player, but it certainly does seem like he would be a potential down the road casualty of Stamkos signing here. I can live with that, though. It a large amount of money coming off the books right when Jack and Sam's ELCs finish. Obviously GMTM is well aware.

[Drunkard]

It's 2019. I have a feeling even fewer of the current roster players will be here than I projected.

 

On their second contracts? Not quite sure on that. They'd both need to have two consecutive seasons of at least 70 points to get there, in my opinion.

I agree. I think league average is something like 20% roster turnover each year. I think that future lineup looks pretty good adding Stamkos, some prospects graduating to the big club, and subtracting out the aging vets (Gionta, Molson, and Gorges).

[Norcal]

If Eichel does end up with that type of deal right out of his ELC it likely means his production calls for it so in that case i'd be all for it. Go Jack!

That being $7.5 mil

[Hoss]

And Hoss, look at how abysmal that defense is likely to be.

It certainly doesn't excite me but we have no idea what type of defensemen Risto, McCabe, a potential draft pick, Guhle and others will be then. It's not the defense we'll have. A projection.

[WildCard]

Because I think the "well we were only 26th (we were tied for 25th but whatever) in goals scored last year so we obviously need Stamkos!" argument is total ######...

 

Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart alone scored 24 and 23 goals respectively. Let's say that next year they top out at a modest 33goals and 30 respectively.  Not a big increase for those two. That gives you 16 more goals on the year if everyone else remains constant including players like Moulson, Kane, and Ennis who didn't even play most of the season. That increase would tie us for 17th in goals scored without adding Stamkos. Now let's say we add a defender who manages to score more than the 4 goals we got from Franson... let's say the guy scored 9 goals, nothing even that crazy but Barrie scored 13 so seems fair. That's an additional 5 goals without again accounting for Moulson or Ennis (sorry I don't buy the theory that Moulson sucks). That puts us up to 15th or a playoff spot.  The difference between 15th and 6th? in goals, 14 goals. I personally believe that Larsson, Moulson, and Ennis can get an extra 15 goals between them. So when people claim our scoring is horrendous and such as justification for Stamkos, it is smoke and mirrors or you really believe Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart peaked in their rookie years.

 

I again would be happy to have Stamkos but at anything over 9million, I am out. He's simply never going to live up to that unless he signed a shorter deal like 4 years and then the cap would have to increase to decrease that hit percentage.  What if next year he scores 35 goals and 40 assists? Is that worth 9mil? What about in 2 more years when you have Reinhart and Jack up new deals? I like Stamkos but his play of late is really worrisome to toss a ton of money at him.

Great post. 

 

Not to mention the average age of our top 5 scorers is 21. Then throw in the fact that the opening day roster had ten players who weren't there before, not including the head coach. To backup LGR's comments, the lack of scoring had nothing to do with the fact that they don't have enough scorers. 

And I'm still leery about the blood clot issues. 

More good stuff.

 

I get the skepticism about the blood clots, but he's been cleared and it's not a genetic condition with him. He should be fine

 

This isn't even a comparable in my mind.  Drury and Briere were the #1 and #2 center on the team and Captain and Assistant Captain. ROR and Jack are the #1 and #2 centers on the team ROR is the Assistant Captain and Gionta is the Captain. My point of my post was this team will not be 25th in goals scored again next year. You can argue Stamkos is good and we need him but pointing to that one stat is a complete bs argument unless as a poster it assumes Jack Eichel and Samson Reinhart will never score more goals than they did as rookies.

 

So in you scenario it would be like saying Kane can score 40, Reinhart can be Pommers with 30 and Ennis can be Roy and play center and get 30.  Those would be closer comparables and they leave out Jack Eichel and Ryan O'Reilly.

 

Not to mention as has been discussed ad nauseam Roy, Pominville, and Vanek lacked legit leadership qualities something that Reinhart, Eichel, O'Reilly, Gionta, don't.

He may not be, but he has been either Captain or Assistant Captain for every team he played for going back to 2012. Kootney and the U18 and U20 Canadian Team. 

The difference between TB and the 12th team in scoring that year was 11 goals... over 82 games. So not really much of an argument for anyone to make there. It really doesn't matter. Also they scored 232 then and 224 this yeas so again 8 goals over 82 games barely registers statistically and does not account for a drop of 40% in goals scored by Stamkos between the 2 years.

 

Stamkos is still and effective player and with better linemates such as Reinhart or ROR I think he could hit those numbers. The question is should we pay a guy who needs those linemates to hit those numbers big bucks and for how long can he hit those numbers even with good linemates?

