2023 NHL draft rankings

[Archie Lee]

15 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Final Consensus Update - 17 different rankings utilized including  TSN (2), Athletic (2), McKeens, Elite prospects, Yahoo (Kennedy), Hockey News (2), Smaht, Flo Hockey, Dobber, Shane Malloy, Recruit Scouting, Daily Faceoff, Sportsnet (Bukala), and FC Hockey.

1. Bedard, 2-Fantilli, Tie 3rd, Michkov and Carlsson

5-7, Smith, Benson, Leonard

8-11, Dvorsky, Moore, Pelikka and Reinbacher

Gap

12-18, Wood, Barlow, Perreault, Danielson, Sale, Simashev, Yager

19-24, Willander, Musty, Honzek, Cristall, Brindley, Stenberg

25-28, Ritchie, But, Gulyaev, Heidt

There is a huge cliff after Heidt.  No one has consistent 1st rd grades after 28

29-32, Nadeau Dragicevic, Gauthier, Edstrom

2nd Round

33-35, Hrabel, Molgaard, Bonk,

36-39, Haltunnen, Molendyk, Perron, Stramel

40-42, Sawchyn, Augustine, Ziemmer

Gap

43-48, Hameenaho, Lindstein, Brzustewicz, Morin, Cagnoni, Akey, Morin

49-53, Minnetian, Price, Strbak, Wahlberg, Whitelaw

54-55, Lardis, Nelson

56-59, Rehkopf, Ciernik, Bjarnason, Kantserov,

60-63, Cataford, Dvorak, Dower-Nilsson, Barkey

Large Gap - Round 3

64-66, Lind, Pinelli, Suniev,

Gap

67-69,  Strathmann, Pitre, Kiiskinen

70-71, Cam Allen, Cowan.  

Gap

72-74, Fowler, Myatovic, Gajan,

75-76, Nordh, Jarventie

77-80, Rykov, Terrance, Bertucci, Unger Sorum

81-85, Gibson, Burns, Misiak, Mania, Nilsson

86-90, McCarthy, Pekarcik, Ratzlaff, Kumpulainen, Nurmi,

91-98, Mukhanov, Wikman, Karki, Cleveland, Touirigny, Fink, Peddle, Shaugabay

Others: Sothern, Ludkte, Forsfjall, Miedema, Levis, MacKinnon

 

Thanks for this. Great work. From my “research”, the most likely to fall to us are Moore, Pelikka and, to a lesser extent, Benson. I would be very surprised to shocked if anyone else in your top 11 fell to us. The most likely to move up and be gone at our pick are Willander, Wood, Perreault  and Danielson. 
 

I have my preferences, but won’t find it hard to get behind almost every player in your top 24, the exceptions being Cristall and Brindley. Nothing against those two, but I think they are higher risk and should go later than 13. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, Buffalonill said:

He isn't TNT though

Your right.  He’s a more highly thought of prospect in his draft year.  

Thompson was taken 26th in 2016.  He had 14 goals and 32 pts in 36 games with Uconn his draft year.

Wood is a consensus top 15 player, many have him as a top 10 player.  He had a similar pt total at UConn this year as TNT, but was dominate at U18s with 13 pts (7 goals) in 7 games.

 

[LGR4GM]

4 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Your right.  He’s a more highly thought of prospect in his draft year.  

Thompson was taken 26th in 2016.  He had 14 goals and 32 pts in 36 games with Uconn his draft year.

Wood is a consensus top 15 player, many have him as a top 10 player.  He had a similar pt total at UConn this year as TNT, but was dominate at U18s with 13 pts (7 goals) in 7 games.

 

I encourage you to watch him at the u18. I wouldn't call him dominant. 

[LGR4GM]

I'm not sold on wood as a top 6 forward. The footspeed and edges aren't there for me but he might get there. At 13 I wouldn't lose my mind over it. 

[Buffalonill]

31 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Your right.  He’s a more highly thought of prospect in his draft year.  

Thompson was taken 26th in 2016.  He had 14 goals and 32 pts in 36 games with Uconn his draft year.

Wood is a consensus top 15 player, many have him as a top 10 player.  He had a similar pt total at UConn this year as TNT, but was dominate at U18s with 13 pts (7 goals) in 7 games.

 

You do realize he doesn't have any speed or skills to make plays at center .

