Could the Sabres still miss the playoffs?

[Derrico]

The Sabres did lead the regular season in goals-against in 00-01. Just sayin'.

 

If you study Cup winners since 2000, only one offensively-challenged team appears to have been carried to a Cup by its defense, and that's the 02-03 Devils. They were 14th in goals, but had the best defense, during the regular season. Still best in goals against in the playoffs, but they finished third in goals. So they clearly needed both parts of their game to be near the top to win it all.

 

There aren't any other Cup winners since 2000 that finished outside the top 10 in goals in the regular season.

 

Yes, there are some other very good defensive teams that won the Cup, but none of them struggled to score goals. Detroit in 08 and Colorado in 01 and Detroit in 02 -- all three were near the top of the league in offense and defense in the regular season.

 

The playoff rankings are tougher to interpet because of smaller, and differing, sample sizes.

 

I guess what I'm saying is that it's hard to be hopeful for the Sabres' Cup chances when you consider they are 16th in goals and 5th in goals against. The NJ 03 model works, but only if the Sabres can really pick up the scoring in the playoffs.

 

You probably have to be balanced, and highly ranked, in both parts of the game, to win a Cup. If you look at the four "unbalanced" teams that won the Cup since 2000, three of the four had much worse defenses than offenses -- in the regular season. All turned things around defensively in the playoffs.

 

You need both! The numbers are interesting to look at and as usual you can make them jump through hoops, and do dirty little dances.

 

Very good analysis. However, as you said, "three of the four had much worse defenses than offenses -- in the regular season. All turned things around defensively in the playoffs." What's to say the Sabres can't reverse this and start chipping in goals come crunch time. We don't have any big scorers or guys we can rely on, however, we have good depth and balance which again, I think should help come playoff time. No one shutdown line can stop our offense.

[inkman]

We don't have any big scorers or guys we can rely on...

All-Star goalie carrying team = $6 million dollars

 

Third and 4th line players carrying the offense = $8 million dollars (just a guess)

 

$20 million dollars tied up in players you can't rely on for scoring = priceless!!!! :wallbash:

[Kristian]

Very good analysis. However, as you said, "three of the four had much worse defenses than offenses -- in the regular season. All turned things around defensively in the playoffs." What's to say the Sabres can't reverse this and start chipping in goals come crunch time. We don't have any big scorers or guys we can rely on, however, we have good depth and balance which again, I think should help come playoff time. No one shutdown line can stop our offense.

 

Well, they're gonna have to cause Ruff's teams have always had scoring issues in the regular season, barring the 05-07 "no-touch" years. In fact, apart from those two seasons, the Sabres have only broken the Goals Per Game top 10 ONCE, namely the 2003-2004 season.

 

Shutdown lines or not, our "top 6" seem to have been shut down pretty well so far.

[wjag]

Very good analysis. However, as you said, "three of the four had much worse defenses than offenses -- in the regular season. All turned things around defensively in the playoffs." What's to say the Sabres can't reverse this and start chipping in goals come crunch time. We don't have any big scorers or guys we can rely on, however, we have good depth and balance which again, I think should help come playoff time. No one shutdown line can stop our offense.

I think this is spot on. Someone is going to have to heat up for them to survive a few rounds in the playoffs. The three guys I would look to are Roy, Connolly and Pominville. It would also help immensely if one of their blueliners could get the puck all the way to the net with regularity. Be nice to see Torres become a meaningful playoff cog.

[Hank]

Still in 1st place with a couple games in hand.

 

Chances of not making the playoffs? 0%

[carpandean]

Chances of not making the playoffs? 0%

If only that were true. Chances of finishing worse than 14th: 0%. Anything beyond that has a chance. 84 points will not get them in. Under 90 points probably won't. They need to win several more before it's 0%.

[That Aud Smell]

to "answer" the original question: apparently it is 0% at this point. to wit:

 

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

 

while those percentages are of debatable value, i did quite like their presentation of "what if" data.

 

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Northeast/Sabres.html

[inkman]

My brain hurts. Sabres good, me likey...

[That Aud Smell]

My brain hurts. Sabres good, me likey...

:thumbsup:

 

(i'll be adding that to my sig block.)

[carpandean]

to "answer" the original question: apparently it is 0% at this point.

0.00104%, actually.

 

Still not 0.

 

:nana:

[spndnchz]

Seven more points are all we need to clinch a spot (as of today anyway), could be less tonight after the games.

[carpandean]

Seven more points are all we need to clinch a spot (as of today anyway), could be less tonight after the games.

Eight. If Atlanta wins out, they'd have 95 points and 42 wins. Even if the Sabres get their seven from 3 wins and an OT loss, they'd have 95 points and just 42 wins, as well. Atlanta went 2-0-2 against the Sabres (75% of points), while Buffalo went 2-2-0 (50% of points) against Atlanta (stupid asymmetric point system.) So, Atlanta would get the tiebreaker.

[That Aud Smell]

0.00104%, actually.

 

Still not 0.

 

:nana:

fair deuce. (:50 second mark, by way of context.)

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAbkh4TMRqg#t=0m40s

[vasabresfan]

I understand why this thead exists. We all think about our team that way-- waiting for that sucker punch to the gut after you start to believe again.

