Comparing first 12 games of last season to this season.

[PromoTheRobot]

Record last season: 4-7-1, this season:  5-4-3

Goals scored: last 31, this: 37

Goals allowed: last: 36, this 38

Power play: last: 2-22, this: 8-40

Penalty kill: last: 75% this: 90.5%

Discuss.

[Mr Peabody]

Surprised we’ve allowed more goals as GT seems much improved.  Concerned that the PK % is not sustainable. PP improvement  is to be expected based on that abysmal prior year number.  
 

On ice plays seems much better even with all the injuries. Benson and Doan are early drivers for a culture change so hopefully we remain in the fight. 

[_Q_]

Team looks like it has more compete and more grit.

Would like to see what a healthy team looks like.

[inkman]

The team looks markedly better.  Ultimately, goaltending is going to make or break the season, as is the case with most NHL teams. 

[Pimlach]

I expected this years GA to be better than last year, even at this point in the season.  We won a few games because of goaltending.  

Anyone know GA(Expected) for the same time periods?  

[PromoTheRobot]

12 minutes ago, inkman said:

The team looks markedly better.  Ultimately, goaltending is going to make or break the season, as is the case with most NHL teams. 

Sv% 1st 12: last .883, this.903

Edited yesterday at 03:17 AM by PromoTheRobot

[Night Train]

Baby steps but slightly improved. Now finish off more close games. 

[PromoTheRobot]

22 minutes ago, Night Train said:

Baby steps but slightly improved. Now finish off more close games. 

What gave me the idea for this thread was the question how is goal scoring this year in light of losing JJ Peterka and no Josh Norris. From there I compared the other stats. The Goals Against numbers are odd being up slightly, but the biggest change is special teams. PP and PK are massively improved.

[PerreaultForever]

Some of the additions/changes have made a positive difference. So far there are still some of the previous players who haven't been dragged into the fight by the new guys but hopefully over time that will happen. 

Most people are talking about Doan for obvious reasons but biggest surprise to me is Timmons. I didn't think he was very good in Toronto and not much in Pittsburgh but he's been really solid and seems to fit their system perfectly. It's made a huge difference. 

[Sabres73]

In previous years a big issue was losing in regulation and not getting the loser point. This year the issue is not winning in OT and settling for the loser point. That alone is a pretty big improvement (putting aside the obvious need to get two points on a regular basis).

[Doohickie]

3 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

biggest surprise to me is Timmons. I didn't think he was very good in Toronto and not much in Pittsburgh but he's been really solid and seems to fit their system perfectly. It's made a huge difference. 

I don't think we've seen everything we will out of him yet.  So far I see him as glue to hold the unit together, and to clean up messes left by Power (and also to mentor Power).  I don't see him do much, but that also includes I don't see him making any defensive mistakes.  But Dunleavy keeps talking about how good his shot is.  I get the impression that while he learns Lindy's system and his teammates, he's not pushing the offense; he seems to be concentrating on D most of the time.  But I think as he settles in he'll try more shots on goal.

[Kristian]

On 11/3/2025 at 3:51 AM, PromoTheRobot said:

Record last season: 4-7-1, this season:  5-4-3

Goals scored: last 31, this: 37

Goals allowed: last: 36, this 38

Power play: last: 2-22, this: 8-40

Penalty kill: last: 75% this: 90.5%

Discuss.

Special teams win hockey games.

[PerreaultForever]

2 hours ago, Doohickie said:

I don't think we've seen everything we will out of him yet.  So far I see him as glue to hold the unit together, and to clean up messes left by Power (and also to mentor Power).  I don't see him do much, but that also includes I don't see him making any defensive mistakes.  But Dunleavy keeps talking about how good his shot is.  I get the impression that while he learns Lindy's system and his teammates, he's not pushing the offense; he seems to be concentrating on D most of the time.  But I think as he settles in he'll try more shots on goal.

I don't disagree but I'd get a little worried if he started trying to be an offensive D man. We have enough of those. Likely too many.  We just need stable reliable defenders to pair with the offensively gifted. I doubt Timmons is good enough to do both things well. 

[Demoted]

Best penalty kill in the league!

[JohnC]

11 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Some of the additions/changes have made a positive difference. So far there are still some of the previous players who haven't been dragged into the fight by the new guys but hopefully over time that will happen. 

Most people are talking about Doan for obvious reasons but biggest surprise to me is Timmons. I didn't think he was very good in Toronto and not much in Pittsburgh but he's been really solid and seems to fit their system perfectly. It's made a huge difference. 

Timmons is quietly good. You don’t notice him because there is little flair to his game. He’s fundamentally solid with little wasted motion. He’s the type of defenseman we were looking to acquire for years. 

[PromoTheRobot]

FYI the Sabres peaked last season on November 23rd with a record of 11-9-1 and 23 points, .575, good for third in the conference for a fleeting moment.

With a win tonight they can surpass that point % at .577.

Edited 8 hours ago by PromoTheRobot

[DarthEbriate]

21 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

FYI the Sabres peaked last season on November 23rd with a record of 11-9-1 and 23 points, .575, good for third in the conference for a fleeting moment.

With a win tonight they can surpass that point % at .577.

Third in the division. In the conference they would have been the 7th seed.

