The offseason so far - Are the Sabres better?

[PromoTheRobot]

Let's break it into three sections...

Offense: Same or only slightly worse. The black box is what we get from Josh Norris. If he plays to his potential he fills the hole left by JJ. You hope that Tage and Tuch stay at last year's level. That Quinn, Benson and Kulich take steps. Addition of grit from Doan and Danforth can't hurt.

Defense: Good to very good. Kesselring and Timmins are upgrades. If Byram stays we could have a very deep defense. 

Goaltending: Same, but .... With improved defensive play, Goals allowed should improve. Get UPL to play a controlled game and stop trying too hard. Lyon should see more starts than Reimer.

Bottom line: can better defense earn you 5 more wins from last year? You are in the thick of the wild card race.

Edited 10 hours ago by PromoTheRobot

[JohnC]

4 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Let's break it into three sections...

Offense: Same or only slightly worse. The black box is what we get from Josh Norris. If he plays to his potential he fills the hole left by JJ. You hope that Tage and Tuch stay at last year's level. That Quinn, Benson and Kulich take steps. Addition of grit from Doan and Danforth can't hurt.

Defense: Good to very good. Kesselring and Timmins are upgrades. If Byram stays we could have a very deep defense. 

Goaltending: Same, but .... With improved defensive play, Goals allowed should improve. Get UPL to play a controlled game and stop trying too hard. Lyon should see more starts than Reimer.

Bottom line: can better defense earn you 5 more wins from last year? You are in the thick of the wild card race.

Make it 8 more wins to be in a genuine race. I’m not so concerned about scoring goals as I’m about the goaltending. 

[Taro T]

25 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Let's break it into three sections...

Offense: Same or only slightly worse. The black box is what we get from Josh Norris. If he plays to his potential he fills the hole left by JJ. You hope that Tage and Tuch stay at last year's level. That Quinn, Benson and Kulich take steps. Addition of grit from Doan and Danforth can't hurt.

Defense: Good to very good. Kesselring and Timmins are upgrades. If Byram stays we could have a very deep defense. 

Goaltending: Same, but .... With improved defensive play, Goals allowed should improve. Get UPL to play a controlled game and stop trying too hard. Lyon should see more starts than Reimer.

Bottom line: can better defense earn you 5 more wins from last year? You are in the thick of the wild card race.

On paper, the D IS better.  Had they replaced Wilford, would even expect it to be better, perhaps significantly.  But will only say it is better when it actually performs better.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I was thinking about the ins and outs since trading deadline.  I'm not evaluating specific transactions but where the new player fits into the lineup vs the former player (or soon to be former player)

1) Cozens for Norris - Out a middle six center for a top 6 center.  Cozens on a good team is probably a 3rd line center/wing while Norris, when healthy (a big if), is a 2 line center.  In the event Norris stays healthy, this would be an upgrade.  Of course, it's more likely to crash and burn when Norris gets hurt.

2) JJP for Doan - Out is a top line scoring winger in is a bottom six (likely 4th line) grinding winger.  This erases and then some any benefit from the possible addition of Norris

3) Joki for Kesselring -  This is replacing a of mediocre 2nd/3rd pairing D with a better defensive 2nd/3rd pairing.  

4) Clifton for Timmins - We swaped a physical but poor defensive 3rd pairing D, for a not nearly as physical, but better defensively, 3rd pair RHD

5) Reimer for Lyons - possible a small upgrade, but Reimer actually was our best goalie down the stretch last season.  

6. Malenstyn for Danforth - What? If Danforth wins a roster spot it will because he beat out Malenstyn for the job.  My guess is he'll be better than Malenstyn, but then again who wouldn't be?

Edited 4 hours ago by GASabresIUFAN

[HOUSE]

[pi2000]

They scored the 8th most goals in league and gave up the 4th most.

They traded away 27 goals in Peterka.   If you take away his goals, they finish in the bottom half of the league in goals for.

They're undoubtedly worse on paper.

