Official 2015 NHL Draft Thread

[Crusader1969]

"Good" chance might be stretching things. but true. Let's say Buffalo finishes with the #8 pick, the odds that they pick in the top 3 are 18% (3 * 6%, right?). Those are almost the same chance that we got McDavid, which is to say, not very likely.

 

wont the odds change if the team holding the 20% chance get the top pick?

 

then you would have 7.5% chance (up from 6% of getting pick #2).

 

if the teams with the best odds of getting #1 and #2 end up with pick 1 & 2  in either order then the team with the 8th best odds would be near 10% of getting the 3rd pick.

 

I think this is right but not 100% 

 

I still wouldn't trade away the Sabres #1 pick in 2016 because  the top 7 or 8 in 2016 look like really good players. Plus, you would have to have a really good deal on the table to trade away your #1 pick with the draft in your city

Edited June 2, 2015 by Crusader1969

[LGR4GM]

"Good" chance might be stretching things. but true. Let's say Buffalo finishes with the #8 pick, the odds that they pick in the top 3 are 18% (3 * 6%, right?). Those are almost the same chance that we got McDavid, which is to say, not very likely.

I said a chance.  Not to argue semantics but I would never say we have a good chance at the #1 overall pick because I expect us to be in that 8-14 range next year. 

[X. Benedict]

I see the RedLine Report has Buffalo's  #21 

 

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nhl/draft/2015/06/01/nhl-mock-draft-connor-mcdavid-jack-eichel-and-then/28302331/

 

 

"21. Buffalo (from NY Islanders) — Oliver Kylington. Buffalo GM Tim Murray once upon a time stepped up to draft small Swedish offensive dynamo Erik Karlsson at No. 15 overall for the Ottawa Senators. This kid is Karlsson-lite: all the same fabulous skating and skills, but none of Karlsson's head for the game. Given the Sabres' deep prospect stockpile, and owning multiple first-round picks, they can afford to gamble on a potential difference-maker."

 

 

 

Hmmmm?

[Crusader1969]

Here is a player that we haven't brought up much but I keep seeing his name in the early to late 20's.

 

Denis Guryanov

RW Ladia Togliatti (MHL)

 

From Future Considerations'

 

"STRENGTHS: The big Russian winger is a speedy and skilled forward who has potent offensive ability.

A very quick skater who can pick up steam in an instant and break plays open. Guryanov is a poised

puck carrier who has a long reach and great hands to remain elusive to checkers"

 

Weekness - WEAKNESSES: The birth certificate is his main area of concern. Guryanov

has made no commitment to playing in the NHL and has not expressed his interest,

meaning he is a real risk for the NHL team that selects him. If his name

was John Smith from Toronto, he would likely be considered a top 10 pick by

many teams.

 

I think Sabres could be a team to risk it on him with their second pick in the first round.

[MattPie]

wont the odds change if the team holding the 20% chance get the top pick?

 

then you would have 7.5% chance (up from 6% of getting pick #2).

 

if the teams with the best odds of getting #1 and #2 end up with pick 1 & 2  in either order then the team with the 8th best odds would be near 10% of getting the 3rd pick.

 

I think this is right but not 100% 

 

I still wouldn't trade away the Sabres #1 pick in 2016 because  the top 7 or 8 in 2016 look like really good players. Plus, you would have to have a really good deal on the table to trade away your #1 pick with the draft in your city

 

You're correct, the odds would re-jigger themselves when teams ahead of the Sabres win. Good catch.

[LGR4GM]

I see the RedLine Report has Buffalo's  #21 

 

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nhl/draft/2015/06/01/nhl-mock-draft-connor-mcdavid-jack-eichel-and-then/28302331/

 

 

"21. Buffalo (from NY Islanders) — Oliver Kylington. Buffalo GM Tim Murray once upon a time stepped up to draft small Swedish offensive dynamo Erik Karlsson at No. 15 overall for the Ottawa Senators. This kid is Karlsson-lite: all the same fabulous skating and skills, but none of Karlsson's head for the game. Given the Sabres' deep prospect stockpile, and owning multiple first-round picks, they can afford to gamble on a potential difference-maker."

 

 

 

Hmmmm?

I have strong dislike for Kylington but I don't think he will slide to 21.  

 

Here is a player that we haven't brought up much but I keep seeing his name in the early to late 20's.

 

Denis Guryanov

RW Ladia Togliatti (MHL)

 

From Future Considerations'

 

"STRENGTHS: The big Russian winger is a speedy and skilled forward who has potent offensive ability.

A very quick skater who can pick up steam in an instant and break plays open. Guryanov is a poised

puck carrier who has a long reach and great hands to remain elusive to checkers"

 

Weekness - WEAKNESSES: The birth certificate is his main area of concern. Guryanov

has made no commitment to playing in the NHL and has not expressed his interest,

meaning he is a real risk for the NHL team that selects him. If his name

was John Smith from Toronto, he would likely be considered a top 10 pick by

many teams.

