What if the Kane Bogosian + for Myers Stafford + Trade DIDN'T Happen?

[Taro T]

We all know Murray's 1st real restructuring for key pieces to be in the rebuild was the trade that (along with the Enroth to Dallas deal) pretty much sealed the Tank and landed Eichel rather than Strome or Marner.

But what if GMTM hadn't sent that whole package to the Jets, but instead merely sent Stafford somewhere for a 2nd and sent Myers somewhere else for a 1st or 2nd so that season still follows the same trajectory?  They keep Armia & the rights to Lemieux.

Does that end up leaving Eichel & Reinhart being influenced more by the vets than their best 2 buds?  Maybe even ending up more in O'Reilly's orbit so that horrible trade to St. Louis never happens as there's no concern over Jack & Ryan "hating each other" (ha!).

Does that leave Murray still desperate for a Kane-esque power forward and giving up other assets to land him, possibly even more than he gave up for Kane?  Do the Sabres braintrust figure out that Armia is a defensive specialist with some offensive upside rather than a key top 6 scoring winger that he was touted as?  Does Lemieux follow through on his threat to not sign an ELC in Buffalo?  Is the late 1st the Sabres theoretically get for Myers good enough that the Sabres can offer that to Ottawa in the Lehner deal & keep & actually use the pick they sent to the Otters? 

Pretty sure that was the 1st of the trades that Murray made that demonstrated how he truly didn't care about chemistry but merely physical skills.  If it doesn't happen, are we lost in the desert for at minimum 6 more years?  What other dominoes don't fall?

Edited July 1, 2021 by Taro T

[GASabresIUFAN]

The world and the Sabres would be a better place, although honestly the deals I dislike more where the horrible Lehner trade and the even dumber McNabb trade. 

[Pimlach]

I think that will go down as a horrible trade by a poor GM.  There should have been some Sabres veterans on those teams as well.  Chemistry is critical.  
 

He missed more character concerns with ROR and Lehner too. it’s well documented, the young guys went wild which is part of the reason they don’t know how to win.  

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The world and the Sabres would be a better place, although honestly the deals I dislike more where the horrible Lehner trade and the even dumber McNabb trade. 

The Lehner trade, in & of itself, wasn't bad.  Murray & everybody else having no idea about his personal issues & thus not providing him any support to work through them made it horrible.

[Taro T]

2 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

I think that will go down as a horrible trade by a poor GM.  There should have been some Sabres veterans on those teams as well.  Chemistry is critical.  
 

He missed more character concerns with ROR and Lehner too. it’s well documented, the young guys went wild which is part of the reason they don’t know how to win.  

Due to the intangibles that came with the trade agree that it was bad. 

But at the time & even in hindsight it was equivalent value. 

But, thinking about how much differently things could have been in the next 1/2 dozen seasons had the intangibles that now seem to have come with that trade been avoided, ...

[Pimlach]

2 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Due to the intangibles that came with the trade agree that it was bad. 

But at the time & even in hindsight it was equivalent value. 

But, thinking about how much differently things could have been in the next 1/2 dozen seasons had the intangibles that now seem to have come with that trade been avoided, ...

I think we gave up too much to Winnipeg and too much for Lehner as well. 
 

Murray is out of the NHL.  

[Taro T]

9 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

I think we gave up too much to Winnipeg and too much for Lehner as well. 
 

Murray is out of the NHL.  

But with the Lehner deal had Murray given up 31 for him, nobody would've batted an eye.  And if 21 were included in the O'Reilly deal, nobody would've cared either.  IMHO.

[PerreaultForever]

Murray definitely thought he had a quick rebuild plan but I still think on paper it wasn't necessarily terrible and many people might have made the same mistakes. I'm mostly pissed with Murray for throwing away so many top picks cavalierly. Lehner's price was too high. Armia should never have been given away. Given how it turned out in the end, we never should have traded for ROR and kept Compher and Zadorov etc. 

If you bottom out and commit to rebuilding with a new young core you should stick to that and not suddenly trade everything away to win as soon as the "generational " guy shows up. maybe this time, if that's what we are in fact doing, maybe this time we stick with that and actually develop something special. 

[Hoss]

2 hours ago, Pimlach said:

I think that will go down as a horrible trade by a poor GM.  There should have been some Sabres veterans on those teams as well.  Chemistry is critical.  
 

He missed more character concerns with ROR and Lehner too. it’s well documented, the young guys went wild which is part of the reason they don’t know how to win.  

I disagree wholeheartedly. I think this was a very good trade by a GM who knew exactly what he was doing. He also knocked the ROR trade out of the park.

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, Taro T said:

The Lehner trade, in & of itself, wasn't bad.  Murray & everybody else having no idea about his personal issues & thus not providing him any support to work through them made it horrible.

