The offseason so far - Are the Sabres better?

[PromoTheRobot]

Let's break it into three sections...

Offense: Same or only slightly worse. The black box is what we get from Josh Norris. If he plays to his potential he fills the hole left by JJ. You hope that Tage and Tuch stay at last year's level. That Quinn, Benson and Kulich take steps. Addition of grit from Doan and Danforth can't hurt.

Defense: Good to very good. Kesselring and Timmins are upgrades. If Byram stays we could have a very deep defense. 

Goaltending: Same, but .... With improved defensive play, Goals allowed should improve. Get UPL to play a controlled game and stop trying too hard. Lyon should see more starts than Reimer.

Bottom line: can better defense earn you 5 more wins from last year? You are in the thick of the wild card race.

Edited 18 hours ago by PromoTheRobot

[JohnC]

4 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Let's break it into three sections...

Offense: Same or only slightly worse. The black box is what we get from Josh Norris. If he plays to his potential he fills the hole left by JJ. You hope that Tage and Tuch stay at last year's level. That Quinn, Benson and Kulich take steps. Addition of grit from Doan and Danforth can't hurt.

Defense: Good to very good. Kesselring and Timmins are upgrades. If Byram stays we could have a very deep defense. 

Goaltending: Same, but .... With improved defensive play, Goals allowed should improve. Get UPL to play a controlled game and stop trying too hard. Lyon should see more starts than Reimer.

Bottom line: can better defense earn you 5 more wins from last year? You are in the thick of the wild card race.

Make it 8 more wins to be in a genuine race. I’m not so concerned about scoring goals as I’m about the goaltending. 

[Taro T]

25 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Let's break it into three sections...

Offense: Same or only slightly worse. The black box is what we get from Josh Norris. If he plays to his potential he fills the hole left by JJ. You hope that Tage and Tuch stay at last year's level. That Quinn, Benson and Kulich take steps. Addition of grit from Doan and Danforth can't hurt.

Defense: Good to very good. Kesselring and Timmins are upgrades. If Byram stays we could have a very deep defense. 

Goaltending: Same, but .... With improved defensive play, Goals allowed should improve. Get UPL to play a controlled game and stop trying too hard. Lyon should see more starts than Reimer.

Bottom line: can better defense earn you 5 more wins from last year? You are in the thick of the wild card race.

On paper, the D IS better.  Had they replaced Wilford, would even expect it to be better, perhaps significantly.  But will only say it is better when it actually performs better.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I was thinking about the ins and outs since trading deadline.  I'm not evaluating specific transactions but where the new player fits into the lineup vs the former player (or soon to be former player)

1) Cozens for Norris - Out a middle six center for a top 6 center.  Cozens on a good team is probably a 3rd line center/wing while Norris, when healthy (a big if), is a 2 line center.  In the event Norris stays healthy, this would be an upgrade.  Of course, it's more likely to crash and burn when Norris gets hurt.

2) JJP for Doan - Out is a top line scoring winger in is a bottom six (likely 4th line) grinding winger.  This erases and then some any benefit from the possible addition of Norris

3) Joki for Kesselring -  This is replacing a of mediocre 2nd/3rd pairing D with a better defensive 2nd/3rd pairing.  

4) Clifton for Timmins - We swaped a physical but poor defensive 3rd pairing D, for a not nearly as physical, but better defensively, 3rd pair RHD

5) Reimer for Lyons - possible a small upgrade, but Reimer actually was our best goalie down the stretch last season.  

6. Malenstyn for Danforth - What? If Danforth wins a roster spot it will because he beat out Malenstyn for the job.  My guess is he'll be better than Malenstyn, but then again who wouldn't be?

Edited 11 hours ago by GASabresIUFAN

[HOUSE]

[pi2000]

They scored the 8th most goals in league and gave up the 4th most.

They traded away 27 goals in Peterka.   If you take away his goals, they finish in the bottom half of the league in goals for.

They're undoubtedly worse on paper.

I'm not buying the idea they got better defensively.   There's just nothing to support that claim... same goaltending, same coaches, same game plan.   

The team as a whole plays poor defense.   Dahlin and Power are not defensive stalwarts, the're offensive minded players who will continue to struggle defensively against tough matchups.

