Players that should NOT be on this team next year

[SabreFinn]

10 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Dahlin looks to be up on goals since last year but way down on assists.  A simple reason he is down on assists? The guys in front of him (that he plays with most often) just aren't shooting as well. Tuch's Shooting percentage is down from over 16% to about 11%.  Thompson from about 16% to only near 11% this year. Skinner down from 14.5% last year to about 12% this year.  Cozens nearly cut in half from over 14% last year to about 8% this year.

The thing is, those guys are getting about the same number of shots per game as last year, and a month or so ago the advanced fancy stats showed that at least with Cozens and Thompson, they were getting shots from the high danger areas (quality chance) about the same as last year.  Meaning, Dahlin is getting the pucks up the ice and on to those guys sticks, they just aren't putting them in the net and he is getting less assists because of it. (which also impacts his plus-minus in a negative way).

And as for those 'league leaders' and 'Norris candidates' ahead of Dahlin....Quinn Hughes in Vancouver. Makar. Josi. Hedman.  What do they have that Dahlin doesn't have?  Not any (or many) more goals, but they do have forward on their team that put the puck in the net a lot better than the Sabres forwards, giving them a lot more assists than Dahlin gets.  Vancouvers top 4 goal scorers up front average almost 20% shooting percentage between them.  Colorado's top 3 guys are at 13.1, 15.8, and 17.7. Tampa's top 4 guys have almost 140 goals between them and are average about 20% shooting.  

Buffalo? Every single player on the team with at least 10 goals is shooting under 13%.

And when you break down the Sabres shooting..."high danger" chances (directly in front of the net), the league besides the Sabres shoots about 20%. The Sabres...14.1%.  Colorado?  20.5%  Vancouver?  23.4%.

So, Dahlin not being near the top of the league in points and assists (along with goals) might just be more of a function of the players he plays with being SO MUCH worse than the rest of the league at putting the puck into the net, even from prime scoring areas.  

As you said, leading the league in ice time, improving corsi, improving hits, improving blocked shots....if he had the assists that would go with better play up front, he just might be in the Norris converstation this year (and when looking at those numbers, if the Sabres were even AVERAGE at how much they produce from the high danger areas, they would probably be in the playoffs right now.

I have never looked at shotpercentage, so this was a good post from a view I do not look at stats.  Can you tell more about the league average percentage? The shot percentage that Col and Van has seems very high to me. And the Sabres low.

[GoPuckYourself]

LW Zemgus Girgensons- He tries but I think we need an upgrade here, I'm just not seeing anything worth keeping but both Adams and Granato rave about him.

 C Tyson Jost- He wouldn't be on most teams rosters and shouldn't be on ours.

 C Peyton Krebs- See above, he has average skill, average grit, average skater, we need better than average.

LW Victor Olofsson- I don't despise him like alot do on here, he's a secondary goal scorer on a playoff team but when the goal scoring isnt there he doesnt offer much.

 D Jacob Bryson- Too small, he was much better than last season at just about everything but not good enough to be on this roster.

 D Henri Jokiharju- I know some on here praise how he's played this year but I see a very average player who on a playoff team would have a hard time making it or a bottom pairing but in no way would be a top 4 Dman.

 G Eric Comrie- He's an AHL level goalie and should not be on an NHL roster.

[Thorny]

Judging from this Granato quote they have already decided Levi is good to go next season after not being so, this 

Cross our fingers second time’s the charm! 

[Weave]

24 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Judging from this Granato quote they have already decided Levi is good to go next season after not being so, this 

Cross our fingers second time’s the charm! 

Frustratingly high risk for a fanbase that has sat on the sidlines in April-May for 13 seasons.

Regarding the goalie situation AND the implied coaching situation.

[thewookie1]

31 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Judging from this Granato quote they have already decided Levi is good to go next season after not being so, this 

Cross our fingers second time’s the charm! 

