2008-09 Prediction time, because boredum has set in

[Goodfella25]

I don't think we can expect any more changes to the roster. Other than a few possible surprises such as Gerbe making the team, we should pretty much have an idea of how this team will look. So based on what you can gather, what is your prediction for this season?

 

Here are some points:

 

1. Connolly is once again being COUNTED ON as our #2. Many of us don't understand why. What exactly makes management believe he will magically find a way to stay healthy all season? How can the team move forward and trust that situation? And I hope no one mentions Hecht. He's not a centerman by trade--he's a winger. He shouldn't be plan B.

 

2. No major changes in the offseason. True, the team just barely missed the playoffs last season, but an entire season minus Campbell while only adding a backup goalie and Craig Rivet obviously doesn't look like enough *on paper* to make that next step.

 

3. How much of a difference can a year make? I think many fans will be saying the team naturally has to be better since they have a year under their belts without the beloved former captains. They will say the team is young and has the potential to be much better, and they will be as part of the natural progression of a young hockey club. My question would have to be: if potential is associated with unproven talent or untapped ability, isn't it also just as likely that players will stay the same, if not get worse?

[BetweenThePipes00]

I voted that they would get better and make the playoffs ... I'm not predicting greatness, but I think it is a playoff team. To address some of your points:

 

1. Connolly is once again being COUNTED ON as our #2. Many of us don't understand why. What exactly makes management believe he will magically find a way to stay healthy all season? How can the team move forward and trust that situation? And I hope no one mentions Hecht. He's not a centerman by trade--he's a winger. He shouldn't be plan B.

This is my biggest concern about the season, but I also think there is a 50-50 chance he stays healthy most of the year. If not, I think they can get by with hecht until they can make a deal. I would prefer they deal from a position of strength and not when they have a bigger hole there, but Max's value can only go up also so ... they wouldn't be the first team ever to make a trade to fill a hole after an injury. It's the kind of risk they have to take to stay within their budget.

 

2. No major changes in the offseason. True, the team just barely missed the playoffs last season, but an entire season minus Campbell while only adding a backup goalie and Craig Rivet obviously doesn't look like enough *on paper* to make that next step.

I think you are overvaluing Campbell a bit ... they were not a playoff team with him last season. basically, they are trading Campbell, Pratt and T-Bo for Rivet, Sekera, Numminen and Lalime and have Weber in reserve ... I am OK with that trade-off. hell, Lalime being average and getting Miller some rest might make up the 4 points to get them in the playoffs by himself. If they get 60 solid games from Teppo and he settles things down, I think they are better on the back end. Not GREAT, not Cup-quality, but better.

3. How much of a difference can a year make? I think many fans will be saying the team naturally has to be better since they have a year under their belts without the beloved former captains. They will say the team is young and has the potential to be much better, and they will be as part of the natural progression of a young hockey club. My question would have to be: if potential is associated with unproven talent or untapped ability, isn't it also just as likely that players will stay the same, if not get worse?

the nature of young guys is that they do not all pan out ... Every team has guys get better and get worse ... if you are going to argue "yeah but they could get worse" or "they will stay the same" for every guy, then the standings would look basically like they did last season. I don't think they need ALL the young guys to take big steps to make tha playoffs ... they need Sekera to take a step, they need Stafford to take a step, but they don't need someone to come out of nowhere and score 40 goals.

 

All your points are legitimate concerns, I just don't think they were that far away and like the changes. I wish they had done more, but they got better.

[Taro T]

I don't think we can expect any more changes to the roster. Other than a few possible surprises such as Gerbe making the team, we should pretty much have an idea of how this team will look. So based on what you can gather, what is your prediction for this season?

 

Here are some points:

 

1. Connolly is once again being COUNTED ON as our #2. Many of us don't understand why. What exactly makes management believe he will magically find a way to stay healthy all season? How can the team move forward and trust that situation? And I hope no one mentions Hecht. He's not a centerman by trade--he's a winger. He shouldn't be plan B.

 

2. No major changes in the offseason. True, the team just barely missed the playoffs last season, but an entire season minus Campbell while only adding a backup goalie and Craig Rivet obviously doesn't look like enough *on paper* to make that next step.