UPL is borderline NHL backup, Levi isn't good enough... Lyon?  lol

They needed to make a splash, trading some assets for a starting vet goalie and finding a vet partner for Power... and I'd argue Dahlin needs a steady defensively sound partner as well.  Samuelsson ain't it, he's regressed.

I like their draft, but that's not going to help this year.

Norris is a roulette wheel, if he plays 60 games I'll be tickled.

This feels to me like lowkey subtle tank for McKenna.   They have all the excuses built in... Norris injuries, UPL, still a young team, etc etc.

If they were serious about making a run at the playoffs they would've kept Peterka (he's an RFA, who cares if he "wants to be here"), fired some coaches, acquired a starter and a proven vet defenseman for Power.   

Improving the defense and maintaining the offensive production is what was needed, you don't need to sacrifice one for the other if done correctly.

Edited 10 hours ago by pi2000

[Turbo44]

40 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

They scored the 8th most goals in league and gave up the 4th most.

They traded away 27 goals in Peterka.   If you take away his goals, they finish in the bottom half of the league in goals for.

They're undoubtedly worse on paper.

I'm not buying the idea they got better defensively.   There's just nothing to support that claim... same goaltending, same coaches, same game plan.   

The team as a whole plays poor defense.   Dahlin and Power are not defensive stalwarts, the're offensive minded players who will continue to struggle defensively against tough matchups.

UPL is borderline NHL backup, Levi isn't good enough... Lyon?  lol

They needed to make a splash, trading some assets for a starting vet goalie and finding a vet partner for Power... and I'd argue Dahlin needs a steady defensively sound partner as well.  Samuelsson ain't it, he's regressed.

I like their draft, but that's not going to help this year.

Norris is a roulette wheel, if he plays 60 games I'll be tickled.

This feels to me like lowkey subtle tank for McKenna.   They have all the excuses built in... Norris injuries, UPL, still a young team, etc etc.

If they were serious about making a run at the playoffs they would've kept Peterka (he's an RFA, who cares if he "wants to be here"), fired some coaches, acquired a starter and a proven vet defenseman for Power.   

Improving the defense and maintaining the offensive production is what was needed, you don't need to sacrifice one for the other if done correctly.

Dahlin isn’t good playing defense? Interesting. And it’s not like the Sabres aren’t going play a player in JJ’s place. I’m not optimistic but I’m not irrationally negative either 

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, pi2000 said:

They scored the 8th most goals in league and gave up the 4th most.

They traded away 27 goals in Peterka.   If you take away his goals, they finish in the bottom half of the league in goals for.

But that's not how it works. And you're only looking at 1 side of the equation. If they took away 27g but also shipped out 30ga, they are up +3. I'm not saying they did that, just that finishing 16th in goals for versus 8th matters as much as finishing 4th in GA and moving to ??? 

Also they dumped Cozens 11g for Norris and Kulich picking up that ice time, I've stated repeatedly I don't believe we lost 27g although year to year goal totals vary so unclear where we come out, especially if Buffalo decides to play defense this year. 

Edited 9 hours ago by LGR4GM

[JoeSchmoe]

54 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

But that's not how it works. And you're only looking at 1 side of the equation. If they took away 27g but also shipped out 30ga, they are up +3. I'm not saying they did that, just that finishing 16th in goals for versus 8th matters as much as finishing 4th in GA and moving to ??? 

Also they dumped Cozens 11g for Norris and Kulich picking up that ice time, I've stated repeatedly I don't believe we lost 27g although year to year goal totals vary so unclear where we come out, especially if Buffalo decides to play defense this year. 

I worry Thompson might lose a few goals without a Peterka level player in the lineup. I also fear a regression from Zucker. Hopefully Quinn can be what we thought he was, and hopefully Norris, Kulich, and Benson all chip in. I've been burnt far too many times to get my hopes up on any of this though.

And we still need at least one of Levi, Lyon, or UPL to be a real NHL starting goalie. Unfortunately, I'm especially jaded this isn't going to happen. It'll be exciting however if it does.

[pi2000]

14 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

I worry Thompson might lose a few goals without a Peterka level player in the lineup. I also fear a regression from Zucker. Hopefully Quinn can be what we thought he was, and hopefully Norris, Kulich, and Benson all chip in. I've been burnt far too many times to get my hopes up on any of this though.