Murray may not known about his personal problems, but as the former Ast GM of the Sens Murray knew that Lehner had lingering issues from a concussion and other injuries when he acquired for a 1st and took on Legwand's contract.  Lehner hadn't established himself at a No.1 goalie when acquired over 5 years in Ottawa because of a string of injuries.  He was damaged goods when acquired.  TM also paid a 1st for a guy, when similar goalies like Cam Talbot, were going for a 2nd or less.  Furthermore he took on a bad contract.  Taking this contract should have lowered the price of the deal.

It was a bad deal from the start made worse by the loss of the 1st rd pick in one of the deepest drafts ever in 2015.  They took Colin White (21st) with that pick, but we could have had All-stars forwards Brock Boeser (23rd), Travis Konecny (24th) or even future all-star goalie Iiya Samsonov (22nd) instead.   

TM's bad drafting and stupid decisions such as this trade are the foundation of why we are where we are today.  

PS TM acquired Halak in the Ryan Miller deal and then traded him (and a 3rd) for Neuvirth and a guy who refused to play for us named Kleska.  Neuvirth was 25 when we acquired him and was very solid in Wash with a .910 and 2.67 in 134 NHL games over parts of 6 seasons. 

In his 29 games with us all he did was play well with a .921 save %.

TM then downgraded him by trading him for Chad Johnson (then 29) and a 2016 3rd.  After that deal TM went to get his guy and acquired then injured Lehner who was 24 and in 86 NHL games he posted very similar numbers to Neuvirth at .914 and 2.88.

Just think had TM left well enough alone, he could have ridden the 25 year old Neuvirth for a couple of years, kept the pick and we would have had our goalie of the future in Samsanov or two top wingers.  

 

Edited July 1, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[Taro T]

9 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Murray may not known about his personal problems, but as the former Ast GM of the Sens Murray knew that Lehner had lingering issues from a concussion and other injuries when he acquired for a 1st and took on Legwand's contract.  Lehner hadn't established himself at a No.1 goalie when acquired over 5 years in Ottawa because of a string of injuries.  He was damaged goods when acquired.  TM also paid a 1st for a guy, when similar goalies like Cam Talbot, were going for a 2nd or less.  Furthermore he took on a bad contract.  Taking this contract should have lowered the price of the deal.

It was a bad deal from the start made worse by the loss of the 1st rd pick in one of the deepest drafts ever in 2015.  They took Colin White (21st) with that pick, but we could have had All-stars forwards Brock Boeser (23rd), Travis Konecny (24th) or even future all-star goalie Iiya Samsonov (22nd) instead.   

TM's bad drafting and stupid decisions such as this trade are the foundation of why we are where we are today.  

PS TM acquired Halak in the Ryan Miller deal and then traded him (and a 3rd) for Neuvirth and a guy who refused to play for us named Kleska.  Neuvirth was 25 when we acquired him and was very solid in Wash with a .910 and 2.67 in 134 NHL games over parts of 6 seasons. 

In his 29 games with us all he did was play well with a .921 save %.

TM then downgraded him by trading him for Chad Johnson (then 29) and a 2016 3rd.  After that deal TM went to get his guy and acquired then injured Lehner who was 24 and in 86 NHL games he posted very similar numbers to Neuvirth at .914 and 2.88.

Just think had TM left well enough alone, he could have ridden the 25 year old Neuvirth for a couple of years, kept the pick and we would have had our goalie of the future in Samsanov or two top wingers.  

 

Don't recall Lehner having injury issues other than the major concussion he suffered in '15.   So, there was that.  But other injuries didn't seem to be a problem until the fluke ankle injury on opening night.

If the Kane trade weren't made, then the Sabres have 1 more 1st rounder (& possibly 2 if Myers brings one back in whatever deal he goes out in).  That pick sent to the 'Peg probably would've been good enough to land Lehner, but the Sabres then likely lose 21 as the Avs are going to want that for O'Reilly.  So, Samsonov is gone from the picture as a down the road option regardless.

Keeping Neuvirth probably costs the Sabres Eichel.  Wasn't going to happen & very likely even your boy Botterill would've sent him packing when he did.

Had Lehner not suffered the ankle injury his time in Buffalo might have gone very differently as he doesn't end up separated from his new team right after his lengthy recovery from the concussion.  Maybe he has time to build up confidences/ friendships on the Sabres and his mental health doesn't have the huge nosedive.  If he stays firmly centered, as he's he's shown post-Sabres, he IS worth that 21st pick.  (And Legwand is noise.  Yes, he was a salary dump, but Murray WANTED him & he actually was very good in that 4C / top PKer role.)