Liger is killin' it in this thread  :worthy:

 

I will say this though, and maybe someone else already mentioned it (nfreeman and True were discussing linemates). Doesn't he already have great linemates? In fact, maybe arguably better linemates? Certainly better than a rookie Sam Reinhart

 

Can I go on record saying I'd gladly take 1 cup, and 3 finals appearances, all while having the joy of watching these great players make the playoffs every year? Good enough for me.

 

By the same token as people saying we can't know that Stamkos will be able to return to his prior form, one can't know that he won't. He can very potentially return to 09-13 form. He may not. We don't know. But he'll certainly still be as good as this year for several years, and he was a top 10 goal scorer

 

I don't think so, Stamkos is more of a pure sniper, don't see Eichel scoring 50, although it's possible.

Pittsburgh had a weird timeline. They started brilliantly; their roster construction was beautiful and it showed in 2 Cup appearances and a win. Then, well we all remember that, right? They were miserable year in and year out. Well, maybe not miserable, but highly underachieving. They continuously mortgaged the future for band aide solutions and went after the same type of talent again and again. It never worked. They got their depth back and a solid defense and boom, back in the Cup. 

 

I mean, you're right in that we don't know what he will do. But every single stat shows his decline in production. And every stat for players his age show a gradual decline in production. It is much more of a risk to say he will come back to form, or even maintain it, than to say his decline will continue

 

I bet Jack hits 50. 

 

And I'm not meaning to target you in this thread, Thorny. You just happen to have the exact opposite opinion as me in this matter  :lol:

 

If we win one cup every single contract on that roster is worth every penny.

While I agree, I'd rather not be in the position of 1 Cup or none. 

 

 

If you take a look at how the Blackhawks cap structure is currently there's a good chance a player like Kane will not be here.

Basing off the lines they used in their last playoff game this season:

 

Panik ($975K) - Toews ($10.5M) - Kane ($10.5M)

Panarin ($812K) - Anisimov ($3.3M) - Teravainen ($894K)

Ladd ($2.8M) - Kruger ($1.5M) - Hossa ($5.3M)

Desjardins ($800K) - Shaw ($2M) - Weise ($717K)

 

Keith ($5.5M) - Seabrook ($5.8M)

van Riemsdyk ($925K) - Hjalmarsson ($4.1M)

Gustafsson ($600K) - Rundblad ($1M)

 

Crawford ($6M) - Darling ($587K)

 

$1.1M in retained salary (Scuderi). Bickell ($4M), Ehrhoff ($1.3M) scratched.

 

That's $40.1M for forwards, $17.9M for defense and $6.6M for goalies.

In my Sabres scenario we see $57.8M for forwads, $17.9M for defense and $6.4M for goalies.

 

So considering this Blackhawks team wasn't to the cap and I tried my best to keep real names of current players in the mix for my Sabres lineup it's not insanely far off. Blackhawks playoff lineup wasn't to the cap and the cap will go up. If the Sabres want to make it work they'll have tough decisions in the coming years (Kane, other free agent spending, depth spending) but can make it work. They'll need to hit on some late-rounders and/or college/European free agents.

 

I don't think it's going to take a lot to manage this. The cap increase (or lack thereof) will be a huge factor.

See, I really, really missed these posts. 

 

You don't think it's likely they bank a couple of 60 point seasons? I'll be extremely disappointed if they don't. Do I think we're bound for a Cup and Conn Smythe in the next two years? Well, I wouldn't bet on winning it, but I think it's quite possible we're real contenders in the last year of their ELCs.

I would be very disappointed if Eichel didn't have two consecutive sixty-point seasons after this year, but I won't be disappointed if he's not the captain and Conn Smythe winner of a Stanley Cup winner within the next two seasons. It's unreasonable to expect either of them to even approach Kane's numbers, though.

 

My expectations for Reinhart are still a Patrick Sharp-type career but with an earlier and longer prime.

Yeah, 70 point season are not happening for two sophomores in this league. 

 

Sharp as in style of play, or production?

 

Tarasenko just got $7.5M right off his ELC. Given three years time, some mild cap growth, and Eichel playing a more important position...it's not out of the question. Stamkos got $7.5M right off his ELC, and Eichel had a better rookie year, so depending how the next two seasons play out, it's not crazy.

More good stuff. I didn't know that. Well then, I think he could hit Hoss' prediction contract

 

[3putt]

I wonder if the pens fans were worried about chemistry, cap, and Sydney's feelings when the got Kessel Bonino and Hagelin.  All of which took assets to acquire.  Just wondering. 

[WildCard]

I wonder if the pens fans were worried about chemistry, cap, and Sydney's feelings when the got Kessel Bonino and Hagelin. All of which took assets to acquire. Just wondering.

The first moves they made that worked out in what? 7 years? Perron was terrific too. And Kessel took time adjust and yes, there were numerous articles on his chemistry with whichever center he was going to play with.

[3putt]

It worked dinit?  Or should that be in the other thread?