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, Buffalonill said:

You do realize he doesn't have any speed or skills to make plays at center .

 

Considering he's a RW, he's not expected to be a center.  His skating is universally stated as an issue, but according to his coaches, it's improving.

“His skating just kept getting better,” said Didmon. “So I don’t worry about his skating because it has just been on a steady incline and progression over the last three years.”

https://theathletic.com/4457512/2023/04/29/nhl-draft-matthew-wood/

I doubt KA drafts Wood, even if he is available, but I think the "skating issue" is way overblown. This kid was the youngest player in the NCAA last season and was still basically a pt a game player.  I watched some UConn games and he was able to physically beat older players and his speed never looked like a major problem.

[LGR4GM]

Anybody wanna draft Canadian JJP? 

 

[French Collection]

22 hours ago, Weave said:

Honest question, do goalies drafted as over agers have a higher hit rate than goalies drafted in their first season of eligibility?

OK, I did some work on this question because I was curious about this as well.

I used the 2003-2022 drafts, 20 years.

I used the threshold of 75 games played to qualify as an NHL goalie. I often see 100 games for a player and I thought goalies at best play only 3/4 of the season (60/82).

I didn’t use drafts from 2018-2022 for career numbers because most of those guys haven’t broken in to the league yet. Even guys from as far back as the 2012 draft can still get to 75 games so the numbers of NHLers will change.

475 goalies drafted, almost 24 per year.

125 of them were overage draftees, 26%.

73 goalies played at least 75 games in the NHL.

19 of them were overage draftees, 26%.

84 more goalies have played between 1 and 66 games, mostly in the 1-10 game range.

25 of them were overage draftees, 30%.

Nothing groundbreaking about overage goalies from these numbers. 
It seems like teams are picking mostly 18 year olds because it is their first year of eligibility and they don’t want to miss out on them. 

Notable overage goalies drafted in this period:

Rinne, Hellebuyck, Quick, Kuemper, Sorokin, Andersen, Howard, Ullmark, Hill, Merzlikins, Vejmelka.

 

Goalie development is strange, many later picks turn out pretty good. It’s tough to select players at 18 who will need 2-5 years of development. Goalies need even more time.

 

[LGR4GM]

 

[French Collection]

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

 

Imagine the points Bedard would have added playing a full Covid-19 season.

Benson may slide but I can’t him dropping to 13. It would be great to have him and Savoie as prospects.

[GASabresIUFAN]

35 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

 

Size matters .

[LGR4GM]

22 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Size matters .

Sometimes.

[Crusader1969]

27 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Size matters .

On Defence I would agree 

[GASabresIUFAN]

5 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Sometimes.

That’s what she said

[Flashsabre]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/jason-bukalas-2023-nhl-mock-draft-what-happens-after-bedard-goes-first/

Willander at #13, Simashev 32nd to Vegas, no Musty in First Round

Edited June 26, 2023 by Flashsabre

[GASabresIUFAN]

8 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

On Defence I would agree 

I think it matters at forward, especially as the bigger guys mature.  You can’t tell me that Cozens, TnT and Tuch don’t benefit from their size advantage.  Pronman’s point is that we don’t have a forward in the pipeline who can grow into that type of player.  Neuchev is the closest.  That doesn’t mean Kulich and Savoie won’t be good NHLers, you just don’t want a whole forward group of those size players.

On defense, I’m a firm believer that we need as many redwoods that can skate as possible.

[GASabresIUFAN]

10 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/jason-bukalas-2023-nhl-mock-draft-what-happens-after-bedard-goes-first/

Willander at #13, Simashev 32nd to Vegas, no Musty in First Round

I’d be very happy with Willander at 13.  I found it interesting that Honzek found his way into the top 10 in this mock draft.  If Musty falls into the 2nd rd (I doubt it) KA has to get the kid.

[LGR4GM]

 

[French Collection]

I want the Sabres to take a Dman due to a lack of them in the pipeline.

BPA is what I believe should be taken, especially in the first round.

I think Reinbacher will be gone because of a lack of high end Dmen. He has size and is a coveted RHD.

Sandin-Pellikka may be available but imo is not a fit for the Sabres. Minus Dahlin or Power I would want him as a potential PP QB.

Simashev is who I love at 13 (skates like a gazelle and is built like a truck) but that may be a reach. He could go anywhere from 10-35.

