GDT Sabres at Penguins 11/26/25 7pm MSG WGR550

[kas23]

12 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

I'm not saying UPL had an awful game. But we have seen a lot of games where the Sabres were 'goalied' this year. Where non-Vezina winners made incredible saves that led to a Sabres loss.  I need UPL to have some games like that. If he did, they likely would have had 1 or 2 goals tonight. He didn't play awful, but he was the 2nd best goalie on the ice tonight.

Agree. We seem to get goalied a lot. But, we never seem to do the goaliing, at least when UPL is in net. We don’t need a perfect goalie, but at least one who has the ability to steal some games here and there. This isn’T UPL. 

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

Statistically regarding UPL. And yeah, I know defenders of him are going to say stats aren't perfect. I agree, they aren't, but they are what we have other than our 'eye test'.

Looking at his play a little differently..how many goals does he actually allow vs the 'exected goals' allowed for each game? Expected goals being statistically the quality of all shots he took translated into a league average of how many goals would/should be scored.  (again, it may not be perfect but its probably the single best stat we have)

And yes, last night might be an indication of the fact the stat isn't perfect, the expected goals allowed doesn't take into consideration blatant bad plays by the defense. But over the course of a period, a game or even a series of games, the number tends to 'even out'.

Vs Pitt:  3 goals allowed, 1.09 expected goals allowed

Vs Car:  1 goal allowed, 2.71 expected goals allowed

Vs Chi:  3 goals allowed, 1.86 expected goals allowed

Vs Col: 3 goals allowed, 2.97 expected goals allowed

Vs StL:  2 goals allowed, 0.67 expected goals allowed

Vs Wash: 3 goals allowed, 2.02 expected goals allowed

Vs Tor:  4 goals allowed, 1.58 expected goals allowed.

So with the exception of the Carolina game, he has allowed as many, more more goals compared to the quality and quanity of the shots taken against him.

Ellis has a a negative expected goals above average stat right now, just like UPL does. The difference is most of Ellis' bad number comes from one game that brought his whole season down.  UPL is just pretty consistently below average.

Really wanted Lyon to get the start last night, but knew it would be UPL between the pipes.  And UPL's defenders can point to things that his teammates did to put him in the point that he had to make saves, but that's kind of the entire point of the position.  If nobody makes a mistake, you are going to face only about 5 high danger chances per game.  But people make mistakes, it's a very quick paced sport and your opponent is taking away time and space, and the good goalies bail their teammates out more often than not.

And if the game situation is removed, UPL didn't give up any "bad" goals.  Each of the shots that beat him had a factor that made it more challanging than a normal save; but NONE of them were of the "well, Hasek could've stopped it, maybe, but mere mortals didn't have a chance" variety. 

Yes, the 1st goal was tipped, but the shot was from nearly 10' above the circle and Bryam's stick was at or outside the circle too.  If UPL's entire body isn't moving towards the far post, he very likely makes that save even though it was deflected.

Yes, his teammates didn't help him on the 2nd goal, but he's the one that overreacted to the initial shot that went wide, which led to him having to overreact when the puck bounced off the boards into his skates which led to him dropping his stick.  Once he dropped his stick, he was toast, but he didn't need to be.  Stay square and plan on closing the 5 hole with his legs rather than his blocker and that play continues.  But he continued the overreaction and tried to make the save with his blocker which delayed the closing of the 5 hole.

Yes, his teammates made a poor line change on the 3rd goal and Power didn't step up into the deflector in time to keep him from directing the puck at the net, but UPL only had to move 1/2 way across the crease to get in front of that shot.  It wasn't labelled to the far post.  If he isn't fully commited to the shot on a 3 on 1, he makes that save.  It wasn't a mini 2 on 1 that he should expect his D-man to be able to prevent the shot from the pass, but it was a mini 3 on 1; he has to be cognizant that there's a good chance he's facing a shot from his left side and can't 100% commit to the puck carrier being the shooter.

But, when the game situation is included in the evaluation, all 3 were goals that the team really needed him to figure out how to make that stop.

The good news is that UPL didn't give up any WTF Specials.  The bad news is, all 3 of those goals came while the outcome of the game was still in doubt.  The 1st came on only the 3 shot his teammates let get through to him in a scoreless game late in the 1st; the 2nd came literally 30 seconds after his teammates had tied the score; and the 3rd came as time was dwindling when already trailing by 1.  That 3rd goal made it an almost certainty that they'd have to pull the goalie at the end and they had given up 8 EN goals this year and have scored 0 6v5 goals this year.  That stat is now 9 against 0 for.

