Alex Tuch contract talks

[dudacek]

Tuch is re-signing unless Adams insults him or he has an absolutely crazy ask

That’s what usually happens when both sides want it to happen.

The rest is just negotiation.

[Carmel Corn]

3 hours ago, 7+6=13 said:

Tuch has been one of the best value players not on their ELC, we've had. I wonder if he's looking to make up for some of that, beyond his current value.

Agree….not to mention maybe keeping an eye on some other players negotiating new deals….like Kaprizov with the Wild.  Depending on where that lands, Alex and his agent could say that $10 million AAV is reasonable.

[bob_sauve28]

 

 

 

 

[dudacek]

Story also says both sides leaning toward long term, sense is that this gets done, but nothing is imminent.

It's basically about the rising cap and what's fair under the re-setting market.

[tom webster]

30 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Story also says both sides leaning toward long term, sense is that this gets done, but nothing is imminent.

It's basically about the rising cap and what's fair under the re-setting market.

People that I would trust with my life tell me this deal was done and than it wasn’t. My feeling, with no collaboration, is that NHLPA, is pushing these guys to reset the market. I think I posted earlier that there is talk of a $150M cap in the not too distant future and players don’t want to be making $9M when players start earning $20M.

[dudacek]

30 minutes ago, tom webster said:

People that I would trust with my life tell me this deal was done and than it wasn’t. My feeling, with no collaboration, is that NHLPA, is pushing these guys to reset the market. I think I posted earlier that there is talk of a $150M cap in the not too distant future and players don’t want to be making $9M when players start earning $20M.

Gonna be a run on contracts that blow peoples minds today and look like bargains in 2 or 3 years.

Might be in Tuch’s best interest to follow Byram’s lead and sign for a year or 2.

Still think Power’s contract has the potential to look like a major steal at the back end.

[dudacek]

Here’s the thing about the NHLPA resetting the market:

The players are getting 50% regardless, every extra dollar McDavid squeezes out of some team is just a dollar less for the Justin Danforth and Conor Timmins of the world.

No skin off Bettmans ass.

[jad1]

9 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Gonna be a run on contracts that blow peoples minds today and look like bargains in 2 or 3 years.

Might be in Tuch’s best interest to follow Byram’s lead and sign for a year or 2.

Still think Power’s contract has the potential to look like a major steal at the back end.

Dahlin's deal is going to look like a major steal in a couple of years.

Don't understand why the Sabres are balking at a double digit AAV for Tuch.  Just give him Dahlin's deal and be done with it.

[Taro T]

13 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Here’s the thing about the NHLPA resetting the market:

The players are getting 50% regardless, every extra dollar McDavid squeezes out of some team is just a dollar less for the Justin Danforth and Conor Timmins of the world.

No skin off Bettmans ass.

Have been saying this for YEARS.  And still to this day can't understand why the rank and file end up going along with leadership when they push hard for guys getting close to max deals and ALSO when the leadership fights so hard to keep guys that injure their brethren from getting punished.

The players get 1/2 of the pie, regardless how big or small the pie is (Covid disruptions to that not withstanding).  It is in their best interest to do everything possible to grow the pie and the best way to do that is to put a tremendously entertaining product on the ice.

And the players don't seem to understand that when they adjust actual salaries to meet the 50% of revenue total, that they do a straight %age boost across the board when revenues come in above projections (and, pulling Covid out of the picture, they almost always end up exceeding projections).  So, if HRR exceeds projections by 10%, then a $1MM player actually gets $1.1MM and a $10MM player gets $11MM.  The divide between the haves and have nots actually increases even more.

Granted, on those rare occassions projections don't get met, the bigger monied players take the bigger hit, but that is the exception, not the rule.

And, rather than wanting to come down on the guys that cross check others in the back eventually helping to contribe to back issues for players that are extremely talented (cough, cough, Dahlin); the leaders of the NHLPA are perfectly fine with that crud.  Well, when the skilled players are out of the game, its a LOT less enteraining.  Not saying they should go to a checking free game; but the PA needs to care about more than simply hits that might lead to concussions.

[mjd1001]

49 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Gonna be a run on contracts that blow peoples minds today and look like bargains in 2 or 3 years.

Might be in Tuch’s best interest to follow Byram’s lead and sign for a year or 2.

Still think Power’s contract has the potential to look like a major steal at the back end.

Tuch is in an interesting, and difficult spot.

Now is his time for a Long term deal. Lets say he signed a 2 year deal to see what happens after that.  Maybe he has 2 more good years, but the issue is his age. RIGHT NOW statistically he is at his peak.  Sure, things can be different but the 2nd year of that deal he will be starting his final year at age 31 and ending it at 32. It is likely his numbers will not be as good as they are now.

So, lot of assumptions here but lets assume his numbers at the end of that 2 year deal are a bit worse. Add to that the fact his next deal after that will START with him being 32 and ending the first year at 33 years of age, I'm not sure, even with an increasing cap, that a guy who is going to start his new 'long term' deal at that point in his age 32-33 age year, with possible declining numbers, going to age 38-39....is going to be in a better spot than just getting what he can get this year in a long term deal.

The Sabres, or any time, is likely to overpay a bit long term to get prime Tuch age 29-32 (that may not be prime Tuch, that might already be declining Tuch) rather than what they would be willing to pay when he is already sliding at age 32+.

[DarthEbriate]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Here’s the thing about the NHLPA resetting the market:

The players are getting 50% regardless, every extra dollar McDavid squeezes out of some team is just a dollar less for the Justin Danforth and Conor Timmins of the world.

No skin off Bettmans ass.

It doesn't squeeze the bottom roster guys if it's the same percentage of the cap that it is now (or was when the cap froze at about 82.5).

If Tuch's camp feels he's worth 1W money, say Mark Stone's 9.9% of cap. Why should he sign for $9M next year (on $113 cap that % would be $11.18M)? Or worse, why sign for 7 years if the cap is going to reaches 125 within just a couple more seasons?

Every player who is UFA next summer should be waiting until next summer.

San Jose has $70M in cap space next summer. They need to 2/3 of their roster -- but if you get McDavid and Tuch, and still have Celebrini and Smith on ELCs that could be bridged -- you can attract a bunch of established Cup-hunting vets like Edmonton did, and still fortify with a handful of standard $5M guys.

[dudacek]

23 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Tuch is in an interesting, and difficult spot.

Now is his time for a Long term deal. Lets say he signed a 2 year deal to see what happens after that.  Maybe he has 2 more good years, but the issue is his age. RIGHT NOW statistically he is at his peak.  Sure, things can be different but the 2nd year of that deal he will be starting his final year at age 31 and ending it at 32. It is likely his numbers will not be as good as they are now.

So, lot of assumptions here but lets assume his numbers at the end of that 2 year deal are a bit worse. Add to that the fact his next deal after that will START with him being 32 and ending the first year at 33 years of age, I'm not sure, even with an increasing cap, that a guy who is going to start his new 'long term' deal at that point in his age 32-33 age year, with possible declining numbers, going to age 38-39....is going to be in a better spot than just getting what he can get this year in a long term deal.

The Sabres, or any time, is likely to overpay a bit long term to get prime Tuch age 29-32 (that may not be prime Tuch, that might already be declining Tuch) rather than what they would be willing to pay when he is already sliding at age 32+.

Agreed. 

He's got to decide how badly he wants the security of term.

I bet the Sabres would give him $10M over 3 years in a heartbeat, but might balk at $10 over 8 years because of how that deal might bite them Jeff Skinner fashion if the cap stalls again.

But picking the wrong spot in between reduces his earning power on another contract significantly.