Steven Stamkos stays in Tampa Bay, 8.5mil x 8yrs

[WildCard]

@WC

1) reading your third graph, points per 60.

 

=> Ah I see. The thing is, Kane brings much more than just points to the table, whereas the only element of Stamkos' game that we praise is his pure scoring ability. 

 

2) pretty much everyone in that same graph has a three-year downward trend. Hall and Kane are having bounce back years, why can't Stamkos?

 

=> That corresponds to league wide scoring drought. I think the more accurate graph is his effectiveness compared to his teammates. Also, only him and Crosby have had declines like that, and Crosby has had multiple coaches (3, I believe), and serious concussions issues. 

 

3) see above and remember my question about whether this season marks a blip or a trend? The difference in the previous season is not huge and the previous year he actually improved. Check out Hall last year, or Seguin in 2013 to see what I'm getting at.

 

=> He declined, greatly, had a slight rebound, then two straight years of decline. I think 3/4 years of declining is not a blip, but a trend.

 

And the shooting chart at the end seems to indicate this year may be a blip as well.

4) the second graph shows very consistent points per 60 prior to falling off a bit last year and lot this year. Give his age that shouldn't be expected, blue makes a good point about the injury. Coaching is another question.

 

=> I can except the injury, I don't buy into the coaching though. They had the best offense in the league last year, and he still declined, in every single category. How

does that happen?

 

5) he is not past his prime. That should not happen for another three to five years. He may be past his peak. Cooper brought significant change when he brought, what , six players from the minors with him? Again, your case is really based on his performance this year. Through this year out, or watch him bounce back like Kane next year and the graph will tell a completely different story.

 

=> I disagree. Your argument is that Cooper has brought change. Why is this not a bounce back year for Stamkos then? By all means he should have adapted to a year under Cooper, and his teammates, and yet he still declines. 

Edited March 21, 2016 by WildCard

[TrueBlueGED]

Beat me to the edit. Everyone did well last year, and he still declines. I wish he would stay in Tampa one more year, just to see if he declines again or levels out under Cooper and the same roster. I think he'd still decline.

 

How much do you attribute his decline to his leg injury, and not just him being past his prime? Does his poor shot selection really have to do with his leg?

I think he'll level out to about where he was last year, this year is a poor anomaly IMO. I really have a hard time seeing him morph into a 55-60 point player at 26.

 

Hard to say exactly how much of it is the leg, but his even strength scoring rates since then are clear. His PP scoring hasn't gone down nearly as much, so I put it on the leg more than age. I haven't dissected shot charts (I may at some point), but qualitative assessments from Tampa fans have him as being far less aggressive at driving the net and sticking to more perimeter play, both with and without the puck. I think the overall numbers corroborate those visual observations.

 

The real questions are how much of that is mental versus physical, and whether either can be fixed. I'd buy the physical aspect for explaining last year given it was such a gruesome injury, but this year being worse is hard on that particular explanation. If it's mental, who knows if he ever gets it back? I could just as easily see him getting over it as I could him never fully trusting it. I also think you could craft a reasonable argument that it was both last year--leg not 100% and he didn't fully trust it. Then you could take it a step further to write off this year as just bad for the team in general. Combining those you could talk yourself into him returning to pre-injury form. Some have probably already done so. But for me, considering the need to bet a franchise cornerstone size contract on it, that's a tough sell(and that's without getting into my assessment of team need on the blue line).

[TrueBlueGED]

Last season was a pretty normal blip for a top centre in his 20s - the 80-90 point guy coughs up a 73 for some reason. Perreault went five years between 100-point seasons. This year is not normal and is reason for concentrate. You are right to question the leg. His numbers last year with the leg were much better. Why? Did it get worse?

I don't think we can know. It's up to the Sabres to do the Intel to discover the best answer.

 

Many people said ROR was carried by McKinnon, and was a money-hungry cancer. There was evidence supporting that argument, but thos people were wrong, Murray was right. This is how he and his scouts will earn their money.

