Evolving Hockey Sabres Contract Projections

[Brawndo]

[pi2000]

trade all of them 😂

[DarthEbriate]

11 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

trade all of them 😂

For futures!

Play the long game, Kevyn! You know your job is safe forever. Try to extend the drought to 30. 

[JohnC]

13 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

The Byram contract length makes me uncomfortable. Not saying that he doesn't deserve the contract but considering how much is already committed to Dahlin, Samuelsson and Power and the blueline, I don't see how the Sabres can commit to him for so long. I like Byram but if we can get a reasonable return in a trade, I would make it. If we could get a younger Zucker-like player for him, I would be more than satisfied.  

[LGR4GM]

You can keep Power or Byram, not both. I hope this helps nail that point home. 

[Mango]

21 minutes ago, JohnC said:

The Byram contract length makes me uncomfortable. Not saying that he doesn't deserve the contract but considering how much is already committed to Dahlin, Samuelsson and Power and the blueline, I don't see how the Sabres can commit to him for so long. I like Byram but if we can get a reasonable return in a trade, I would make it. If we could get a younger Zucker-like player for him, I would be more than satisfied.  

They 100% cannot and should not pay another hefty contract tona defenseman.

At bare minimum you have to rid yourself of the Samuelson contract before giving Bryam 8x8. But even then we'd still be the most expensive blue line in the league. A stat that continues to blow my mind. We are soooo bad in our own end.

[PerreaultForever]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

You can keep Power or Byram, not both. I hope this helps nail that point home. 

I have said this forever. One of them has to be traded. Byram should never have been traded for.

[thewookie1]

Peterka sure, im keeping Power so Byram can be dealt, Quinn is too high, McLeod make it 4x4.5 at max

[RangerDave]

4 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

For futures!

Play the long game, Kevyn! You know your job is safe forever. Try to extend the drought to 30. 

What is the over/under for team age average that KA needs to keep the team under in order to keep convincing Pegula that we "are on the right path, these guys just need to develop"?

[JohnC]

8 hours ago, Mango said:

They 100% cannot and should not pay another hefty contract tona defenseman.

At bare minimum you have to rid yourself of the Samuelson contract before giving Bryam 8x8. But even then we'd still be the most expensive blue line in the league. A stat that continues to blow my mind. We are soooo bad in our own end.

The Samuelson contract is difficult to get rid of. The inflated contract that we assumed is not the inflated contract that anyone else wants to take on. A bad contract can be not only a simple mistake but also a compounding mistake.

[DarthEbriate]

7 hours ago, RangerDave said:

What is the over/under for team age average that KA needs to keep the team under in order to keep convincing Pegula that we "are on the right path, these guys just need to develop"?

I think this season if he keeps it under 27 and next season under 28, he could continue to use that narrative.

For fans, that would be... unfortunate. For comparison, if Leftwinglock.com is correct at the moment, the teams under 27 are: Buffalo (1st, 25.6), SJ, PHI

And under 28: BOS, MTL, ANH, CBJ, CHI, UTA, OTT.

Of all these teams you have one semi-expected playoff team (Ottawa) and one surprise playoff team (MTL).

Once they're into the 28.0-29.9 range they're in with the league of "teams trying to win" -- 19 of 32 rosters are in that range, and only 3 teams are over 30.0 (MIN, EDM, and PIT).

2 hours ago, JohnC said:

The Samuelson contract is difficult to get rid of. The inflated contract that we assumed is not the inflated contract that anyone else wants to take on. A bad contract can be not only a simple mistake but also a compounding mistake.

The Samuelsson contract is easy to get rid of. Buy him out this summer and it is only a $714,286 cap hit each season (for 10 years). That's cheaper than Bryson.

Edited 9 hours ago by DarthEbriate

[JohnC]

5 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

 

The Samuelsson contract is easy to get rid of. Buy him out this summer and it is only a $714,286 cap hit each season (for 10 years). That's cheaper than Bryson.

I'm sure it is a minority view but I would rather keep Samuelsson and trade Byram. The hope with dealing Byram is that we can get a good player in return who has some grit to him. I thought that for the last dozen games or so Samuelsson game was solid. No doubt it was because he was paired with Dahlin. It didn't hurt Dahlin's game and it stabilized his play. 