And we still need at least one of Levi, Lyon, or UPL to be a real NHL starting goalie. Unfortunately, I'm especially jaded this isn't going to happen. It'll be exciting however if it does.

Hope is not a strategy.

[pi2000]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

But that's not how it works. And you're only looking at 1 side of the equation. If they took away 27g but also shipped out 30ga, they are up +3. I'm not saying they did that, just that finishing 16th in goals for versus 8th matters as much as finishing 4th in GA and moving to ??? 

Also they dumped Cozens 11g for Norris and Kulich picking up that ice time, I've stated repeatedly I don't believe we lost 27g although year to year goal totals vary so unclear where we come out, especially if Buffalo decides to play defense this year. 

Peterka had a positive team relative plus minus last season.  

They didn't need to ship out Peterka to fix how they defend... it's not one or the other.

Capable front offices address their weaknesses without sacrificing their strengths.

[LGR4GM]

19 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

I worry Thompson might lose a few goals without a Peterka level player in the lineup. I also fear a regression from Zucker. Hopefully Quinn can be what we thought he was, and hopefully Norris, Kulich, and Benson all chip in. I've been burnt far too many times to get my hopes up on any of this though.

And we still need at least one of Levi, Lyon, or UPL to be a real NHL starting goalie. Unfortunately, I'm especially jaded this isn't going to happen. It'll be exciting however if it does.

I think our goal total will go down. Not specifically because of Peterka but in part. We're not better, just different. 

[Thorny]

2 hours ago, pi2000 said:

They scored the 8th most goals in league and gave up the 4th most.

They traded away 27 goals in Peterka.   If you take away his goals, they finish in the bottom half of the league in goals for.

They're undoubtedly worse on paper.

I'm not buying the idea they got better defensively.   There's just nothing to support that claim... same goaltending, same coaches, same game plan.   

The team as a whole plays poor defense.   Dahlin and Power are not defensive stalwarts, the're offensive minded players who will continue to struggle defensively against tough matchups.

UPL is borderline NHL backup, Levi isn't good enough... Lyon?  lol

They needed to make a splash, trading some assets for a starting vet goalie and finding a vet partner for Power... and I'd argue Dahlin needs a steady defensively sound partner as well.  Samuelsson ain't it, he's regressed.

I like their draft, but that's not going to help this year.

Norris is a roulette wheel, if he plays 60 games I'll be tickled.

This feels to me like lowkey subtle tank for McKenna.   They have all the excuses built in... Norris injuries, UPL, still a young team, etc etc.

If they were serious about making a run at the playoffs they would've kept Peterka (he's an RFA, who cares if he "wants to be here"), fired some coaches, acquired a starter and a proven vet defenseman for Power.   

Improving the defense and maintaining the offensive production is what was needed, you don't need to sacrifice one for the other if done correctly.

Well said 

[GoPuckYourself]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

But that's not how it works. And you're only looking at 1 side of the equation. If they took away 27g but also shipped out 30ga, they are up +3. I'm not saying they did that, just that finishing 16th in goals for versus 8th matters as much as finishing 4th in GA and moving to ??? 

Also they dumped Cozens 11g for Norris and Kulich picking up that ice time, I've stated repeatedly I don't believe we lost 27g although year to year goal totals vary so unclear where we come out, especially if Buffalo decides to play defense this year. 

Are you saying 30 GA are a direct correlation to JJ Peterka? If so I find that very hard to believe since that is what your defense is there for. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

On 7/11/2025 at 10:20 PM, dudacek said:

I ran a bit of inexact model that tries to project what kind of offence we could reasonably expect from the current lineup.