1) I really like your peak vs. prime terminology from point 5 in your response to WC. Love it, even. That's a great way to talk about a player's offensive production declining in their late 20s without making it sound like a player is done (or the same, for that matter).

 

2) I don't interpret last year as a normal blip because of this year. If this year trended upward, I wouldn't be concerned at all about last year. But this year is even worse...though I don't think this year is proof he's falling off a cliff. My interpretation and best guess is this year is the blip, while last year is the new normal (I will shiv the poster who tries to construe this as me thinking he sucks.. 40 goals and 70 points is hardly bad). I could absolutely be wrong, but given the commitment we're talking about and my assessment of team needs, I can't get to a spot where I prioritize Stamkos as the #1 offseason target.

 

Hopefully I'm not coming off as militantly anti-Stamkos, because I'm definitely not (unless his price gets bid up in the $11 million+ range).

[dudacek]

The Sabres offence has gotten way better, but the production of Matt Moulson, Tyler Ennis and Zemgus Girgensons has fallen off the floor. Matt Moulson I can explain away as being 31 and never being that fast to begin with.

 

Ennis and Girgensons aren't so easy.

Zemgus we can say he is still maturing, it's a blip. Or maybe he is suffering from the injury that knocked him out last year.

Ennis always gets off to slow starts and he got hurt.

Or both of them have struggled in Bylsma's system. Or neither were that good to begin with and just benefitted from the ice time they got because Nolan had no one better to work with.

We don't honestly know.

 

Cooper came in with a new system and Johnson and Palat and Kucherov and all the rest and Stamkos got hurt.

All the same stuff applies as with Girgs and Ennis.

 

What I have failed to get across is that smarter guys than us, in possession of more information than us are having the same discussions. They are well aware of the red flags on Stamkos. They should be driving his value down.

 

Maybe there is an an opportunity to buy low.if you could ever buy low on a $60-million investment.

Edited March 21, 2016 by dudacek

[JJFIVEOH]

I'm still looking for some justification as to why Stamkos deserves this massive contract. I've mentioned that I consider Stamkos to be a one-dimensional player and some have disagreed. Where are these other dimensions? There is a certain dollar figure for players that score, and there are elite contracts. Players that deserve elite contracts bring more than one dimension. All of the highest paid players are multi-dimensional.

[dudacek]

@Blue I hope I am no coming off as militantly pro-Stamkos.

I just think the even damaged he fills a huge need with first-line talent and I think there is a case to be made that his past two seasons have made him undervalued. People who are pitching him at $12 million per are uneducated fans who haven't had this conversation. That won't be the case for most NHL clubs. You think Lou is going to want pay $12 for a 30-goal man because it will keep Leaf Nation happy.? He ain't wired that way.

[WildCard]

I'm still looking for some justification as to why Stamkos deserves this massive contract. I've mentioned that I consider Stamkos to be a one-dimensional player and some have disagreed. Where are these other dimensions? There is a certain dollar figure for players that score, and there are elite contracts. Players that deserve elite contracts bring more than one dimension. All of the highest paid players are multi-dimensional.

Well, because there are none

 

@Blue I hope I am no coming off as militantly pro-Stamkos.

I just think the even damaged he fills a huge need with first-line talent and I think there is a case to be made that his past two seasons have made him undervalued. People who are pitching him at $12 million per are uneducated fans who haven't had this conversation. That won't be the case for most NHL clubs. You think Lou is going to want pay $12 for a 30-goal man because it will keep Leaf Nation happy.? He ain't wired that way.

I think this may be a huge disagreement between us. Shaw is on the Hawks 1st line, and I'm tired and lazy but I'm sure there are other examples. You're top line doesn't need to be 3 All-Stars.

[dudacek]

Well, because there are none

 

 

I think this may be a huge disagreement between us. Shaw is on the Hawks 1st line, and I'm tired and lazy but I'm sure there are other examples. You're top line doesn't need to be 3 All-Stars.

