Who has more trade value: Jack or Sam?

[GASabresIUFAN]

Pros: Jack

Viewed as an elite talent with potential to put up 90 pts If healthy
5 years left on a “reasonable” deal for a No 1. center.
PT a game player.
Excellent speed with good ice vision

Cons:

Not an elite shooter. (Career 10%). Suspect leadership.  

Coming off worst season.  

NMC kicks in in a year.  

Injured neck is a major concern.

Sabres are stuck between his neck injury and his NMC if they really want to move him possibly creating a buyers market.

Reinhart: Pros

Consistent top line producer with possibly more upside.

Coming off best season, where he showed considerable on ice leadership  

One more year of team control (Rfa)

Can play RW or Center.  
Can likely be signed long term in the 7 mill area.

Consistenly good shooter and has high hockey IQ

Healthy

No restrictions as to where we can trade him now or at the deadline.

Cons

Adequate skater

Will need to signed to a long term deal or can walk in a year.  May only want to be out West long term.

I realized when doing this list that if I were a GM acquiring one of these guys I go after Reinhart.  Jack’s injury is a risk I don’t want to take.  While a healthy Jack would have significantly more trade value, I’d say the opposite is the case right now.  
 

 

 

 

 

Edited June 27, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[PerreaultForever]

With all due respect I don't think this is a difficult question.

Jack has much more value but Sam is easier to trade. Regardless of what people like me think of him Sam is prime age and he had a solid end to the season. the perception should be that he is at peak value and other GMs should be thinking all he needs is some good linemates and this guy will totally break out. So he should be easy to trade, but you get more for Jack with only one caveat, and that is the injury. If there is substantially more to that than we know it's a potential problem but I personally don't think it is. I still believe Eichel, or more specifically his agent, is just using the injury disconnect as a pathway to the exit door. 

So Sam should get you a first rounder and a decent player or prospect

Jack should get you a first rounder, 2 really top prospects and maybe more in a roster player and/or cap casualty. 

(Risto gets you a low first rounder if you're lucky, maybe a second. 

Skinner gets you a bag of chips and a coke if you retain salary.) 

[LGR4GM]

Jack Eichel has more value than Samson Reinhart. 

[nfreeman]

Excellent breakdown in the OP.

I think they are probably going to trade both of them, and Eichel will bring more in return.  But the injury discount will bring Eichel's return much closer to Reino's return than would've been the case before last season.

[GASabresIUFAN]

54 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

With all due respect I don't think this is a difficult question.

Jack has much more value but Sam is easier to trade. Regardless of what people like me think of him Sam is prime age and he had a solid end to the season. the perception should be that he is at peak value and other GMs should be thinking all he needs is some good linemates and this guy will totally break out. So he should be easy to trade, but you get more for Jack with only one caveat, and that is the injury. If there is substantially more to that than we know it's a potential problem but I personally don't think it is. I still believe Eichel, or more specifically his agent, is just using the injury disconnect as a pathway to the exit door. 

So Sam should get you a first rounder and a decent player or prospect

Jack should get you a first rounder, 2 really top prospects and maybe more in a roster player and/or cap casualty. 

(Risto gets you a low first rounder if you're lucky, maybe a second. 

Skinner gets you a bag of chips and a coke if you retain salary.) 

Obviously Jack has more value if healthy, but he isn't.  Because of the neck injury and the potentially risky surgery he wants to correct the problem there may a very limited, if any, market for him right now.  This may be a case where he has to have the surgery and comeback healthy for the Sabres to get a good trade back.

Therefore right now I'd say Sam has more current trade value then Jack.  The injury is to much of a wild and a GM who acquires him without proof he can play is asking to lose his job.  Could there be a GM stupid enough to take the risk? Sure.  We had a GM (TM) who loved to acquire injured players at max value, but my guess is idiots of that magnitude are fewer today then a decade ago.

Edited June 27, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[Curt]

It’s Eichel.

When (If?) they are both traded, the return for Eichel will be more.  I feel very confident in this.

Edited June 27, 2021 by Curt

[Weave]

Mincing words a little bit. Jack has more value than Sam, for sure.  However, for multiple reasons it will be easier to het full value in a trade for Sam than it will be for Jack.  Two reasons.  1. Jack does have an injury that adds risk to the trading team and 2. A full value trade for Jack will require several high end assets coming back.  Teams will be reluctant to part with that many high end assets.

In the end I think Jack still returns almost twice the value that Sam will return 

[GASabresIUFAN]

17 hours ago, Weave said:

Mincing words a little bit. Jack has more value than Sam, for sure.  However, for multiple reasons it will be easier to het full value in a trade for Sam than it will be for Jack.  Two reasons.  1. Jack does have an injury that adds risk to the trading team and 2. A full value trade for Jack will require several high end assets coming back.  Teams will be reluctant to part with that many high end assets.

