GDT: Sabres at Calgary Flames. March 18th, 2022. MSG-B, SN, WGR550

[Curt]

28 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Less pressure to perform than a preseason game. Discuss.

A lot of these guys are either young players who are playing to establish themselves in the NHL, or fringe NHLers who are playing to stay in the league.  So, there should be pressure there.

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, PASabreFan said:

Less pressure to perform than a preseason game. Discuss.

Embarrassed the previous night, then moving on to one of the toughest arenas in the league.

Should have been a lot more pressure in Calgary.

Add the trade deadline as a pressure point for the UFAs equal to “make the team” as the preseason bubble players.

[PromoTheRobot]

1 hour ago, PASabreFan said:

Less pressure to perform than a preseason game. Discuss.

Oh if only it's that easy. The Secret to winning a Cup: Simply not caring about winning a Cup. 😂

Gotta hand it to

@PASabreFan

He never quits trying to undersell what the Sabres are doing.

Edited March 20, 2022 by PromoTheRobot

[PASabreFan]

15 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Embarrassed the previous night, then moving on to one of the toughest arenas in the league.

Should have been a lot more pressure in Calgary.

Add the trade deadline as a pressure point for the UFAs equal to “make the team” as the preseason bubble players.

The point should seem obvious. The only data points we have on this team show that when the games mattered, their performance was not good. It remains to be seen how these guys will perform during real March Madness.

8 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Oh if only it's that easy. The Secret to winning a Cup: Simply not caring about winning a Cup. 😂

Gotta hand it to

@PASabreFan

He never quits trying to undersell what the Sabres are doing.

You of all people.

For the record, they are doing Jack Squat. Your whiny ass will be heard in October when you know deep down the results matter again.

[dudacek]

4 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

The point should seem obvious. The only data points we have on this team show that when the games mattered, their performance was not good. It remains to be seen how these guys will perform during real March Madness.

You didn’t respond when I asked earlier.

In your mind is the current run of 5-3 against teams in playoff races the equivalent of the 4/28 record they put up the three previous Marches combined?

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

The point should seem obvious. The only data points we have on this team show that when the games mattered, their performance was not good. It remains to be seen how these guys will perform during real March Madness.

You of all people.

For the record, they are doing Jack Squat. Your whiny ass will be heard in October when you know deep down the results matter again.

Except we have won more games in March than the past 3 years combined but don't let pesky things like facts get in the way. So if games are magically easier when the "pressure is off" Buffalo, why is it that the other teams who are under pressure for playoff seeding kicked our ass in every previous season? You created a hypothesis, believe it is true, have nothing even remotely resembling facts/data to back it up and here we are. The Sabres are different, what that ends up translating to in October is anyone's guess. 

 

Just now, dudacek said:

You didn’t respond when I asked earlier.

In your mind is the current run of 5-3 against teams in playoff races the equivalent of the 4/28 record they put up the three previous Marches combined?

He knows he can't answer your question because it blows his hypothesis to hell. 

[PromoTheRobot]

9 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

 

You of all people.

For the record, they are doing Jack Squat. Your whiny ass will be heard in October when you know deep down the results matter again.

Well if I'm expecting a playoff berth next year, maybe. But I'm not. I think they might do it but if they don't I'm not going to lose my mind. Most knowledgeable observers think it's two more years to a truly competitive team.

But that's good news for you. You'll have at least two more years of casting aspersions without looking (any more) foolish.

Edited March 20, 2022 by PromoTheRobot

[PASabreFan]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

You didn’t respond when I asked earlier.

In your mind is the current run of 5-3 against teams in playoff races the equivalent of the 4/28 record they put up the three previous Marches combined?

There's no They. You can't compare any of these Marches. And I'm not sure what you mean by equivalent.

It's not a controversial point or hypothesis. I'll get excited when I see the Sabres playing well over an extended period to start next season. Anything else is superstition: that they can bottle whatever they're doing and re-open it in October.

2 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Well if I'm expecting a playoff berth next year, maybe. But I'm not. I think they might do it but if they don't I'm not going to lose my mind. Most knowledgeable observers think it's two more years to a truly competitive team.

But that's good news for you. You'll have at least two more years of casting aspersions without looking (any more) foolish.

I cast aspersions almost immediately on Terry and relatively quickly on Jack. How did that work out for ya?

You'll all come around on this one, too.

[PASabreFan]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Except we have won more games in March than the past 3 years combined but don't let pesky things like facts get in the way. So if games are magically easier when the "pressure is off" Buffalo, why is it that the other teams who are under pressure for playoff seeding kicked our ass in every previous season? You created a hypothesis, believe it is true, have nothing even remotely resembling facts/data to back it up and here we are. The Sabres are different, what that ends up translating to in October is anyone's guess. 

