2021 NHL Draft Rankings

[Thorny]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I don't agree with what you are laying down here. My understanding of drafts in 2014 is significantly lower than today. 

The Sabres took Quinn over Rossi last year. A lot of ppl have criticized that pick but that is because there was a clear talent difference that was born out on tape and in the numbers. Power's is being ranked 1st because he is 6'6" and I know that because EVERYONE who puts him 1st mentions his size as part of the criteria. Hence why I call it the Logan Stanely rule. I like Power, he is good but Luke Hughes will probably be better in the end. (just looking at defenders for comparison) 

I don't really care if you agree, it's a fact that GM's get let off the hook because they took the consensus guy

[LGR4GM]

Just now, Thorny said:

I don't really care if you agree, it's a fact that GM's get let off the hook because they took the consensus guy

Murray get's let off the hook because he didn't take Bennett. 

3 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

Can anyone give us the lowdown on Lysell? People are all over the place with his ranking, from top 5 to late 1st to everything in between.

remind me when I get back

[Thorny]

You have to use the Quinn selection in the right context - 

If we picked Rossi or Perfetti, both ranked higher, and Quinn ended up better, would Adams take as much heat as he will, now, if his off the board pick (Quinn) doesn't end up as good?

He will absolutely get more torched for taking a player that's perceived to be ranked lower than where the pick was

Edited April 23, 2021 by Thorny

[Thorny]

Take Rossi, and Quinn ends up better? People will say "Oh well". I know you know that

Take Quinn, and Rossi ends up better? "What were you thinking?!"

[Crusader1969]

44 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

 

Love that all 3 of the top forwards are known for their work rate. Still like the Size of Beniers and Guenther over Eklund considering the Sabres current roster composition.

That .being said, Eklund seems to bring both skill and feisty play.

[Buffalonill]

11 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Take Rossi, and Quinn ends up better? People will say "Oh well". I know you know that

Take Quinn, and Rossi ends up better? "What were you thinking?!"

You just take the L and move on aka 

Draisaitl

[Weave]

18 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I don't agree with what you are laying down here. My understanding of drafts in 2014 is significantly lower than today. 

The Sabres took Quinn over Rossi last year. A lot of ppl have criticized that pick but that is because there was a clear talent difference that was born out on tape and in the numbers. Taking Quinn was a big gamble because Rossie and Lundell both had the math and the tape to back that up. I think this year things are far less clear. 

Power's is being ranked 1st because he is 6'6" and I know that because EVERYONE who puts him 1st mentions his size as part of the criteria. Hence why I call it the Logan Stanely rule. I like Power, he is good but Luke Hughes will probably be better in the end. (just looking at defenders for comparison) 

Why wouldn’t they mention his size? If the skill is there, size is an advantage. It’s weird that someone would disregard that attribute if they have the other needed attributes as well.

[Crusader1969]

24 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Human beings, and all that. "BPA" is a thing in terms of how GMs are, I'd go so far as to say, expected to pick. The idea that you pick the player you adjudge to be the most talented, *regardless of position*. It's not some wishy-washy "well every team has it's own list" - of course they do - but you are "supposed" to sort it irrespective to position. 

It's why I was saying a few weeks ago that it would be interesting for us to get 1 overall, and then pick a guy, say Beniers, who's usually ranked 3/4 - it just doesn't usually happen. If a guy tops the majority of the lists, that's the guy who goes first. Sometimes, rarely tbh, there's a "hischier or Patrick" year, but even this year it's not "Power/Beniers"

How often does Murray get torched for taking Reinhart over Draisaitl? Far, far less than you torch his other picks, later in the drafts - "Well, Reinhart was the guy ranked above at the time" is a get out of jail free card to a large extent. 

If a GM takes Power, they either get a really good player, or "well, he was ranked first, can't blame him". They are human. The GMs want to be employed. 

If a GM take Beniers at 1, they either get a really good player, or a "what the hell were you thinking?"

It's hard to not take the top ranked guy. 

I think Adams would need to worry about the fans reaction over fellow GM's.  Though I doubt he worries about either

[Thorny]

3 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

You just take the L and move on aka 

Draisaitl

But this is not how the reaction at large would unfold

People let go of the Reinhart thing more readily because a GM is given the benefit of the doubt, especially with the draft - based on the context of how the available information appeared at the time

1 minute ago, Crusader1969 said:

I think Adams would need to worry about the fans reaction over fellow GM's.  Though I doubt he worries about either

I know that, but I've read more about Quinn over Rossi being a terrible pick, in a few months, than I've read about Murray being slammed for passing up on Draisaitl, in 7 years.