Well, that's annoying to say the least. I'm starting to wonder if a middle aged goalie hurt him at some point because he outright refuses to sign an experienced backup.

That and if they keep Granato they have better have given him a completely new coaching staff; aside the goalie coach and perhaps the guys who watch for offside challenges I want not one guy back.

[Jorcus]

On 4/1/2024 at 6:15 PM, mjd1001 said:

Dahlin looks to be up on goals since last year but way down on assists.  A simple reason he is down on assists? The guys in front of him (that he plays with most often) just aren't shooting as well. Tuch's Shooting percentage is down from over 16% to about 11%.  Thompson from about 16% to only near 11% this year. Skinner down from 14.5% last year to about 12% this year.  Cozens nearly cut in half from over 14% last year to about 8% this year.

The thing is, those guys are getting about the same number of shots per game as last year, and a month or so ago the advanced fancy stats showed that at least with Cozens and Thompson, they were getting shots from the high danger areas (quality chance) about the same as last year.  Meaning, Dahlin is getting the pucks up the ice and on to those guys sticks, they just aren't putting them in the net and he is getting less assists because of it. (which also impacts his plus-minus in a negative way).

And as for those 'league leaders' and 'Norris candidates' ahead of Dahlin....Quinn Hughes in Vancouver. Makar. Josi. Hedman.  What do they have that Dahlin doesn't have?  Not any (or many) more goals, but they do have forward on their team that put the puck in the net a lot better than the Sabres forwards, giving them a lot more assists than Dahlin gets.  Vancouvers top 4 goal scorers up front average almost 20% shooting percentage between them.  Colorado's top 3 guys are at 13.1, 15.8, and 17.7. Tampa's top 4 guys have almost 140 goals between them and are average about 20% shooting.  

Buffalo? Every single player on the team with at least 10 goals is shooting under 13%.

And when you break down the Sabres shooting..."high danger" chances (directly in front of the net), the league besides the Sabres shoots about 20%. The Sabres...14.1%.  Colorado?  20.5%  Vancouver?  23.4%.

So, Dahlin not being near the top of the league in points and assists (along with goals) might just be more of a function of the players he plays with being SO MUCH worse than the rest of the league at putting the puck into the net, even from prime scoring areas.  

As you said, leading the league in ice time, improving corsi, improving hits, improving blocked shots....if he had the assists that would go with better play up front, he just might be in the Norris converstation this year (and when looking at those numbers, if the Sabres were even AVERAGE at how much they produce from the high danger areas, they would probably be in the playoffs right now.

A couple of other things to think about. Dahlin has 12 less assists on the power play. Not saying all the power play woes are all on him but he is the main QB. He is also shooting on goal a lot more up 59 right now. Maybe the pass is not to be had but Sabres are not the best at jumping on rebounds which is how he would get the helpers off a shot. There are things that Dahlin has to clean up in his game to put him over the top as the best D man in the league.

[dudacek]

18 hours ago, Thorny said:

Judging from this Granato quote they have already decided Levi is good to go next season after not being so, this 

Cross our fingers second time’s the charm! 

 

18 hours ago, Weave said:

Frustratingly high risk for a fanbase that has sat on the sidlines in April-May for 13 seasons.

Regarding the goalie situation AND the implied coaching situation.

There needs to be some acknowledgement that the context to this debate has shifted since last summer.

 

I loosely defined "backup" as goalies who have played 15-35 games this year

• Devon Levi ranks 18th in SV%, and 20th in GAA

I defined "starter" as goalies who have played more than 35 games.

• UPL ranks 12th and 8th

Overall, Luukkonen is 21st and 13th and Levi 47th and 49th out of 68 goalies.

 

Of course the question remains 'Yeah, but they're so young. Where's the track record?"

One response might be "Tell me who has a dependable track record?

Merzlikins, Korpisalo, Raanta, Vanecek, Husso, Allen, Gibson, Kahkonen, Vejmalka, Kuemper, Forsberg, Blackwood, Gustafsson, Mrazek, Jarry, Lankinen, Grubauer, Samsonov, Fleury...did any of these guys significantly outplay Levi this year?