 

3. How much of a difference can a year make? I think many fans will be saying the team naturally has to be better since they have a year under their belts without the beloved former captains. They will say the team is young and has the potential to be much better, and they will be as part of the natural progression of a young hockey club. My question would have to be: if potential is associated with unproven talent or untapped ability, isn't it also just as likely that players will stay the same, if not get worse?

I expect them to be ~5th seed w/ ~100 points. (Moe-ray-all and Pittsburgh are probably the top 2 and I'd expect Washington to come out of the South. Strangers are probably 4th depending on their D and if Gomez and Drury can make it their team now that Jaromir and Shanny are gone.) (Surprising myself thinking the Strangers will be strong, as I usually view them as a serious product of hype, and that is usually right; but Lundqvist moves them up a notch or 2.)

 

Buffalo could be in the mix w/ Wash and NY, or more likely they'll be near the top of that crowd of next tier teams (Otters, Bruins, Tampa, Joisey, and Canes). (EDIT: Phlyers are in that 2nd tier as well, but I do expect them to miss the playoffs.) IF Lydman and Hank revert to '06 form, this is a very good team.

 

Responding to your points:

 

1. I would absolutely like to have seen another #2 center brought in. I don't think it is as foregone a conclusion as most that Timmy will get his bell rung or tear something, but the team would definitely be stronger w/ 1 more center regardless of whether Tim plays.

 

2. 1 other major change you didn't mention. Teppo. There is no doubt in my mind that the team makes the playoffs last year w/ Teppo. (They only needed to convert 2 L's into W's to do it last year, w/ a devestating loss of leadership.)

 

3. 1 year can make a TON of difference. The young players are individually going to be better this year than they were last year just by being 1 year older (possible exception being Sekera, as most players have the sophomore slump). They will be a year stronger, and closer to their primes; so no, for the most part the young guys should not regress or stagnate. The team did not play an extra 2 months of hockey for the 1st time in 3 seasons, so the minor injuries / aches should be healed up. The pro game is a brutal game (even the version played by the Sabres, ;) ) and playing nearly an extra quarter season each of the previous 2 years took a physical toll. The mental toll of losing 2 captains and the defensive captain is also a year removed. And finally, ttbomk, Ryan Miller doesn't have any close relatives in hospice to keep his focus away from the ice. (Boy those 2 Comrie games to start the season sure look big right now.)

[Bmwolf21]

This is my biggest concern about the season, but I also think there is a 50-50 chance he stays healthy most of the year. If not, I think they can get by with hecht until they can make a deal. I would prefer they deal from a position of strength and not when they have a bigger hole there, but Max's value can only go up also so ... they wouldn't be the first team ever to make a trade to fill a hole after an injury. It's the kind of risk they have to take to stay within their budget.

A 50-50 chance that he stays healthy? :blink:

 

Look, if we're stuck with him as our no.2 center, then I pray he plays 75+ games. But given his recent history - missing 133 games since the lockout - I'd put the odds of him playing a full year somewhere around 25-30%.

 

If he is the no.2 center this year then hope he plays 75+, prepare for 40+ missed, and consider anything over 50 games played a bonus.

[nobody]

2. 1 other major change you didn't mention. Teppo. There is no doubt in my mind that the team makes the playoffs last year w/ Teppo. (They only needed to convert 2 L's into W's to do it last year, w/ a devestating loss of leadership.)

 

 

This is mostly what I would have mentioned. The Sabres were very close to being in the playoffs last year. A goal here, a save there and they would have reached the playoffs. With Teppo back and now with Rivet will, hopefully, lead to a large improvement in goals against (along with, once again - hopefully, a rested Miller in net.) That leads to the playoffs. They won't be one of the top clubs in the league and they won't win the division but they will make the playoffs and that is all that matters because you never know how things will turn out at that point.

[nucci]

I just think their mindset will be better. There was so much crap going on at the beginning, it did not seem they could focus on hockey. Every loss came with a Drury or Briere question. I think they play more relaxed. Whether it's better we will have to wait but I am optimistic they will be.