I'm not buying the idea they got better defensively.   There's just nothing to support that claim... same goaltending, same coaches, same game plan.   

The team as a whole plays poor defense.   Dahlin and Power are not defensive stalwarts, the're offensive minded players who will continue to struggle defensively against tough matchups.

UPL is borderline NHL backup, Levi isn't good enough... Lyon?  lol

They needed to make a splash, trading some assets for a starting vet goalie and finding a vet partner for Power... and I'd argue Dahlin needs a steady defensively sound partner as well.  Samuelsson ain't it, he's regressed.

I like their draft, but that's not going to help this year.

Norris is a roulette wheel, if he plays 60 games I'll be tickled.

This feels to me like lowkey subtle tank for McKenna.   They have all the excuses built in... Norris injuries, UPL, still a young team, etc etc.

If they were serious about making a run at the playoffs they would've kept Peterka (he's an RFA, who cares if he "wants to be here"), fired some coaches, acquired a starter and a proven vet defenseman for Power.   

Improving the defense and maintaining the offensive production is what was needed, you don't need to sacrifice one for the other if done correctly.

Edited 2 hours ago by pi2000

[Turbo44]

40 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

They scored the 8th most goals in league and gave up the 4th most.

They traded away 27 goals in Peterka.   If you take away his goals, they finish in the bottom half of the league in goals for.

They're undoubtedly worse on paper.

I'm not buying the idea they got better defensively.   There's just nothing to support that claim... same goaltending, same coaches, same game plan.   

The team as a whole plays poor defense.   Dahlin and Power are not defensive stalwarts, the're offensive minded players who will continue to struggle defensively against tough matchups.

UPL is borderline NHL backup, Levi isn't good enough... Lyon?  lol

They needed to make a splash, trading some assets for a starting vet goalie and finding a vet partner for Power... and I'd argue Dahlin needs a steady defensively sound partner as well.  Samuelsson ain't it, he's regressed.

I like their draft, but that's not going to help this year.

Norris is a roulette wheel, if he plays 60 games I'll be tickled.

This feels to me like lowkey subtle tank for McKenna.   They have all the excuses built in... Norris injuries, UPL, still a young team, etc etc.

If they were serious about making a run at the playoffs they would've kept Peterka (he's an RFA, who cares if he "wants to be here"), fired some coaches, acquired a starter and a proven vet defenseman for Power.   

Improving the defense and maintaining the offensive production is what was needed, you don't need to sacrifice one for the other if done correctly.

Dahlin isn’t good playing defense? Interesting. And it’s not like the Sabres aren’t going play a player in JJ’s place. I’m not optimistic but I’m not irrationally negative either 

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, pi2000 said:

They scored the 8th most goals in league and gave up the 4th most.

They traded away 27 goals in Peterka.   If you take away his goals, they finish in the bottom half of the league in goals for.

But that's not how it works. And you're only looking at 1 side of the equation. If they took away 27g but also shipped out 30ga, they are up +3. I'm not saying they did that, just that finishing 16th in goals for versus 8th matters as much as finishing 4th in GA and moving to ??? 

Also they dumped Cozens 11g for Norris and Kulich picking up that ice time, I've stated repeatedly I don't believe we lost 27g although year to year goal totals vary so unclear where we come out, especially if Buffalo decides to play defense this year. 

Edited 1 hour ago by LGR4GM

[JoeSchmoe]

54 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

But that's not how it works. And you're only looking at 1 side of the equation. If they took away 27g but also shipped out 30ga, they are up +3. I'm not saying they did that, just that finishing 16th in goals for versus 8th matters as much as finishing 4th in GA and moving to ??? 

Also they dumped Cozens 11g for Norris and Kulich picking up that ice time, I've stated repeatedly I don't believe we lost 27g although year to year goal totals vary so unclear where we come out, especially if Buffalo decides to play defense this year. 

I worry Thompson might lose a few goals without a Peterka level player in the lineup. I also fear a regression from Zucker. Hopefully Quinn can be what we thought he was, and hopefully Norris, Kulich, and Benson all chip in. I've been burnt far too many times to get my hopes up on any of this though.