Or this:

• .899 3.10
• .900 2.86

One is Devon Levi, the other Andrei Vasilevskiy

 

Ideally, I want a proven NHL backup who Levi will clearly have to beat out to be in the NHL.

How much would we have to give up to acquire a goalie we "know" is going to be better than Levi?

How much are we willing to spend on a "just in case"?

How many proven NHL backups will be interested in coming here knowing what the Sabres feel about Levi?

[Weave]

58 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 

There needs to be some acknowledgement that the context to this debate has shifted since last summer.

 

I loosely defined "backup" as goalies who have played 15-35 games this year

• Devon Levi ranks 18th in SV%, and 20th in GAA

I defined "starter" as goalies who have played more than 35 games.

• UPL ranks 12th and 8th

Overall, Luukkonen is 21st and 13th and Levi 47th and 49th out of 68 goalies.

 

Of course the question remains 'Yeah, but they're so young. Where's the track record?"

One response might be "Tell me who has a dependable track record?

Merzlikins, Korpisalo, Raanta, Vanecek, Husso, Allen, Gibson, Kahkonen, Vejmalka, Kuemper, Forsberg, Blackwood, Gustafsson, Mrazek, Jarry, Lankinen, Grubauer, Samsonov, Fleury...did any of these guys significantly outplay Levi this year?

Or this:

• .899 3.10
• .900 2.86

One is Devon Levi, the other Andrei Vasilevskiy

 

Ideally, I want a proven NHL backup who Levi will clearly have to beat out to be in the NHL.

How much would we have to give up to acquire a goalie we "know" is going to be better than Levi?

How much are we willing to spend on a "just in case"?

How many proven NHL backups will be interested in coming here knowing what the Sabres feel about Levi?

It’s a problem of Buffalo’s creation. I think getting goalie depth right is a basic GM responsibility.  He’s on his third swing at it now.  VSTOL performance is required now.  The long runway is long gone.

[LTS]

20 hours ago, Weave said:

Frustratingly high risk for a fanbase that has sat on the sidlines in April-May for 13 seasons.

Regarding the goalie situation AND the implied coaching situation.

Yeah.. but my plan is to be at my job next year too, until someone decides that I won't be. 

In regards to hockey I just think that "Today" this is the plan.  "Tomorrow" anything could be the plan.  Even if they weren't going to go forward with UPL and Levi there's no way they are going to say it publicly.

 

[dudacek]

21 minutes ago, Weave said:

It’s a problem of Buffalo’s creation. I think getting goalie depth right is a basic GM responsibility.  He’s on his third swing at it now.  VSTOL performance is required now.  The long runway is long gone.

Why should it be considered a problem?

[DarthEbriate]

We're seeing the GM ShEEEvyn run-it-back youth train lineup the remainder of the season. If the FO loves Zemgus, then he's back, and it looks like this:

Peterka - Thompson - Tuch
Benson - Cozens - Quinn
Skinner - UFA 3C (Savoie) - Greenway
Girgensons - Krebs - UFA 4W (Kulich)
(Rousek)

Power - Dahlin
Byram - Jokiharju
Samuelsson - Clifton
(Johnson)

Luukkonen
Levi

[Weave]

44 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Why should it be considered a problem?

This part wasnt tactically played well.

“How many proven NHL backups will be interested in coming here knowing what the Sabres feel about Levi?”

We had an unproven guy that was publicly given the keys to the team, and one of the challenges became, noone will sign on with him here.

The GM flat out played the goalie situation poorly.

[Doohickie]

On 4/2/2024 at 9:06 AM, GoPuckYourself said:

D Jacob Bryson- Too small, he was much better than last season at just about everything but not good enough to be on this roster.