I know @dudacekcan attest to the feelings towards the Quinn pick

[Buffalonill]

25 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

Can anyone give us the lowdown on Lysell? People are all over the place with his ranking, from top 5 to late 1st to everything in between.

 He plays very similar to Raymond he's the wild card in this draft to get picked early 

[Thorny]

There is inherently less risk in terms of how you will be perceived if you go along with the crowd

Such is the case in anything 

Edited April 23, 2021 by Thorny

[Buffalonill]

3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

 

Did anyone miss 0:26 

 

[Crusader1969]

8 minutes ago, Thorny said:

But this is not how the reaction at large would unfold

People let go of the Reinhart thing more readily because a GM is given the benefit of the doubt, especially with the draft - based on the context of how the available information appeared at the time

I know that, but I've read more about Quinn over Rossi being a terrible pick, in a few months, than I've read about Murray being slammed for passing up on Draisaitl, in 7 years.

I know @dudacekcan attest to the feelings towards the Quinn pick

I don't think anyone should slam Murray for Reinhart over Draisaitl - there was no telling that Draisaitl would turn into one of the top players in the league at that time.  

Im thinking you can't find one GM in the league where you can't say " he shoulda taken that guy"  Its the nature of the draft, especially when you are drafting 18 year olds.

Even with Quinn, its way too early to say "he shoulda taken Rossi". 

 

 

8 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

Did anyone miss 0:26 

 

Battle of the Dylans   Good strength and awareness by the younger Dylan

[Thorny]

13 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

I don't think anyone should slam Murray for Reinhart over Draisaitl - there was no telling that Draisaitl would turn into one of the top players in the league at that time.  

Im thinking you can't find one GM in the league where you can't say " he shoulda taken that guy"  Its the nature of the draft, especially when you are drafting 18 year olds.

Even with Quinn, its way too early to say "he shoulda taken Rossi". 

 

 

Battle of the Dylans   Good strength and awareness by the younger Dylan

 ..........The point I am making is rooted in that "there's no telling", and "at that time" - the only reason people are flippant about it is because we took a guy who was ranked higher by consensus. 

The "at the time" is EXACTLY what I am saying gives the GMs the added bumper - a GM will take more flack for taking a lower ranked player, if they don't reach the level of the guy people were saying they "should" have taken, as there IS NO hindsight benefit afforded in that case. 

They will have failed the selection both in the present day, AND by the mark of how things looked at the time, if the player doesn't pan out

If you take the higher ranked player, you can't fail in the avenue of "how things looked at the time", only future results. You'll always have the oft-used "hindsight is 20/20" argument on your side

And hindsight is definitely, assuredly used as a defense, I don't think that's a point I need to defend or argue, it's a fact that it's thrown around often as a mitigating factor

Edited April 23, 2021 by Thorny

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

You have to use the Quinn selection in the right context - 

If we picked Rossi or Perfetti, both ranked higher, and Quinn ended up better, would Adams take as much heat as he will, now, if his off the board pick (Quinn) doesn't end up as good?

He will absolutely get more torched for taking a player that's perceived to be ranked lower than where the pick was

If Quinn ends up better (he's got a chance) then it makes Adams look really smart. Your problem is that you are trying to compare a static draft list to years worth of evidence. I wish we took Draisaitl now and wish the Sabres had. Tim Murray did a lot of other things really bad and so his 2014 draft gets forgotten. What is more interesting is all the 2nd round picks he completely failed on. 

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Take Rossi, and Quinn ends up better? People will say "Oh well". I know you know that

Take Quinn, and Rossi ends up better? "What were you thinking?!"

Can I be honest? I don't actually care. It's all hindsight and on a message board we deal in that and critiquing mistakes. We are softer on mistakes we ourselves would have also made. 

[Thorny]

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

If Quinn ends up better (he's got a chance) then it makes Adams look really smart. Your problem is that you are trying to compare a static draft list to years worth of evidence. I wish we took Draisaitl now and wish the Sabres had. Tim Murray did a lot of other things really bad and so his 2014 draft gets forgotten. What is more interesting is all the 2nd round picks he completely failed on. 

Can I be honest? I don't actually care. It's all hindsight and on a message board we deal in that and critiquing mistakes. We are softer on mistakes we ourselves would have also made. 

All the years worth of evidence says is that the guy ranked 1 goes 1

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Flashsabre said:

Can anyone give us the lowdown on Lysell? People are all over the place with his ranking, from top 5 to late 1st to everything in between.