I took the three-year average of each player, added a % to the U25 kids who have yet to break the 250 game mark (Power, Byram, Kulich, Doan, Benson and Quinn) and subtracted a % for the vets who have passed their peak and the age 30 threshold (Danforth and Zucker). The percentage was based on this model.

https://medium.com/@mattdesfosses/the-hockey-aging-curve-b0f33b91d1e4

And I got something that looks like this:

• Thompson 44/37/81
• Tuch 33/39/72
• Dahlin 18/53/71
• Norris 34/28/62
• Quinn 19/29/48
• Zucker 21/24/45
• Power 7/36/43
• Byram 10/32/42
• Benson 15/26/41
• Doan 17/24/41 *(rookie, small sample size)
• Kulich 25/15/40 *(rookie, small sample size)
• McLeod 16/24/40
• Danforth 12/16/28
• Kesselring 6/22/28
• Greenway 10/14/24
• Krebs 8/15/23
• Timmins 4/18/22
• Samuelsson 4/12/16

Basically, the above is based on all 18 projected starters playing the full 82 games, which won't happen, and no one else playing at all, which also won't happen. The fill-ins almost certainly won't be scoring at the same rate as the starters so it trends to the optimistic.

To factor in injuries, I took 89% (the mean NHL games lost to injury is 11%) of the above total (303->270)) then added in the amount of goals scored by Sabres skaters not in the top 18 for games played last year (12).

And I ended with a grand total of 282 goals. The NHL median last year was 245.

Obviously this is math and what actually will happen is impossible to predict and we'll all apply our own biases (Quinn will get 30! Doan might not even make the team!)

But I think the logic is pretty sound in terms of giving us a ballpark figure of what this roster might be capable of and it's better than I would have expected given our moves.

EDIT: the single biggest question mark to me here is pretty obviously Norris and his availability, then the small sample sizes of Doan and Kulich.

 

 

 

I looked at the Sabres top 20 skaters averaged their number of games played over 3 years (where available) and goals/GP.  For players with less than three years, I used their last 2 seasons if full time (like Benson and Kesselring).  For the rookies, like Kulich and Doan, I took last season and just used their goals/GP * 75 games.  I also only used the last two seasons for Norris.

I arrived at only 254 goals.  

[thewookie1]

Losing Peterka hurts but I agree with @LGR4GM in this regard. The team is at best fractionally better with a trade of offensive pop for a bit more responsible play in theory. 
 

I understand being jaded, I understand not trusting anything they do but I can’t exactly dwell on that while also trying to enjoy and cheer for my favorite team. So I much rather approach this with a glass half full and possibly delude myself into believing they have a legit shot at the playoffs because anything else destroys the entire premise of being a fan. I’m high cynical in many aspects of my life while working with government/finance stuff so I can’t approach this with a similar mindset or I’ll go completely nuts.

[dudacek]

19 minutes ago, GoPuckYourself said:

Are you saying 30 GA are a direct correlation to JJ Peterka? If so I find that very hard to believe since that is what your defense is there for. 

Of course not, he’s actually saying the opposite.

He saying there’s no simple direct correlation between JJ’s goals and wins and losses.

There’s a butterfly effect with every move:

Maybe Tage slumps to 25 goals without JJ

Maybe Power explodes for 60 points with Kesselring 

Maybe Rosen takes JJ’s slot and scores 28 goals too, but with better defence

Maybe Benson and Kulich don’t score any more than this year, and with elevated minutes are even worse at defence than JJ was.

[GoPuckYourself]

6 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Of course not, he’s actually saying the opposite.

He saying there’s no simple direct correlation between JJ’s goals and wins and losses.

There’s a butterfly effect with every move:

Maybe Tage slumps to 25 goals without JJ

Maybe Power explodes for 60 points with Kesselring 

Maybe Rosen takes JJ’s slot and scores 28 goals too, but with better defence

Maybe Benson and Kulich don’t score any more than this year, and with elevated minutes are even worse at defence than JJ was.

That is a whole lot of what ifs there but I guess we'll just have to wait and see. I'm pretty sure I know the ending to this story as it's been replayed over a decade and a half now and like my good friend at Shawshank once said "Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane".

[dudacek]

24 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I looked at the Sabres top 20 skaters averaged their number of games played over 3 years (where available) and goals/GP.  For players with less than three years, I used their last 2 seasons if full time (like Benson and Kesselring).  For the rookies, like Kulich and Doan, I took last season and just used their goals/GP * 75 games.  I also only used the last two seasons for Norris.

I arrived at only 254 goals.  

So basically two shifts in the model:

• you used actual player games missed histories instead league averages.
• you didn’t adjust for typical growth/decline patterns.

And we still can expect an offence in the league’s top half without Greenway and Norris getting healthy. Interesting. Maybe there’s more there than it appears.

Edited 6 hours ago by dudacek