[nfreeman]

One more tough SOB at forward, preferably center, and I'd be sure that "top of the east" would be the correct prediction. But I picked it anyway. Here's why:

 

1. I think Rivet and Teppo will each contribute a lot.

 

2. I think #1 will enable Miller, Tallinder and Lydman to each play significantly better than they did last year.

 

3. I think most, if not all, of the guys in their contract years (Spacek, Connolly, Kotalik and Max) will have good-to-very-good years.

 

4. Speaking of Max, I think he'll either have a bounce-back year for us or fetch something pretty decent in trade.

 

5. I'm cautiously optimistic that Vanek, Stafford and Gaustad will each be better than he was last year.

 

6. We still have Lindy, who, I would guess, will be both better rested and highly motivated to get back to contender status.

 

7. I think that this off-season, especially if Pominville is extended, has gone a long way towards lifting the dark cloud that hung over the team last year due to last summer's CF. Last year's team was burned out, stomach-punched and under pressure that it wasn't ready for all year. Rivet and Teppo will make a big difference at the back end, and if Roy, Pommer, Goose, Hecht and one or 2 others can step up and be leaders up front, we will be right back in it.

[stenbaro]

I predicted last august no playoffs..I believe the addition of Rivet alone is worth 8 points..The Sabres make the playoffs..But they wont go far..They will be setting themselves up for a nice cup run in 2 offseasons..We have lot to look forward to just not yet......

[darksabre]

Stu Barnes.

[McJeff215]

I really enjoy prediction threads for some reason. I voted with the popular crowd. Good enough to make the playoffs, but not top seed yet. My reasoning...

 

I think defensively, we'll be better off. We were able to land goals last year, its just that the other guys just did it more. Rivet seems like a much more 'defensive defenseman' than Soupy was. Throw in Teppo and the chance that Miller might get a break every now and then? It seems we pick up a couple W's due to our defensive game alone..

 

Secondly, the FO has done a bit to show the team they want to build a winner. Some of the signings (*especially* Miller) will help to remove a lot of the distraction that we had going into last year. Additionally, the "new guard" isn't going in with sky high expectations... they simply have to grow more as a continuation from last season. That peels off a lot of pressure and results in a better game...

 

I actually think Timmy stays healthy this year.. Though it would be nice to have a bit more of trust there.

[SabresFan526]

I'm predicting the Sabres are better than last year and are a playoff team. I predicted last year that they would miss the playoffs, but I do think they make it this year. Like a lot of people have mentioned, a few keys for me:

 

1. Teppo and Rivet will make the blueline significantly better defensively. Teppo's leadership and transition offense will probably add another 25 goals offensively (which people tend to completely forget his impact on the offensive side of the game with his breakout passes)

 

2. The team is better prepared mentally going into this season. No Briere and Drury hanging over their heads. Miller is signed long term with no ill relatives. If Pominville signs pretty soon, everyone will be focused mentally going into this season with no distractions.

 

3. A year older and more mature for this young team makes them much stronger. The leadership and experience coming from the blueline will really help the young players

 

4. Contract years for quite a few guys will give them incentive to play hard this year specifically Stafford, Connolly, Kotalik, Max, Spacek, and potentially Pominville if he's not signed to an extension before the end of the year.

 

Given Connolly's lack of durability, I'd really liked to have seen the Sabres go out and get one more center because using Hecht as a backup is just not a good idea. Even with Connolly on the team, I'd still rather have another center on his line to take faceoffs as he is absolutely wretched on draws. And, Connolly's got some great vision and is a beautiful passer, but even when he's healthy he lacks consistency in the scoring department. As a whole this team needs to be more consistent next year starting with the forwards, and especially true of Hank and Toni. If the team is more consistent and puts in a solid effort every night, they'll be a playoff team and could go far, but right now, I'm predicting a playoff team and see where it goes from there.

[awill29]

1. This offense is hinging on the health of Tim Connolly. Healthy, we're easily a top 10 scoring team, maybe top 5. This guy is unbelievable talent, possibly the most talented player on our team. We need to look out for him. I do think that we added a little bit of toughness with the addition of Rivet and the loss of Kalinin, plus Kaleta should see nice time on L4 this year. I don't think that we'll be bossed around as much, and I think it's fair to project 60-65 games out of Connolly.