In the end I think Jack still returns almost twice the value that Sam will return 

I think you're going to be sadly underwhelmed by the return for Jack if he is traded.

Edited June 28, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

11 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I think you're going to be sadly underwhelmed by the return for Jack is he is traded.

Sam will probably be moved for roughly the value of 10 OA and 50 OA.

Jack for 3 OA, 15 OA and 50 OA.

Id say about double for Jack is ballpark.

[GASabresIUFAN]

OA?

[dudacek]

4 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

OA?

Overall

[LGR4GM]

40 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Sam will probably be moved for roughly the value of 10 OA and 50 OA.

Jack for 3 OA, 15 OA and 50 OA.

Id say about double for Jack is ballpark.

That's not double. 

[Curt]

5 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

That's not double. 

It’s probably more, no?

[PerreaultForever]

8 hours ago, Weave said:

 1. Jack does have an injury that adds risk to the trading team 

I think any GM would be insane to make the trade without getting a medical clearance of some sort from their team doctors as a condition. 

If there's any doubts or there's a timeline for recovery issue the deal can always be a conditional one like if Eichel starts the season the 2nd round pick becomes a first etc. that sort of thing. In any event, Eichel is worth more this we mostly all agree.

[7+6=13]

In terms of trade value it's Jack and not close.  Jack's term alone will dictate that.

If phrased without "trade" in value I think it's Sam.  The team that gets Sam will give up less, try to sign him for 6.5-7 and they'll end up with more value.  Sam will consistently produce and be available.   

Of the approximate 20 players making 10 mil or more,  Jack is near the bottom of that chart for value IMO.  I think it's possible that he's benefitted from being on the Sabres in terms of points.  If asked to be more efficient and structured,  he may produce less and I don't believe he'll ever provide leadership. 

I could definitely see a team having buyers remorse with Jack and the team that acquiring Sam won't.   So in those terms I'd say Sam will have more value in the future. 

Edited June 28, 2021 by 7+6=13
Spelling

[sabrefanday1]

Of course Jack would fetch more IF healthy but will any team take the chance with his health so uncertain?  One of Sam's greatest assets is his ability to stay relatively healthy year-after-year. I do agree that any trade will almost certainly leave most (if not all) Sabre fans greatly disappointed. Ditto for Sam too. We will not get back enough to come close to replacing Sam's numbers last year and a healthy Jack's numbers as well.  I am still not convinced either will be traded. Jack is signed and maybe Sam is not as discontented as some think (or maybe that is just wishful thinking as IO prefer to keep a happy Sam signed for another 5 years and a healthy Jack).

[LGR4GM]

9 hours ago, Curt said:

It’s probably more, no?

3oa is worth more than 10oa and 50th oa. You would need another pick in the late teens or early 20s but even then, math says 3oa is very valuable. 

[JohnC]

16 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I think you're going to be sadly underwhelmed by the return for Jack is he is traded.

I'm don't think you intended it but you are making a compelling argument to keep Jack even if it is only for the short term. The hope is that he regains his health and is able to exhibit his extraordinary physical talents. Whether it is for our long term benefit or turns out to be a showcase situation where his maximum value is marketed.  

It's not difficult to understand why the GM wants to make a Jack trade and start afresh. However, while it is clear that Jack is frustrated with the situation he is in that doesn't mean that he is a negative influence in the locker room. By getting him back to health you are in a better situation whether you keep him or move him when his value has been restored. What it comes down to is what is the best course to take with this major asset.

If the Sabres can come away in a trade with a 1C young player talent and a high draft pick then I have little reservations about a trade. But if the return is not near the value going out then the wisest course might be to show more patience. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

I think the structure of a deal for both players is similar.  There will be 3 assets in each deal, one pick, one young player (or near ready prospect) and one cap casualty. Let’s hope that the cap casualty has some life in him such as a goalie or stay at home D.

There is a chance we could get a quality player back in his prime like a Tkachuk or Gadreau, but I think more hockey type deals are unlikely.  

I also think most here are over valuing Jack because of his injury. Cars with significant accident history don’t sell as well and must be discounted.

I also think there is a strong comparison between  Sam and ROR at the time we acquired him.  Sam’s move to center helps that comparison.  Their PT production is similar, both centers and both would be UFAs in a year. ROR was worth more because of his established experience as a 2 way center, but he also had a reputation of being difficult to work with.

 

15 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I'm don't think you intended it but you are making a compelling argument to keep Jack even if it is only for the short term. The hope is that he regains his health and is able to exhibit his extraordinary physical talents. Whether it is for our long term benefit or turns out to be a showcase situation where his maximum value is marketed.  