 

He knows he can't answer your question because it blows his hypothesis to hell. 

There's no We, They or "The Sabres." Last year's March Sabres didn't figure out how to win this March. The team, I would think and most people think, also will be very different in the fall.

Enjoy the wins, but ultimately you are right: October is still anyone's guess. FTR I'm pretty optimistic next year's Sabres will have a better record. I'm not going out on a huge limb there.

Edited March 20, 2022 by PASabreFan

[LGR4GM]

Just now, PASabreFan said:

There's no We, They or "The Sabres." Last year's March Sabres didn't figure out how to win this March. The team, I would think and most people think, will be very different in the fall.

Enjoy the wins, but ultimately you are right: October is still anyone's guess. FTR I'm pretty optimistic next year's Sabres will have a better record. I'm not going out on a huge limb there.

What's this have to do with them magically being better because "pressure is off"?

[Randall Flagg]

I don't think the inherent pressure of "game importance" has played an appreciable role in the results for any Sabres team in the last 11 years. I could be convinced this matters in March IF you are in a playoff run, or in the playoff itself. 

So I don't think the Sabres' success this March, or lack of it in other months and other years, has to be explained away as random noise, or as a comfy equilibrium following the opening of a pressure release valve. There are explainable factors for other brief periods of success (Oct-Dec of 2018) when pressure was high, and for their downfall afterwards, which don't support or disprove the idea that those Sabres at that time were implicitly better or worse at handling the grind when games still mattered.

The March games don't "matter" but that doesn't mean that you can't parse what is going right and believe that those things can be present, and potentially even improved, come the fall, and the argument IS made stronger by the general characteristics of March NHL hockey and how these results have distinguished themselves from years past. It's as valid of a thought process as the complete dismissal of anything that is going on. The comparison isn't being made directly between the March 2017 iteration of the Buffalo Sabres and the March 2022 version, but people are trying to tease out the causes for the difference and can reasonably argue that they've found tangible explanations rather than quantum fluctuations in the hockey-void

What role did "no pressure" play in a win compared to the fact that Tage or Dahlin has figured something out, and which is more likely to leave its mark (or have its absence show) in October "when games matter" ?

Everyone agrees either way that a lot of work needs to be done to make sure that the traits people are excited about can actually translate next year, and that work won't involve psychological conditioning to make sure players can do things when they're still tied with Boston, it will involve complementing the good things happening on the ice now with more good things at more positions where the Sabres are still lacking...ie the positions that are the reason the hockey right now doesn't matter

 

[Randall Flagg]

So even if it's true that the Sabres have less pressure to perform than they would in a preseason game (I think this is just an exaggeration that is meant to emphasize the spirit of the claim) IMO that doesn't matter or shape what will happen on the ice, and doesn't have to doom its relevance to the future as "not at all" 

[nfreeman]

I will support @PASabreFan on this one. As I’ve said many times, when the Sabres reach their annual bottom five spot in the dog days of March, they are not getting the other teams’ A games most nights. They just aren’t.  And there is undeniably less pressure on the team when the playoffs are out of reach and mistakes matter less.

PA has a knack for getting under the board’s skin, but i’m sure he enjoyed the wins over Minnesota and the leafs and the flames, and celebrated TT’s OT winner the other night, as much as anyone else here.  He’s just not ready to pronounce the battle won yet.

[LGR4GM]

18 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I will support @PASabreFan on this one. As I’ve said many times, when the Sabres reach their annual bottom five spot in the dog days of March, they are not getting the other teams’ A games most nights. They just aren’t.  And there is undeniably less pressure on the team when the playoffs are out of reach and mistakes matter less.

PA has a knack for getting under the board’s skin, but i’m sure he enjoyed the wins over Minnesota and the leafs and the flames, and celebrated TT’s OT winner the other night, as much as anyone else here.  He’s just not ready to pronounce the battle won yet.

And yet neither of you have provided anything close to a rational argument for your position. 

Also why are teams fighting for playoffs not taking a chance to get 2 points against Buffalo seriously? Which team didn't play us hard? 

[LGR4GM]

Why in the last 3 years when Buffalo was out in March did their record look like trash? 

How come there is no pressure? Why wouldn't there be internal pressure? 

[Porous Five Hole]

As an aside, I don’t believe any team was taking the night off against Buffalo in March 2022.
There’s no doubt that both Vegas & Toronto did NOT take the Sabres lightly (given the weight/circumstances surrounding those games). While the Wild started their backup, he’s 12-3 this year. And Calgary ran their starting goalie out there.  