Let me clarify: we need goals. Even this years version of Stamkos is one of the very best goal scorers in the world.

[jsb]

All the fancy stats doesn't take away that even for a down year for him he's still 7th in the league in goal scoring. On a team totally deficient in scoring goals and in a league where scoring is down how do you not want this guy?? Also for a team that has been abysmal for the past few years how do you look the fan base in the eye and tell them with all the cap space you have that you didn't think it was a good idea to at the very least put on a good show in trying to get him???

 

Fight the good fight Dudacek, you're in the right here.

[tom webster]

I'm still looking for some justification as to why Stamkos deserves this massive contract. I've mentioned that I consider Stamkos to be a one-dimensional player and some have disagreed. Where are these other dimensions? There is a certain dollar figure for players that score, and there are elite contracts. Players that deserve elite contracts bring more than one dimension. All of the highest paid players are multi-dimensional.

You consider Ovechkin and Patrick Kane multi dimensional ?

Let me clarify: we need goals. Even this years version of Stamkos is one of the very best goal scorers in the world.

Exactly, and like I said before. You don't get many chances to acquire elite goal scorers without giving up anything.

As for that srtivle, WildCard, that was the first that came up when I started my research. My only two questions which I hsvent had time to look up, have things changed since it was written in January? It feels like he has come on but I haven't looked it up yet. Other question, writers motives. Statistics have been my life and I know a writers motives can make stats day what they want.

 

It is definitely a concern that he may be tailing off, especially as True says since his leg injury. On the other hand we've heard about the demise of Crosby and Ovechkin that may have been pre-mature. These are the things Murray and his staff have yo determine.

[thewookie1]

You consider Ovechkin and Patrick Kane multi dimensional ?

 

 

Ovi, yes because he's also a hitter.

 

Kane is probably Stamkos's best comparison in terms of dimensions. 

[WildCard]

All the fancy stats doesn't take away that even for a down year for him he's still 7th in the league in goal scoring. On a team totally deficient in scoring goals and in a league where scoring is down how do you not want this guy?? Also for a team that has been abysmal for the past few years how do you look the fan base in the eye and tell them with all the cap space you have that you didn't think it was a good idea to at the very least put on a good show in trying to get him???

 

Fight the good fight Dudacek, you're in the right here.

I don't think the fans have anything to do with this. Our owner and GMTM made it, as public as you can, that we were going to tank for two straight years, and told us to basically just wait for it to work. They got away with it while still selling out the stadium. You think they care about us being a tiny bit upset that we didn't blow our wad on Stamkos?

 

You consider Ovechkin and Patrick Kane multi dimensional ?

 

Exactly, and like I said before. You don't get many chances to acquire elite goal scorers without giving up anything.

As for that srtivle, WildCard, that was the first that came up when I started my research. My only two questions which I hsvent had time to look up, have things changed since it was written in January? It feels like he has come on but I haven't looked it up yet. Other question, writers motives. Statistics have been my life and I know a writers motives can make stats day what they want.

 

It is definitely a concern that he may be tailing off, especially as True says since his leg injury. On the other hand we've heard about the demise of Crosby and Ovechkin that may have been pre-mature. These are the things Murray and his staff have yo determine.

The decline is still evident, even though it was written in January. The final drop just isn't as large

 

Let me clarify: we need goals. Even this years version of Stamkos is one of the very best goal scorers in the world.

Until someone can refute the claim TrueBlue made concerning blue-line effectiveness and goals, I will maintain that spending a large portion of our cap on one pure goal scorer is not the solution to our woes

Ovi, yes because he's also a hitter.

 

Kane is probably Stamkos's best comparison in terms of dimensions. 

I consider Kane much more multi dimensional than Ovechkin. Kane is decent in his own end, and is a much better playmaker than either Ovie or Stamkos, and it's not even close. 

