Worst team in Franchise History

[nfreeman]

I know. I'm just saying that it wouldn't be the worst-case. I'd STRONGLY prefer a forward. Honestly, if we don't get number one I still think we end up with Reinhart. At the very top, you consider need when it's close like it is between Ekblad and Reinhart. Teams like the Isles, Oilers and Panthers might consider a dman before another forward. Especially Edmonton.

 

 

It'd be interesting to see what we'd do if we ended up with both Reinhart AND McDavid. Who do we move to wing between those two and Hodgson? Obviously McDavid stays at center. I don't think I could see Hodgson on the wing, and I don't know if you want to tango with him going back to the bottom six. Obviously could trade one. Good problem to have if it ever gets there.

 

Well, a defenseman has gone #1 only once since 1996 -- that was Erik Johnson in 2006.

[Robviously]

I know. I'm just saying that it wouldn't be the worst-case. I'd STRONGLY prefer a forward. Honestly, if we don't get number one I still think we end up with Reinhart. At the very top, you consider need when it's close like it is between Ekblad and Reinhart. Teams like the Isles, Oilers and Panthers might consider a dman before another forward. Especially Edmonton.

 

 

It'd be interesting to see what we'd do if we ended up with both Reinhart AND McDavid. Who do we move to wing between those two and Hodgson? Obviously McDavid stays at center. I don't think I could see Hodgson on the wing, and I don't know if you want to tango with him going back to the bottom six. Obviously could trade one. Good problem to have if it ever gets there.

This scenario is far too awesome to even worry about. 0.000% chance of happening.

 

The Sabres are as close to a lock to take a forward as you can be. Not only are we loaded with young defensemen, the cupboard is looking bare for top offensive talent. Basically just Armia and Grigorenko and neither seems like a future superstar at this point (I wouldn't rule it out but I'm not counting on it either).

 

Ekblad would make a lot more sense if we'd taken Nichushkin at 8th last year.

[Hoss]

This scenario is far too awesome to even worry about. 0.000% chance of happening.

 

The Sabres are as close to a lock to take a forward as you can be. Not only are we loaded with young defensemen, the cupboard is looking bare for top offensive talent. Basically just Armia and Grigorenko and neither seems like a future superstar at this point (I wouldn't rule it out but I'm not counting on it either).

 

Ekblad would make a lot more sense if we'd taken Nichushkin at 8th last year.

 

I don't disagree with you. Just noting that it's a possibility. In a perfect world, you trade down from 2 to like 4 and get a guy like Dal Colle if Reinhart is gone.

 

But there's actually a pretty solid chance that we're picking first AT LEAST once in the next two years. There's definitely a much larger change than 0.00% chance that we land Reinhart and McDavid. ESPECIALLY if we deal/let Miller walk.

[MattPie]

But there's actually a pretty solid chance that we're picking first AT LEAST once in the next two years. There's definitely a much larger change than 0.00% chance that we land Reinhart and McDavid. ESPECIALLY if we deal/let Miller walk.

 

I'm pretty rusty on my probability, but picking 1st both times (via the lottery and being in last) would be 25% * 25%, or 6.3%. Picking #1 zero times (again from last place) is 75% * 75%, or 56% (ouch). The remainder is 37.5%, which is picking #1 once in two years. (25% * 75% + 75% * 25%).

[Hoss]

I'm pretty rusty on my probability, but picking 1st both times (via the lottery and being in last) would be 25% * 25%, or 6.3%. Picking #1 zero times (again from last place) is 75% * 75%, or 56% (ouch). The remainder is 37.5%, which is picking #1 once in two years. (25% * 75% + 75% * 25%).

 

Pretty solid compared to other teams. But math is fun.

[TrueBlueGED]

How about "you reap what you sow?"

 

We are still making our way out of the long shadow of Black Sunday and the DR cloud of loserdom. We traded away our 2 best forwards in order to intentionally ice a terrible team. There are more Rangers and Leafs fans at the FNC than Sabres fans. Why do we deserve a 1-in-4 longshot to hit?

 

We deserve the longshot to win because we've been subjected to bad-mediocre hockey for the vast majority of the franchise's existence, not to mention a couple ownership debacles in which the fans are blameless. Regardless of what Regier tried to do...he was fired, and the fans wanted him fired. We should not be eternally doomed because we were unwillingly subjected to what he did.

 

Point is *we* didn't sow anything. Regier and previous ownership did, and they're all gone. Surely that exorcized the demons, or at least ennough of them for the fans to not be subjected to further purgatory.

 

I'm sure someone said this 20 years ago when we were losing our fourth straight Super Bowl.

 

Go away you miserable shrew!

[Robviously]

I don't disagree with you. Just noting that it's a possibility. In a perfect world, you trade down from 2 to like 4 and get a guy like Dal Colle if Reinhart is gone.

 

But there's actually a pretty solid chance that we're picking first AT LEAST once in the next two years. There's definitely a much larger change than 0.00% chance that we land Reinhart and McDavid. ESPECIALLY if we deal/let Miller walk.

Define "solid." Being the worst team in the league only assures you a 25% chance of winning the first overall pick.