That said, this thread is for what might have been minus the Kane trade.  Threads dedicated towards what might have been minus McNabb or Lehner might be interesting, but not really fitting here IMHO as McNabb had already happened & Lehner still happens if Kane doesn't happen.

[Pimlach]

10 hours ago, Hoss said:

I disagree wholeheartedly. I think this was a very good trade by a GM who knew exactly what he was doing. He also knocked the ROR trade out of the park.

Yeah, it all worked out so great didn’t it?   

Bogo collected a lot of money from his lofty position on IR.  Kane taught Eichel all the best things a young player needs to know,  couldn’t stay out of trouble, and departed with no effort to retain.  

The trade to acquire ROR by itself was fine, but ROR and his drinking habits, in combination with everyone else was not good chemistry. 

Murray left us with no depth and no assets in the pipeline due to his propensity to give up too much on his deals.  
 

Murray knew exactly what he was doing, a “fast” rebuild.   Well haste makes waste.  

He was a terrible GM and a rude person on top of it.   Pretty young guy to be out of the league?   I guess he can run his father’s auto repair shop since his uncle is not around to give him a job in hockey.    

[GASabresIUFAN]

18 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Yeah, it all worked out so great didn’t it?   

Bogo collected a lot of money from his lofty position on IR.  Kane taught Eichel all the best things a young player needs to know,  couldn’t stay out of trouble, and departed with no effort to retain.  

The trade to acquire ROR by itself was fine, but ROR and his drinking habits, in combination with everyone else was not good chemistry. 

Murray left us with no depth and no assets in the pipeline due to his propensity to give up too much on his deals.  
 

Murray knew exactly what he was doing, a “fast” rebuild.   Well haste makes waste.  

He was a terrible GM and a rude person on top of it.   Pretty young guy to be out of the league?   I guess he can run his father’s auto repair shop since his uncle is not around to give him a job in hockey.    

Living high on the hog with some of TP's money.

[Weave]

Given what was moved to get Kane and Bogo, I don’t expect the team’s fortunes would have been any different than what they are today.

[Pimlach]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

Given what was moved to get Kane and Bogo, I don’t expect the team’s fortunes would have been any different than what they are today.

I don’t understand this but ok.  Move Stafford and Myers for better character players or picks.  Keep Lemieux, Armia, and that pick (Roslovic).   That is better than Bogo’s limited contributions (injury history) and Kane’s known negative influence. 
 

This is about chemistry.  The whole point is the GM did not consider chemistry and leadership.  

[Thorny]

15 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

I don’t understand this but ok.  Move Stafford and Myers for better character players or picks.  Keep Lemieux, Armia, and that pick (Roslovic).   That is better than Bogo’s limited contributions (injury history) and Kane’s known negative influence. 
 

This is about chemistry.  The whole point is the GM did not consider chemistry and leadership.  

People probably underestimate the role the macro team strategy had over this deal. Part of the appeal of Kane as an acquisition was that he came hurt, unable to play for us until the next season - helping to ensure the tank. 

[Hoss]

1 hour ago, Pimlach said:

I don’t understand this but ok.  Move Stafford and Myers for better character players or picks.  Keep Lemieux, Armia, and that pick (Roslovic).   That is better than Bogo’s limited contributions (injury history) and Kane’s known negative influence. 
 

This is about chemistry.  The whole point is the GM did not consider chemistry and leadership.  

If we’re talking about chemistry keeping Lemieux was never an option.

[Taro T]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

People probably underestimate the role the macro team strategy had over this deal. Part of the appeal of Kane as an acquisition was that he came hurt, unable to play for us until the next season - helping to ensure the tank. 

That absolutely was a big part of why he was brought in.  But what happens if Chevaldayoff (sp?) decides he 's not i terested in everything Murray threw at him?  Does the team end up as cliques & non-clicking?   Does Murray still throw a ton of value into a different trade for his coveted power winger.

Do Reinhart& Eichel end up rehearsing in an Emo band & drinking Canadian beer in their downtime or are they still into buying friends ridiculously expensive bottles of Scotch?

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, Hoss said:

If we’re talking about chemistry keeping Lemieux was never an option.

But there's 2 levels of chemistry here.  The chemistry that Murray clearly failed & the chemistrythat he hopefully could've lucked into but never did?

Maybe a thread for later in the season is what happens if Black wins the power struggle rather than the self promoter that brought Buffalo sports fans an annual TO Bills acme, Rex Ryan, & Phil Housley?

[Weave]

3 hours ago, Pimlach said:

I don’t understand this but ok.  Move Stafford and Myers for better character players or picks.  Keep Lemieux, Armia, and that pick (Roslovic).   That is better than Bogo’s limited contributions (injury history) and Kane’s known negative influence. 
 

This is about chemistry.  The whole point is the GM did not consider chemistry and leadership.  