Another factor, if Byram gets the contract he is likely to seek, it would be significantly more costly. As the link below indicates Samuelsson's contract runs to 29-30 at $4,285,714 per year. Bryram's expected market price would be more and longer. 

https://www.google.com/search?q=Buffalo+Sabres+Samuelsson's+contract&oq=Buffalo+Sabres+Samuelsson's+contract&aqs=chrome..69i57j69i64.16470j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

[DarthEbriate]

27 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I'm sure it is a minority view but I would rather keep Samuelsson and trade Byram. The hope with dealing Byram is that we can get a good player in return who has some grit to him. I thought that for the last dozen games or so Samuelsson game was solid. No doubt it was because he was paired with Dahlin. It didn't hurt Dahlin's game and it stabilized his play. 

Probably not a significant minority. Muel is oft-injured and doesn't defend his teammates despite the A, but at least he has a role on the team as a defensive defenseman and PK guy.

Byram, however, will never get the PP time with Dahlin/Power. Power can't even justify his own contract with points totals yet because he is only PP2. Byram can get you some value in a trade if you find a team that needs a PP guy and someone who can play top-4 minutes.

Side note and probably would need to be in a different thread: I'd check with Philly and Nashville to see if they're interested in some sort of package of Byram for their higher pick. That'd probably have to be Byram+9 for their 5/6+player with some salary that fills a Sabres roster need (defensive RHD). At least explore the possibility.

[dudacek]

So if I did the math right, signing these deals would allow the Sabres to run it back with a little under $1M left to sign a backup goalie.

Signing them all to the 1-year projections would add another $7Mish.

[Archie Lee]

The Sabres are not in an impossible situation with regards to the salary cap and their roster.  It is quite complex though.  Extending our RFAs in pretty-much any realistic combination of expert projections, takes them right up to, or over, the cap.  They are in a cap and roster situation that teams headed into year 5 of a rebuild, with no success to show for it, are not typically in. Typically, NHL teams in this sort of cap situation, have at least had some regular season successes. Also, serious NHL teams would typically entrust the management of this type of situation to a POHO and/or GM who has successfully navigated a franchise through such scenarios before. Adams has thus far not been able to build a playoff level roster, despite (I would argue) starting out with more assets than a GM would typically start a rebuild with. If Adams has not proven that he can build a winning team with all of the cap space and tradeable assets in the world to work with, then I don't know how he can possibly be expected to navigate the cap and contract complexities of the multiple moves needed this off-season to get the Sabres to the place where they have a playoff level roster.  Could it happen?  Sure.  But, there is just no reason for optimism. 

Edited 7 hours ago by Archie Lee

[GoPuckYourself]

Imagine being in cap hell with a bottom 9 worst roster, the same GM who signed off on those terrible contracts is now allowed to sign off more terrible deals to players. You can't even make this stuff up, this is beyond insanity at this point. 

Edited 7 hours ago by GoPuckYourself

[dudacek]

23 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

Probably not a significant minority. Muel is oft-injured and doesn't defend his teammates despite the A, but at least he has a role on the team as a defensive defenseman and PK guy.

Byram, however, will never get the PP time with Dahlin/Power. Power can't even justify his own contract with points totals yet because he is only PP2. Byram can get you some value in a trade if you find a team that needs a PP guy and someone who can play top-4 minutes.

Side note and probably would need to be in a different thread: I'd check with Philly and Nashville to see if they're interested in some sort of package of Byram for their higher pick. That'd probably have to be Byram+9 for their 5/6+player with some salary that fills a Sabres roster need (defensive RHD). At least explore the possibility.

Except Mule was worse defensively than Byram was.

This is not a defence of Byram, who the Sabres should not sign to the 8 by 8 deal in the OP.

It’s an attempt to point out how the concept of Samuelsson does not match the reality.

He was Dahlin’s worst partner and Power’s worst partner in xG%

Everybody uses Dahlin’s presence to hand wave Byram.

GF% Dahlin and Byram were 70%, Dahlin And Mule were 51.9%

[LGR4GM]

20 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Except Mule was worse defensively than Byram was.

This is not a defence of Byram, who the Sabres should not sign to the 8 by 8 deal in the OP.

It’s an attempt to point out how the concept of Samuelsson does not match the reality.

He was Dahlin’s worst partner and Power’s worst partner in xG%

Everybody uses Dahlin’s presence to hand wave Byram.

GF% Dahlin and Byram were 70%, Dahlin And Mule were 51.9%

Samuelsson isn't good and should be moved regardless of Byram or Power.

[bob_sauve28]

The cap is really going up a lot, that should help 

[DarthEbriate]

55 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Except Mule was worse defensively than Byram was.

This is not a defence of Byram, who the Sabres should not sign to the 8 by 8 deal in the OP.

It’s an attempt to point out how the concept of Samuelsson does not match the reality.