 D Henri Jokiharju- I know some on here praise how he's played this year but I see a very average player who on a playoff team would have a hard time making it or a bottom pairing but in no way would be a top 4 Dman.

I don't see them moving both of these guys, nor do I think they should. 

Based on career trajectories I think they would move Joki who's an established roster player. 

Bryson, on the other hand, has become a depth defenseman you're not afraid to put out there.  I'd try to keep him as a 7/8 D and he'd probably be okay with that.  I don't think you want to count on callups of prospects in Rochester to be your defensive depth; you want a mature player.  Bryson is the second oldest Dman on the team and seems to have come of age this season.

[LGR4GM]

On 4/2/2024 at 10:06 AM, GoPuckYourself said:

LW Zemgus Girgensons- He tries but I think we need an upgrade here, I'm just not seeing anything worth keeping but both Adams and Granato rave about him.

 C Tyson Jost- He wouldn't be on most teams rosters and shouldn't be on ours.

 C Peyton Krebs- See above, he has average skill, average grit, average skater, we need better than average.

LW Victor Olofsson- I don't despise him like alot do on here, he's a secondary goal scorer on a playoff team but when the goal scoring isnt there he doesnt offer much.

 D Jacob Bryson- Too small, he was much better than last season at just about everything but not good enough to be on this roster.

 D Henri Jokiharju- I know some on here praise how he's played this year but I see a very average player who on a playoff team would have a hard time making it or a bottom pairing but in no way would be a top 4 Dman.

 G Eric Comrie- He's an AHL level goalie and should not be on an NHL roster.

LW Zemgus Girgensons- UFA but Terry loves him

 C Tyson Jost- UFA

 C Peyton Krebs- I would start thinking about trading Krebs

LW Victor Olofsson- UFA

 D Jacob Bryson- 7th defender but I would look for an upgrade 

 D Henri Jokiharju- unless they make him the 5/6 defender they need to look to move on

 G Eric Comrie- UFA

[Doohickie]

21 hours ago, Thorny said:

Judging from this Granato quote they have already decided Levi is good to go next season after not being so, this 

Cross our fingers second time’s the charm! 

"Donny said 'The plan next year is...' So this means ...This means Donny is 100% back next year? Clearly him and GMKA have talked about this?"

All it implies about Donny's return is that he hasn't been notified of his dismissal yet.

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, Doohickie said:

"Donny said 'The plan next year is...' So this means ...This means Donny is 100% back next year? Clearly him and GMKA have talked about this?"

All it implies about Donny's return is that he hasn't been notified of his dismissal yet.

Donny is 100% coming back. All signs from the organization have pointed to that. Question is will all the assistants come back. 

[dudacek]

4 minutes ago, Weave said:

This part wasnt tactically played well.

“How many proven NHL backups will be interested in coming here knowing what the Sabres feel about Levi?”

We had an unproven guy that was publicly given the keys to the team, and one of the challenges became, noone will sign on with him here.

The GM flat out played the goalie situation poorly.

Maybe, but the conversation I’m trying to have is about this summer, not last summer.

Is starting the season with Luukkonen (by this season’s numbers a good starter) and Levi (by this season’s numbers an average backup) a problem in need of an active solution?

[Doohickie]

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Donny is 100% coming back. All signs from the organization have pointed to that. Question is will all the assistants come back. 

I'm not arguing that.  I'm just saying that the fact that Kevyn and Donny are talking about next year does not imply that Kevyn won't fire Donny.  Donny is still part of Kevyn's senior staff; why wouldn't he consult with him on future planning?

My point is that while yes, Donny in all likelihood is back next year, this quote is not an indicator of that.  It's an indicator of normal GM-HC interaction.

[dudacek]

53 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

We're seeing the GM ShEEEvyn run-it-back youth train lineup the remainder of the season. If the FO loves Zemgus, then he's back, and it looks like this:

Peterka - Thompson - Tuch
Benson - Cozens - Quinn
Skinner - UFA 3C (Savoie) - Greenway
Girgensons - Krebs - UFA 4W (Kulich)
(Rousek)

Power - Dahlin
Byram - Jokiharju
Samuelsson - Clifton
(Johnson)

Luukkonen
Levi

I was thinking this while watching last night and running the tape back to Adams trade deadline presser.