[nfreeman]

5 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

And yet neither of you have provided anything close to a rational argument for your position. 

Also why are teams fighting for playoffs not taking a chance to get 2 points against Buffalo seriously? Which team didn't play us hard? 

 

5 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Why in the last 3 years when Buffalo was out in March did their record look like trash? 

How come there is no pressure? Why wouldn't there be internal pressure? 

 

4 hours ago, Porous Five Hole said:

As an aside, I don’t believe any team was taking the night off against Buffalo in March 2022.
There’s no doubt that both Vegas & Toronto did NOT take the Sabres lightly (given the weight/circumstances surrounding those games). While the Wild started their backup, he’s 12-3 this year. And Calgary ran their starting goalie out there.  

These are all fair questions/observations.  I think the main reason I have this opinion is simply human nature -- even though the opponent wants to win and has motivation to do so, they simply do not bring the same focus and intensity against the bottom dwellers as they do against the top teams.  The Sabres were a bad team having a bad season and had lost 6 in a row to close out February.  When an upper echelon team knows they are hosting a team like that, it's natural to let down its guard and feel like they can just show up and grind out the win.

As for prior Sabres teams' records in March -- of course they were terrible.  The Sabres have been a joke of a franchise for a long time.  The last years of DDB, Howie and RK were all utter debacles.

As for the Vegas, Toronto, Calgary and Minny games -- those were all great wins, which I really enjoyed, and I agree that there was plenty of intensity in those games.  Still, the Leafs, 4th in the NHL in scoring, had 6 shots in the 1st period, Vegas had 7 and Calgary, 6th in the NHL in scoring, had 6.  Those teams didn't exactly hit the ice like the beach at Normandy.

I think the Sabres look a lot better than in prior Marches, and I'm excited about a lot of what I see.  But I won't really believe anything until I see them in 2nd or 3rd place in December, going into Boston or Pittsburgh or New York on a 5-game winning streak for a national TV game and coming out with a win.

[Doohickie]

2 hours ago, nfreeman said:

But I won't really believe anything until I see them in 2nd or 3rd place in December, going into Boston or Pittsburgh or New York on a 5-game winning streak for a national TV game and coming out with a win.

(It's okay, we're all shell shocked from following the Sabres too long.)

[LGR4GM]

7 hours ago, nfreeman said:

 

 

These are all fair questions/observations.  I think the main reason I have this opinion is simply human nature -- even though the opponent wants to win and has motivation to do so, they simply do not bring the same focus and intensity against the bottom dwellers as they do against the top teams.  The Sabres were a bad team having a bad season and had lost 6 in a row to close out February.  When an upper echelon team knows they are hosting a team like that, it's natural to let down its guard and feel like they can just show up and grind out the win.

As for prior Sabres teams' records in March -- of course they were terrible.  The Sabres have been a joke of a franchise for a long time.  The last years of DDB, Howie and RK were all utter debacles.

As for the Vegas, Toronto, Calgary and Minny games -- those were all great wins, which I really enjoyed, and I agree that there was plenty of intensity in those games.  Still, the Leafs, 4th in the NHL in scoring, had 6 shots in the 1st period, Vegas had 7 and Calgary, 6th in the NHL in scoring, had 6.  Those teams didn't exactly hit the ice like the beach at Normandy.

I think the Sabres look a lot better than in prior Marches, and I'm excited about a lot of what I see.  But I won't really believe anything until I see them in 2nd or 3rd place in December, going into Boston or Pittsburgh or New York on a 5-game winning streak for a national TV game and coming out with a win.

Everything about this paragraph is wrong because it completely discounts the fact the Sabres played well and kept those teams to those shot totals. It's a blatant attempt to strip credit away from the Sabres. Maybe the Sabres are finally becoming good enough to assert their will on games instead of them being dictated by the other team, ever consider that?

It stinks of "we aren't good, the other team was just bad that day". It's defeatist rhetoric and the exact type of crap the Sabres needed out of their locker room. 

[Curt]

9 hours ago, nfreeman said:

 

 

These are all fair questions/observations.  I think the main reason I have this opinion is simply human nature -- even though the opponent wants to win and has motivation to do so, they simply do not bring the same focus and intensity against the bottom dwellers as they do against the top teams.  The Sabres were a bad team having a bad season and had lost 6 in a row to close out February.  When an upper echelon team knows they are hosting a team like that, it's natural to let down its guard and feel like they can just show up and grind out the win.

As for prior Sabres teams' records in March -- of course they were terrible.  The Sabres have been a joke of a franchise for a long time.  The last years of DDB, Howie and RK were all utter debacles.