 

I think Sabres could be a team to risk it on him with their second pick in the first round.

 

If he is there at 31 you may take a flyer on him. At 21 you don't need to take a risk like this. Also I think Guryanov will slide because of the Russian factor. Also looking around most grade him as probably going in the back half of the 2nd round or the early 3rd. 

Note that he plays for his hometown team in Russia.

Edited June 2, 2015 by LGR4GM

[Crusader1969]

I have strong dislike for Kylington but I don't think he will slide to 21.  

If he is there at 31 you may take a flyer on him. At 21 you don't need to take a risk like this. Also I think Guryanov will slide because of the Russian factor. Also looking around most grade him as probably going in the back half of the 2nd round or the early 3rd. 

Note that he plays for his hometown team in Russia.

 

 

Here are some recent rankings for Guryanov -  Craigs List 20, Future Considerations 24, Draft Buzz 10, Mckeens Hockey 22, ISS 24.

 

Those are the only ones I know of that have done their final rankings.  I agree with a dislike for Kylington but the highest I've seen him ranked is 29 and the lowest is 70. Of course, there are more than just the 5 ranks out there that I've seen so far.

[dudacek]

Kylington is the type if you had some inside intel on extenuating circumstances why his play has slipped you might get yourself a steal.

I'd be very happy with him at 31.

[Hoss]

Toronto Sun says it seems likely that the Coyotes will be taking Dylan Strome at number 3: http://www.torontosun.com/2015/05/30/maple-leafs-have-tough-decision-for-june-draft

[#freejame]

Toronto Sun says it seems likely that the Coyotes will be taking Dylan Strome at number 3: http://www.torontosun.com/2015/05/30/maple-leafs-have-tough-decision-for-june-draft

I think that's probably the safer play, but I really believe Marner has the higher upside than Strome. I went to a few games of that playoff series and Marner really blew me away. 

[dudacek]

Yeah, I'm glad we aren't having to make the choice, but I think that out of the non-McEichel forwards in the top-10, Marner may end up having the best career.

[Crusader1969]

Yeah, I'm glad we aren't having to make the choice, but I think that out of the non-McEichel forwards in the top-10, Marner may end up having the best career.

 

1000% agree and it won't be close - the kid is dynamite. 

Leafs may be forced to take Strome since they are desperate for a Center. Lets not forget Bozak is still their #1 center.... :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:

Edited June 3, 2015 by Crusader1969

[LGR4GM]

1000% agree and it won't be close - the kid is dynamite. 

Leafs may be forced to take Strome since they are desperate for a Center. Lets not forget Bozak is still their #1 center.... :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:

Well if the draft unfolds as:

1) McDavid

2) Eichel

3) Strome

 

I would say there is no way Toronto could take a center.  The next center would be Barzal and he is most assuredly on a level below Marner, Hanifin and possibly Provorov. 

[X. Benedict]

The thing that fascinates me about this draft is the #21st pick. 

 

I think Murray will move up, but if he can't..........I could see Murray doing something like this....

 

 

#21  to Ottawa for G Robin Lehrner and  RW Tobias Lindberg. In other words - trade the pick to get a speedier return on the development timeline - even if it was a previously drafted prospects that Murray knows well....*

 

* Don't kill me for the simile -  I just think Murray is liable to do something like this. 

[shrader]

The thing that fascinates me about this draft is the #21st pick. 

 

I think Murray will move up, but if he can't..........I could see Murray doing something like this....

 

 

#21  to Ottawa for G Robin Lehrner and  RW Tobias Lindberg. In other words - trade the pick to get a speedier return on the development timeline - even if it was a previously drafted prospects that Murray knows well....*

 

* Don't kill me for the simile -  I just think Murray is liable to do something like this. 

 

They almost have to at this point.  At some point they're going to be facing a gauntlet of expiring ELC deals and it'll be good to have other guys on a different time table.

[LGR4GM]

They almost have to at this point.  At some point they're going to be facing a gauntlet of expiring ELC deals and it'll be good to have other guys on a different time table.

But Lindberg will be on the same timeline as our other 2 rw prospects Bailey and Baptiste.  

[shrader]

But Lindberg will be on the same timeline as our other 2 rw prospects Bailey and Baptiste.  

 

They're not as big of a concern.  It's the first round guys who are most likely to be in line for nice raises.  Baptiste and Bailey are guys who, unless they thrive immediately, will be in line for your standard qualifying offer deals.  Eichel, Reinhart, and if he starts to progress, Zadorov all hitting in back-to-back years could make for some interesting cap maneuvers.  Kane is also scheduled to hit UFA the same year the Eichel and Reinhart ELCs expire.  At this point it might be helpful to have a few more guys whose contracts are on a completely different timetable.  With so many guys hitting at once, it brings up memories of the 2006 offseason.

[dudacek]

The thing that fascinates me about this draft is the #21st pick. 

 

I think Murray will move up, but if he can't..........I could see Murray doing something like this....

