Brawndo Posted February 23, 2015 Report Share Posted February 23, 2015 (edited) Some fun facts on GMTM and his use of analytics. First an ESPN Article regarding Teams and their use of Analytics http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/12331388/the-great-analytics-rankings Second while speaking on HH earlier he brought up WOWY or With Or Without You when speaking about Dylan Strome and Connor Mc David. Edited February 23, 2015 by BRAWNDO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IKnowPhysics Posted February 23, 2015 Report Share Posted February 23, 2015 (edited) First an ESPN Article regarding Teams and their use of Analytics http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/12331388/the-great-analytics-rankings Neat. We haven't yet had a compilation of where each team sits. Edited February 23, 2015 by Я знаю физика Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted February 23, 2015 Report Share Posted February 23, 2015 Some fun facts on GMTM and his use of analytics. First an ESPN Article regarding Teams and their use of Analytics http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/12331388/the-great-analytics-rankings Second while speaking on HH earlier he brought up WOWY or With Or Without You when speaking about Dylan Strome and Connor Mc David. I need to listen to this interview :wub: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brawndo Posted February 23, 2015 Report Share Posted February 23, 2015 I need to listen to this interview :wub: Listen at 23:30 http://sabres.nhl.com/v2/ext/2014-15%20Season/HOCKEY%20HOTLINE/20150223-TimMurray-HH.mp3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwampD Posted February 23, 2015 Report Share Posted February 23, 2015 So, eventually, every team will be using analytics (if every team isn't already), thus minimizing their effectiveness. How long before we get to complain about it being an unfair advantage because all the really good statisticians go to the big market teams to make more money? :devil: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevbeau Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 I quickly read a few posts, but I haven't read the entire thread so please excuse me if I repeat anything. Unless the data recording methods have vastly improved since I was last exposed to them, the biggest issue facing the use of advanced analytics in hockey is data collection. There's a significant margin of error in the raw data that you can pull from nhl.com, so I would be very wary of doing any sort of in depth trend or explanatory analysis from it. Having said that, simple analyses (such as Corsi) can be used for directional indication. Hence the caution issued when measuring single period/game performance, but generalizations can be made with increased sample sizes...often referred to as the "law of big numbers." I don't know for sure, but I would imagine the teams advancing their capabilities are using in-game or post-game data collection techniques not associated with the NHL off-ice crews. Whether it's eyeballs on a screen or some sort of visual recording software, I'm not positive. Again, there's too much error in the generic NHL locational stats (shots, hits, give/takeaways) to offer any short term findings as definitive. TOI even has a noticeable margin of error. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 http://m.espn.go.com/nhl/story?storyId=12370826&src=desktop&rand=ref~%7B%22ref%22%3A%22http%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2FKvcdWmtFY5%22%7D Good stuff here from Stan Bowman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rakish Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 I quickly read a few posts, but I haven't read the entire thread so please excuse me if I repeat anything. Unless the data recording methods have vastly improved since I was last exposed to them, the biggest issue facing the use of advanced analytics in hockey is data collection. There's a significant margin of error in the raw data that you can pull from nhl.com, so I would be very wary of doing any sort of in depth trend or explanatory analysis from it. Having said that, simple analyses (such as Corsi) can be used for directional indication. Hence the caution issued when measuring single period/game performance, but generalizations can be made with increased sample sizes...often referred to as the "law of big numbers." I don't know for sure, but I would imagine the teams advancing their capabilities are using in-game or post-game data collection techniques not associated with the NHL off-ice crews. Whether it's eyeballs on a screen or some sort of visual recording software, I'm not positive. Again, there's too much error in the generic NHL locational stats (shots, hits, give/takeaways) to offer any short term findings as definitive. TOI even has a noticeable margin of error. The amount of error in the RTSS reports doesn't bother me as much as it probably should. One thing that would have helped a lot is if they used 'line change' and an event. You end up with 45 seconds between events, different players on the ice, who played those 45 seconds, don't know. As you say, it evens out with enough data. Yeah, you gotta believe each team serious about this stuff has a flock of interns taking notes gathering data. And that why I got out of this as an interest, because my lack of data is insurmountable. How do you know the difference whether a team knows what they are doing or not? How do I know whether my work is any good? I moved on to the draft, nice bright lines. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 The amount of error in the RTSS reports doesn't bother me as much as it probably should. One thing that would have helped a lot is if they used 'line change' and an event. You end up with 45 seconds between events, different players on the ice, who played those 45 seconds, don't know. As you say, it evens out with enough data. Yeah, you gotta believe each team serious about this stuff has a flock of interns taking notes gathering data. And that why I got out of this as an interest, because my lack of data is insurmountable. How do you know the difference whether a team knows what they are doing or not? How do I know whether my work is any good? I moved on to the draft, nice bright lines. Kind of tangental to what you're saying, but this is why I don't put much stock in the argument that the competitive advantage will evaporate once everyone is using the same data. The data might eventually be the same, but the analyses it's used in and the interpretations most certainly will not be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rakish Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 Kind of tangental to what you're saying, but this is why I don't put much stock in the argument that the competitive advantage will evaporate once everyone is using the same data. The data might eventually be the same, but the analyses it's used in and the interpretations most certainly will not be. Absolutely, I think the results from drafting are way more consistent than you do because some teams are using relevant analysis and most teams aren't, but I can measure these things working in the draft, but how much does data matter in the NHL? I have no idea. I don't know what data people are looking at, or any idea how many games are won or lost because of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IKnowPhysics Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 http://m.espn.go.com/nhl/story?storyId=12370826&src=desktop&rand=ref~%7B%22ref%22%3A%22http%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2FKvcdWmtFY5%22%7D Good stuff here from Stan Bowman. Hmm. I know sports management guys like to keep proprietary secrets, but it really seems as if he believes that if he shares, he loses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Aud Smell Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 http://m.espn.go.com/nhl/story?storyId=12370826&src=desktop&rand=ref~%7B%22ref%22%3A%22http%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2FKvcdWmtFY5%22%7D Good stuff here from Stan Bowman. Stick tap to Ghost for having essentially said this (see below) many times. The distinction that Bowman draws is that everyone is not yet looking at the same things. Again: Not yet. "Bowman: Once anything is widely adopted, there's no advantage. Then you're all looking at all the same things the same way. Right now, I think we're looking at things slightly differently. I don't get into specifics. It's not to be coy; I'm not trying to get accolades." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 Stick tap to Ghost for having essentially said this (see below) many times. The distinction that Bowman draws is that everyone is not yet looking at the same things. Again: Not yet. "Bowman: Once anything is widely adopted, there's no advantage. Then you're all looking at all the same things the same way. Right now, I think we're looking at things slightly differently. I don't get into specifics. It's not to be coy; I'm not trying to get accolades." I actually think the most important part of that quote is "same way." Especially once SportsVU is widely adopted and the data available, everybody is going to be looking at the same thing. But in no way, shape, or form, does that mean they'll be looking at it the same way--and in my not so humble opinion, what you do with the data is infinitely more important than the equivalence of availability. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted March 4, 2015 Report Share Posted March 4, 2015 I thought I might put this here. It breaks down the unsustainable shooting percentages of a group of players in the league. Basically it is foreshadowing who is overproducing. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on shooting percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it is unlikely that a player can maintain a shooting percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers for long amounts of time (which translates to lots of shots).The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent. The last column (Dev) measures the deviation from career levels. http://leftwinglock.com/articles.php?id=2491&title=Unsustainable-Skaters-March-4-2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted March 4, 2015 Report Share Posted March 4, 2015 I actually think the most important part of that quote is "same way." Especially once SportsVU is widely adopted and the data available, everybody is going to be looking at the same thing. But in no way, shape, or form, does that mean they'll be looking at it the same way--and in my not so humble opinion, what you do with the data is infinitely more important than the equivalence of availability.Not sure how the league tracks the RTSS, but the teams track their own events very precisely and at least some of them have been doing it for 10+ years now. They've manually tracked when guys hit the ice, when they come off, who has the puck and what was done with it in realtime. What they've done w/ that data definitely varies from team to team. The SportsVU should increase the accuracy of the data obviously. I'd be interested to see how the league makes that data available both to teams and the general public. Doubt anyone wants their opponents looking at their precise data. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wraith Posted March 4, 2015 Report Share Posted March 4, 2015 (edited) I actually think the most important part of that quote is "same way." Especially once SportsVU is widely adopted and the data available, everybody is going to be looking at the same thing. But in no way, shape, or form, does that mean they'll be looking at it the same way--and in my not so humble opinion, what you do with the data is infinitely more important than the equivalence of availability. This is a good time to point out that when "everyone is looking at it the same way" there is an enormous opportunity for the smart and clever people to gain an advantage. That is the real premise of "Moneyball." "Moneyball" was not about adherence to one particular school of analytical thought. It was about identifying the market inefficiencies and exploiting them. When everyone (the "market") is on the same page about what is valuable and not valuable, it becomes very cost effective to find the hidden value in the "not valuable." Sooner or later, everyone else will recognize that hidden value and the "not valuables" become "valuable." In the process, formerly "valuables" will be "not valuables" and the process will repeat. The system is read and react, and therefore will never reach an equilibrium and will be entertainingly dynamic for those not afraid of change. Edited March 4, 2015 by Wraith Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted March 4, 2015 Report Share Posted March 4, 2015 This is a good time to point out that when "everyone is looking at it the same way" there is an enormous opportunity for the smart and clever people to gain an advantage. That is the real premise of "Moneyball." "Moneyball" was not about adherence to one particular school of analytical thought. It was about identifying the market inefficiencies and exploiting them. When everyone (the "market") is on the same page about what is valuable and not valuable, it becomes very cost effective to find the hidden value in the "not valuable." Sooner or later, everyone else will recognize that hidden value and the "not valuables" become "valuable." In the process, formerly "valuables" will be "not valuables" and the process will repeat. The system is read and react, and therefore will never reach an equilibrium and will be entertainingly dynamic for those not afraid of change. I agree. For instance the perfect hockey example is everyone can look at shooting percentage and yet year after year after year the GM's around the league pay guys based on outlier years when their shot % was sometimes double the norms... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted March 4, 2015 Report Share Posted March 4, 2015 Not sure how the league tracks the RTSS, but the teams track their own events very precisely and at least some of them have been doing it for 10+ years now. They've manually tracked when guys hit the ice, when they come off, who has the puck and what was done with it in realtime. What they've done w/ that data definitely varies from team to team. The SportsVU should increase the accuracy of the data obviously. I'd be interested to see how the league makes that data available both to teams and the general public. Doubt anyone wants their opponents looking at their precise data. Pretty sure it was reported the NHL plans on paywalling the data a la the NFL's all-22. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted March 4, 2015 Report Share Posted March 4, 2015 Pretty sure it was reported the NHL plans on paywalling the data a la the NFL's all-22.The raw data or what they decide to aggregate out of it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted March 4, 2015 Report Share Posted March 4, 2015 The raw data or what they decide to aggregate out of it? That's an excellent question to which I have no answer. I could have missed it, but from what I remember there weren't any specifics reported, only that the NHL plans to monetize the data. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted March 4, 2015 Report Share Posted March 4, 2015 That's an excellent question to which I have no answer. I could have missed it, but from what I remember there weren't any specifics reported, only that the NHL plans to monetize the data.My guess is that they'll have 1 level available to teams about their own players, another available leaguewide to the teams and those 'in the loop', and a lowered level available to the public. Would be pretty cool to have access to the raw data. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BagBoy Posted March 6, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 6, 2015 Looks like Ottawa is taking analytics with a grain of salt. http://www.tsn.ca/patrick-wiercioch-analytics-vs-eyeball-test-1.223118 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudacek Posted March 6, 2015 Report Share Posted March 6, 2015 (edited) Looks like Ottawa is taking analytics with a grain of salt. http://www.tsn.ca/patrick-wiercioch-analytics-vs-eyeball-test-1.223118 What an interesting article. I wonder, could you substitute Tim Murray for Bryan Murray and Mark Pysyk for Patrick Weircoch? Or maybe Weircoch was a Tim Murray favourite. We still don't have a real could handle on what kind of players Tim likes, because so many of his acquisitions haven't had a chance to show their stuff yet. Edited March 6, 2015 by dudacek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted March 10, 2015 Report Share Posted March 10, 2015 If you don't believe Corsi has any value, you should probably ignore what I'm about to post. Otherwise, I think it's interesting. Corey Pronman @coreypronman 23m23 minutes ago In the NHL at even-strength, forwards define a team's puck posession. Role determined by ESTOI/60 team rank Corey Pronman @coreypronman 21m21 minutes ago Analytics help you predict performance, but also helps us understand the game. Value of Fs over Dmen have been my major eye-opener this yr. Corey Pronman @coreypronman 6m6 minutes ago I discussed this at the start of the season, but am of the firm belief that a top 6 is much more important than a top 4. See previous tweet. I'm not sure how I feel about posting this, because it may contribute to a few bridge jumpers if we have to draft Hanifin instead of Eichel or McDavid :lol: In seriousness though, I do think it's interesting how, at least this year, the forwards have been really driving the bus. I'd really like to see this analysis over a several year spread to see how consistent these results are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qwksndmonster Posted March 10, 2015 Report Share Posted March 10, 2015 Is that each player's individual corsi? Or team corsi%? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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