Plug Greenway into Rousek’s slot with Krebs and Skinner, add 3 fast, tenacious forecheckers, one of which is a defensively strong 3/4C and we’re looking at next year’s roster.

Its going to make the place really hard to read this summer but it’s going to happen.

Come November, most of Sabrespace will either be eating crow, or praying it’s not too late for our new coach to get us back in the race.

Edited April 3 by dudacek

[Doohickie]

17 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Is starting the season with Luukkonen (by this season’s numbers a good starter) and Levi (by this season’s numbers an average backup) a problem in need of an active solution?

Possibly not.  I know everyone wants a guaranteed solution, but there are no guarantees.  If Luuk is a good starter this year and will be no worse next year, and Levi a below-average backup this year but is likely to improve year-over-year, the Sabres could be in a pretty good spot; possibly an Ullmark/Swayman type combination that by mid-next season will just be hitting their stride as a duo.

On the other hand, what depth is there?  They Sabres used 3 goalies this year, a fairly normal occurrence.  Who's out No. 3 if someone gets dinged up?  Last season the Sabres used 4 goalies; the prior two seasons they used 6!

If no major injuries occur and Levi is even a little better, the Sabres are okay.  But if Levi doesn't improve, or UPL or Levi regresses, or one suffers a longish-term injury, the Sabres need depth.

They're finally getting to the point of acceptable depth on D and the forwards have at least a couple lines of top talent and forwards in the pipeline.  Both those situations support making the playoffs next year.  But goalie depth doesn't look good without bringing in a vet for depth, the way I see it.

Edited April 3 by Doohickie

[Thorny]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

 

There needs to be some acknowledgement that the context to this debate has shifted since last summer.

 

I loosely defined "backup" as goalies who have played 15-35 games this year

• Devon Levi ranks 18th in SV%, and 20th in GAA

I defined "starter" as goalies who have played more than 35 games.

• UPL ranks 12th and 8th

Overall, Luukkonen is 21st and 13th and Levi 47th and 49th out of 68 goalies.

 

Of course the question remains 'Yeah, but they're so young. Where's the track record?"

One response might be "Tell me who has a dependable track record?

Merzlikins, Korpisalo, Raanta, Vanecek, Husso, Allen, Gibson, Kahkonen, Vejmalka, Kuemper, Forsberg, Blackwood, Gustafsson, Mrazek, Jarry, Lankinen, Grubauer, Samsonov, Fleury...did any of these guys significantly outplay Levi this year?

Or this:

• .899 3.10
• .900 2.86

One is Devon Levi, the other Andrei Vasilevskiy

 

Ideally, I want a proven NHL backup who Levi will clearly have to beat out to be in the NHL.

How much would we have to give up to acquire a goalie we "know" is going to be better than Levi?

How much are we willing to spend on a "just in case"?

How many proven NHL backups will be interested in coming here knowing what the Sabres feel about Levi?

I’d be willing to spend quite a bit. Because,

A) we have it

B) we absolutely have to be right, here

Have you heard the phrase “no stone unturned”? That’s my philosophy in terms of approaching talent upgrades and failsafes for augmenting a playoff team next season 

ymmv

1 hour ago, Weave said:

It’s a problem of Buffalo’s creation. I think getting goalie depth right is a basic GM responsibility.  He’s on his third swing at it now.  VSTOL performance is required now.  The long runway is long gone.

This. I’m sort of done with, “well, there’s a reasonable argument this could work.” 

They need to put things into a position where we are saying “it’s not reasonable to think it won’t”

- - -

do we want to have true expectations, or not? 