[TrueBlueGED]

 

Until someone can refute the claim TrueBlue made concerning blue-line effectiveness and goals, I will maintain that spending a large portion of our cap on one pure goal scorer is not the solution to our woes

 

In fairness, I don't think I supported that claim all too well empirically :lol:

I just looked at the standings and made some logical arguments based upon goal totals and the corresponding rosters.

 

I've seen plenty of numbers which have convinced me of it, so it's not like I pulled it out of nowhere...but I didn't replicate those numbers to support my argument. That nobody called me out on it is evidence that they saw the length of the post and said "F it, not worth it." Maybe that was my intent all along  :flirt:

Edited March 21, 2016 by TrueBlueGED

[WildCard]

In fairness, I don't think I supported that claim all too well empirically :lol:

I just looked at the standings and made some logical arguments based upon goal totals and the corresponding rosters.

 

I've seen plenty of numbers which have convinced me of it, so it's not like I pulled it out of nowhere...but I didn't replicate those numbers to support my argument. That nobody called me out on it is evidence that they saw the length of the post and said "F it, not worth it." Maybe that was my intent all along  :flirt:

You had the past Cup Winners-40 Goal Scorers posted the other day, and I think only 2 of them in the last decade+ had a 40 goal scorer, while each and every one of them and a dominate blue line

[TrueBlueGED]

You had the past Cup Winners-40 Goal Scorers posted the other day, and I think only 2 of them in the last decade+ had a 40 goal scorer, while each and every one of them and a dominate blue line

 

Oh, I know, I had some support for what I was saying. But if I didn't agree with myself, I could poke holes in it. After all, "how to improve a roster to win the Cup" is not the same question as "how to improve team scoring given a set of players." Personally I think the answers to both of those questions, given the Sabres' current roster and prospect pool, are the same: major improvement on the blue line. 

 

Here's a fun exercise for someone: look up the goals-for and goals-against ranking for each relatively recent Cup winner. Spoiler: what you'll find is the winner is consistently an elite goals-against team, and only sometimes an elite goals-for team. For example, last season Chicago was 1st in GA, but only 16th in GF.

Edited March 21, 2016 by TrueBlueGED

[tom webster]

It comes back top the same argument for me, and again, I respect the well thought rebuttals of both Wildcard and True, but Drew Doughty, Eric Karlsson and players of their ilk are not available. Yandle and Stamkos are and they can afford them both. The only potential other option is Oliver Ekman Larsson who I believe will be offered to whomever wins the draft lottery. (wouldn't that be amazing as with his contract you could afford him, Fowler and Stamkos,)

Stamkos, despite JJ's disbelief, is an elite talent and scores goals in a league that doesn't score. I leave it up to those that scout these things to determine if his decline is going to continue, level off or reverse itself. I personally believe that as long as he puts up 35/40 goals at today's games value he is worth $10M per year and with being available on the open market will get more. Without knowing what will happen between now and July, I have no idea if he fits TM's plan.

[WildCard]

It comes back top the same argument for me, and again, I respect the well thought rebuttals of both Wildcard and True, but Drew Doughty, Eric Karlsson and players of their ilk are not available. Yandle and Stamkos are and they can afford them both. The only potential other option is Oliver Ekman Larsson who I believe will be offered to whomever wins the draft lottery. (wouldn't that be amazing as with his contract you could afford him, Fowler and Stamkos,)

Stamkos, despite JJ's disbelief, is an elite talent and scores goals in a league that doesn't score. I leave it up to those that scout these things to determine if his decline is going to continue, level off or reverse itself. I personally believe that as long as he puts up 35/40 goals at today's games value he is worth $10M per year and with being available on the open market will get more. Without knowing what will happen between now and July, I have no idea if he fits TM's plan.

You don't need a Norris winning d-man to come in, you just need some improvements. Fowler is available, Goligoski is available, Yandle, available. 