[LGR4GM]

I wonder if the pens fans were worried about chemistry, cap, and Sydney's feelings when the got Kessel Bonino and Hagelin. All of which took assets to acquire. Just wondering.

Quick question there for ya, do any of those players make the most money on the team? What's that? Bonino and Haglin clock in at 5.9 million and Kessel is at 6.8mil so no they don't?

 

Just wondering cuz, and you're gonna love this, Steven Stamkos would cost at least 10 if not 11 million making him by far the highest paid player on the team. By my math Haglin, kessel, and Bonino cost 12.7mil, I only mention it because your analogy doesn't making any flipping sense.

 

In 1 scenario you're paying a guy lots of money for a long time, in the other you're paying 3 guys less money each for less time.

Edited June 5, 2016 by LGR4GM

[JJFIVEOH]

I wanted Kessel when he was available in Toronto. And I'd still take him and his salary over Stamkos and what he'll end up making.

[3putt]

Quick question there for ya, do any of those players make the most money on the team? What's that? Bonino and Haglin clock in at 5.9 million and Kessel is at 6.8mil so no they don't?

 

Just wondering cuz, and you're gonna love this, Steven Stamkos would cost at least 10 if not 11 million making him by far the highest paid player on the team. By my math Haglin, kessel, and Bonino cost 12.7mil, I only mention it because your analogy doesn't making any flipping sense.

 

In 1 scenario you're paying a guy lots of money for a long time, in the other you're paying 3 guys less money each for less time.

No.  You are correct that Kessel isnt the highest paid player.  But the move to acquire the 3 puts their ability to retain their players as constituted in jeopardy.  Malkin trade rumours. Letang.  But right now the fan base doesn't care. Win game 3 then 4.  Then worry about the rest.  

[LGR4GM]

No. You are correct that Kessel isnt the highest paid player. But the move to acquire the 3 puts their ability to retain their players as constituted in jeopardy. Malkin trade rumours. Letang. But right now the fan base doesn't care. Win game 3 then 4. Then worry about the rest.

No it doesn't. The rest of their core is signed long term. Trade Fleury and fill out the bottom guys with cheap players. Only like 4 of the pens need new deals. That team is also older, been a cup contender for years or on the cusp. It isn't the same. There is no league anology for this. Again, I like Stamkos but comparing signing him to being like Pitt just didn't work. It also doesn't work because Stamkos is 1 asset taking up the value of 3 in your scenario.

[3putt]

No it doesn't. The rest of their core is signed long term. Trade Fleury and fill out the bottom guys with cheap players. Only like 4 of the pens need new deals. That team is also older, been a cup contender for years or on the cusp. It isn't the same. There is no league anology for this. Again, I like Stamkos but comparing signing him to being like Pitt just didn't work. It also doesn't work because Stamkos is 1 asset taking up the value of 3 in your scenario.

Actually it does. Adding Stamkos is nothing but cap hit. You lose no prospects, picks or roster players. Immediately you make your team better with no subtraction. He, or someone like him (who is not available) instantly transforms your team. It makes you a potential destination for a vet looking for a ring and allows you to manage prospects to either bolster your d or develop them to take the place of cap casualties down the road. I think if your are trying to transform the identity of the franchise a cap hit is the least painful way to do it. I also am not on the Stamkos bandwagon, but I think there is a sound argument for acquiring a player of his ilk.

[pi2000]

Well that depends how good the draftee and Guhle turn out to be, right? If that top LHD is Chychrun or Juolevi and they turn into a true top pairing guy, things are looking pretty good, depending on Guhle's (and McCabe's) development.

 

Most scouts are saying the top D in this draft are sure-fire top 4. So if we draft one we'll have to hope they end up on the higher end of that scale.

I'd throw Borgen in the mix on D as well.

[Thorny]

I mean, you're right in that we don't know what he will do. But every single stat shows his decline in production. And every stat for players his age show a gradual decline in production. It is much more of a risk to say he will come back to form, or even maintain it, than to say his decline will continue

 

I bet Jack hits 50. 

 

And I'm not meaning to target you in this thread, Thorny. You just happen to have the exact opposite opinion as me in this matter  :lol:

 

Haha ya, we are doppelgängers on this Stamkos issue :lol:

 

I see 50 as pretty unlikely for Jack. How many players score 50 nowadays? Just Ovechkin. It's really only pure goal scorers. Eichel isn't the type of player to, like Oveckin, have a 50 goal, 21 assist season. If Jack gets 50 goals, he's going to have something like 60 assists. A 110 point season would be exceptional.

 

The only guy right now in a league close to that, piling up near 50 while still having more assists, is Patrick Kane. He had 46G, 60A this year for 106 points. Could Jack do something like that? It's possible. Getting to 50 goals? Outside chance, but wouldn't bank on it.