Willander could end up as the best Dman in this class. He skates well, is a good all around player and is a RHD.

At forward if any of Benson, Leonard or Dvorsky fall then they are probably BPA.

I would be happy with any of Moore, Wood, Barlow or Perreault.

I would be surprised but OK with Danielson, Honzek, Musty or Ritchie.

This is a very wide list but I find there are a lot of possibilities.

[French Collection]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

 

Good insight on BPA. He says thinking positionally is a trap that can get you into trouble.

[dudacek]

Kris Baker’s mock on Sabres Live makes a ton of sense to me as he explains his reasoning:

• Chi Bedard
• Ana - Fantilli
• Cbs - Carlsson
• SJ - Michkov
• Mon - Smith
• Ari - Reinbacher
• Phi - Leonard
• Was - Dvorsky
• Det - Wood
• Stl. - Danielson
• Van - Willander
• Ari - Benson
• Buf - Sandin-Pelikka

He says there are 5 or 6 guys you can make a case for the Sabres: Perreault, Barlow, Yager and Moore.

But there are also 2 defencemen worthy of the pick: he loves Simashev, but he thinks Pelikka’s upside and skill on the right side will be too much for the Sabres to ignore.

He says if they don’t go for a D, Moore will be the pick: his compete, speed and role versatility fits the Sabres philosophy to a T.

Says choosing between the 3 was making him feel sick.

I think I’d be happy with any of the three, or even most of the 6.

This was from Sabres Live today. Great listen.

https://www.audacy.com/wgr550/hosts/sabres-live

 

Edited June 26, 2023 by dudacek

[Thorny]

9 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Kris Baker’s mock on Sabres Live makes a ton of sense to me as he explains his reasoning:

• Chi Bedard
• Ana - Fantilli
• Cbs - Carlsson
• SJ - Michkov
• Mon - Smith
• Ari - Reinbacher
• Phi - Leonard
• Was - Dvorsky
• Det - Wood
• Stl. - Danielson
• Van - Willander
• Ari - Benson
• Buf - Sandin-Pelikka

He says there are 5 or 6 guys you can make a case for the Sabres: Perreault, Barlow, Yager and Moore.

But there are also 2 defencemen worthy of the pick: he loves Simashev, but he thinks Pelikka’s upside and skill on the right side will be too much for the Sabres to ignore.

He says if they don’t go for a D, Moore will be the pick: his compete, speed and role versatility fits the Sabres philosophy to a T.

Says choosing between the 3 was making him feel sick

This was from Sabres Live today. Great listen.

https://www.audacy.com/wgr550/hosts/sabres-live

 

Do you think Adams will draft based on a BPA philosophy or do you think position will factor in significantly? (Yes, there’s the semantic “best is subjective and can include position” @GA but let’s just go with a more strict definition of “best” for the sake of argument  

)

[dudacek]

6 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Do you think Adams will draft based on a BPA philosophy or do you think position will factor in significantly? (Yes, there’s the semantic “best is subjective and can include position” @GA but let’s just go with a more strict definition of “best” for the sake of argument  

Baker seems to be saying Simashev is best fit and Moore is the best “Sabre,” but Sandin-Pelikka is the best player, as in has the best chance to be a star.

So he seems to be suggesting BPA.

ASP is kinda weird to factor for me because RHD is a big position of need, but offensive defenceman is not.

That said Adams seems to have consistently gone for upside (as defined by talent+competitiveness) in his picks so why should we expect him to change?

Edited June 26, 2023 by dudacek

[Thorny]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Baker seems to be saying Simashev is best fit and Moore is the best “Sabre,” but Sandin-Pelikka is the best player, as in has the best chance to be a star.

So he seems to be suggesting BPA.

ASP is kinda weird to factor for me because RHD is a big position of need, but offensive defenceman is not.

That said Adams seems to have consistently gone for upside (as defined by talent+competitiveness) in his picks so why should we expect him to change?

What’s the difference between “best fit” and “best Sabre” 

No regard for position in the latter?

[LGR4GM]

14 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Do you think Adams will draft based on a BPA philosophy or do you think position will factor in significantly? (Yes, there’s the semantic “best is subjective and can include position” @GA but let’s just go with a more strict definition of “best” for the sake of argument  

)

Forton said they specifically talk about how the position a guy plays doesn't matter. Basically they double check their bias to make sure that's not why a player is ranked over another.