 

Chances of drafting first overall both years: Even if we have the worst record in hockey both this year and next year, our chances of drafting first overall in both years is 0.25 * 0.25 = 0.0625, or 6.25%. And we are FAR from a lock to finish with the worst record in either year. That's larger than 0.00% but not by enough for me to care.

 

Chances of drafting first overall in exactly ONE of the next two years: Again, assuming we somehow have the worst record in hockey both this year and next year, we're looking at 0.25(0.75) + 0.75(0.25) = 0.375, or 37.5%. But only *IF* we're the worst team in hockey this year AND next year.

 

So even if we suck worse than the Sabres ever have and finish worst in the league two years in a row, our chances of getting AT LEAST one first overall pick are.....43.75%. In other words, not even a coin flip.

 

And are we really, really going to suck when Miller leaves? Maybe, maybe not. I still believe in Enroth. I don't think there will be a huge drop off if/when he takes over as the no.1. Who knows?

[MattPie]

Chances of drafting first overall both years: Even if we have the worst record in hockey both this year and next year, our chances of drafting first overall in both years is 0.25 * 0.25 = 0.0625, or 6.25%. And we are FAR from a lock to finish with the worst record in either year. That's larger than 0.00% but not by enough for me to care.

 

Chances of drafting first overall in exactly ONE of the next two years: Again, assuming we somehow have the worst record in hockey both this year and next year, we're looking at 0.25(0.75) + 0.75(0.25) = 0.375, or 37.5%. But only *IF* we're the worst team in hockey this year AND next year.

 

Good to have my math checked. :P

[thewookie1]

Do you guys think it would be possible to gain a 2nd 1st rounder that's in the top 5 at the deadline?

 

As it stands now:

 

Sabres: hardest pick to get :rolleyes:

Panthers: Doubt it

Oilers: Not sure what they'd want in a player but they have said that they'd like to trade it for a top D-Man (I wonder if Ehrhoff + a prospect would suffice)

Islanders: We sorta of have it already, or they hold it and we get next year's pick.

Flames: I doubt it

Blue Jackets: I could see it but I doubt they would if their still 6th from the bottom.

Flyers: Who knows?

Edited December 6, 2013 by thewookie1

[Hoss]

 

Define "solid." Being the worst team in the league only assures you a 25% chance of winning the first overall pick.

 

Chances of drafting first overall both years: Even if we have the worst record in hockey both this year and next year, our chances of drafting first overall in both years is 0.25 * 0.25 = 0.0625, or 6.25%. And we are FAR from a lock to finish with the worst record in either year. That's larger than 0.00% but not by enough for me to care.

 

Chances of drafting first overall in exactly ONE of the next two years: Again, assuming we somehow have the worst record in hockey both this year and next year, we're looking at 0.25(0.75) + 0.75(0.25) = 0.375, or 37.5%. But only *IF* we're the worst team in hockey this year AND next year.

 

So even if we suck worse than the Sabres ever have and finish worst in the league two years in a row, our chances of getting AT LEAST one first overall pick are.....43.75%. In other words, not even a coin flip.

 

And are we really, really going to suck when Miller leaves? Maybe, maybe not. I still believe in Enroth. I don't think there will be a huge drop off if/when he takes over as the no.1. Who knows?

 

Solid as in being in last still ensures you the best chance out of any team in the league to get the first pick. I don't care about the math because it gets worse if you do it for each selection following first overall. I understand that you only get a 25% chance of winning the first pick, but that's still more than anybody else.

 

Do you guys think it would be possible to gain a 2nd 1st rounder that's in the top 5 at the deadline?

 

As it stands now:

 

Sabres: hardest pick to get :rolleyes:

Panthers: Doubt it

Oilers: Not sure what they'd want in a player but they have said that they'd like to trade it for a top D-Man (I wonder if Ehrhoff + a prospect would suffice)

Islanders: We sorta of have it already, or they hold it and we get next year's pick.

Flames: I doubt it

Blue Jackets: I could see it but I doubt they would if their still 6th from the bottom.

Flyers: Who knows?

 

I think Myers or Ehrhoff would get the Oilers pick.

[sicknfla]

 

 

Solid as in being in last still ensures you the best chance out of any team in the league to get the first pick. I don't care about the math because it gets worse if you do it for each selection following first overall. I understand that you only get a 25% chance of winning the first pick, but that's still more than anybody else.

 

 

 

I think Myers or Ehrhoff would get the Oilers pick.

 

Probably have to throw in one of the 1st (if they all net us one in return) for Miller, Ott, or Moulson. Probably be a 20-30 pick.

[Hoss]

 

 

Probably have to throw in one of the 1st (if they all net us one in return) for Miller, Ott, or Moulson. Probably be a 20-30 pick.

 

Maybe. I wouldn't do that trade though. Would've last year, not this year.

Edited December 7, 2013 by DStebb

[sicknfla]

 

 

Maybe. I wouldn't do that trade though. Would've last year, not this year.

 

So much left to happen. We are all assuming Edmonton ends up #2. They could end up anywhere from 1-8 before the season is over.