 

2. I really think that Max will bounce back. Last year of a nice contract, and he's looking at a pretty good drop off in pay if he doesn't get the job done this year. I'll say ~20 goals, 30 assists is acceptable from him, giving his talent. Again, having Connolly in the lineup will take some pressure off other guys, including Max.

 

3. Our defense is pretty solid. Tallydman should rebound well as a #2 pair; they were counted on too much after the departure of Campbell last year. They can't cut it as #1, but they should be a nice complement to Spacek-Rivet. Steady as she goes Teppo back in the lineup and up-and-coming Sekera is a rather good pairing for the 3 spot.

 

4. Goaltending...should definitely be better. Miller was getting knocked down like it was his job last year. Rivet, Kaleta, and Weber should have teams thinking twice about taking shots at him. Patty Lalime is a good backup, probably second-best available on the FA market. 15-20 games out of him would be great, especially if 7-10 of those came later in the year. Miller will be counted on again this year, but with a better D and a better backup, he should have a good bounce-back year before hitting the big pay-day next season.

 

5. I think the darkhorse on this team right now is Stafford. Last season, expectations were lofty for him and he folded a bit under the pressure. He's got very good talent, good hands, a nice shot, and decent vision. I'd look for him to hit the 25 goal mark while seeing some time on the third line.

 

All in all, the Sabres will bounce back and grab a 5/6 seed in the playoffs. Definitely a better, tougher team with more leadership. I'd expect that being in a contract year will put some pressure on Connolly and Max. I'll say 5th in the East, around 100 points, and they'll sneak into the EC semi's. After that, who knows. We still have a bright future, and I think that in 09-10 we'll see the Sabres climb back to being an elite team in the East.

[Two or less]

^^ Devendorf, i agree with all your points.

 

The offense relies on Max, Connolly and Stafford. Not only do we need these guys healthy, but also need them to produce. I think Connolly will have a big season. I am not sure about Max or Stafford. Both really disappointed me last season. Something still tells me that Max will be gone by training camp. I don't know why. However if he stays, i am confident that Lindy Ruff has plan B options in case in case a Max or Stafford struggle again unlike last season. I think Clarke MacArthur and even Nathan Gerbe could have an impact at some point during the season.

 

I don't think Gerbe will last past Christmas in Portland. He's just too good. Last year when Connolly, Max and Stafford hit the wall, we had no response. MacArthur is hungry for success and we have other talent in Portland. Last season we needed to rely on guys like Mike Ryan and unproven MacArthur. Clarke is a year older and i think he's ready for this stage now.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

What's the name of the Simpsons' Dad who doesn't make much sense?

What's the name of the four base hit that clears the right field fence?

What's the name of the Greek who penned the classic the Odyssey?

What's the name of the Sabres fan who answered 1 through 3?

 

Homer....Homer....they're all a bunch of Homers

If you still do believe and don't constantly heave..you're nothing but a Gomer

If Quinny and Darcy and Lindy still get you to buy into this Teeeeeam!!!

Then forgive me for putting this gun in my mouth, I'll do my best not to scream.........

 

 

I think I am going to write "Buffalo Sabres, The Musical". Then I'll charge you all $60 a seat for 60 minutes of below average product!

[wjag]

I went with same as last year. You can't look at this in a vacuum. You have to look at what everyone else did as well. I think the Sabres will be a couple of points better. It's difficult to predict whether those couple of points will be enough to qualify for the post season or just miss it. They didn't do enough to improve significantly from last year's squad. In fact, they look like last year's squad with a couple of player change outs.

 

So they'll be in the 90-95 points range. Whether that's enough will really depend on the Flyers, Rangers, Bolts, Canes, Habs, Sens, Devils, Caps and Bruins.

[nucci]

What's the name of the Simpsons' Dad who doesn't make much sense?

What's the name of the four base hit that clears the right field fence?

What's the name of the Greek who penned the classic the Odyssey?