He isn't looking confident from the get go in any of these games.  He's overreacting and fighting to make the 1st stop.  He's seemed to be settling in in the 2nd period but he's still isn't looking confident when the game is getting tight.  No idea how they give him confidence in himself.  That has to come from within.  And the shame of that is they set him up to be in a spot to believe in himself and get the team to believe in him too which is that feedback loop that gets him rolling (at least until he runs out of gas 1-2 months later).

[Broken Ankles]

10 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

 

Now, the thing I really want to point out is WTF is Thompson doing on the second Pittsburgh goal? I see some of you bitching about UPL out of position (and he was) but go look at it again and look at Thompson. He's right in front, perfect position to get his stick in the lane and prevent or block the shot and he just floats around between players achieving nothing. Big guy like that with his reach, how does he just do nothing there? These details boggle my mind with this team cause they happen over and over again. Power of course was weak on the third goal but nothing new there. 

 

Watch the highlight again.  Tage had good positioning in front as there were two Penguins on the left of UPL down low.  There were also two Sabres much, much closer to Rust.  Benson dives and whiffs on the puck.  Byrum is next closest and offers a lame attempt at a shot block.  Offering us a glimpse of his poor defensive skills.  Tage was not great overall, but this goal was less on him than others.  

[Pimlach]

Well its Thanksgiving morning.  Reading the thread it feels more like Thanksgiving mourning.  

Blame UPL, Timmins, Power, Tage, whoever and whatever - it was a team loss.   It was another game that they looked not ready and unwilling.  They are just not a hungry team.   

The Sabre sit last in their division and last in their conference on this celebratory day.  

They are only 6 points out of the final playoff spot but the hard part is they have to pass 8 teams in the standings to get there.  The cannot seem to get a winning streak going, two games is not a winning streak.  

They need to start winning at a pace of 2 out of 3 games over the next month to crawl up the standings.  Otherwise things will look very bleak by Christmas.  

 

Edited 5 hours ago by Pimlach

[mjd1001]

51 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Well its Thanksgiving morning.  Reading the thread it feels more like Thanksgiving mourning.  

Blame UPL, Timmins, Power, Tage, whoever and whatever - it was a team loss.   It was another game that they looked not ready and unwilling.  They are just not a hungry team.   

The Sabre sit last in their division and last in their conference on this celebratory day.  

They are only 6 points out of the final playoff spot but the hard part is they have to pass 8 teams in the standings to get there.  The cannot seem to get a winning streak going, two games is not a winning streak.  

They need to start winning at a pace of 2 out of 3 games over the next month to crawl up the standings.  Otherwise things will look very bleak by Christmas.  

 

They have 13 games between now and Christmas, 16 between now and the end of the year. Lets just use the end of December (16 more games) for easy math.  By then they will have played 39 games.  78 possible points.  The last playoff spot is usually around 58% of the points, and right now it is tracking almost exactly that way.

So by the end of December, they want to be on pace for 45 points.

They currently have 22.

Can they get 23 points in the next 16 games?  That would put them right on track to where they need for the math.

Even 19 or 20 points will not get them to .580, but will have them gaining ground.

If they finish the calendar year with 41 points they are 'still in it'. Finish with 45 points and they are right on track.

The target record should be something like 9-5-2 between now and the end of the year. Not sure this team can do that though.  Maybe if/when Norris comes back and he plays well.....

 

 

Edited 4 hours ago by mjd1001

[Pimlach]

1 minute ago, mjd1001 said:

They have 13 games between now and Christmas, 16 between now and the end of the year. Lets just use the end of December (16 more games) for easy math.  By then they will have played 39 games.  78 possible points.  The last playoff spot is usually around 58% of the points, and right now it is tracking almost exactly that way.

So by the end of December, they want to be on pace for 45 points.

They currently have 22.

Can they get 23 points in the next 16 games?  That would put them right on track to where they need for the math.

Even 19 or 20 points will not get them to .580, but will have them gaining ground.

If they finish the calendar year with 41 points they are 'still in it'. Finish with 45 points and they are right on track.

 

 

You are essentially saying what I said.  They need to starting winning at a 2 of 3 pace.  

[PASabreFan]

58 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Well its Thanksgiving morning.  Reading the thread it feels more like Thanksgiving mourning.  