[thewookie1]

I would wait a bit longer before making a deal for Edm's 1st rounder regardless.

 

My hope for 2 Top 5 picks would be so we could maybe get Reinhardt and Nylander/ great another winger.

 

Essentially setting ourselves up with a couple goal scorers for next year. Mostly its because I doubt we'll get McDavid, he'll go where the NHL wants him to go like Crosby.

[sicknfla]

I would wait a bit longer before making a deal for Edm's 1st rounder regardless.

 

My hope for 2 Top 5 picks would be so we could maybe get Reinhardt and Nylander/ great another winger.

 

Essentially setting ourselves up with a couple goal scorers for next year. Mostly its because I doubt we'll get McDavid, he'll go where the NHL wants him to go like Crosby.

 

Yeah you have to let the season play out and wait for the draft order. I predict a crazy draft.

[Hoss]

 

 

So much left to happen. We are all assuming Edmonton ends up #2. They could end up anywhere from 1-8 before the season is over.

 

Yea, but I wouldn't do the deal if it was 2 or 8.

[I am Defecting]

_{Buffalo on pace for 38 pts. I think they might break 40, though.}

[LGR4GM]

Our goal differential is -40 the next closest is Florida at -34

 

At least Florida has scored 19 more goals than our anemic offense. With 51goals scored we are 13 goals behind the next worse team Philadelphia.\

 

We suck. Plain and simple.

[papazoid]

i predict stafford will play well tonight, then disappear for another month.

[shrader]

Essentially setting ourselves up with a couple goal scorers for next year. Mostly its because I doubt we'll get McDavid, he'll go where the NHL wants him to go like Crosby.

 

So the league wanted Crosby in Pittsburgh instead of a city like New York, LA, Chicago, or Toronto? Makes sense.

[MattPie]

So the league wanted Crosby in Pittsburgh instead of a city like New York, LA, Chicago, or Toronto? Makes sense.

 

Not that I'm subscribing to this tinfoil-hattism, but Pittsburgh was, I believe, nearly bankrupt and it was assumed it was going to move around this time, wasn't it?

[apuszczalowski]

Not that I'm subscribing to this tinfoil-hattism, but Pittsburgh was, I believe, nearly bankrupt and it was assumed it was going to move around this time, wasn't it?

Yup, former player coming in to try and save them, on the verge of bankruptcy/moving to Hamilton if Balsillie had his way, etc.

Crosby comes in, win some cups and are now pretty much financially stable and bringing in some nice cash as one of the top teams in the league.

Pittsburgh is a market that the league did not want to lose

[BuffaloSoldier2010]

Anybody given any thought to the whole NJ situation? as it stands right now they would sit at 10 in the draft lottery giving them a 2.1% shot at the top pick. But they are required to forego that pick this year due to the whole kovalchuck situation. Do their chances get dispersed to the rest of the teams or does the lucky team that finishes 16 and sneaks into the playoffs also luck out and get a .5% shot at the first overall pick? anyone know what the leagues plan to account for this could be?

 

1st - 25.0%

2nd - 18.8%

3rd - 14.2%

4th - 10.7%

5th - 8.1%

6th - 6.2%

7th - 4.7%

8th - 3.6%

9th - 2.7%

10th - 2.1%

11th - 1.5%

12th - 1.1%

13th - 0.8%

14th - 0.5%

Edited December 10, 2013 by BuffaloSoldier2010

[WildCard]

Anybody given any thought to the whole NJ situation? as it stands right now they would sit at 10 in the draft lottery giving them a 2.1% shot at the top pick. But they are required to forego that pick this year due to the whole kovalchuck situation. Do their chances get dispersed to the rest of the teams or does the lucky team that finishes 16 and sneaks into the playoffs also luck out and get a .5% shot at the first overall pick? anyone know what the leagues plan to account for this could be?

 

1st - 25.0%

2nd - 18.8%

3rd - 14.2%

4th - 10.7%

5th - 8.1%

6th - 6.2%

7th - 4.7%

8th - 3.6%

9th - 2.7%

10th - 2.1%

11th - 1.5%

12th - 1.1%

13th - 0.8%

14th - 0.5%

What is this, half a lottery ball, for ants?! It should be at least....twice this size

Edited December 10, 2013 by WildCard

[LGR4GM]

Anybody given any thought to the whole NJ situation? as it stands right now they would sit at 10 in the draft lottery giving them a 2.1% shot at the top pick. But they are required to forego that pick this year due to the whole kovalchuck situation. Do their chances get dispersed to the rest of the teams or does the lucky team that finishes 16 and sneaks into the playoffs also luck out and get a .5% shot at the first overall pick? anyone know what the leagues plan to account for this could be?

 

1st - 25.0%

2nd - 18.8%

3rd - 14.2%

4th - 10.7%

5th - 8.1%

6th - 6.2%

7th - 4.7%

8th - 3.6%

9th - 2.7%

10th - 2.1%

11th - 1.5%

12th - 1.1%

13th - 0.8%

14th - 0.5%

I do believe that the lottery occurs as normal. If NJD won the pick they would forfeit it like usual.