As for the Vegas, Toronto, Calgary and Minny games -- those were all great wins, which I really enjoyed, and I agree that there was plenty of intensity in those games.  Still, the Leafs, 4th in the NHL in scoring, had 6 shots in the 1st period, Vegas had 7 and Calgary, 6th in the NHL in scoring, had 6.  Those teams didn't exactly hit the ice like the beach at Normandy.

I think the Sabres look a lot better than in prior Marches, and I'm excited about a lot of what I see.  But I won't really believe anything until I see them in 2nd or 3rd place in December, going into Boston or Pittsburgh or New York on a 5-game winning streak for a national TV game and coming out with a win.

@PASabreFan

You don’t need to come out and say that the Sabres are “good” now.  I don’t know exactly how good they will be next season.  You can say that the pressure is off or opponents aren’t trying that hard.  Maybe there is a little truth to that.

All I know is that in years past, when there was “less pressure than a preseason game”, the Sabres still played f’ng terrible, and right now they aren’t playing terrible.  In addition, many of the young players who should be key contributors going forward are showing progression and showing that they care.  Seeing that has got to be a lot more encouraging than seeing the team play terribly.

If you feel the same inside watching this team in March vs the past few years in March, then I think your insides might be broken.

 

[nfreeman]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Everything about this paragraph is wrong because it completely discounts the fact the Sabres played well and kept those teams to those shot totals. It's a blatant attempt to strip credit away from the Sabres. Maybe the Sabres are finally becoming good enough to assert their will on games instead of them being dictated by the other team, ever consider that?

It stinks of "we aren't good, the other team was just bad that day". It's defeatist rhetoric and the exact type of crap the Sabres needed out of their locker room. 

I think “possibility” is probably more appropriate than “fact” here.

Do you think high-end opponents generally bring their A games vs bottom dwellers?  Do you think they bring the same level of focus and intensity every night?

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, nfreeman said:

I think “possibility” is probably more appropriate than “fact” here.

Do you think high-end opponents generally bring their A games vs bottom dwellers?  Do you think they bring the same level of focus and intensity every night?

Yes I think a team like Calgary that has only lost 4 home games, brings the same level of focus. I think a team like Minnesota which is on the road and needs playoff points brings the focus. I think Toronto wants to win the outdoor game. I think Vegas needs to win for the playoffs. 

Again, it's a defeatist attitude you're hocking here. These games are harder, not easier. It's why in years past the Sabres fell apart after Christmas. 

You and PA are wrong. 

[SwampD]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Yes I think a team like Calgary that has only lost 4 home games, brings the same level of focus. I think a team like Minnesota which is on the road and needs playoff points brings the focus. I think Toronto wants to win the outdoor game. I think Vegas needs to win for the playoffs. 

Again, it's a defeatist attitude you're hocking here. These games are harder, not easier. It's why in years past the Sabres fell apart after Christmas. 

You and PA are wrong. 

Everyone here (I'm assuming even PA and Free) hopes that this statement is correct.

And while I admit the hockey looks different and has been fun to watch, I'm still going to wait and see.

We just can't pretend that the EDM, LA, Florida, Dallas, St. L, Habs, CBJ, Aves, and Sens games didn't happen, after all.

[nfreeman]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Yes I think a team like Calgary that has only lost 4 home games, brings the same level of focus. I think a team like Minnesota which is on the road and needs playoff points brings the focus. I think Toronto wants to win the outdoor game. I think Vegas needs to win for the playoffs. 

Again, it's a defeatist attitude you're hocking here. These games are harder, not easier. It's why in years past the Sabres fell apart after Christmas. 

You and PA are wrong. 

Flames 1st period shots on goal in games immediately before and after Sabres game:  19, 16, 11, 9  (6 vs Sabres).

Leafs 1st period shots on goal in games immediately before and after Sabres game:  13, 11, 8, 10  (6 vs Sabres).

Again, I am excited about the signs of life we're seeing.  That can be true at the same time as other things being true.  One of those other things IMHO is that good teams generally don't get as fired up and focused against crappy teams as they do against other good teams.

You are of course free to disagree.

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, nfreeman said:

Flames 1st period shots on goal in games immediately before and after Sabres game:  19, 16, 11, 9  (6 vs Sabres).

Leafs 1st period shots on goal in games immediately before and after Sabres game:  13, 11, 8, 10  (6 vs Sabres).

Again, I am excited about the signs of life we're seeing.  That can be true at the same time as other things being true.  One of those other things IMHO is that good teams generally don't get as fired up and focused against crappy teams as they do against other good teams.

You are of course free to disagree.

I disagree. Watched both games and Sabres controlled play in those first periods which is a testament to the Sabres not an indication of the Leafs or the Flames.