Blame UPL, Timmins, Power, Tage, whoever and whatever - it was a team loss.   It was another game that they looked not ready and unwilling.  They are just not a hungry team.   

The Sabre sit last in their division and last in their conference on this celebratory day.  

They are only 6 points out of the final playoff spot but the hard part is they have to pass 8 teams in the standings to get there.  The cannot seem to get a winning streak going, two games is not a winning streak.  

They need to start winning at a pace of 2 out of 3 games over the next month to crawl up the standings.  Otherwise things will look very bleak by Christmas.  

 

Only five points back.

Aaaaaaand just nine points out of first in the conference. They can cut that deficit with the Devs to seven tomorrow. And they will. NJ will be traveling day of game?

[Pimlach]

3 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Only five points back.

Aaaaaaand just nine points out of first in the conference. They can cut that deficit with the Devs to seven tomorrow. And they will. NJ will be traveling day of game?

5 points to tie for 8th spot.  They need 6 to gain the 8th spot.  

But, its good to see you in a hopeful and positive mood on Thanksgiving.  

[PromoTheRobot]

15 hours ago, Taro T said:

Because as long as you have control of the puck, you are allowed to bring the puck into the zone behind you.  But all of your teammates must still wait for the puck to fully cross the blue line before they enter the zone.

The point of offside is to keep players from hanging at the net before the puck is in the zone.  Even a guy as big as Tage Thompson can't be hanging out at the net as the puck is coming into the zone when he has possession of the puck.

The NHL's version of the game is low scoring enough.  No reason to artificially lower scoring chances even more than they already are when the play doesn't give the attacking team an unfair advantage.  MHO.  YMMV.

I get that but it also creates a weird situation if a skater loses contact with the puck while dragging the lock behind them. Then it becomes a judgment call. Is the puck under control or not? 

[Believer]

2 hours ago, Pimlach said:

They are just not a hungry team.   

The owner, front office, and coaches aside, this is the most serious indictment of this team, imo.

Desire is all on the players.

It is unfathomable.

 

[PASabreFan]

5 minutes ago, Believer said:

The owner, front office, and coaches aside, this is the most serious indictment of this team, imo.

Desire is all on the players.

It is unfathomable.

 

IMHO it stems from not owning the drought. Seriously these guys, most of them anyway, withdrew the stick salute bc of booing. Kesselring misunderstands the booing as a normal hockey market. It's the drought, dummies.

[Wyldnwoody44]

Glad I missed it by the sounds of it 

[Archie Lee]

20 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

IMHO it stems from not owning the drought. Seriously these guys, most of them anyway, withdrew the stick salute bc of booing. Kesselring misunderstands the booing as a normal hockey market. It's the drought, dummies.

https://www.nhl.com/sabres/video/kevyn-adams-4-19-23-343685944

This is Adams's season ender in 2023. Start just before the 7 minute mark.  Adams makes clear that ending the drought, making the playoffs, success in the short-term, is at best a corporate stretch-target.  It was the beginning of the end for Adams. The future is on hold until there is a new GM.  

Edited 2 hours ago by Archie Lee

[Taro T]

31 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

I get that but it also creates a weird situation if a skater loses contact with the puck while dragging the lock behind them. Then it becomes a judgment call. Is the puck under control or not? 

Heck, icing is a judgement call.  They intentionally haven't gone to full no-touch icing which would remove that need for linesmen to exercise their judgement.

What you seem to be arguing is that a rare play that could lead to additional offense should not be allowed because a significantly rarer play might require a linesman, who presumably was hired for good judgement, good powers of observation, and an ability to get to where he needs to be when he needs to be there in one of the fastest sports known to man, to demonstrate that good judgement.  Is that your point?

A lot of items to dislike about the current rules of the game.  IMHO, this is not one of them.

[PerreaultForever]

8 hours ago, SabreFinn said:

During a year of Olympic hockey,  and both Thompson and Tuch being players that could earn a spot on team USA, I find it hard to believe that those situations should depend on anything but weak defensive awareness. But who knows.

I do wonder if both are trying to stay healthy to be available. 

7 hours ago, Believer said:

Bingo. Thompson rarely commands our team on the ice. Too self-absorbed. 

Zucker leads on the ice and pulls guys with him.

We need one of this type leader on each line. High energy. High compete. High skill. 

Players who can’t stand losing and aren’t afraid to say so and expect the same from their teammates.

Leaders don't always have to be "high skill" but otherwise I agree. 