 

Look, I realize that nothing is final yet and that we as Buffalo fans always expect the worst. However, if you had learned in September at the start of training camp when we didn't know if:

 

• 
   
  
• Tyler Myers was going to make the team;
  
• Tim Connolly was going to play more than 15 games;
  
• Ryan Miller was going to make the olympic team and what kind of fatigue factor there would be;
  
• Henrik Tallinder was still a viable defenseman in the NHL;
  
• Jochen Hecht was going to ever come close to the value of his contract;
  
• and a hundred other questions about what was believed to be a marginally talented team;
  

 

that we would be nine points up on the division on March 22, wouldn't you have been just a little happy?

 

This team may not win the division (possible) and may not even make the playoffs (possible but unlikely), but for once I am going to try to enjoy this without thinking about the rain cloud on the horizon. For the first time in almost three years, I will probably get to sit on my back porch, crack open a beer, and watch an NHL playoff game that causes me to hold my breath everytime something happens. I missed that feeling and I'm glad it is coming back.

[PromoTheRobot]

The Sabres were in a huge slump when this thread began.

 

PTR

[Derrico]

Just heard on the FAN 590 in Toronto an interview with the Ottawa Senators play-by-play. They were talking about how it might be a blessing that Ottawa falls into 6th spot as the sabres would be a lesser opponent than Pitsburg or New Jersey. I took that as a huge slap in the face. I would not want to run into the Penguins either but I really believe that the sabres are a more complete team than the Devils. Not to ruin anyones parade, I just thought that I'd mention this without starting a new thread. Only a few more short weeks until playoff time. Let's Go Buffalo!

[That Aud Smell]

For the first time in almost three years, I will probably get to sit on my back porch, crack open a beer, and watch an NHL playoff game that causes me to hold my breath everytime something happens. I missed that feeling and I'm glad it is coming back.

+1,000,000

[Kristian]

Just heard on the FAN 590 in Toronto an interview with the Ottawa Senators play-by-play. They were talking about how it might be a blessing that Ottawa falls into 6th spot as the sabres would be a lesser opponent than Pitsburg or New Jersey. I took that as a huge slap in the face. I would not want to run into the Penguins either but I really believe that the sabres are a more complete team than the Devils. Not to ruin anyones parade, I just thought that I'd mention this without starting a new thread. Only a few more short weeks until playoff time. Let's Go Buffalo!

 

They own us, how can you blame them for wanting to face us?

 

Until Buffalo starts beating this team of cheapshotting assclowns, this is how it's gonna be unfortunately.

[Dave Dryden]

Just heard on the FAN 590 in Toronto an interview with the Ottawa Senators play-by-play. They were talking about how it might be a blessing that Ottawa falls into 6th spot as the sabres would be a lesser opponent than Pitsburg or New Jersey. I took that as a huge slap in the face. I would not want to run into the Penguins either but I really believe that the sabres are a more complete team than the Devils. Not to ruin anyones parade, I just thought that I'd mention this without starting a new thread. Only a few more short weeks until playoff time. Let's Go Buffalo!

I think they should worry more about finishing in the top 8, rather than looking forward to a favorable first round opponent. Ottawa, with the exception of that one torrid hot streak, has been bad. And should they finish 7th or 8th, I promise they'll get a good first round opponent. And here's hoping they finish 9th.

[That Aud Smell]

They own us, how can you blame them for wanting to face us?

not in the least.

 

Until Buffalo starts beating this team of cheapshotting assclowns, this is how it's gonna be unfortunately.

i'm intrigued by the fact that assclown escaped the cursing filter.

 

Ottawa ... here's hoping they finish 9th.

hear, hear.

[PASabreFan]

not in the least.

 

 

i'm intrigued by the fact that assclown escaped the cursing filter.

 

 

hear, hear.

 

Boycock, girlcock, e i e i o.

[That Aud Smell]

Boycock, girlcock, e i e i o.

i'm not familiar with that phraseology, but i infer that i'm being chided for merely giving a second to the thoughts of others.

 

if that's the case, then, PA, please do "swivel" as the lads across the pond would say.

[PASabreFan]

No, I was just testing the filter.

 

The reference is to a classic scene in "Curb Your Enthusiasm."

 

What is this doing swivel you speak of?

[carpandean]

What is this doing swivel you speak of?

Swivel

 

Hmmm filter even got the search term. Try this one.

 

Loosely equivalent to the old "sit and spin"

[That Aud Smell]

No, I was just testing the filter.

my bad - i should've picked that up. for whatever reason, i was getting a "mutual master-bation society" implication. which would have been tough, but fair.

 

The reference is to a classic scene in "Curb Your Enthusiasm."

one of my biggest pop culture deficits. that and mad men. oh, and the sopranos. basically anything on hbo or showtime. (i suck.)

 

What is this doing swivel you speak of?

carp seems to have covered it. one other thing i recall is how the limeys i used to run with would flip the bird (that's our expression, not theirs (heck, they use "bird" to reference women (hence, mccartney's "black bird" was an ode to the civil rights movement))) by keeping one digit of the index, ring, and pinky fingers up (rather than a big middle protruding from a fist). i always thought their middle-finger gesture was weak as a result; they insisted that the visual element was appropriate given the invitation to sit down and have a spin (the index and ring fingers would, presumably, provide a place for the invitee to rest their haunches).