What's the name of the Sabres fan who answered 1 through 3?

 

Homer....Homer....they're all a bunch of Homers

If you still do believe and don't constantly heave..you're nothing but a Gomer

If Quinny and Darcy and Lindy still get you to buy into this Teeeeeam!!!

Then forgive me for putting this gun in my mouth, I'll do my best not to scream.........

I think I am going to write "Buffalo Sabres, The Musical". Then I'll charge you all $60 a seat for 60 minutes of below average product!

Make it easy on all of us and just leave.

[Corp000085]

82-0-0

[BetweenThePipes00]

^^ Devendorf, i agree with all your points.

 

The offense relies on Max, Connolly and Stafford. Not only do we need these guys healthy, but also need them to produce. I think Connolly will have a big season. I am not sure about Max or Stafford. Both really disappointed me last season. Something still tells me that Max will be gone by training camp. I don't know why. However if he stays, i am confident that Lindy Ruff has plan B options in case in case a Max or Stafford struggle again unlike last season. I think Clarke MacArthur and even Nathan Gerbe could have an impact at some point during the season.

 

I don't think Gerbe will last past Christmas in Portland. He's just too good. Last year when Connolly, Max and Stafford hit the wall, we had no response. MacArthur is hungry for success and we have other talent in Portland. Last season we needed to rely on guys like Mike Ryan and unproven MacArthur. Clarke is a year older and i think he's ready for this stage now.

 

If the offense "relies on Max, Connolly and Stafford," how is it that they finished fourth in goals for last season when all three of them were disappointments on some level? these guys bouncing back certainly could make them more consistent, and that would be good, but I would not say they make or break anything. Being better in their own end and Miller bouncing back are much more important, IMO. The scoring will be there.

[ROC Sabres]

82-0-0

I'd settle for 70-12-0

[Buffalo Wings]

2. 1 other major change you didn't mention. Teppo. There is no doubt in my mind that the team makes the playoffs last year w/ Teppo. (They only needed to convert 2 L's into W's to do it last year, w/ a devestating loss of leadership.)

 

Agreed to the 100th power. I think at the beginning of the season, everyone was focused on the lack of you-know-who and the other you-know-who, but Teppo brought the same thing to these guys. The fact that he was instrumental in the '06 playoffs alone shows me that they needed to bring him back for one more year.

 

3. 1 year can make a TON of difference. The young players are individually going to be better this year than they were last year just by being 1 year older (possible exception being Sekera, as most players have the sophomore slump). They will be a year stronger, and closer to their primes; so no, for the most part the young guys should not regress or stagnate. The team did not play an extra 2 months of hockey for the 1st time in 3 seasons, so the minor injuries / aches should be healed up. The pro game is a brutal game (even the version played by the Sabres, ;) ) and playing nearly an extra quarter season each of the previous 2 years took a physical toll. The mental toll of losing 2 captains and the defensive captain is also a year removed. And finally, ttbomk, Ryan Miller doesn't have any close relatives in hospice to keep his focus away from the ice. (Boy those 2 Comrie games to start the season sure look big right now.)

 

That's huge to me...similar to Bills' Superbowl years where they were playing into late January every year. It takes a toll on you physically and mentally, so while you don't want the extra 2 months of rest, the players probably won't be complaining about it too much.

 

Last October, it didn't seem to worrisome that the Comrie games were going to hurt them. This why they need to get out of the gate well and get some early confidence going.

[carpandean]

82-0-0

Two years ago, my friend said that they would go 82-0 the night of their first game. They beat the Canes and he said "see, 82 and 0!" Two days later, we were at a wedding reception, listening to the Montreal game. The Sabres went down 2-0, then 3-1 and finally 4-2. At that point, we were saying things like "oh well, 81 and 1 isn't bad." Even when Briere made it 4-3, we didn't think it would happen, but with 15 seconds left Max tied it up. We went nuts! When Max and Vanek scored in the shootout, we were yelling "82 and 0!" For seven more games, we thought he might be right.