[TrueBlueGED]

It comes back top the same argument for me, and again, I respect the well thought rebuttals of both Wildcard and True, but Drew Doughty, Eric Karlsson and players of their ilk are not available. Yandle and Stamkos are and they can afford them both. The only potential other option is Oliver Ekman Larsson who I believe will be offered to whomever wins the draft lottery. (wouldn't that be amazing as with his contract you could afford him, Fowler and Stamkos,)

Stamkos, despite JJ's disbelief, is an elite talent and scores goals in a league that doesn't score. I leave it up to those that scout these things to determine if his decline is going to continue, level off or reverse itself. I personally believe that as long as he puts up 35/40 goals at today's games value he is worth $10M per year and with being available on the open market will get more. Without knowing what will happen between now and July, I have no idea if he fits TM's plan.

 

I don't think you understand what you just did to me...

[tom webster]

I don't think you understand what you just did to me...

 

I know, its the stuff dreams are made of. Fowler at $4M for two more years, Larsson at $5M for the 3 years and Risto at between $4.8/$5.5M for 6 or more years. I think they could win with that.

[LGR4GM]

Just out of curiosity, how available is Fowler?

[JJFIVEOH]

I don't think the fans have anything to do with this. Our owner and GMTM made it, as public as you can, that we were going to tank for two straight years, and told us to basically just wait for it to work. They got away with it while still selling out the stadium. You think they care about us being a tiny bit upset that we didn't blow our wad on Stamkos?

 

The decline is still evident, even though it was written in January. The final drop just isn't as large

 

Until someone can refute the claim TrueBlue made concerning blue-line effectiveness and goals, I will maintain that spending a large portion of our cap on one pure goal scorer is not the solution to our woes

I consider Kane much more multi dimensional than Ovechkin. Kane is decent in his own end, and is a much better playmaker than either Ovie or Stamkos, and it's not even close. 

 

Kane is also one of the best 5v5 players in the league, and he also steps up in the playoffs and carries his team, regardless of who his linemates are.

[WildCard]

Also, we don't need to buy/get everything we need this offseason. We're fresh off 2 tanks, and will be getting another top prospect. Going after Stamkos at this time just doesn't fit with where we are IMO. If we don't get the LHD we need, we likely draft one and wait, or we wait for one to become available

Edited March 21, 2016 by WildCard

[SwampD]

Also, we don't need to buy/get everything we need this offseason. We're fresh off 2 tanks, and will be getting another top prospect. Going after Stamkos at this time just doesn't fit with where we are IMO. If we don't get the LHD we need, we likely draft one and wait, or we wait for one to become available

Why not do it, though? Why can't we get better sooner and still be better down the road? 

 

I really believe that this need to rationalize why elite players would not work in Buffalo is just a defense mechanism so that when we don't get them, we don't feel so bad (not just aimed at you, WC).

[WildCard]

Why not do it, though? Why can't we get better sooner and still be better down the road? 

 

I really believe that this need to rationalize why elite players would not work in Buffalo is just a defense mechanism so that when we don't get them, we don't feel so bad (not just aimed at you, WC).

Personally? Because I don't think he's the answer

 

As for the 2nd part, I know it's not aimed at me, but I always believe we'll get star players, for the Sabres at least. I was convinced McDavid was coming here, and Brad Richards way back when. I'm a pretty optimistic guy when it comes to sports. I honestly feel like we'll win the lottery this year. So many, I don't know, signs from the universe or some , point to us winning

Edited March 21, 2016 by WildCard

[LGR4GM]

Why not do it, though? Why can't we get better sooner and still be better down the road? 

 

I really believe that this need to rationalize why elite players would not work in Buffalo is just a defense mechanism so that when we don't get them, we don't feel so bad (not just aimed at you, WC).

Ovechkin, Doughty, Benn, Shea Weber are all elite players I would be very happy to see in a Sabres uniform. It has nothing to do with a defense mechanisms and and rationalizing why it wouldn't work. Stamkos wants to be Captain, Play Center, and is guesstimated to want 11mil. I just don't think he is worth the money or hassle for that.