He was Dahlin’s worst partner and Power’s worst partner in xG%

Everybody uses Dahlin’s presence to hand wave Byram.

GF% Dahlin and Byram were 70%, Dahlin And Mule were 51.9%

35 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Samuelsson isn't good and should be moved regardless of Byram or Power.

Yes, the best move is to move them both and replace them with suitable partners for Dahlin and Power. And neither can be a potential break-the-bank expectant PP1 guy in Byram because it saps the cash for other areas of need. If Power-Byram was a great pairing that excelled in their own zone as well, then sure, pay him all you need and go with a big three.

Out of curiosity, what's the GF% of Power-Dahlin?

[dudacek]

51 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

.

Out of curiosity, what's the GF% of Power-Dahlin?

Gross: 38.5%, but their xG% was 69.3% in 133 minutes

Samuelsson and Power was 51.9 real, 40.2 xGz% in 317 minutes.

[Carmel Corn]

3 hours ago, bob_sauve28 said:

The cap is really going up a lot, that should help 

Not the INTERNAL one though.....

[Mango]

2 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

Yes, the best move is to move them both and replace them with suitable partners for Dahlin and Power. And neither can be a potential break-the-bank expectant PP1 guy in Byram because it saps the cash for other areas of need. If Power-Byram was a great pairing that excelled in their own zone as well, then sure, pay him all you need and go with a big three.

Out of curiosity, what's the GF% of Power-Dahlin?

I think the short story long of the entire blue line is that you only get 2 $8M+ defensemen. I can be convinced on either Power or Byram in that role. Then we need waaaay more defensive production out of a $5M player that we are getting out of Mule.

It's so body quoted me earlier, and they're right. The blue line in particular is hurting this team do to compounding cap/production issues.

 

[Jorcus]

4 hours ago, JohnC said:

I'm sure it is a minority view but I would rather keep Samuelsson and trade Byram. The hope with dealing Byram is that we can get a good player in return who has some grit to him. I thought that for the last dozen games or so Samuelsson game was solid. No doubt it was because he was paired with Dahlin. It didn't hurt Dahlin's game and it stabilized his play. 

Another factor, if Byram gets the contract he is likely to seek, it would be significantly more costly. As the link below indicates Samuelsson's contract runs to 29-30 at $4,285,714 per year. Bryram's expected market price would be more and longer. 

https://www.google.com/search?q=Buffalo+Sabres+Samuelsson's+contract&oq=Buffalo+Sabres+Samuelsson's+contract&aqs=chrome..69i57j69i64.16470j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

 

 I don't know if I would rather keep Samuelsson but but an argument for him is that he has only played 212 NHL games and should be coming into the best part of his development curve. The injuries have set him back and his start to this year was truly awful. He seemed to improve in fits and starts as the season went on. We were thinking he was guy to be supporting Power when in fact he has played less NHL games than Power. Not a good formula there. There is a decent chance that Sammy rounds into a much better player. I think he was one of the guys they were sending a message to about reporting to camp in shape. Playing his off wing did not help things. He would not be the first large defense man to overcome early injury trouble if it happens. Then again he may just be what he is now.

Both Byram 246 NHL games and Power 242 NHL games are right in the sweet spot of the development curve. You have to be a bit careful about letting guys go at this juncture but reality probably dictates one of them is going if not two. Another thing to think about, did any one in this group ever write we need to find a right handed D man to play with Byram?   

[Thorny]

4 hours ago, Archie Lee said:

The Sabres are not in an impossible situation with regards to the salary cap and their roster.  It is quite complex though.  Extending our RFAs in pretty-much any realistic combination of expert projections, takes them right up to, or over, the cap.  They are in a cap and roster situation that teams headed into year 5 of a rebuild, with no success to show for it, are not typically in. Typically, NHL teams in this sort of cap situation, have at least had some regular season successes. Also, serious NHL teams would typically entrust the management of this type of situation to a POHO and/or GM who has successfully navigated a franchise through such scenarios before. Adams has thus far not been able to build a playoff level roster, despite (I would argue) starting out with more assets than a GM would typically start a rebuild with. If Adams has not proven that he can build a winning team with all of the cap space and tradeable assets in the world to work with, then I don't know how he can possibly be expected to navigate the cap and contract complexities of the multiple moves needed this off-season to get the Sabres to the place where they have a playoff level roster.  Could it happen?  Sure.  But, there is just no reason for optimism. 

We were always supposed to be winning when Tuch was on a bargain deal, we had ELCs, etc. the long form rebuild plan they sold was exactly what we said it was: economic job security