Lemieux was never playing a game here.  Does Armia become a good bottom 6 player on a team with no centers?  Does he become a disappointing top 6 winger that isn't putting up numbers like his ceiling suggested?

We didn't give up anything consequential in the grand scheme.

[Pimlach]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

Lemieux was never playing a game here.  Does Armia become a good bottom 6 player on a team with no centers?  Does he become a disappointing top 6 winger that isn't putting up numbers like his ceiling suggested?

We didn't give up anything consequential in the grand scheme.

Lemieux - rumor was his father wanted him out of Buffalo.  Tough beans for him would be my response.  

Armia?   I don’t have a crystal ball.  We had Eichel and ROR as centers, not to bad.  He is pretty good player today.  Better than several on our team.  

We gave up too much for the oft injured Bogo (which was a known problem in Winnipeg) and the troublesome Kane ( which a known problem in Winnipeg). 

Despite Kane’s goal scoring and toughness we basically took Winnipeg’s trash. I liked Myers, Stafford (meh), Armia, and Roslovic (the draft pick) better than Bogo and Kane.  

There were several Murray trades that didn’t give up much in the “grand scheme”, then you sum them up all up and look at the returns and it’s clear he gutted too deep and gave up too much - his grand scheme was a fast rebuild and he failed.  He put us in a huge hole.   

This thread is not my passion.  I didn’t start it.  I tried to like that trade at the time, but looking back it was a rookie GM trading for skill and ignoring some important factors about the players he brought it.  Something he did consistently.   

[Rasmus_]

21 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The world and the Sabres would be a better place, although honestly the deals I dislike more where the horrible Lehner trade and the even dumber McNabb trade. 

This the McNabb trade and Lehner trades were far worse. 

[DarthEbriate]

14 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

There were several Murray trades that didn’t give up much in the “grand scheme”, then you sum them up all up and look at the returns and it’s clear he gutted too deep and gave up too much - his grand scheme was a fast rebuild and he failed.  He put us in a huge hole.   

This is really it. GMTM was a death by a bunch of paper cuts, not a single move. This trade was about clearing out softness for some grit. We all agreed then we needed it. It was successful in that regard. Bogo had something like 13 hits in his first game with the Sabres. Kane once fought 3 times (and won) in a single game, which was more than Myers or Stafford had done in the previous two years. (In later seasons, Stafford was always good for 1 fight a year so he could point out that he did, in fact, step up to protect his teammates.)

If it isn't this trade, then we move Stafford for a 2nd at the deadline. Myers still has to go for some heaviness/grit because GMTM wanted to be the LA Kings east. Armia wasn't becoming the elite shot he'd been drafted as any time soon. Lemieux, whatever. The 1st could definitely have been useful. Roslovic, Beauvillier, Sebastian Aho (don't worry, GMTM would never have drafted Aho) were all soon to be taken.

12 minutes ago, TheCerebral1 said:

This the McNabb trade and Lehner trades were far worse. 

Agreed. The McNabb trade was bonkers for the "prize" of a 4th-round Fasching. And I liked Fasching's game a lot.

An issue to keep in consideration was that we had acquired too many assets. You can only have 50 players under contract and so we were going to pool some larger quantities to get fewer items in return, but hopefully collectively of higher quality.

[JoeSchmoe]

22 hours ago, Taro T said:

The Lehner trade, in & of itself, wasn't bad.

There were FA goalies available which could have been had for the same price as Lehner without giving up the pick. That's what makes it so bad.

[Pimlach]

1 hour ago, DarthEbriate said:

This is really it. GMTM was a death by a bunch of paper cuts, not a single move. This trade was about clearing out softness for some grit. We all agreed then we needed it. It was successful in that regard. Bogo had something like 13 hits in his first game with the Sabres. Kane once fought 3 times (and won) in a single game, which was more than Myers or Stafford had done in the previous two years. (In later seasons, Stafford was always good for 1 fight a year so he could point out that he did, in fact, step up to protect his teammates.)

If it isn't this trade, then we move Stafford for a 2nd at the deadline. Myers still has to go for some heaviness/grit because GMTM wanted to be the LA Kings east. Armia wasn't becoming the elite shot he'd been drafted as any time soon. Lemieux, whatever. The 1st could definitely have been useful. Roslovic, Beauvillier, Sebastian Aho (don't worry, GMTM would never have drafted Aho) were all soon to be taken.

Agreed. The McNabb trade was bonkers for the "prize" of a 4th-round Fasching. And I liked Fasching's game a lot.

An issue to keep in consideration was that we had acquired too many assets. You can only have 50 players under contract and so we were going to pool some larger quantities to get fewer items in return, but hopefully collectively of higher quality.

Great post Darth