 

 

#21  to Ottawa for G Robin Lehrner and  RW Tobias Lindberg. In other words - trade the pick to get a speedier return on the development timeline - even if it was a previously drafted prospects that Murray knows well....*

 

* Don't kill me for the simile -  I just think Murray is liable to do something like this. 

 

I'm pretty sure this his plan too, but the most fascinating thing is who might be on his target list if he goes for option B.

We have no idea. It could be some guy Nashville picked in the third round four years ago.

I mean, who had Hudson Fasching on their radar at the trade deadline in 2014?

Edited June 3, 2015 by dudacek

[Crusader1969]

anyone interested in doing a Sabre Space 2015 mock draft? taking turns to draft pick 3 through 30.

 

I'll let Tim Murray's grandmother make picks 1 and 2.

 

In-box me if you want to be a manager.

[inkman]

You're correct, the odds would re-jigger themselves when teams ahead of the Sabres win. Good catch.

Jigger what?

[#freejame]

The thing that fascinates me about this draft is the #21st pick. 

 

I think Murray will move up, but if he can't..........I could see Murray doing something like this....

 

 

#21  to Ottawa for G Robin Lehrner and  RW Tobias Lindberg. In other words - trade the pick to get a speedier return on the development timeline - even if it was a previously drafted prospects that Murray knows well....*

 

* Don't kill me for the simile -  I just think Murray is liable to do something like this. 

I didn't know too much about either of those guys, so I just looked them both up and that seems like too little for the pair of them. Maybe that's where one of eiter Bailey or Bapitse could come into play. 

[Huckleberry]

Kylington is the type if you had some inside intel on extenuating circumstances why his play has slipped you might get yourself a steal.

I'd be very happy with him at 31.

 

I always liked Kylington, but i can't see him slip to #21 let alone #31, whatever the hype was around this kid, some team will take a gamble on him before #21.

 

If we do draft a RW I'm hoping for jens looke or daniel sprong to drop with our #21, and kylington is out we should take a look at Mitchel vande sompel with one of our second rounders.   Maybe a bit on the small side with 5'10 but also a reason why he will drop.

 

Edited June 3, 2015 by Heimdall

[SabresFanInRochester]

I see the RedLine Report has Buffalo's  #21 

 

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nhl/draft/2015/06/01/nhl-mock-draft-connor-mcdavid-jack-eichel-and-then/28302331/

 

 

"21. Buffalo (from NY Islanders) — Oliver Kylington. Buffalo GM Tim Murray once upon a time stepped up to draft small Swedish offensive dynamo Erik Karlsson at No. 15 overall for the Ottawa Senators. This kid is Karlsson-lite: all the same fabulous skating and skills, but none of Karlsson's head for the game. Given the Sabres' deep prospect stockpile, and owning multiple first-round picks, they can afford to gamble on a potential difference-maker."

 

 

 

Hmmmm?

I think hockey IQ should receive more emphasis. I hear great things about Reinhart and his vision and head for the game and that excites me. I hear this is also one of Eichel's strengths. As soon as I hear that someone doesn't have the head for the game, I am ready to check out. My two sought after qualities -- Hockey IQ, and Clutchness.

 

As an example, I was a huge Tyler Myers fan and upset when he was traded. However, I had questioned his mental strength and kind of wondered if maybe he wasn't the brightest guy and the fact that he was 6'8" with a solid skillset better explained his hype. I finally conceded to the trade because I want a team of smart players, and I see addition by subtraction here.

 

My other example is Vanek. When you watched him play, he was so super creative with the puck. I liked Hecht, but when he was the center for Vanek and Pominville, there seemed to be frequent occurrences of Hecht not expecting the puck. I associate that with hockey IQ. I think Hecht was a strong player on the boards and a good two-way player, but didn't have the hockey IQ I desire. (At least to be a top line center.)

 

Clutchness is a topic for another day, but give me the guy that raises his game in the playoffs. Interesting poll question would be: Do you want a 30-40 goal scorer on your roster who does not put up any points in the playoffs? Some people might desire that because you need those points to even make the playoffs. But, others, like myself, would respond that if the player is not able to compete in the playoffs, go find another player who will fill that void.

[LGR4GM]

I didn't know too much about either of those guys, so I just looked them both up and that seems like too little for the pair of them. Maybe that's where one of eiter Bailey or Bapitse could come into play. 

The problem is if you add in Bailey or Baptiste you are just trading a 1st for Lehner which is an overpayment.  Bailey and Baptiste are the same age, play the same wing, have similar or better junior numbers, and are all roughly similar in size.  In the end unless you see Lindberg if a significant upgrade (I doubt the Sabres do) you are really just swapping similar prospects. 

[LabattBlue]

I have a question...what has Lehner done in the last two seasons that would make any team want to trade for him, let alone in any deal for a 1st round pick/package deal?  An unknown by the name of Hammond came out of nowhere and played lights out for Ottawa last season, while Lehner was barely keeping his head above water.

 

I'd look on the F/A scrap heap before giving up anything of significance for Lehner.  Same goes for Lack who will be a UFA after this season.