[WildCard]

It worked dinit?  Or should that be in the other thread?

It worked now, not the past 7 years. Does a 1/7 success rate sound good to you? Sounds like luck to me. More of a brute force matching than anything else

 

Quick question there for ya, do any of those players make the most money on the team? What's that? Bonino and Haglin clock in at 5.9 million and Kessel is at 6.8mil so no they don't?

 

Just wondering cuz, and you're gonna love this, Steven Stamkos would cost at least 10 if not 11 million making him by far the highest paid player on the team. By my math Haglin, kessel, and Bonino cost 12.7mil, I only mention it because your analogy doesn't making any flipping sense.

 

In 1 scenario you're paying a guy lots of money for a long time, in the other you're paying 3 guys less money each for less time.

Exactly. That, and none of those guys are coming in to be the man. They're all purely complementary pieces. Hell, Kessel has proven he can only be that. Crosby has no misconceptions about whose team that is. This isn't his sophomore year, and they're not bringing a 25 year old Joe Thornton in.

 

No.  You are correct that Kessel isnt the highest paid player.  But the move to acquire the 3 puts their ability to retain their players as constituted in jeopardy.  Malkin trade rumours. Letang.  But right now the fan base doesn't care. Win game 3 then 4.  Then worry about the rest.  

Malkin trade rumors have nothing to do with their cap. He's been rumored to be traded for going on 5 years now, because they consistently were under performing and he was always out 

 

No it doesn't. The rest of their core is signed long term. Trade Fleury and fill out the bottom guys with cheap players. Only like 4 of the pens need new deals. That team is also older, been a cup contender for years or on the cusp. It isn't the same. There is no league anology for this. Again, I like Stamkos but comparing signing him to being like Pitt just didn't work. It also doesn't work because Stamkos is 1 asset taking up the value of 3 in your scenario.

Thank you

 

Actually it does. Adding Stamkos is nothing but cap hit. You lose no prospects, picks or roster players. Immediately you make your team better with no subtraction. He, or someone like him (who is not available) instantly transforms your team. It makes you a potential destination for a vet looking for a ring and allows you to manage prospects to either bolster your d or develop them to take the place of cap casualties down the road. I think if your are trying to transform the identity of the franchise a cap hit is the least painful way to do it. I also am not on the Stamkos bandwagon, but I think there is a sound argument for acquiring a player of his ilk.

I think there is a sound argument for it. These 18 pages have been very fun. Does adding him bring some sort of legitimacy to the worse-than-Russia Buffalo? Probably. I don't believe vets were lining up to play for Pittsburgh and Chicago because of some big FA though. They were, and are, doing it because of their cores and ability to win.

 

IMO, adding Stamkos is more than a cap hit. 

 

Haha ya, we are doppelgängers on this Stamkos issue :lol:

 

I see 50 as pretty unlikely for Jack. How many players score 50 nowadays? Just Ovechkin. It's really only pure goal scorers. Eichel isn't the type of player to, like Oveckin, have a 50 goal, 21 assist season. If Jack gets 50 goals, he's going to have something like 60 assists. A 110 point season would be exceptional.

 

The only guy right now in a league close to that, piling up near 50 while still having more assists, is Patrick Kane. He had 46G, 60A this year for 106 points. Could Jack do something like that? It's possible. Getting to 50 goals? Outside chance, but wouldn't bank on it.

Hard to argue that, honestly. Ovechkin is a top 5 pure scorer this league has ever seen, not sure Jack will ever hit his level unless this league really changes. Hopefully they do

[Taro T]

It worked now, not the past 7 years. Does a 1/7 success rate sound good to you? Sounds like luck to me. More of a brute force matching than anything else

 

 

Exactly. That, and none of those guys are coming in to be the man. They're all purely complementary pieces. Hell, Kessel has proven he can only be that. Crosby has no misconceptions about whose team that is. This isn't his sophomore year, and they're not bringing a 25 year old Joe Thornton in.

 

 

Malkin trade rumors have nothing to do with their cap. He's been rumored to be traded for going on 5 years now, because they consistently were under performing and he was always out 

 

 

Thank you

 

 

I think there is a sound argument for it. These 18 pages have been very fun. Does adding him bring some sort of legitimacy to the worse-than-Russia Buffalo? Probably. I don't believe vets were lining up to play for Pittsburgh and Chicago because of some big FA though. They were, and are, doing it because of their cores and ability to win.

 

IMO, adding Stamkos is more than a cap hit. 

 

 

Hard to argue that, honestly. Ovechkin is a top 5 pure scorer this league has ever seen, not sure Jack will ever hit his level unless this league really changes. Hopefully they do

Liger's only been here 5 years? Seems longer. :p