 

 

 

As for this year's team:

- I agree that Teppo and Craig Rivet make the defense better. Craig brings some balance by adding a physical aspect, but not at a big cost in skating and puck moving ability. Spacek/Rivet will be a seriously good pairing (hey, in NHL 08, they get a +3 for chemistry :thumbsup: .) Both Teppo and Craig bring a veteran presence to the blue line and to the team.

 

- We had the offensive ability, but not the mental toughness to hold the close games. Adding some veteran presence will help -- though, I agree that they could use one more up front (center) -- and so should the taste of missing the playoffs (some of the young guys had been spoiled.)

 

- Lalime has shown that he is capable of being a strong backup and it seems like they have realized that they need to use him more than they used Tbo.

 

- They've got some weak links that are in contract years with pressure building in Portland. If they want to be with the Sabres next year, they will have to seriously step up.

 

 

 

I do have to agree (to some extent) with Stenbaro that, while they will be better this year, we'll see even more improvement going into 2009-10 and maybe even 2010-11. They've been locking up some key players (and Rivet came with three seasons), some of their question marks with bigger $-value contracts are up either next year or the year after and they've got a strong pool of kids coming up. If they get Pommer locked up soon, then the future is looking bright. They will still have to make the right moves when holes open up, but the core is looking good.

[Goodfella25]

If they get Pommer locked up soon, then the future is looking bright. They will still have to make the right moves when holes open up, but the core is looking good.

 

This is another great point because it brings up the captaincy issue. If they lock Pommer up long term like they did with Roy, it is safe to say that the lockerroom should belong to Roy and Pommer. They are the guys now, and they are legit scorers. I'd really like to see one if not both of them make that extra step this season to lead the team and battle for the captaincy. They have to make it their locker room and take on that leadership role.

 

Like you mentioned, with the talent we have coming up in the system, you have to figure some of the so-called "dead weight" forwards are on their way out within the next 1-2 years. When the new blood comes in, they will look to Roy and Pommer for guidance and leadership.

[Taro T]

What's the name of the Simpsons' Dad who doesn't make much sense?

What's the name of the four base hit that clears the right field fence?

What's the name of the Greek who penned the classic the Odyssey?

What's the name of the Sabres fan who answered 1 through 3?

 

Homer....Homer....they're all a bunch of Homers

If you still do believe and don't constantly heave..you're nothing but a Gomer

If Quinny and Darcy and Lindy still get you to buy into this Teeeeeam!!!

Then forgive me for putting this gun in my mouth, I'll do my best not to scream.........

I think I am going to write "Buffalo Sabres, The Musical". Then I'll charge you all $60 a seat for 60 minutes of below average product!

:w00t:

 

That, was pretty funny. Good job. I don't necessarily agree w/ it, but it was humorous.

 

 

Just so I'm clear on this, you're not picking out your spot on the parade route just yet? ;)

[nobody]

If the offense "relies on Max, Connolly and Stafford," how is it that they finished fourth in goals for last season when all three of them were disappointments on some level? these guys bouncing back certainly could make them more consistent, and that would be good, but I would not say they make or break anything. Being better in their own end and Miller bouncing back are much more important, IMO. The scoring will be there.

 

 

Right - scoring I'm not too worried about. If the team gets more production from additional players this season with similar numbers from the main scorers from last season then the team will easily match or exceed the fourth place goals for standing in the league. Where the team needs to vastly improve - which if all goes well will occur due to Teppo & Rivet - is goals against where they were ranked 22nd last season. Cut the goals against by 20 -30 goals and they are in the top 10 in that department which will easily add 10-15 points in the standings.

[Bmwolf21]

Right - scoring I'm not too worried about. If the team gets more production from additional players this season with similar numbers from the main scorers from last season then the team will easily match or exceed the fourth place goals for standing in the league. Where the team needs to vastly improve - which if all goes well will occur due to Teppo & Rivet - is goals against where they were ranked 22nd last season. Cut the goals against by 20 -30 goals and they are in the top 10 in that department which will easily add 10-15 points in the standings.

They were 22nd in goals against but they still averaged under 3 goals/game against.

 

Bottom line is both offense and defense have to be more consistent this year. If the offense is more consistent, they win a few more games and they're in the playoffs.