[PerreaultForever]

4 hours ago, Broken Ankles said:

Watch the highlight again.  Tage had good positioning in front as there were two Penguins on the left of UPL down low.  There were also two Sabres much, much closer to Rust.  Benson dives and whiffs on the puck.  Byrum is next closest and offers a lame attempt at a shot block.  Offering us a glimpse of his poor defensive skills.  Tage was not great overall, but this goal was less on him than others.  

I won't disagree on Byram's lame effort but you have to consider Tage's reach and strength. He has the size and ability to go right to the guy and muscle him out or interfere with his stick. He's definitely in position, but he's passive, and that's the problem. It's not just him, it's Sabres in general. They are fast enough to get back in position or they are in position but they are passive or just try to use their sticks. Strong players just walk around or through them. In this case it was Tage. 

[PromoTheRobot]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

Heck, icing is a judgement call.  They intentionally haven't gone to full no-touch icing which would remove that need for linesmen to exercise their judgement.

What you seem to be arguing is that a rare play that could lead to additional offense should not be allowed because a significantly rarer play might require a linesman, who presumably was hired for good judgement, good powers of observation, and an ability to get to where he needs to be when he needs to be there in one of the fastest sports known to man, to demonstrate that good judgement.  Is that your point?

A lot of items to dislike about the current rules of the game.  IMHO, this is not one of them.

I don't know. Say you have a player skating backwards across the blue line with the puck. The player is in the zone but the puck is not. But before the puck crosses the player loses contact with the puck and the puck's momentum takes it over the blue line? Is that still onside? What if a goal was scored and a review was called for? Is it ruled a good goal? (We all know if the goal was scored on us, of course it would count.)

[clink]

13 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Could be coaching. Could be trying to play themselves off the team. Could be they just don't care (or care enough). Thompson's always had these lazy moments. he also has really good ones. The Detroit game was the best example of what he is capable of, but he's rarely shown the desire to be that all the time. 

imo you need to surround a guy like that with hard working vets. You can't expect a guy like that to be the leader of others, especially youngsters. 

Can I get an, "A men!!" 

The needs have been pretty easy to see for all, except for the ones who can actually do something about it 

 

[#freejame]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

I do wonder if both are trying to stay healthy to be available. 

Leaders don't always have to be "high skill" but otherwise I agree. 

This would be an interesting strategy for two bubble guys. 

[Taro T]

Just now, PromoTheRobot said:

I don't know. Say you have a player skating backwards across the blue line with the puck. The player is in the zone but the puck is not. But before the puck crosses the player loses contact with the puck and the puck's momentum takes it over the blue line? Is that still onside? What if a goal was scored and a review was called for? Is it ruled a good goal? (We all know if the goal was scored on us, of course it would count.)

Again, you are looking to take away a rarely seen play because of the POSSIBILITY of questions POTENTIALLY arising from a significantly even rarer play.  That doesn't make sense IMHO.  Clearly YMVs.

As to your 1st group of Qs.  No, the play is not onsides because the puck was NOT carried into the zone by a player in possession of it before at least 1 offensive player was inside the zone.  It's pretty clear / cut and dried.

And then to your 2nd group of Qs.  No, it is not ruled a good goal should the linesman have missed the offside and there is a challenge of the goal.

In order to get to the point of the Sabres (per your example) getting screwed by that goal being deemed to have been legit, you need the linesman to miss the offside and you need those reviewing the play to miss the offside as well.  Considering how rare that play is when it's cleanly played in a game, am ok with the risk that not only the puckcarrier will lose the puck before it fully crosses the blue line, the linesman is so mesmerized by the move that he doesn't realize the puckcarrier lost the puck, a goal is scored before the defending team has gotten the puck out of the zone or there was a stoppage in play, the coach and his team don't recognize that the puck was lost before it crossed into their zone OR they do recognize it but somehow none of the 4 officials nor anyone in TO reviewing the play manage to notice that it was offside.

That is a LOT of things to go wrong in the evaluation of a single very unique play, any single ONE of which going RIGHT will result in no goal being scored.  Am ok with those odds.  My 2 cents.

[Taro T]

One additional point, if the play was SO close to being legitimately onsides that ALL of that went wrong in the evaluation of it; then the offensive team did NOT gain the type of advantage from having had the puckcarrier over the line early that the offside rule was put in place to eliminate.  Again, personally am ok with carrying the puck into the zone after you have already entered the zone presuming the puck carrier is in control of the puck.