People were saying this offseason, “don’t run and hide from having expectations this year. It’s time. Anything short of playoffs is a disappointment.” If we fall short of that, how could playoffs NEXT year be anything short of a mandated, “do what’s necessary to get it done”?

No stone unturned. Next season is the priority, not the nameless future and not the “process”

Edited April 3 by Thorny

[mjd1001]

On 4/2/2024 at 4:47 AM, SabreFinn said:

I have never looked at shotpercentage, so this was a good post from a view I do not look at stats.  Can you tell more about the league average percentage? The shot percentage that Col and Van has seems very high to me. And the Sabres low.

High danger chances...basically right in front of the net.  Half way or less from the circles to the goalposts, and between the dots.

As of right now, leauge average for shots from there is 593 shots, the Sabres are at 545 shots. So yes, when people say its coaching because they are getting less chances from there, they are near the bottom, but not far away at all from league average.

Last year they had 18 less shots than 'league average' from the high danger zone. This year they have 48 less.  It would be reasonable to say the increased number of games missed by your top offensive players (Tuch, Skinner, Quinn, Thompson) and the level of their replacements along account for the change in those numbers.

Their offensize zone time compared to defensive zone time is almost identical this year compared to last year. 

HOWEVER, the players part, converting those chances...the league average shooting percentage is 19.7% from the 'high danger' area. The Sabres are at only 14.7%.

My point is..lets say the Sabres could change coaches and the same players who converate at 14.7% when they get those shots are not put on position to be there more often (lets say league average.)  They would have 48 more shots, at 14.7%, which would (statisticall) equal about 7 more goals for the year.

But lets flip it around.  Lets say the same coaching staff gets them 'only ' 545 shots from those high danger areas, but they convert at just league average rate (19.7%).  That gives them 27 more goals. So to me, this is more on the players than it is the coaces.  Last year they converted in those high danger areas at 19.1%.

  Last year they were 3rd in the leauge in goals, and stil last year they were slightly below average in terms of total shots taken from the high danger areas.  The main difference from this year to last year is the rate the players are converting those high danger shots.  Whether it's Tage's wrist injury, Tuch being banged up since camp, Cozens regressing...etc.   

When you dig really deep into analytics, the 'fancy stats', you can come up with numbers to support any point of view you want.  My main point is the one thing that doesn't change is simply this...compared to last year, the drop off in goals is due mostly/mainly to players simply not converting on chance this year that they were last year.

Edited April 3 by mjd1001

[Weave]

35 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Maybe, but the conversation I’m trying to have is about this summer, not last summer.

Is starting the season with Luukkonen (by this season’s numbers a good starter) and Levi (by this season’s numbers an average backup) a problem in need of an active solution?

Running the goalie situation back is inherently risky.  Given the state of this franchise, I think it is resources well spent to de-risk it.

[Thorny]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Why should it be considered a problem?

20 nhl starts doesn’t make a solution. It represents only a potential one. The problem exists until it’s solved, not until it hypothetically could be 

40 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

"Donny said 'The plan next year is...' So this means ...This means Donny is 100% back next year? Clearly him and GMKA have talked about this?"

All it implies about Donny's return is that he hasn't been notified of his dismissal yet.

I saw the quote as less relevant re Donny and more relevant re the goaltending 

[Thorny]

32 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I was thinking this while watching last night and running the tape back to Adams trade deadline presser.

Plug Greenway into Rousek’s slot with Krebs and Skinner, add 3 fast, tenacious forecheckers, one of which is a defensively strong 3/4C and we’re looking at next year’s roster.

Its going to make the place really hard to read this summer but it’s going to happen.

Come November, most of Sabrespace will either be eating crow, or praying it’s not too late for our new coach to get us back in the race.

There’s absolutely a moratorium on “crow eating” if it takes 5 years. Can we go ahead and get that out of the way, now?

“See? I called it! Kevyn Adams is great!” receipts expire after missing the playoffs this year

If we make the playoffs next year it’s, “ok, you can keep your job”