It's not difficult to understand why the GM wants to make a Jack trade and start afresh. However, while it is clear that Jack is frustrated with the situation he is in that doesn't mean that he is a negative influence in the locker room. By getting him back to health you are in a better situation whether you keep him or move him when his value has been restored. What it comes down to is what is the best course to take with this major asset.

If the Sabres can come away in a trade with a 1C young player talent and a high draft pick then I have little reservations about a trade. But if the return is not near the value going out then the wisest course might be to show more patience. 

I fully intended to imply we may need to keep and play Jack next season to maximize his value. I even wrote this up thread.

Edited June 28, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I think the structure of a deal for both players is similar.  There will be 3 assets in each deal, one pick, one young player (or near ready prospect) and one cap casualty. Let’s hope that the cap casualty has some life in him such as a goalie or stay at home D.

There is a chance we could get a quality player back in his prime like a Tkachuk or Gadreau, but I think more hockey type deals are unlikely.  

I also think most here are over valuing Jack because of his injury. Cars with significant accident history don’t sell as well and must be discounted.

I also think there is a strong comparison between  Sam and ROR at the time we acquired him.  Sam’s move to center helps that comparison.  Their PT production is similar, both centers and both would be UFAs in a year. ROR was worth more because of his established experience as a 2 way center, but he also had a reputation of being difficult to work with.

 

I fully intended to imply we may need to keep and play Jack next to maximize his value.

Yea, because there are 100 other cars that are exactly the same without an injury history. This would be more like if you had a 1 of a kind McLaren, sure it might be worth less because it was in an accident but that's not the same as Bob's Ford Escape that was in an accident. 

[Thorny]

Reinhart is not *close* to the player Eichel is. They aren't even in the same universe - by most accounts this was Reinhart's best season, and the common perception is that the 21 games Eichel played were the worst or his career - AND he was significantly injured. Even with all of that, Jack paced for 9 more points over a full season even in those circumstances - he played *33* games less than Reinhart and had more assists. Yes Jack is hurt, but the fact that a hurt Jack is still better than a Reinhart at his best, shows you the chasm between the two on ice, and it's why even hurt, Jack's return will be significantly more. 

Over their careers to date, Eichel has averaged almost 50% more production per game than Reinhart - 25 points over an 82 game season (78 vs 53). Even after taking into account injuries, Eichel has double-digit point increase over Sam on a per season basis - and Sam isn't making anything up in other areas. 

Eichel takes over games, Sam cannot. Teams have to gameplan for Eichel, teams do not gameplan for Sam. If a team is ponying up a significant package for Eichel, at all, they are going to be reasonably confident in him regaining health or they wouldn't make the deal - a team like Anaheim isn't going to be thinking, "well, we have no idea if he'll ever be healthy, so take Zegras off the table, but still give up a 3rd overall pick, a solid prospect and a good young roster player." When's the last time a pick that high was traded? And for an injured player? 

Anyone trading for Jack is going to already have talked themselves into him being ok. 

Edited June 28, 2021 by Thorny

[Thorny]

28 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I think the structure of a deal for both players is similar.  There will be 3 assets in each deal, one pick, one young player (or near ready prospect) and one cap casualty. Let’s hope that the cap casualty has some life in him such as a goalie or stay at home D.

There is a chance we could get a quality player back in his prime like a Tkachuk or Gadreau, but I think more hockey type deals are unlikely.  

I also think most here are over valuing Jack because of his injury. Cars with significant accident history don’t sell as well and must be discounted.

I also think there is a strong comparison between  Sam and ROR at the time we acquired him.  Sam’s move to center helps that comparison.  Their PT production is similar, both centers and both would be UFAs in a year. ROR was worth more because of his established experience as a 2 way center, but he also had a reputation of being difficult to work with.

 

I fully intended to imply we may need to keep and play Jack next season to maximize his value. I even wrote this up thread.

Reinhart and ROR are not comparable defensively. ROR is a selke nominated defensive forward. This thread is a bit bonkers, no offense 

Never mind the fact ROR developed into a point a game guy. Don't see that from Sam. 

[LGR4GM]

8 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Reinhart and ROR are not comparable defensively. ROR is a selke nominated defensive forward. This thread is a bit bonkers, no offense 

Never mind the fact ROR developed into a point a game guy. Don't see that from Sam. 

Fully agree and I love Sam but he's not close to ROR. 

[JohnC]

12 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Fully agree and I love Sam but he's not close to ROR. 

The more I think about the ROR trade and the return the more I want to blow my top. I don't care who the GM is not every trade deal or transaction is going to work out. But even with a deal that doesn't work out that doesn't mean that it has to more than marginally set you back. The ROR trade is emblematic of how badly run this franchise has been since the Pegula takeover. When there is little thought and coherency to the operation you get sustained failure. 

[Buffalonill]

The fact we're trading our franchise player is just so unreal to me so depressing.