Okay so Lysell might be the fastest skater in this class. He goes from 0 to 100 in maybe 2 strides. He's all over the map for a couple of reasons but none more so than he played in the SHL as an 18 year old and only looked okay. It is the same thing going on with Raty in Finland where playing up a league doesn't necessarily help you for drafting purposes. Lysell has a lot of skating and puck skills that look fun but idk how transferrable some of it will be. I think he is ranked all over because others have that same question but I would guess he gets taken somewhere in the 8-14 range. 

[Thorny]

You find me a draft where a player generally ranked 3/4 went first overall, then divide that by the amount of drafts that have taken place in a 10-20 year period surrounding that pick, and that'll tell you the expected likelihood of Beniers going 1st overall this year should these lists hold

If Beniers is ranked 3/4, he ain't going 1st overall. That's all I'm saying 

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

All the years worth of evidence says is that the guy ranked 1 goes 1

Yup, whoever does the TSN list was correct on picks 1 and 2 going back to 2013 I think. The only exception was 2020 where 2 and 3 were flipped. The TSN list is a good indicator but it is doesn't make it a lock even if in the last 7 years they have gotten 1 and 2 correct in every draft. 

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

You find me a draft where a player generally ranked 3/4 went first overall, then divide that by the amount of drafts that have taken place in a 10-20 year period surrounding that pick, and that'll tell you the expected likelihood of Beniers going 1st overall this year should these lists hold

If Beniers is ranked 3/4, he ain't going 1st overall. That's all I'm saying 

And all I am trying to tell you is that if the Sabres draft 1st, they aren't guaranteed to take ANOTHER left handed defender. We don't know what their list looks like and it just takes one team to go off list, see Detroit and Seider

[Thorny]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

Yup, whoever does the TSN list was correct on picks 1 and 2 going back to 2013 I think. The only exception was 2020 where 2 and 3 were flipped. The TSN list is a good indicator but it is doesn't make it a lock even if in the last 7 years they have gotten 1 and 2 correct in every draft. 

I can't think of one year a guy ranked generally in the 3-4 range went 1. Teams just don't do it. 

I don't want Power, I want Beniers or whatever as I trust your scouting - it just isn't going to happen if we pick 1. That's why I said I kinda hope we don't get 1 overall

Unless we trade down. But guess what teams don't do that either

[LGR4GM]

Just now, Thorny said:

I can't think of one year a guy ranked generally in the 3-4 range went 1. Teams just don't do it. 

I don't want Power, I want Beniers or whatever as I trust your scouting - it just isn't going to happen if we pick 1. That's why I said I kinda hope we don't get 1 overall

That isn't how it works even if that is how it has gone. Especially in this draft with covid. This draft was already wishy washy and we've added covid to it making it a crapshoot. 

[Thorny]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

That isn't how it works even if that is how it has gone. Especially in this draft with covid. This draft was already wishy washy and we've added covid to it making it a crapshoot. 

Of course how it's gone is how it works

that's just observing the data scientifically

A clear statistical trend is a clear statistical trend. The chances of that happening randomly is just not worth considering 

Edited April 23, 2021 by Thorny

[Thorny]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

That isn't how it works even if that is how it has gone. Especially in this draft with covid. This draft was already wishy washy and we've added covid to it making it a crapshoot. 

To your point, the year could be an anomaly, but the reason the term "anomaly" is used is because it's so uncommon. 

Covid is uncommon, though. I guess we'll see. But if there's 1 guy sitting at the top of most lists, I'm not sure the extracurricular factors will have much of a chance to show up 

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Of course how it's gone is how it works

that's just observing the data scientifically

A clear statistical trend is a clear statistical trend. The chances of that happening randomly is just not worth considering 

7 is a small sample and it does not factor in Covid. 

Just now, Thorny said:

To your point, the year could be an anomaly, but the reason the term "anomaly" is used is because it's so uncommon. 

Covid is uncommon, though. I guess we'll see. But if there's 1 guy sitting at the top of most lists, I'm not sure the extracurricular factors will have much of a chance to show up 

It does not matter though if Power is at the top of "most" lists. It only matters who is at the top of the Sabres list. 

[Flashsabre]

The problem is that drafting is an inexact science in all sports.  It is easy to look back 5 years later and say that guy turned out and that guy didn’t but at the time you don’t know.  When Tampa takes Point in the 3rd round they have no idea that he is going to turn out to be a star. Detroit admitted when they took Datsyuk late they had no knowledge he would turn into a superstar, it was a just a player they like that late on the board.

 

If most scouts are consensus that Power is the top pick for the draft then he will go 1st. No one will know for years how that works out, be it development, injuries, the coaching he receives.  Each player in every draft is an individual, you can’t say “he reminds me of this guy so he will bust or he reminds me of this guy so he will be a star”