And we still need at least one of Levi, Lyon, or UPL to be a real NHL starting goalie. Unfortunately, I'm especially jaded this isn't going to happen. It'll be exciting however if it does.

[pi2000]

14 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

I worry Thompson might lose a few goals without a Peterka level player in the lineup. I also fear a regression from Zucker. Hopefully Quinn can be what we thought he was, and hopefully Norris, Kulich, and Benson all chip in. I've been burnt far too many times to get my hopes up on any of this though.

And we still need at least one of Levi, Lyon, or UPL to be a real NHL starting goalie. Unfortunately, I'm especially jaded this isn't going to happen. It'll be exciting however if it does.

Hope is not a strategy.

[pi2000]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

But that's not how it works. And you're only looking at 1 side of the equation. If they took away 27g but also shipped out 30ga, they are up +3. I'm not saying they did that, just that finishing 16th in goals for versus 8th matters as much as finishing 4th in GA and moving to ??? 

Also they dumped Cozens 11g for Norris and Kulich picking up that ice time, I've stated repeatedly I don't believe we lost 27g although year to year goal totals vary so unclear where we come out, especially if Buffalo decides to play defense this year. 

Peterka had a positive team relative plus minus last season.  

They didn't need to ship out Peterka to fix how they defend... it's not one or the other.

Capable front offices address their weaknesses without sacrificing their strengths.

[LGR4GM]

19 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

I worry Thompson might lose a few goals without a Peterka level player in the lineup. I also fear a regression from Zucker. Hopefully Quinn can be what we thought he was, and hopefully Norris, Kulich, and Benson all chip in. I've been burnt far too many times to get my hopes up on any of this though.

And we still need at least one of Levi, Lyon, or UPL to be a real NHL starting goalie. Unfortunately, I'm especially jaded this isn't going to happen. It'll be exciting however if it does.

I think our goal total will go down. Not specifically because of Peterka but in part. We're not better, just different. 

[Thorny]

2 hours ago, pi2000 said:

They scored the 8th most goals in league and gave up the 4th most.

They traded away 27 goals in Peterka.   If you take away his goals, they finish in the bottom half of the league in goals for.

They're undoubtedly worse on paper.

I'm not buying the idea they got better defensively.   There's just nothing to support that claim... same goaltending, same coaches, same game plan.   

The team as a whole plays poor defense.   Dahlin and Power are not defensive stalwarts, the're offensive minded players who will continue to struggle defensively against tough matchups.

UPL is borderline NHL backup, Levi isn't good enough... Lyon?  lol

They needed to make a splash, trading some assets for a starting vet goalie and finding a vet partner for Power... and I'd argue Dahlin needs a steady defensively sound partner as well.  Samuelsson ain't it, he's regressed.

I like their draft, but that's not going to help this year.

Norris is a roulette wheel, if he plays 60 games I'll be tickled.

This feels to me like lowkey subtle tank for McKenna.   They have all the excuses built in... Norris injuries, UPL, still a young team, etc etc.

If they were serious about making a run at the playoffs they would've kept Peterka (he's an RFA, who cares if he "wants to be here"), fired some coaches, acquired a starter and a proven vet defenseman for Power.   

Improving the defense and maintaining the offensive production is what was needed, you don't need to sacrifice one for the other if done correctly.

Well said 

[GoPuckYourself]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

But that's not how it works. And you're only looking at 1 side of the equation. If they took away 27g but also shipped out 30ga, they are up +3. I'm not saying they did that, just that finishing 16th in goals for versus 8th matters as much as finishing 4th in GA and moving to ??? 

Also they dumped Cozens 11g for Norris and Kulich picking up that ice time, I've stated repeatedly I don't believe we lost 27g although year to year goal totals vary so unclear where we come out, especially if Buffalo decides to play defense this year. 

Are you saying 30 GA are a direct correlation to JJ Peterka? If so I find that very hard to believe since that is what your defense is there for.