But there are differences from year-to-year in the parity.

Tonight, they could win and still be outside the playoffs depending on the outcomes of other games in the East.

[RochesterExpat]

On 11/2/2025 at 9:04 PM, Pimlach said:

Anyone know GA(Expected) for the same time periods?  

The below are the numbers that I see:

xGA 24-25 through first 12: 33.83
GSAx 24-25 through first 12: -6.17
xGA 25-26 through first 12: 39.8
GSAx 25-26 through first 12: +4.83

Also I see 40 goals against in the first 12 last season and 35 this season. Not sure why those numbers don't line up with above.


 

[Pimlach]

6 minutes ago, RochesterExpat said:

The below are the numbers that I see:

xGA 24-25 through first 12: 33.83
GSAx 24-25 through first 12: -6.17
xGA 25-26 through first 12: 39.8
GSAx 25-26 through first 12: +4.83

Also I see 40 goals against in the first 12 last season and 35 this season. Not sure why those numbers don't line up with above.


 

If i read this correctly the goalies are making more saves on "expected goals" this season.  was -6, is +5 (rounding) 

[Weave]

55 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

FYI the Sabres peaked last season on November 23rd with a record of 11-9-1 and 23 points, .575, good for third in the conference for a fleeting moment.

With a win tonight they can surpass that point % at .577.

So you are saying it’s all downhill after tonight’s game?

[RochesterExpat]

5 hours ago, Pimlach said:

If i read this correctly the goalies are making more saves on "expected goals" this season.  was -6, is +5 (rounding) 

The goaltending is better and the defense is worse. It's an 11 goal GSAx swing to the positive (better goaltending) and a 6 goal increase in xGA (worse defense). It's interesting to note that the number of shots blocked is up, but as are the total number of shots (382 this season vs 356 last season). The increase in total shot volume is ~7%, but the increase in xGA is ~18%, suggesting the increase is not proportional and consists of higher danger chances from last season.

But this doesn't match the eye test for me. I don't think the Sabres are a particularly good team--and the analytics largely back this--but I don't believe the defense is worse (the goaltending is absolutely better). So down the rabbit hole...

Across the full season last year compared to the full season this year, the xGA for Buffalo is higher this season--but this is also true for the league. So what about goals vs xGA for low danger shot attempts? Turns out, Buffalo is pretty good this season--way better than league average--at stopping low danger chances. However, they were actually not terrible last season either (better than average, but not as good as this season).

What about medium danger goals vs xGA? Well, turns out last season Buffalo was terrible. Absolutely terrible. This season? Well, basically the same.

And high danger goals vs xGA? Buffalo is doing well this season vs being near the bottom last season.

Last season, xGA per 60 make up was .93 low, 1.04 medium, 1.41 high. This season it's .89 low, 1.06 medium, and 1.59 high--again, suggesting the defense is worse and the goaltenders are simply stopping high danger chances.

Now, if we accept that Buffalo is facing (and stopping) more high danger chances, it again suggests defense declined YoY, so why does the defense at least appear to look better? I think it's because high danger attempts come in clusters courtesy of rebounds and scrambles. If the puck goes in the net on the first try, there's no subsequent "inflation" of the total xGA--and this also explains why there are more shots this season. The goalies are stopping the initial shot this season and that's the difference.

Side note, since the mention of the PK being much improved, the actual number of penalty minutes is roughly equal through the first 12 (100 this season vs 105 last season), so that's likely to be genuine improvement and not a statistical outlier caused by differences in sample size.

[RangerDave]

From the NY Times:

"16 teams in the race

That’s the number of clubs in the Eastern Conference either in a playoff spot or within one point of being in. Yes, that means every single team in the conference is in that situation. Yes, that is kind of ridiculous.

This is the first time every team in a conference has been this close to making the playoffs 200-plus games into a season since 1995, a lockout-shortened year that was almost over by that point."

So, are the Sabres better this year, or is every team mediocre this year?

[Pimlach]

13 minutes ago, RangerDave said:

From the NY Times:

"16 teams in the race

That’s the number of clubs in the Eastern Conference either in a playoff spot or within one point of being in. Yes, that means every single team in the conference is in that situation. Yes, that is kind of ridiculous.

This is the first time every team in a conference has been this close to making the playoffs 200-plus games into a season since 1995, a lockout-shortened year that was almost over by that point."

So, are the Sabres better this year, or is every team mediocre this year?

All this means it is early in the season and so far there is a lot of parity.

To soon to draw conclusions, just win games and avoid losing streaks.  

 

[Taro T]

37 minutes ago, RangerDave said:

From the NY Times:

"16 teams in the race

That’s the number of clubs in the Eastern Conference either in a playoff spot or within one point of being in. Yes, that means every single team in the conference is in that situation. Yes, that is kind of ridiculous.

This is the first time every team in a conference has been this close to making the playoffs 200-plus games into a season since 1995, a lockout-shortened year that was almost over by that point."

So, are the Sabres better this year, or is every team mediocre this year?

Yes, and yes.

[kas23]

While things sort of feel like last year, maybe the difference here is sustainability. You just knew the wheels could fall off at anytime last year. That said, we are entering November now and we all know what that means, so my final judgement will be at the half way mark.